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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 6:53:30 GMT -5
Matt, I'm confused. (Not that it takes much to confuse me!) You have said that you saw making a Qualifying Offer to Anthony DeSclafani as a win/win situation. Then you said you had no idea why the Giants re-signed him. Don't those two statements conflict? If you thought Anthony was worth $18.4 million for 2022 alone, don't you think he is easily worth $17.6 million for the two seasons after that? Rarely if ever do we see a contract that goes $18.4 million, $8.8 million, $8.8 million over three seasons. As for why the Giants re-signed Anthony, I think it was to have a solid #2 starter behind Logan Webb.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 6:57:44 GMT -5
For all the downgrading of DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb for supposedly having to babied for innings, did we know that only four pitchers pitched 162 or more innings and averaged more than 6.04 innings per start? That only one pitcher averaged as much as six and a half innings per start?
Are we still evaluating pitchers based on the old baseball game, not the new?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 7:12:37 GMT -5
Looked at another way, I believe that DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb each averaged more innings per start than the average starter in postseason games.
Let me ask this question: Would we rather have a starter who averages 5.0 innings with a 3.60 ERA or one who averages 6.0 innings with a 4.50 ERA? A starter who averages 5.0 innings with a 3.00 ERA or one who averages 6.0 innings with a 4.00 ERA?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 7:20:50 GMT -5
Another question: Luis Castillo is considered a pretty good starting pitcher. I think we'd be happy if the Giants could trade for him without giving up an arm and a leg.
Last season Luis made two more starts than Anthony DeSclafani, and he pitched 20 more innings. He also gave up 24 more earned runs. Would we rather have had Castillo last season or DeSclafani? I myself would have preferred DeSclafani.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 7:29:24 GMT -5
Last season there were only nine pitchers who pitched as many innings as Anthony DeSclafani and had an ERA as low as Anthony's. No pitcher threw more complete game shutouts. And whereas several of last season's complete game shutout jobs were 7-innings jobs that came in double headers, both of Anthony's were 9-inning games. Anthony had two of the 50 complete games in the major leagues last season. Only six TEAMS had more complete games than Anthony had alone.
Perhaps he wasn't babied TOO much when it came to innings pitched.
Anthony was efficient in his two complete game shutouts, throwing just 100 and 103 pitches.
Are we underrating Anthony DeSclafani here?
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 9, 2021 11:32:36 GMT -5
I may be underrating what Desclafani did last season, but the 3 year contract is likely overrating what he's done in his career.
I never said Desclafani didn't have a good season this year. When I say he's not a frontline starter I'm looking at his whole career, not just last season. When I said making the qualifying offer to Desclafani was a win-win situation, I was considering two scenarios. 1. he accepts the offer and we have him for one more season to see what he does, or 2. he signs elsewhere and we get a compensation pick. Both of those scenarios make sense to me, because I still see the Giants as a team that is planning more for the future, so the pick is beneficial. Or with the QO he's in a position to pitch for a multiyear contract, which has been a good scenario for the Giants. Last year Gausman, Wood and Desclafani were pitching for a contract, and they all pitched well. I believe Zaidi was willing to let Desclafani walk if they landed one of their more desired targets like Robbie Ray, but they were unable to do so, which made signing Dedclafani a priority.
I'm a little surprised Desclafani declined the QO. The qualifying offer for next season was considerably more than what he'll be getting paid next season in his new contract. It's like Desclafani chose security over the next 3 seasons rather than having one season to prove he's worth a bigger contract. That tells me Desclafani is about as confident as I am in his ability to maintain his success that he saw in 2021.
To me Zaidi signing Desclafani to a 3 year deal after 1 good season seems out of character for Zaidi, because it is. Zaidi's plan A was to get Desclafani on the 1 year offer. After Desclafani rejected that (which I believe was a surprise to Zaidi) plan B was introduced. Zaidi started looking at Ray and perhaps Verlander. When that fell apart he went back to Desclafani with the contract. I'm not sure if that's exactly how it went down, but that's how it appeared to me.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 9, 2021 13:27:49 GMT -5
Though I am glad we signed him, that's what I was thinking, too.
