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Post by reedonly on Dec 16, 2021 11:43:02 GMT -5
In the Dodger-Giants series alone, Scherzer, Buehler, Urias, Webb, Wood, and Gausman are better. Atlanta's Fried and MOrton are better, Milwaukee's Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta are better, St Louis has Wainright. He's 13th best using NL playoff pool and that's not including openers. If you settle for AD as your #2, that's kind of like in the early 80s when Milt May was leading the club in hitting. Or you can trade him to Arizona or Colorado and he can be their ace.. I'm thinking the higher he is on the pecking order, its a sign of trouble. Great, great post, Reeder!
But what you pointed out just amplified my complaint about Farhan not really addressing our starting pitching needs.
I get not wanting Gausman back.
Heck, late in the year I DIDN'T want him back!
But with Ray and Stroman on the board, Farhan should have acted.
But he didn't.
And now, as you and boagie continue to point out, after Webb, we're stuck with a bunch of # 3 and # 4 starters, because that's all AD and Wood are; middle to bottom of the rotation guys.
IMHO, unless he pulls off one HECK of a trade, we're staring 3rd place squarely in the face for next season.
In fact, based upon our current starters, we'll be lucky to win more than 85 games.I get the feeling that its not going to be about 2022 but 2023-2029 and it some ways, what is going on in the minor leagues might be as important or more so in the long run.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 16, 2021 16:17:05 GMT -5
In the Dodger-Giants series alone, Scherzer, Buehler, Urias, Webb, Wood, and Gausman are better. Atlanta's Fried and MOrton are better, Milwaukee's Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta are better, St Louis has Wainright. He's 13th best using NL playoff pool and that's not including openers. If you settle for AD as your #2, that's kind of like in the early 80s when Milt May was leading the club in hitting. Or you can trade him to Arizona or Colorado and he can be their ace.. I'm thinking the higher he is on the pecking order, its a sign of trouble. Great, great post, Reeder!
But what you pointed out just amplified my complaint about Farhan not really addressing our starting pitching needs.
I get not wanting Gausman back.
Heck, late in the year I DIDN'T want him back!
But with Ray and Stroman on the board, Farhan should have acted.
But he didn't.
And now, as you and boagie continue to point out, after Webb, we're stuck with a bunch of # 3 and # 4 starters, because that's all AD and Wood are; middle to bottom of the rotation guys.
IMHO, unless he pulls off one HECK of a trade, we're staring 3rd place squarely in the face for next season.
In fact, based upon our current starters, we'll be lucky to win more than 85 games.I guess it means that a true #1 starter is now a rarity and not all teams have one. Very unfortunate that the Dodgers have two such. Even though Robbie Ray is going to make a lot of money, I don't view him as a true #1 like Scherzer. He just happens to be one of the best ones out of a mediocre pool of free agents and I remember him as better than average in Arizona. Strohman might have a case to be one. Using the clothing analogy, this is like buying Wal-Mart clothes at Saks. Same clothes, much different prices. And next year will be even thinner.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 16, 2021 18:04:35 GMT -5
Not overly surprisingly, you and I pretty much agree here, Reeder. Should Antony be a #2 on a playoff team? I would say in most cases, no. If we define a #2 as a #2 on a playoff team, I'm with you. But we were talking about a #2, not a #2 on a playoff team. Which means that all a pitcher has to do is be in the top 60 in the majors to qualify. And one has to really stretch to find 60 starters better right now Anthony (and healthy). There is simply no way to find 90, so the original statement that he was no more than a #4 is false. Even on a playoff team, I can see him slotting in at #3 -- such as last season, when while I realize he didn't start until game 4, he was probably the Giants' #3. Maybe we could call him and Wood #3A and #3B. You simply don't see many #4 starters with 3.17 ERA's -- regardless of team.
You made a nice point that Anthony didn't pitch well against teams over .500. But he DID pitch pretty well against the top 15 hitting teams aside from the Giants. And back in 2019 when he pitched at the level of a #2, his ERA against +500 teams was 0.62 runs lower than against sub-.500 teams. Most of the trouble he had against +.500 teams last season came against the Dodgers, against whom he has admittedly struggled during his career, but against whom he threw six shutout innings coming down the stretch this past season.
Krukow is right that a rotation doesn't necessarily start the season with its best pitcher starting the first game, its second-best starting the second game, etc. There are other factors involved, including health, rest, matchups and home openers.
