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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 12, 2021 18:47:40 GMT -5
Reed- Actually, I think DeSclafani's contact does not hold back our younger pitchers. They don't currently have whole lot of starter prospects at upper levels currently. I would absolutely be delighted if Harrison, Bednar, and Mikulski step up but I think we're talking 2024 at the earliest and odds are probably not all three of them. I think one of the reasons why they drafted so many pitchers last June was because the cupboard was barren.
Boagie- That could very well be the case, but when pitchers are doing well like those 3, they can move through the ranks pretty swiftly. All 3 are projected for 2024, that's the final year of Desclafani's contract. All three are stud pitchers, so they could make it to the big leagues before their projected dates. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. I just don't like locking down a veteran pitcher when we should be focusing on young arms that can be relevant in October.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2021 18:48:45 GMT -5
For those who don't think the Giants have been aggressive enough, Jeff Passan reported that the team was "incredibly aggressive" in examining its available options.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2021 18:54:03 GMT -5
From Fan Graphs at midseason:
The real surprise this year has been Anthony DeSclafani.
DeSclafani has shown plenty of promise in years past. During his first three years in the major leagues, he compiled 5.3 WAR and a 3.99 ERA backed by a 3.78 FIP. But the strong start to his career was cut short by an oblique injury that cost him nearly half of the 2016 season, then a strained UCL kept him off the field for all of ‘17. He managed to avoid Tommy John surgery, but struggled upon returning from his elbow injury the following year. Things really fell apart in 2020. He started the season on the IL with a strained back muscle, was eventually demoted to the bullpen by the end of September, and was left off the Reds’ playoff roster for their first-round matchup against the Braves, ending the year with a 7.22 ERA and 6.10 FIP.
Short on suitors, DeSclafani signed a one-year, $6 million contract with the Giants in the offseason — one that has paid off handsomely for both player and team. He’s posted career-bests in ERA and FIP and is on pace to accumulate nearly 4 WAR this year, and outside of a 10-run disaster against the Dodgers on May 23, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts and just six total since then.
The changes DeSclafani has made to his repertoire and approach are many, so let’s start simple: his pitch mix.
His slider has always been his best weapon, and he’s throwing it more than a third of the time in 2021 — the second highest rate for that pitch in his career. He’s also upped the usage of his changeup this year, with both increases coming at the expense of his four-seam fastball.
Since returning from his elbow surgery in 2018, his slider has been a work-in-progress; the speed and the shape have deviated wildly over the last four years.
Anthony DeSclafani, Slider Physical Characteristics Year Velocity V Mov H Mov Spin Rate 2018 86.8 33.9 4.4 2231 2019 89.4 27.4 3.7 2315 2020 86.1 38.2 4.2 2218 2021 87.4 32.2 4.5 2195 The only thing that’s stayed consistent through the seasons is the horizontal movement. In 2019, it looks like DeSclafani attempted to add velocity to the slider at the cost of some vertical movement. Last season, that velocity dropped back down to its previous level, but he was able to add more drop. This year, he’s found a healthy middle-ground; the velocity is higher than it was in 2018 and ‘20, and the vertical movement is right around where it was four years ago.
So how have these changes affected the slider’s results?
Anthony DeSclafani, Slider Results Year Whiff% CSW% GB% xwOBAcon 2018 36.9% 28.9% 43.3% 0.376 2019 29.3% 27.4% 43.7% 0.353 2020 34.8% 24.4% 40.4% 0.409 2021 32.9% 28.6% 48.1% 0.348 Despite all these evolutions, the slider has remained very effective. In 2019, when he added all that velocity, it actually saw its lowest whiff rate of the last few years. The next year, more vertical movement resulted in the lowest groundball rate out of the last four seasons. In 2021’s happy medium, his whiff rate has dipped a bit, but he’s inducing a lot more contact on the ground to offset the loss of those swings and misses.
DeSclafani’s changeup has also undergone some significant changes this year. That was a pitch he was committed to working on this spring, and that tinkering has had some interesting effects. He’s added more than an inch of arm side run to the pitch, but batters aren’t really swinging and missing against it, with a mere 9.2% whiff rate (surprisingly not a career low). Instead, he’s using the pitch to generate tons of weak contact. He throws his changeup almost exclusively to left-handed batters, and when hitters put it in play, they’re running a .299 xwOBA.