He only had that one good season, other than that he was just a so-so pitcher.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 14:33:49 GMT -5
First of all, I want to thank you, Boly, for your logic and you particularly, Matt, for your analysis. But I'd like to point out some facts that get in the way.
First, Matt, Anthony didn't turn down a Qualifying Offer, at least not officially. The Giants didn't extend him one. Someone (likely Reeder, since he has a lot of information) mentioned that the Giants had been negotiating with Anthony since the middle of the season. As you and I agreed, extending a QO to Anthony seemed like a win (sign him for 1/$18.4 million)/win(have someone else sign him and receive compensation). I wondered here at the time what I was missing, and based on their answers, apparently no one else was sure either.
After they signed him and Reeder (?) said they had been negotiating since midseason, I realized what it likely was. The primary goal of BOTH the Giants and Anthony was to go longer than one year. Farhan is prudent, so he was likely looking for two year then a chance to re-evaluate and hopefully go another two (indicating that Anthony was both healthy and sucjcessful). Anthony likely wanted a third year for added security. They likely kicked around things from two years at a higher Average Annual Value to two years plus an option to three years at a lower AAV, and it appears they settled on the last.
You and I agree that it would have been a good business decision for the Giants to offer the QO. But isn't the deal they wound up with even better? The risk with the QO would have been that Anthony continued on to another very good season in 2022, which would probably have put him in line to receive something like 2/$48 or 3/$60. (He was projected by MLG Trade Rumors to get 3/$42 THIS time around. Another good season would have given him three good full seasons in a row (more on that later) and five good seasons over his career. If the Giants had made the QO, Anthony could have gambled on himself and perhaps turned it into 3/$66.4 or 4/$78.4 by becoming a free agent again next year.
And what would have been his downside? Absolute worst case, he might have become injured and had to settle for something like a 1/$5 million contract next year. Let's suppose he only stayed reasonably healthy and pitched to his career ERA prior to last season, which was somewhere around 4.25, or right around a #3 starter. That would likely have limited him to something like 2/$15 or 2/$20 -- basically what he'll be making with the Giants in exceed of the $18.4 million he would have earned with the QO. So the Giants got Anthony for the second and third years for what is likely a reasonable worst-case salary (for Anthony).
So Anthony got the three-year security he appears to have wanted with the team he appears to have wanted. And the Giants appear to have gotten somewhere between a reasonable contact and a true steal.
The second point you guys made was that Anthony had only one good season. Actually, he was good in BOTH his last two full seasons (2019 and 2021). According to Fan Graphs, he was worth nearly $45 million in those two seasons alone. In his last two full seasons, Anthony outpitched his new three-year contract by close to $9 million, per Fan Graphs.
Fan Graphs also sees Anthony as having had good seasons in 2015 ($25 million) and 2016 ($17 million). Let's not forget that Anthony was pitching in a notorious hitters' park in Cincinnati. While Anthony's ERA was just over four in 2015, he pitched over 180 innings and had a 3.00 ERA on the road.
Finally, I don't think anyone is complaining about Alex Cobb's contract in comparison to Anthony's. I had Alex as my top value pick even before he was signed. Alex is three years older than Anthony, yet he signed a contract for 2/$20. If Anthony pitches well for the Giants and stays healthy, three years from now he might be able to sign a contract bigger than the one Alex just signed at the age Anthony will be then. Heck, if he had received and signed a Qualifying Offer, he might have earned between $50 and $100 million before he retired.
On the other hand, he could have become injured and been gambling after the QO. Anthony was apparently happy with the 3/$36, and the Giants should be ecstatic. If Anthony pitches the way he's pitched his last two full seasons for the entirety of the next three seasons, the Giants could well received double their money in value.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 10, 2021 10:53:18 GMT -5
oops, yeah I had forgotten Desclafani didn't get a qualifying offer..that was an odd move from Zaidi, and again out of character for him.