And teams don't necessarily have a #1 starter as THEIR #1 starter, a #2 starter as THEIR #2 starter, etc. Remember the Orioles team that had four 20-game winners? None of those guys was a true #4, but SOMEBODY had to be their fourth starter. Last season the Giants themselves had three guys who pitched at the level of a #1 -- Webb, Gausman and DeSclafani.
I hope that Anthony will pitch at the level of a #2 starter over the next three seasons. I think he might drop down to a #3, although I think it's unreasonable to expect him to pitch at the level of only a #4. Not impossible, but in the five seasons he's pitched over 100 innings, he's pitch at the level of a #2 or close to it in four of the five. I happen to like Alex Wood quite a bit too, and I have high hopes for Alex Cobb. I would much rather have Cobb at 2/$20 than Gausman at 5/$110.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 16, 2021 18:07:57 GMT -5
Boly, you said that with Ray and Stroman on the board, Farhan should have acted. One problem is that we don't know exactly how much it would have taken to get either of those guys (although we have a close idea). How high would you have gone for each, and how did you come up with that amount of years and dollars?
As for staring third place in the face for next season, that does indeed seem a reasonable outcome. But if the Giants make the playoffs, is that so bad?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 16, 2021 18:11:00 GMT -5
Are we overly focused on Anthony? Won't the success of the Giants' rotation be based just about as much on how Webb, Wood, Cobb and the 5th starter do? I don't expect him to perform poorly next season, but if he does and the other four starters excel, won't the rotation be pretty good? We don't even know who the #5 starter IS yet, but we know that Webb, Wood and Cobb have a nice potential for 2022.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 16, 2021 19:10:29 GMT -5
Boly, you wanted the Giants to sign either Ray or Stroman. I came around to agreeing with you on Stroman, although I'm not so fond that he himself chooses between a 2/$50 and a 3/$71 pact. If he pitches well the next two seasons, he will likely be gone after 2023. That means his team will have paid $25 million per season. I probably like that better than signing Justin Verlander. But if Stroman falls off, will he come close to being worth 3/$71? He would need to average about three wins per season to make that a good signing, and if he falls off enough NOT to re-declare as a free agent after 2023, he may have a tough time being a three-win pitcher over that term. He's been close to a 9-win pitcher over his past three seasons, although he sat out the 2020 COVID season.
I would have preferred signing Stroman to Ray. Ray was REALLY good last season, but isn't $115 million a lot to risk on a pitcher who over his past four seasons has been worth only half that? I'm intrigued by Ray for a couple of reasons.
First, he became really good last season when he found his control. Second, he pitched better in 2015 through 2017 than I realized.
But while I would rather the Giants had signed him than Gausman, $115 million is a lot of risk for Robbie. Isn't the Giants' potential reward with DeSclafani, Wood AND Cobb together close to as high as the potential reward with Robbie? And they took $34 million less risk than they would have taken with Robbie. That $34 million less cuts the risk, as does spreading it over three pitchers instead of one.
Last season was Robbie's best, and it was among the best for Anthony and the two Alex's. But whereas Robbie was worth four wins last season, the Giants' trio was worth eight. It is probably more likely that Robbie will be worth as much each season over his contract as he was worth last season than that the Giants' trio will be worth what THEY were worth last season, but if all four pitchers pitch as they did last season, Robbie will earn $160 million on his contract while the Giants' three signees will earn $152 million.
It's probably more likely that the three Giants pitchers will earn their annual average value over their past three, two and two seasons than that Robbie will earn his average annual value over his past five seasons. But if that happened, Robbie would earn $80 million; Anthony would earn $44 million ($24 million if we include his 2020 COVID season); Wood would earn $20 million; Cobb would earn $25 million. That would be $89 million for the three Giants ($69 million if we include DeSclafani's 2020 season).
I'm coming around a little more on Ray, who has been better for longer than I realized. That $115 million is still a big risk though. Not nearly as much risk as Jeff Samardzija was, but perhaps more comparable to the Johnny Cueto risk.