DeSclafani locates his changeup in the zone around 45% of the time, which matches what he was doing in 2018 and ‘19. But last year, that zone rate was just 28.6%, while its whiff rate was the highest it’s been over the last four seasons. That might just be a coincidence; he threw just 42 changeups last year after all, and the zone rate on all of his pitches was down. That loss of command was a big reason why his walk rate ballooned to 10.1%. This season, he’s gotten back to locating in the zone more often, and his walk rate has fallen back down to his career norms.
The best thing about all those additional strikes is that DeSclafani’s contact rate has continued its downward trend. It’s still a touch above average, which puts a cap on his strikeout ceiling, but he’s earning more called strikes and avoiding free passes again, and when batters do make contact, they’re not doing much damage. His groundball rate is the highest it’s ever been, and his massive home field advantage has helped him push his home run rate to well below league average.
With a long injury history to worry about and just one season with more than 180 innings under his belt, DeSclafani’s stamina could become an issue for the Giants down the road. For now, though, he’s settled in as the second-best starter in a very good rotation in San Francisco and has found the best version of himself after all that tinkering.
As has been the case with several pitchers the Giants have signed, Anthony improved after signing with the Giants. Over the next three seasons, they hope to take continuing advantage of that improvement. If he stays healthy, they very likely will.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2021 18:55:16 GMT -5
Learn anything about Anthony today? I did.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2021 9:35:07 GMT -5
Reed- Actually, I think DeSclafani's contact does not hold back our younger pitchers. They don't currently have whole lot of starter prospects at upper levels currently. I would absolutely be delighted if Harrison, Bednar, and Mikulski step up but I think we're talking 2024 at the earliest and odds are probably not all three of them. I think one of the reasons why they drafted so many pitchers last June was because the cupboard was barren. Boagie- That could very well be the case, but when pitchers are doing well like those 3, they can move through the ranks pretty swiftly. All 3 are projected for 2024, that's the final year of Desclafani's contract. All three are stud pitchers, so they could make it to the big leagues before their projected dates. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. I just don't like locking down a veteran pitcher when we should be focusing on young arms that can be relevant in October. A three year contract is not as bad as a five year (Samardzija), six year (Cueto), or seven year (Zito). A three year should not hold back anyone and to be honest, I don't think DeSclafani will be much use in year 3 but the 3 year was added to get the deal done. Anything above three years, a team may have buyer's remorse but can't do anything about it. Those abovementioned three pitchers kept taking up rotation and roster spots because of how much money was sunk into them. I don't see DeSclafani keeping any pitcher from getting a rotation spot because I think those arms may not be ready until at least the second half of 2023 at the earliest. The Cain deal (five year extension) was bad also but I give Cain a pass and deserves to be rewarded because of what he has done for the Giants. I think most of us would give more leeway to the legacy players and legacy players = Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Crawford, Posey, and so forth. With his extension, Cain was able to get three houses and as far as I'm concerned, he can water his lawn as much as he wants.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 9:51:57 GMT -5
I just wanted to place some perspective on how good DeSclafani's 2021 season was. His ERA+ (the league average ERA divided by his park-adjusted ERA) of 129 was equal to the career ERA+ of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. I'm not saying Anthony is nearly as good as those guys. What I am saying, and which is a fact, is that last season his run prevention was as good as Justin's and Gerrit's have been over their careers.
Looked at another way, Sandy Koufax's career ERA+ was 131, the same as Dizzy Dean and Roy Halladay. Carl Hubbell's was 130.
Now, I'm comparing Anthony's 2nd-best season in ERA+ to the CAREER ERA+ figures of these star pitchers, so it's not apples to apples. But my point is that last season alone, Anthony pitched like a #1 pitcher. In 2019 he pitched more like a #2. To call him a #4 pitcher simply isn't a fair appraisal. At worst he's a #3, and given how good he has been in his past two full seasons, he's more likely a #2.
Again, who are the 60 starting pitchers who are better than he is? Right now. If there aren't 60 starting pitchers who are better, he's a #2. 60 starting pitchers divided by 30 teams equals two. If there aren't 90 starting pitchers who are better than he, he's not a #4.