Just so we're clear, I'm not upset with the monetary value of Desclafani's contract, 12 million is a bargain for even a #4. The amount the Giants want to pay players doesn't really matter to me at this point because it's clear we're not going to be very active in the free agent market. What I'm focused on is in a few years we'll have some arms that will be ready for the big leagues, and I don't want Desclafani's 3 year contract to muddy the waters when it's time to allow youth to take over. Just this last season Cueto's contract was blocking Logan Webb from getting his shot, and as we found out, Logan Webb was more than ready.
I've been very pleased with Zaidi thus far, but even though his approach to being the GM is considered a fresh new way to look at making up a roster, he's also making some of the mistakes that old school GMs made. He's allowing contracts to dictate the roster, not talent. I'd like to see Zaidi be quicker at releasing players that become a hinderance to the youth movement. I see Desclafani's 3 year deal as a possible log jam situation in the near future. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
That, and I simply don't see Desclafani as a frontline starter, he may have had a good season and we may have gotten him for cheap, but how many frontline starters make 12 mil a season?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 10, 2021 11:39:28 GMT -5
When Zaidi first came to the Giants, he was impressed by the sendoff the fans gave Hunter Pence got when he left the Giants the first time. At That point, he felt it was important to maintain continuity using legacy players. He went too far in that direction when he brought back Pence and Sandoval when it was pretty clear they were done. As far as Desclafani's contract goes, three years seems about right. I think youth should eventually take over but starting pitching is one of the weak areas of the organization and the talent is still at the lower levels. Desclafani for three years isn't like the Cueto or Samarzdija deals in terms of length or dollars and they probably needed to add the third year to get it done, which seems to be standard for most of these FA deals nowadays. Also, I have a feeling that if the Giants had signed Strohman or Ray or even Gausman, they would have had that logjam starting at about 2024.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 16:24:47 GMT -5
Bringing back Pence and Sandoval didn't work well on the field, but it may have contributed to the beginning of chemistry in the Farhan era. DeSclafani's contract at $36 million is a puddle in the bucket compared to the $222 spent on Cueto and Samardzija. Speaking of which, while DeSclafani as a #2 doesn't compare to the ace-like nature of Cueto, he's probably reasonably comparable to Samardzija.
In fact, when the Giants signed Jeff, he had 8.6 WAR in 8 seasons and was coming off a 0.3 WAR season, according to Baseball-Reference. Anthony has 10.4 WAR in 7 seasons and is coming off 4.1 WAR. Anthony is a year older than Jeff was. If not for the ages, one might think the contracts would be reversed.
I think Farhan might have gone for Cueto, although the sixth season would have been an obstacle. I feel pretty strongly that he wouldn't have gone for Jeff, just as Matt and I wouldn't have.
When we see how Anthony's accomplishments compare to Jeff's and compare the contracts, we should feel ecstatic. Remember too that Jeff's contract was six years ago. In today's market, it might have reached $100 million.
Even had the Giants signed one of the five-year guys, they weren't likely to develop a logjam in 2024. Webb and DeSclafani are the only two sure starters under team control in 2024. Figure two guys up from the farm and another free agent or trade addition by then.
Despite the shortened 2020 season, Fan Graphs says that Anthony has been worth more the past three seasons than his contract cost.
The Giants spent just over $80 million on pitching this winter, and they appear to have gotten a LOT for their money. I think it's reasonable that they could get at least half again the value of the money they spent, and in a best-case scenario, they might even double their money. At the bottom end, they might not even get their money back, but that seems unlikely. Remember, per Fan Graphs, the three guys were worth $64 million last season alone. It's probably too much to expect (although not impossible) for the three guys to pitch as well over their new contracts as they pitched this season, but if they did so, they will have returned $152 million for the $81 million investment. Do we think that Ray or Gausman will return that much for their respective $115 million and $110 investments?
The closer I look at the pitching investment the Giants made this winter, the better it looks. In fact, I think there is a good chance that the trio will return more on the Giants' $81 million investment than they earned from their $212 investment in Cueto and Samardzija. According to Fan Graphs, the Giants received $122 worth of value from those investments, a loss of $90 million.