Right now I'm a no on Gausman, a yes on Stroman and a maybe on Ray. Actually, I'm going to go a yes on Robbie, given that his velocity last season was the highest of his career. Sounds like his mechanics are at their best, which gives him both velocity and control. I might be a LITTLE less bullish on the Giants' guys than I was, but I still think those were good signings. They were Farhan-like signings, and that's usually a good thing.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 17, 2021 9:43:29 GMT -5
Not overly surprisingly, you and I pretty much agree here, Reeder. Should Antony be a #2 on a playoff team? I would say in most cases, no. If we define a #2 as a #2 on a playoff team, I'm with you. But we were talking about a #2, not a #2 on a playoff team. Which means that all a pitcher has to do is be in the top 60 in the majors to qualify. And one has to really stretch to find 60 starters better right now Anthony (and healthy). There is simply no way to find 90, so the original statement that he was no more than a #4 is false. Even on a playoff team, I can see him slotting in at #3 -- such as last season, when while I realize he didn't start until game 4, he was probably the Giants' #3. Maybe we could call him and Wood #3A and #3B. You simply don't see many #4 starters with 3.17 ERA's -- regardless of team. You made a nice point that Anthony didn't pitch well against teams over .500. But he DID pitch pretty well against the top 15 hitting teams aside from the Giants. And back in 2019 when he pitched at the level of a #2, his ERA against +500 teams was 0.62 runs lower than against sub-.500 teams. Most of the trouble he had against +.500 teams last season came against the Dodgers, against whom he has admittedly struggled during his career, but against whom he threw six shutout innings coming down the stretch this past season. Krukow is right that a rotation doesn't necessarily start the season with its best pitcher starting the first game, its second-best starting the second game, etc. There are other factors involved, including health, rest, matchups and home openers. And teams don't necessarily have a #1 starter as THEIR #1 starter, a #2 starter as THEIR #2 starter, etc. Remember the Orioles team that had four 20-game winners? None of those guys was a true #4, but SOMEBODY had to be their fourth starter. Last season the Giants themselves had three guys who pitched at the level of a #1 -- Webb, Gausman and DeSclafani. I hope that Anthony will pitch at the level of a #2 starter over the next three seasons. I think he might drop down to a #3, although I think it's unreasonable to expect him to pitch at the level of only a #4. Not impossible, but in the five seasons he's pitched over 100 innings, he's pitch at the level of a #2 or close to it in four of the five. I happen to like Alex Wood quite a bit too, and I have high hopes for Alex Cobb. I would much rather have Cobb at 2/$20 than Gausman at 5/$110. If the goal of the 2022 Giants is to play out the 162 games, DeSclafani would be an adequate #2. However, with the 2021 Giants winning 107 games and the NL West, the expectations of the ownership and fanbase are now that 2022 should be at worst a playoff team. As such, AD at #2 is inadequate and they will either get their #2 now or pay through the nose in prospects at mid-season. Nowhere did anyone on the Giants say "we got our #2". Not Zaidi, Krukow, or any of the sportswriters. In fact, that is part of the reason why Krukow and others say that the number doesn't mean much. Also, I have mentioned a few times that we should be careful about expecting ace production out of Logan Webb. Baseball reference projects 10-6, 3.73. The worrisome stat is 1.98 ERA home, 4.08 ERA away. The main thing that is different is that he is getting hit harder outside of Oracle park. I'm not as pessimistic as baseball reference but I'm guessing his ERA will be at about 3.50-3.60 for the year. I'm not sure if the home/away split is something he can adjust to as he matures but its something to keep an eye on. To be quite frank, I'm a lot more concerned about Logan Webb than DeSclafani, especially if he starts out the rotation being matched up against other ace type pitchers.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2021 13:55:09 GMT -5
I thought about Logan last night. While I like him a lot, I think it's more of a stretch to call him a bona fide #1 than to call Anthony a bonafide #2. Logan was very good last season, but he's unproven. His ERA (3.94) is close to that of Anthony (4.06) and higher than Alex Cobb (3.87). He's not close to Alex Wood's 3.50. Alex may be the one who is most getting short shrift. Alex ranks #16 among all active pitchers with 990 or more innings.
To put how easy it is to fit into the #1, #2 or #3 starter categories, aside from Clayton Kershaw and Jacob DeGrom, no active major league starter has an ERA below 3.00. Only 7 starters with over 1000 innings are below 3.30. Only 15 are below 3.50. Only 35 are below 4.00.