Remember, among qualifying pitchers last season, Anthony had the #13 ERA. In terms of run prevention last season, there were 12 qualified pitchers who were better than Anthony. A dozen better than he. Which other #4 starter can make that claim? Which #3 starter?
Last season Anthony's ERA was lower than Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton or Lucas Giolito. I'm not saying Anthony is better than those guys. He isn't. But they're unquestioned #1's, and in terms of run prevention, he outpitched them last season. And none of them had what one would call a bad season. A really good pitcher who DID have a down season was Aaron Nola. Anthony's ERA was nearly a run and a half lower than Nola's.
Patrick Corbin has been considered over the past few seasons to be a pretty good pitcher. Patrick finished #5 in the Cy Young voting in 2018 and #11 in 2019. Last season Patrick's ERA was more than two and a half runs higher than Anthony's.
Number 4 pitchers have ERA's in the high four's. In the four seasons Anthony has pitched the most innings, his ERA's have been 4.05, 3.17, 3.89 and 3.28. That's not pitching like a #4.
In those four seasons, Anthony's ERA has been 3.63. Tim Lincecum's career ERA with the Giants was 3.61. Matt Cain's was 3.68. When healthy, Anthony has been closer to a #1 than to a #4.
Anthony's issue over his career has been his health, not his ability.
Should we listen to Farhan, or to Matt and Boly? Farhan put the Giants' money where his mouth is. Matt and Boly are just talkin'.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 10:02:06 GMT -5
Ignoring the facts that the Diamondbacks are paying Madison Bumgarner 5/$75 and the Giants are paying Anthony DeSclafani only 3/$36, would you rather the Giants had Anthony or Madison the next three seasons? Madison is a little older, but by only about nine months. Madison does have about twice as many innings on his arm.
I'm not asking which pitcher has enjoyed the better career. There is no question there. I'm asking which pitcher we would rather the Giants have over the next three seasons. I don't think there's much question there, either.
Maybe Mason Saunders is available -- if only the Giants could pry him from his rodeo and mountain biking careers.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 13, 2021 10:16:07 GMT -5
You're probably right, Reed. Of the things I've talked about, holding back prospects was the issue I was not quite sure of. As things stand now, only Webb and Desclafani are projected to be on the Giants through 2024, so that leaves 3 open spots. I'm glad your posts have emphasized that point. Maybe I'm being overally critical of a good contract for a pitcher that basically earned a 3 year deal with his 2021 season. You changed my mind on that. However, I still don't see him maintaining the success we saw the first part of last season, and I certainly don't think of him as a frontline guy. But for just 12 million a season I guess I can deal with that uncertainty.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 13, 2021 10:21:35 GMT -5
Rog- Ignoring the facts that the Diamondbacks are paying Madison Bumgarner 5/$75 and the Giants are paying Anthony DeSclafani only 3/$36, would you rather the Giants had Anthony or Madison the next three seasons? Madison is a little older, but by only about nine months. Madison does have about twice as many innings on his arm.
Boagie- That's easy, Madison. We know he can pitch in the post-season.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2021 10:40:19 GMT -5
Rog- Ignoring the facts that the Diamondbacks are paying Madison Bumgarner 5/$75 and the Giants are paying Anthony DeSclafani only 3/$36, would you rather the Giants had Anthony or Madison the next three seasons? Madison is a little older, but by only about nine months. Madison does have about twice as many innings on his arm. Boagie- That's easy, Madison. We know he can pitch in the post-season. Bumgarner. As I recall, the Giants offered 4/$70 but Bumgarner's people were trying to get the deal into the $100 million range by setting up bidding between the Giants and Dodgers but neither team wanted to go for the fifth year.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2021 11:01:13 GMT -5
You're probably right, Reed. Of the things I've talked about, holding back prospects was the issue I was not quite sure of. As things stand now, only Webb and Desclafani are projected to be on the Giants through 2024, so that leaves 3 open spots. I'm glad your posts have emphasized that point. Maybe I'm being overally critical of a good contract for a pitcher that basically earned a 3 year deal with his 2021 season. You changed my mind on that. However, I still don't see him maintaining the success we saw the first part of last season, and I certainly don't think of him as a frontline guy. But for just 12 million a season I guess I can deal with that uncertainty. Also, while Webb stepped up this season and is #1 by default, I'm a little leery of him because