It is virtually impossible the Giants will lose more money on their new trio than they lost on Johnny and Jeff. And it's quite possible they will get more out of their $81 investment than they received back on their investment on close to three times that much six years ago.
The Giants won three World Series with the guys who spent $212 on Cueto and Samardzija. Think what they have the possibility of doing with the guys who spent $81 on DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb. Especially with a much better farm system than they had after that first championship. They won that first championship BECAUSE of the young players from the farm system. They won 107 games last season almost without any.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 10, 2021 16:51:38 GMT -5
The Samardzija signing happened in part because the Giants were jilted by Greinke and I think they felt the need to do something.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 10, 2021 16:53:21 GMT -5
Also, if the Giants look like they are pinching pennies, remember that they took a big financial hit last year. I googled it and it was $64mm. Dodgers lost $112mm. Cuts are not necessarily only on the baseball side. I heard that they were lowballing concession vendors and closing Giants Dugout stores. Stands to reason that they have been doing some internal penny pinching, also. I would not be surprised if they do not get close to the competitive balance level. I don't believe these money manager type owners will just write off the money and will probably try to recoup these losses over the next few years.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 10, 2021 19:49:29 GMT -5
Rog- The Giants won three World Series with the guys who spent $212 on Cueto and Samardzija. Think what they have the possibility of doing with the guys who spent $81 on DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb. Especially with a much better farm system than they had after that first championship.
Boagie- The Giants failed with the acquisitions of Cueto and Samardjiza, not because of the money, but because they expected Cueto and Samardjiza to be frontline pitchers. This is the same worry I have for Cobb, Wood and Desclafani.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 22:08:52 GMT -5
I made a slight mistake. Actually, the Giants spent $222 million on Cueto and Samardzija.
MY personal belief is that the Giants would have gotten their money out of Cueto if he hadn't gotten injured. The first year of his contract, his only healthy season under the pact, he was worth $39 million per Fan Graphs, nearly twice his $22 million Average Annual Value. He had been a durable pitcher to that point, even leading the National League in innings in 2014. One could have argued at the point of his signing that over the previous six seasons he had been the second-best starter in the majors, behind only Clayton Kershaw.
Samardzija though was an overreach IMO. Let's put it this way. Matt is worried that the Giants overpaid for the trio of DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb. Yet the Giants paid only $81 million for that trio compared to $90 million for Samardzija alone. Fan Graphs valued Jeff at all of 7.8 WAR over his eight year career to the point of the signing. Fan Graphs valued Jeff at all of 8.6 WAR over his eight year career at the time of his signing, while they valued Anthony and the two Alex's at 8.1 WAR last season alone.
Would we say the risk of signing 8.1 WAR in one season alone for $81 million was less risk than spending $90 million for 8.6 WAR accumulated over eight seasons?
What are you guys afraid of? As with any signing, there are no guarantees, but the risk/reward ratio seems several times better than the signing of Samardzija. Matt, you and I were both right when we disagreed with signing Samardzija. This time we disagree, and the odds strongly favor the Giants.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 22:14:13 GMT -5
As an aside, Fan Graphs has Greinke as worth $150 million of the $206.5 the Diamondbacks paid him. The Diamondbacks wound up trading Zack at the 2019 trade deadline, which turned out to be a good move even though they picked up $24 million of his remaining contract. I suspect the Giants would have traded Cueto and Samardzija if they had been healthy.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 22:15:37 GMT -5
Hadn't seen the large losses for the Giants and Dodgers last season. Was that 2020 or 2021? I suspect they may have lost money in each season.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 22:19:22 GMT -5
Let me ask Matt a question: You are afraid the Giants overpaid for the trio. How highly do you value the threesome, and how did you arrive at that value? Which other players would you have preferred the Giants sign at this point, and how do you see the value of those players compared to the cost? Remember too that the Giants may have had to pay MORE than the players received.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 10, 2021 22:31:23 GMT -5
Here is something positive to think about. One of the things the players are shooting for is to become eligible for free agency earlier. They are said to be shooting for free agency after three seasons, which is half the present requirement. Let's suppose though that the two sides agree to reduce the timeframe to five years, or perhaps to 5.5 years of service, then down to 5.