All four Giants starters are at 4.06 or below, which puts them in good company.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2021 14:09:56 GMT -5
I'm going to study Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda as trade targets. Anyone have any preliminary thoughts on either?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 17, 2021 16:36:12 GMT -5
I'm going to study Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda as trade targets. Anyone have any preliminary thoughts on either? Maeda had Tommy John last September. If you're thinking about 2023, keep in mind that in Japan, they push their pitchers harder than in the US and he has eight seasons over 170 innings with Hiroshima before he got to the Dodgers.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 17, 2021 16:46:36 GMT -5
I'm going to study Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda as trade targets. Anyone have any preliminary thoughts on either? Gray has two years left on his contract but had a lot of soft tissue injuries requiring multiple stints on the IL. Castillo is considered to be untouchable but Gray is someone they wouldn't mind being rid of, or at least they want to be rid of Gray's salary. Gray might be the next DeSclafani. Personally, I'd pass or at least not give up much in terms of prospects. Gray's salary has a lot of kickers related to IP and to be honest, he probably won't meet those.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2021 22:12:03 GMT -5
Gray's salary is quite manageable. $11.4 million for 2022, with a $13.4 million team option for 2023. He will receive an extra $1 million if he's traded, although I didn't see any buyout cost for the option. As you mentioned, Reeder, he received a $100K bonus for 150, 160, ... 200 innings pitched in a season. His 2023 option enjoys the same increase based on 2022 innings.
Sonny pitched only 135 innings this past season. He pitched 175 in 2019. If the Giants could pick him up without give up top prospects, I'd be all for it. You know a team can fill a position with platoon players for maybe $5 million to $10 million that would cost $10 to $20 million or more to get that same level of contribution from one player? With the exception of Webb, the Giants' pitchers have injury questions, but if they were to pick up Sonny halfway cheaply and sign Rodon without breaking the bank, they could have six starters to fill five spots. If all six guys are healthy, simply go with a six-man rotation until someone gets injured or needs a start or two off for a dead arm.
Here is why Sonny intrigues me:
. He was excellent with a 2.87 ERA in 2019, finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting.
. His ERA was 3.72 or lower for three of the four seasons from 2017 through 2020.
. Last season his ERA was 4.11, but his expected ERA based on how the ball was hit was only 3.25.
. Sonny began his career with three seasons of ERA's between 2.667 and 3.03.
. Sonny's career ERA is 3.61, and he's improved it over the past three seasons.
. Sonny walks a few more batter than we'd like, but he strikes guys out and gets them hit it on the ground while keeping the ball in the part pretty well.
If the Giants had a rotation of Rodon, Webb, Gray, DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb, they would have decent quality and a lot of depth for perhaps $70 million per season. That's a lot of good pitching for around $12 million per starter. Innings questions with almost all of them, but spreading the innings risk six ways could work out inexpensively.
I'd like to see the Giants also sign Freddie Freeman, and include Brandon Belt in a three-team trade for Gray. The Giants have enough money to spend to do all this, and I think they could get value out of the deals without giving up many if any prospects.
As for blocking their young pitchers, Gray, Wood, Cobb and possibly Rodon could be out of the way before 2024. And if the young guys take a little longer to develop, the Giants could bring one or more starters back after 2023. Or pick up a different starter.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 17, 2021 23:31:07 GMT -5
Gray's salary is quite manageable. $11.4 million for 2022, with a $13.4 million team option for 2023. He will receive an extra $1 million if he's traded, although I didn't see any buyout cost for the option. As you mentioned, Reeder, he received a $100K bonus for 150, 160, ... 200 innings pitched in a season. His 2023 option enjoys the same increase based on 2022 innings. Sonny pitched only 135 innings this past season. He pitched 175 in 2019. If the Giants could pick him up without give up top prospects, I'd be all for it. You know a team can fill a position with platoon players for maybe $5 million to $10 million that would cost $10 to $20 million or more to get that same level of contribution from one player? With the exception of Webb, the Giants' pitchers have injury questions, but if they were to pick up Sonny halfway cheaply and sign Rodon without breaking the bank, they could have six starters to fill five spots. If all six guys are healthy, simply go with a six-man rotation until someone gets injured or needs a start or two off for a dead arm. Here is why Sonny intrigues me: . He was excellent with a 2.87 ERA in 2019, finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting. . His ERA was 3.72 or lower for three of the four seasons from 2017 through 2020. . Last season his ERA was 4.11, but his expected ERA based on how the ball was hit was only 3.25. . Sonny began his career with three seasons of ERA's between 2.667 and 3.03. . Sonny's career ERA is 3.61, and he's improved it over the past three seasons. . Sonny walks a few more batter than we'd like, but he strikes guys out and gets them hit it on the ground while keeping the ball in the part pretty well. If the Giants had a rotation of Rodon, Webb, Gray, DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb, they would have decent quality and a lot of depth for perhaps $70 million per season. That's a lot of good pitching for around $12 million per starter. Innings questions with almost all of them, but spreading the innings risk six ways could work out inexpensively. I'd like to see the Giants also sign Freddie Freeman, and include Brandon Belt in a three-team trade for Gray. The Giants have enough money to spend to do all this, and I think they could get value out of the deals without giving up many if any prospects. As for blocking their young pitchers, Gray, Wood, Cobb and possibly Rodon could be out of the way before 2024. And if the young guys take a little longer to develop, the Giants could bring one or more starters back after 2023. Or pick up a different starter. I think it might take Ramos to get the deal done. They won't take Belt because they are trying to shed salary.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 13:09:34 GMT -5
The Reds absolutely don't want Belt, both for salary reasons and because they already have Joey Votto. That's why it would need to be a three-team trade. I see the third team as perhaps being a team that the Giants beat out in Freeman's free agency. A team that would be willing to trade the Reds the prospect or prospects they would need.