of his away ERA is double the home ERA. Even though I say that DeSclafani probably won't be blocking anyone with his three year contract, we probably should note that his second half stats are consistent with those of his whole career and a pitcher with ERA in the low 4's is probably what we're going to see. As you noted, he was inconsistent in 2021 with 3 good months, 2 bad months, and 1 okay month. Basically, he's good against bad teams (ERA 1.96 vs teams <.500) and bad against good teams (ERA 5.77 if its a team over .500). He started twice as many games against teams with losing records than against teams with winning records. So, he can rack up decent stats in the regular season but will probably struggle in a playoff environment against better teams and if the NL West improves (particularly the Padres), we will likely see a dropoff. If I'm Farhan, I'd realize there's more work to be done and if we evaluate the contract, its probably more than fair. Its fair for Boagie to have concerns about DeSclafani. I looked up all this stuff on baseballreference.com and used the splits function and the one thing that really jumped out at me was the high number of walks he gave up to Dodger hitters. This means he was probably nibbling against them.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2021 11:28:12 GMT -5
oops, yeah I had forgotten Desclafani didn't get a qualifying offer..that was an odd move from Zaidi, and again out of character for him. Just so we're clear, I'm not upset with the monetary value of Desclafani's contract, 12 million is a bargain for even a #4. The amount the Giants want to pay players doesn't really matter to me at this point because it's clear we're not going to be very active in the free agent market. What I'm focused on is in a few years we'll have some arms that will be ready for the big leagues, and I don't want Desclafani's 3 year contract to muddy the waters when it's time to allow youth to take over. Just this last season Cueto's contract was blocking Logan Webb from getting his shot, and as we found out, Logan Webb was more than ready. I've been very pleased with Zaidi thus far, but even though his approach to being the GM is considered a fresh new way to look at making up a roster, he's also making some of the mistakes that old school GMs made. He's allowing contracts to dictate the roster, not talent. I'd like to see Zaidi be quicker at releasing players that become a hinderance to the youth movement. I see Desclafani's 3 year deal as a possible log jam situation in the near future. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. That, and I simply don't see Desclafani as a frontline starter, he may have had a good season and we may have gotten him for cheap, but how many frontline starters make 12 mil a season? He is getting paid for a good April, June, and September, May and August were poor. This does not look like the Spider-tack pattern of being good until June, then dropping off after that.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 12:15:01 GMT -5
Matt, we know Madison COULD pitch in the postseason -- past tense. We also know he hasn't been able to pitch well at all the past two seasons and that his predicted decline occurred even while he was a Giant. IIRC I put the over/under on his ERA for 2019 at 4.00, which was darn close to his actual 3.90. Even though it didn't show up much in his ERA until 2019, Madison had shown signs of decline since 2016.
The Giants are taking far less risk with Anthony at 3/$36 than they would have taken had they matched Madison's 5/$75 offer, which itself was a recognition he had declined. If Madison hadn't already declined, an offer something like 6/$150 might have been extended. During his peak, he was a darn good pitcher.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 12:23:50 GMT -5
Yesterday I began thinking about our starter definitions. People seem to break starting pitchers into three categories, and it's possible they overlap.
Frontline starter is the first category. That certainly includes #1 starters, and it might include #2 starters as well -- although I would say that commonly it doesn't.
The there's the mid-rotation starter. Obviously that includes #3's, who are dead in the middle of the rotation, but it might also include #2's and #4's.
Finally, there's the bottom-of-the-rotation starter. Clearly #5's fit here, but #4's might as well.
If we look only at #1's as frontline starters, Anthony doesn't quite qualify right now IMO, even though he did last season and came close in 2019. If we included #2's, I don't think we can exclude him. That would mean we place 60 starting pitchers ahead of him, and there just aren't that many we can reasonably place ahead of him.
If we include #2's in our mid-rotation starter, he would qualify there. But if it's only #3's or #3's and #4's, he's overqualified.
And I think we all agree he's not a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, no matter which of the two definitions we choose.