The result would be that there would be more free agents. Free agent price is settled by supply and demand. An increase in the supply of free agents would drop their price. Would it not be a good thing if the Giants were poised to take advantage?
Another offshoot would be that more players would be available at the trade deadline, dropping the trading price.
Are those things guaranteed to happen? Certainly not. But the Giants have positioned themselves well for next season without spending a lot to do so. If things don't change, they still have money to spend and prospects to trade. If they do change, the Giants should be ready to strike.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 11, 2021 2:35:14 GMT -5
Hadn't seen the large losses for the Giants and Dodgers last season. Was that 2020 or 2021? I suspect they may have lost money in each season. 2020
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 11, 2021 3:34:30 GMT -5
Rog - Let me ask Matt a question: You are afraid the Giants overpaid for the trio. How highly do you value the threesome, and how did you arrive at that value? Which other players would you have preferred the Giants sign at this point, and how do you see the value of those players compared to the cost? Remember too that the Giants may have had to pay MORE than the players received.
Boagie - I have said many times that the value doesn't bother me, it's the length of Desclafani's contract that I'm not a fan of.
Since you clearly don't pay attention to what I say, why should I answer any of your questions?
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 11, 2021 10:00:41 GMT -5
Bingo!
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Post by reedonly on Dec 11, 2021 11:26:23 GMT -5
I believe this horse has been beaten to death. Hopefully, this topic won't still be around when the halls are decked.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 11, 2021 11:37:00 GMT -5
Rog- The Giants won three World Series with the guys who spent $212 on Cueto and Samardzija. Think what they have the possibility of doing with the guys who spent $81 on DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb. Especially with a much better farm system than they had after that first championship. Boagie- The Giants failed with the acquisitions of Cueto and Samardjiza, not because of the money, but because they expected Cueto and Samardjiza to be frontline pitchers. This is the same worry I have for Cobb, Wood and Desclafani. Cueto was viewed as a frontline starter but most thought Samardzija was an innings eater. I really did not like the signing as it appeared to be a knee-jerk reaction after they lost out on Greinke, almost like a signing to give the appearance of doing something, not necessarily to improve the team. If they had just signed Cueto, that would have been better but the Shark signing was unnecessary on many levels.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 11, 2021 12:11:12 GMT -5
I agree, I didn't hate the Cueto signing as much as the Samardjiza signing. Cueto at least proved he could have sustainable success, Samardjiza did not. That's why I question Desclafani's contract length, he's never really proven he can be consistent, and we have that question mark looming over our heads for the next 3 years.
Speaking of Greinke, he's still available. If they were to sign him to say a two year deal, I'd be more comfortable knowing he was our #2 and Desclafani could remain towards the bottom of our rotation. If they want to go cheaper and add a lefty to the rotation, Tyler Anderson might be a good option.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 11, 2021 12:14:08 GMT -5
Of course the Giants viewed Cueto as a frontline starter. Aside from Clayton Kershaw, he had likely been the best starter in the majors over the past five or six years. Do you think the Giants would have liked to sign a 29-year-old starter this winter with ERA's of 2.31.2.78, 2.82, 2.25 and 3.44 the past five seasons? There were none, although 37-year-old Max Scherzer was similar. That's right. Cueto from 2011 through 2015 pitched about as well as Scherzer has the past five seasons.
And, yes, Samardzija was viewed as an innings-eater. As I mentioned, whereas Willie Mays AVERAGED over 8 WAR per season over his career, Jeff had 8.6 WAR over eight seasons when the Giants signed him. As measured by WAR, Jeff actually pitched better AFTER the Giants acquired him, although as a reliever his first four seasons he had less opportunity to accumulate WAR. Jeff didn't set the world on fire for the Giants, but he shouldn't have been expected to. When healthy, he pitched at least as well as should have been expected.