But I absolutely would trade Ramos for Gray right now. Perhaps that might be doable. When the Giants get really good, I don't see Ramos as an everyday participant in their outfield. I recently read somewhere where Heliot's floor might be Austin Slater (versatile outfielder who hits lefties well). The Giants are of course hoping he can begin to show he can also hit right-handers. I'm not sure of his previous splits, but this past season he struggled against righties.
I think though that it would take more than Ramos to land Gray. Maybe if it were a three-way trade, the third team could get Belt, the Reds could receive Heliot from the Giants and a prospect(s) from the third team, and the Giants could also get a pitching prospect from the third team or the Reds.
Most likely though, Belt is staying with his heart in San Francisco, and someone aside from the Giants will land Freddie. MAN, I love Freddie though. I like Brandon too, but I LOVE Freddie.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 13:12:10 GMT -5
By the way, doesn't Freddie have perhaps the best stretch a first baseman has ever had? Willie McCovey got the nickname, but I've never seen a better stretch than Freddie's.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 18, 2021 13:12:24 GMT -5
I wanted the Giants to get Gray after his stint with the Yankees. Now it's too late to get him at a good value and not give up too much. Bad idea.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 18, 2021 13:15:29 GMT -5
Freddie Freeman has interest from the Yankees and Dodgers, which means the Giants have no chance. Even if the Yankees and Dodgers weren't pursuing him, we already have Belt, who is better imo. Bad idea.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 14:27:26 GMT -5
If Gray is a viable option, why not go after him? There's no way to know what he'll cost without asking. I doubt he'll be undervalued, but he might be. Which pitcher would you pursue on trade, Matt? And if you were to pursue Gray, how much would you be willing to give up? How much would you be willing to give up for the pitcher you would pursue?
You had a great idea of getting Gray earlier.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 14:31:05 GMT -5
I doubt the Giant could get Freddie Freeman reasonably, but once again, if you don't try, how do you know?
I have mixed emotions about your thinking Brandon Belt is better than Freddie. On the one hand, until Brandon had been underappreciated here, so I'm glad to see him get your love (not that you were among those who undervalued him). On the other, as much as I have liked Brandon through the years, I can't make a case that he's better than Freddie -- or as healthy. The two big differences between Brandon and Freddie have been batting average and health.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 15:30:53 GMT -5
So if not Gray or Freeman, which players should the Giants pursue?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 15:31:24 GMT -5
I think most would like to see Rodon, but how long and how high would we go?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 18, 2021 21:43:59 GMT -5
So if not Gray or Freeman, which players should the Giants pursue? Suzuki. I've heard 5Y/$60.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2021 0:30:59 GMT -5
Where do we sign? I would place the Mariners as the leader in the clubhouse, but I would put the Giants second. I believe once baseball agrees on a Collective Bargaining Agreement teams will still have 20 days left of the 30-day signing window. And the 5/$60 is expected to include the posting fee. I simply don't see that as a bad value to take, but of course Farhan will have a lot more information than I from which to make the decision. Suzuki was originally an infielder, and he was fast enough to have stolen 25 bases in 2018, but I don't know if he's center fielder. If so, I'd go even higher. If the posting fee isn't included in the estimate, I believe that would add an additional $11.25 million, still worthwhile IMO. But again, I don't know nearly as much as Farhan. It does give me hope though that he'll be strong with his offer.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2021 0:45:48 GMT -5
I did see a CBS article that mentioned -- hypothetically only -- $100 million though. If the bidding gets that high, I don't believe Farhan will be the winner, based on what we've read about no 9-figure contracts.