Last season Anthony was actually the Giants' #3 starter by the end of the season. There weren't many teams on which he wouldn't have been #1 or #2 by that point in the season, especially the way he pitched down the stretch.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 16:25:40 GMT -5
There are two things about the Giants' prospects: The best are mostly position players, not pitchers, and they're mostly in the low minors rather than being ready for 2022. Joey Bart will be here, of course, but even Heliot Ramos likely isn't ready for much more than platoon duty this season. Heliot hit just so-so in the Pacific Coast League last season, and the PCL is a notorious hitters' league.
It would be a wonderful thing if Anthony DeSclafani got in the way of some prospect pitchers. The Giants could then trade him and free up more money. But that seems unlikely unless the Giants add another top starter or two.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 16:52:32 GMT -5
DeSclafani pitched at the level of a #1 starter last season, but I don't consider him one. He also pitched at about that level in 2016, but he had more luck, and he pitched only 123 innings. In 2019, he pitched more at the level of a #2. Over his full career, he's pitched at the level of a low #2 or a high #3. That's why I consider him a #2.
There is absolutely no way he's only a #4, although he pitched at the level of a #5 in 33 innings in 2014 (his rookie season) and in 34 innings in 2020 when he suffered from injury and pitched in the shortened COVID season. IN 20818 he pitched at the level of a #4 or even a #5, and in 2015 he pitched at the level of a low #2 or high #3. In his four most complete seasons, encompassing 642 of his 824 career innings, he's pitched really close to a #2 level or even at the level of a #1. Basically, when Anthony has been healthy, he's been pretty solid at the level of a #2 or very close to it, and over two seasons and 291 of those innings, he's pitched at the level of a #1.
The Giants were lucky to get a pitcher of Anthony's ability for 3/$36. They got him for half the price of Marcus Stroman. I would prefer Marcus, but for anywhere close to twice as much. If the Giants had signed Anthony for just TWO seasons for $36 million, I wouldn't have liked the deal nearly as much, but wouldn't have considered it a huge overpay. Getting that third season more or less for free adds to the potential reward.
If you were willing to pay $18.4 million to Anthony for one season, Matt, surely you would have been willing to go 2/$30. And wouldn't you have been willing to add a third year for just $6 million? By comparison, the Dodgers just paid Andrew Heaney $8.5 million for the upcoming season, and Andrew HAS pitched at the level of a #4 starter over his career and over the past three seasons has posted ERA's of 4.91, 4.46 and 5.53. He has put up an ERA below four only once in his career, and that was over only 106 innings in 2015.
That said, Andrew showed some things in 2021, and put up an expected ERA of 4.09. I wish the Giants had beaten the Dodgers to him, although I did like him a little better at his projected $6 million than the $8.5 million the Dodgers paid. Andrew hasn't shown anything CLOSE to what Anthony showed in 2016, 2019 and 2021, yet Anthony's Average Annual Contract Value is only $3.5 million higher than Heaney's. Let's put it this way, if Heaney puts together a season in 2022 like the one Anthony put up last season, he'll likely make MORE than $36 million over three seasons.
The Giants got Anthony AND the two Alex's for just over 2/3rds of what the Mariners paid for Robbie Ray alone. They signed all three for nearly $30 million less than Kevin Gausman alone received. These were high-value signings.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 16:54:40 GMT -5
As it turned out, Madison should have accepted the Giants' 4/$70 offer. He would have sacrificed only $5 million and with the benefit of the Giants' coaching, he might well have made three times that much when he hit the open market for a fifth season. Plus, I think he'd rather be with the Giants.
But for the Giants, they were likely fortunate he didn't take their offer.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 17:04:05 GMT -5
There are a few frontline starters making equal to or less than $12 million per annum, but the closest one who has reached free agency is Anthony DeSclafani. If frontline starters include #2's, he's likely a frontline starter. If frontline starters don't include #2's, the average frontline starter who has reached free agency is making over twice that, and Anthony doesn't make the cut.
If the Giants were to sign Zack Greinke and he pitched at a #3 level, I would be pleased. Zack pitched at the level of a #3 last season and was paid $35 million to do so.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 17:13:37 GMT -5
Prior to the Giants' re-signing DeSclafani, Farhan said that he didn't offer Anthony a QO because he felt Anthony would pitch best with the security of a long-term pact. He also likely felt the Giants were making good progress with Anthony on that long-term contract, and indeed it worked out. Anthony signed for the same term and for $6 million less than MLB Trade Rumors projected. They had Anthony as their #22 free agent. If the Giants overpaid for their free agents when compared with MLBTR's expectations, it would have been for Wood, who received 2/$25 vs. a projected 3/$30, and Cobb, who was paid 2/$20 compared to a 2/$16 projection.