I believe Cueto was a good signing, but unexpected arm problems foiled it. I like better than Samardzija all three pitchers the Giants signed this winter, but I don't like any of them as well as Cueto.
Let's not forget either that when both Cueto and Samardzija were healthy, Boly thought the 2016 Giants were the best team the Giants had enjoyed in their SF history. That didn't turn out to be true, but they WERE the best team in the majors record-wise the first half of the season.
If Cueto had just been able to stay healthy, things would likely have been different for the Giants. It doesn't appear though it would have made enough of a difference.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 11, 2021 12:25:50 GMT -5
As for the length of Anthony's contract, you've said you think it's too long, but you've failed to provide reasons for your opinions.
Matt, try looking at Anthony's contract this way: You say you like him at 1/$18.4 million. That means the Giants signed him for two additional seasons for 2/$17.6. That's less than they signed either Alex for. That's a nice risk/reward for the Giants.
I'm certainly not sure Anthony's contract will work out well for the Giants. Pitchers are too unpredictable to be sure. But I surely like their risk/reward ratio. Even if I didn't like it, I would have a hard time believing any of us knows more about player value than Farhan.
You guys say you trust Farhan, but then you go on to doubt him without providing strong reasons for your doubts. You say, Matt, that you don't disagree that DeSclafani is a value, but you don't like his third year. If the risk is as high as you seem to believe, that would negate the value of the contract, and it would no longer be a good value.
The Giants signed Anthony though age 34. They signed Cobb through age 36. If the Giants had signed Anthony though age 36 at the same AAV, I would probably agree with you. But signing him for three seasons through age 34 for only $12 million per season provides a very good risk/reward ratio. Even with the shortened 2020 season, Anthony has provided more value the past three seasons than the Giants are paying him.
Jeff Samardzija at 5/$90 wasn't a good value. Anthony at 3/$36 is a very good one. Just as Farhan Zaidi.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 11, 2021 13:40:29 GMT -5
This has indeed gone on plenty long enough. Let me simply summarize by saying that with prices being higher than they were five years ago, the Giants' spending $81 million now on DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb is a far better deal given their combined 8 WAR last season alone than signing Jeff Samardzija five years ago for $90 million when he had accumulated only 8.6 WAR over eight seasons. The Samardzija signing carried far more risk and not much if any more potential reward. Probably less reward actually.
As a related aside, I have mentioned that the primary risk isn't ability. but health. Including minor league starts for Logan Webb, over the past three seasons the four Giants starters have averaged:
Webb -- 25 starts
DeSclafani -- 27 starts
Wood -- 13 starts
Cobb -- 16 starts
That's a total average of 81 starts. Perhaps we can now see why Farhan is talking about filling out 162 starts on the season. My prediction: The Giants will add another substantial starter by the trade deadline. I believe Farhan is off to a fine start, but I don't believe he's done.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 11, 2021 15:33:46 GMT -5
Greinke appears to be a future Hall of Famer, but last season his strikeout rate fell by 30%, which is highly concerning. On the other hand, his fastball was one mph faster than in 2020 and aside from the swing-and-miss component, his pitches didn't seem to be that much less effective. His ace days appear to be over, and he's probably not even a #2 anymore, but he still looks like an innings-eater. Would he be worth his projected 1/$15 salary? Given that the Giants seem to have more talent than innings-eating ability, perhaps.
But I wouldn't sign him at anywhere close to that price. His expected ERA last season was 4.45, up from 3.79 in 2020 and 3.48 in 2019. Zack seems to be going the wrong direction.
Tyler Anderson could be appealing. He got batters to go outside the zone last season more than ever, and he got more swinging strikes than any season since 2017, but he seems to be just an average starter. The Giants could indeed use another southpaw starter. I was hoping for Andrew Heaney, but the Dodgers beat the Giants to him.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 11, 2021 15:35:41 GMT -5
One of the reasons you should try to answer my questions, Matt, is that I answer yours, so returning the favor would be common courtesy. Any question I have missed answering, just ask again.
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