Actually though, while there ARE nine figures in contracts, there are only eight in contract, and I suspect the Giants are interested in signing only one with Seiya. CBS ranked Suzuki their #15 free agent. MLBTR ranked him #20 and predicted 5/$55. Ben Clemens of Fan Graphs predicted 4/$40. Clemens says that Suzuki's weakness on the inner third might be exploited with the extra four mph or so major league pitchers average on their fastballs, but says Suzuki is a good curve ball hitter who diminishes his leg kick with two strikes.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 20, 2021 16:45:29 GMT -5
Freddie Freeman has interest from the Yankees and Dodgers, which means the Giants have no chance. Even if the Yankees and Dodgers weren't pursuing him, we already have Belt, who is better imo. Bad idea. they may overpay Freeman to keep him from going to the the Dodgers?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 20, 2021 17:25:20 GMT -5
I would think just the opposite. I would think that Farhan might play some poker and try to bid the Dodgers up so they WOULD overpay. But my guess is that Farhan will bid no higher than he thinks Freddie is worth. I personally think Freddie is worth quite a lot. Fan Graphs pegs Freddie at $316 million over the past nine seasons, with $220 million of that coming over the past six seasons and $36 million of it coming from last season alone.
MLBTR pegged Freddie at 6/$180 million. I have to admit that's a lot for a 32-year-old. I would love to have Freddie, but I'm beginning to think more and more that the value is with the mid-level players, not the top ones. I think the time for the Giants to "overspend," if ever, is when they need one guy to put them over the top.
If there are two times to "overspend," they are to make it to the playoffs or to the World Series. I think the Giants already have a good shot at the 2022 playoffs, and I think they're at least a couple of players away from a likely World Series.
If we trust Farhan, we should probably trust Farhan -- which I know you do, Reeder. So does Mordy! I have a feeling though that Mordy has a shorter leash than you or Mark or I.
Look at the bargains the Giants have gotten from the two Brandon's. Belt has made $87 million and been worth $196 mill, according to Fan Graphs. Crawford has been an even more amazing bargain, making $80 million and being worth $215. Those two guys have been paid more like mid-level players.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 21, 2021 11:34:33 GMT -5
I think most would like to see Rodon, but how long and how high would we go? I'm not sold on Rodon. I think he's going to be out of the Farhan price range.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 21, 2021 17:34:52 GMT -5
I believe Rodon has the highest ceiling of the remaining free agent pitchers, but he carries plenty of risk and perhaps a high price tag.
MLBTR pegs him at 1/$25. Fan Graphs predicts 3/$45. I think I would actually prefer the latter, since if Rodon pitches well again and shows he can handle more innings, he'd likely command a whopper deal a year from now. Definitely more risk than I would like, but is their a higher-reward pitcher still out there? Rodon was valued by Fan Graphs at $39 million last season. Even though he was limited to 133 innings. Rodon could be a bust -- or he could be worth well over $100 million the next three seasons. Not that I expect anyone to give it to him, but if I were Rodon, I'd be looking for a 5-year deal with a 2- or 3-year opt out.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 22, 2021 10:09:50 GMT -5
I believe Rodon has the highest ceiling of the remaining free agent pitchers, but he carries plenty of risk and perhaps a high price tag. MLBTR pegs him at 1/$25. Fan Graphs predicts 3/$45. I think I would actually prefer the latter, since if Rodon pitches well again and shows he can handle more innings, he'd likely command a whopper deal a year from now. Definitely more risk than I would like, but is their a higher-reward pitcher still out there? Rodon was valued by Fan Graphs at $39 million last season. Even though he was limited to 133 innings. Rodon could be a bust -- or he could be worth well over $100 million the next three seasons. Not that I expect anyone to give it to him, but if I were Rodon, I'd be looking for a 5-year deal with a 2- or 3-year opt out. 3 years/$45 represents the absolute maximum they should go.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 22, 2021 11:34:10 GMT -5
If the lockout goes too long, I'd be real careful about getting guys who tend to get injured. We will need about six weeks of spring training for players to adequately prep. If there's not going to be enough ST, I'd lean towards not pursuing Rodon.
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