Personally I liked all three signings.
Matt, you and Boly are still thinking old-school. You're not thinking of value first. Every time a team gets a good deal on a signing, it gives them more room to make other good signings. If they overpay, even for a very good player, they cut into their opportunity for growth.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 17:17:00 GMT -5
Reeder, you're right that Anthony is getting paid for an outstanding April and June and for an excellent September and a good June. But he's also being paid for the good seasons he showed in 2016 and 2019. When Matt said Anthony had only been good in one season, he was incorrect. That's probably the main reason Matt is so undervaluing Anthony.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 17:26:06 GMT -5
From today's MLB Trade Rumors chat:
Steve Adams -- I would imagine the Giants feel they can bring Cobb's performance closer to that of Gausman than most fans would expect. Farhan Zaidi (president of baseball ops), at least to this point, has had that same short-term-contract mentality the Dodgers exhibited during his time there (and continue to exhibit, for the most part).
I don't know that paying top-of-the-market money to keep Gausman was in the cards, although I will say I thought Gausman would get more money than he did. I thought a team with SF's payroll capacity would've matched 5/110.
Webb, Disco, Wood, Cobb is a fine start to the staff. If the Giants want a high-upside play available on a (relatively) shorter-term deal, Carlos Rodon is out there. Huge risk there, of course, but it was No. 1 stuff when healthy in 2021 -- and the history of arm troubles (including late 2021) has to cap the potential length of a deal. I would think three years max, personally.
I'm excited about Rodon, but he's a tough call. It sounds like he may miss some of this season, or perhaps his innings will be curtailed as they were last season. MLBTR projected Rodon to sign for 1/$25, although if one signs him for three seasons, he could work to ensure Carlos' arm is stronger rather than rushing him back. Carlos could likely be signed for three seasons for less than Marcus Stroman was, and he has far more upside, but also more risk.
If Farhan sees fit to sign Rodon, I'll be ecstatic despite the risk.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2021 17:40:14 GMT -5
Here's another thing about getting value players. They can usually be traded later if situations change. Chances are if Anthony DeSclafani did get in the way of a prospect, they could turn that into a positive by trading Anthony to open the way. Maybe they could pick up a prospect in return who could take the young pitcher's place in the development chain. That's one way to keep a dynasty going.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2021 19:48:15 GMT -5
Rog- Ignoring the facts that the Diamondbacks are paying Madison Bumgarner 5/$75 and the Giants are paying Anthony DeSclafani only 3/$36, would you rather the Giants had Anthony or Madison the next three seasons? Madison is a little older, but by only about nine months. Madison does have about twice as many innings on his arm. Boagie- That's easy, Madison. We know he can pitch in the post-season. Bumgarner on the Giants could have benefitted from the Giants' coaching staff. There's no way of knowing but I think they would have helped him make necessary adjustments.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 14, 2021 0:05:10 GMT -5
Rog- When Matt said Anthony had only been good in one season, he was incorrect. That's probably the main reason Matt is so undervaluing Anthony.
Boagie- What other full season was he good enough to be considered a frontline starter?
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 14, 2021 0:07:52 GMT -5
Rog- Here's another thing about getting value players. They can usually be traded later if situations change. Chances are if Anthony DeSclafani did get in the way of a prospect, they could turn that into a positive by trading Anthony to open the way.
Boagie- If the Giants consider him "in the way" why would another team trade to get him?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 14, 2021 9:01:18 GMT -5
Rog- When Matt said Anthony had only been good in one season, he was incorrect. That's probably the main reason Matt is so undervaluing Anthony. Boagie- What other full season was he good enough to be considered a frontline starter? 2019 he had a 3.89 ERA in 31 starts, 2016 was 3.20 in 20 starts. 2016 and 2017 he had injuries and every years besides these two and 2021, his ERA was over 4. This is what Passan says: DeSclafani hasn't been remotely consistent from year to year, but he's had several strong seasons, including a career-best 3.17 ERA in 31 starts for the Giants in 2021. His 22.5 percent strikeout rate was slightly below average, but contact isn't punished as frequently in Oracle Park as it is elsewhere, and he avoided long rallies thanks to his 6.2 percent walk rate. The Giants evidently believe DeSclafani reached a new level last season and won't fall back to being the guy who posted a 7.22 ERA in 2020 or a 4.93 ERA in 2018. The ceiling may not be particularly high here, and his age (he'll turn 32 in April) as well as the likelihood of regression in his .265 BABIP both add risk, but the veteran righty still looks like a good bet to be a capable mid-rotation arm in 2022. I think if the Giants think he's a #2, that would mean their rotation is weaker this year. As far as I know, no one in the Giants organization said he's our #2 and Krukow has stated a few times that some pitchers feel jinxed against certain clubs or in certain ballparks. and this was in context of DeSclafani's troubles against the Dodgers. After that, he usually says something like "if you take away his games against the Dodgers, his stats are up there". If you look closely at his starts in 2021, there were 20 starts against teams with losing records, 11 starts against teams with winning records (6 of those against the Dodgers, 2 against the Braves). BABIP was .268 so that indicated he was a little lucky. As such, I feel his 3.17 ERA in 2021 is somewhat illusory and may not be a realistic expectation for the next three years.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 14, 2021 9:55:00 GMT -5
Rog- Here's another thing about getting value players. They can usually be traded later if situations change. Chances are if Anthony DeSclafani did get in the way of a prospect, they could turn that into a positive by trading Anthony to open the way. Boagie- If the Giants consider him "in the way" why would another team trade to get him? I'm still trying to figure out why the Giants traded for Matt Moore.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 14, 2021 11:19:20 GMT -5
Rog- As for the length of Anthony's contract, you've said you think it's too long, but you've failed to provide reasons for your opinions. Boagie- That's horse shit. I've given you multiple reasons why. Desclafani hasn't been consistent, even last year he wasn't consistent. I also said that we have some younger pitchers (Harrison, Bednar, and Mikulski) that could be held back because of 3 year contracts to inconsistent pitchers like Desclafani. Just because they don't jive with your nerd websites doesn't mean they're not viable concerns. Open your mind to other possibilities than what you've been brainwashed to believe by the sabermetric websites. Krukow was absolutely glowing about Harrison today on the radio. He says he's only 20 years old but Pat Burrell says he is playing like a man among boys. Burrell is more old school and looks at intangibles such as how a pitcher reacts after things don't go their way or an error is made behind him. According to Melissa Lockard, Harrison has leapfrogged to number 3 on the organizational depth chart just behind Luciano and Matos. The description of Harrison was that he looks like a West Coast version of Bumgarner, a lefty with similar release. If his career path looks like Bumgarner's I would be thrilled.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 14, 2021 15:59:28 GMT -5
I agree with you, Reeder, that 3.17 is very unrealistic for DeSclafani over the next three seasons. The only two seasons he's approached that are last season and with his 3.28 ERA in 2016. Of course, if he somehow DID pitch at that level, he would be pitching at the level of a #1 starter, and his signing would be one of the best in history.
I'm looking for more around 3.90, which would probably make him a low #2, possibly a high #3. Right around the cusp, actually. The precise demarcation might then be based on how many innings he threw. I don't think my expectations are all that much higher for him than are Matt's and Boly's, but I think they believe the ERA of a #4 starter is close to a run lower than it truly is. I've defined the rough ranges of ERA's for #1 through #5. They aren't into numbers, so they haven't bothered. And I think that is to their detriment.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 14, 2021 16:06:17 GMT -5
Matt, you're right that if two or more of the three good young Giants prospect pitchers are ready by 2023, the present foursome could get in the way. Given how common injuries are, probably not. Remember, the four Giants pitchers started only a combined 81 games last season. But the potential is there.
But even if all three make it in 2024, the only starters presently under contract then would be Webb and DeSclafani, and all three would be more than welcome. Aren't you worrying about something that has a low percentage of happening? To be honest, I think you're rationalizing.
The only way I think it could be more than a remote possibility that any of the present Giants starters could get in the way would be if they add another long-term starter or two. And as I mentioned, teams are DELIGHTED to trade for starting pitchers, which would put the Giants in an enviable position during the winter or at the trade deadline.
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