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Post by rxmeister on Nov 28, 2014 16:04:35 GMT -5
When the Giants lost Pablo Sandoval and finished as runner up to Yasmany Tomas,, I guess this was pretty inevitable. The Yankees wanted him back, but didn't want to go above three years, so I'm guessing you know it will take four to sign him. I'm guessing 4 for 60. I would think if he signs, they will still go for a top starter, but then go cheap in left field. Headley has back issues but is healthy now. He was having a terrible year for San Diego, but then played pretty well for the Yankees. Supposedly the meeting will take place in the next couple of days.
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2014 2:51:47 GMT -5
I believe that I read that Chase changed his batting mechanics sometime after he joined the Yankees. His renaissance actually began against the Giants on the 4th of July, half a month before he was traded to the Yankees.
He went 4 for 4 against the Giants, then went 4 for 5 against the Rockies three games later. In four games halfway through the season he raised his average from .202 to .229. That's a lot of quick, heavy hitting during which he went 10 for 17.
Chase is a switch hitter who is considered to be one of the top fielding third basemen in the game. He led the NL in RBI's in 2012 with 115.
That season appears to have been an aberration though, as he has dropped of considerably the past two seasons. As Mark mentioned, he's had injury problems in the past. He is projected to sign for 4/$56, so he'll be only about $5 million cheaper than Pablo.
That said, $5 million could provide for a nice pitching upgrade or a strong left fielder. Given how well they performed with Gregor Blanco in the lineup, they might be able to go cheap in left field and maybe sign Jonny Gomes and/or Chris Denorfia.
If they go on the cheap at third base, Alberto Callaspo might be a possiblity. Somehow the Giants will likely find a way to get a second-tier starter.
Still lots of excitement to come this winter. As the song says, the best is yet to come.
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 29, 2014 7:54:09 GMT -5
It would be hard to believe that the Giants will sign Headley and stop talking to the top tier starting pitchers they're interested in. I think they know that signing Headley after losing Pablo will still be construed by the fan base as a huge step back. Starting pitching is the priority, and I think that even though they're meeting with Lester this week, they're going to focus on Scherzer as their top priority. Lester has already gotten huge offers from the Cubs and Red Sox and most teams have been scared off of Scherzer because of Boras. If they decide Scherzer and Headley together is to expensive, it will be Headley they'll pass on. Thst being said, I expect them to attempt to sign both with heavy back loading, knowing a lot of salary will be coming off next year.
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2014 10:54:17 GMT -5
Good thinking here. What you say makes a lot of sense.
I like your idea of going after one of the big three starters along with Headley. Gregor Blanco has shown he can be an outfielder who won't kill you. The thing about NOT signing Headley is that the drop off is so big.
If the Giants can fill what now might be viewed as the two top needs, they should be able to scramble in left field. They could likely find a right-handed hitting complement to Blanco, hopefully one who would be good enough to play almost every day in the event of an injury to one of the three starting outfielders (including Blanco). Pagan is such an injury risk the Giants shouldn't cut themselves TOO short in the outfield.
That might also be the position the Giants shore up at the trade deadline.
So I'm with you, Mark. Headley and a top three pitcher. Then throw in a cheap outfielder or two. With backloads, that should be doable. I'll bet that's the Giants' Plan B now that Plan A has gone to the collegiate center of the world.
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2014 11:00:52 GMT -5
I'm actually feeling good about things now. The Giants could move Belt up in the order, or put Headley in the middle. If they wished to lengthen the middle of the order, they could lead off with Blanco and include Pagan.
They could potentially have a middle of the order including Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence, Pagan and Headley, possibly in that order. More likely Pagan would lead off, and Blanco would bat 7th.
Their rotation could include a strong top three of Bumgarner, the top three free agent pitcher and Cain. The bottom wouldn't be too bad with Hudson and either Lincecum or Petit.
With two of the young relievers replacing Romo and Gutierrez, the bullpen should once again be good. Maybe the Giants could squeeze out enough money to sign a 2nd-tier reliever to keep their experience level high.
Mark, you've come up with a plan I like, and frankly I'm feeling a lot better.
The bullpen
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 29, 2014 14:02:25 GMT -5
The Giants are supposedly one of the three finalists for Lester, so I'm happy to hear that today. After losing Pablo to the Red Sox it will be interesting to see the competition between the two for Lester.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 29, 2014 19:41:17 GMT -5
I think the baseball Gods must be pissed off at the Giants or more probably at Giants fans. We seem destined to be runner ups in every big FA signing
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 29, 2014 20:31:53 GMT -5
3 championships in 5 years would prove that theory wrong. Perhaps Sabean just likes to run up the market value for players then picks the mid to lower level free agents without much competition. Whatever he does, it seems to work.
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2014 21:59:06 GMT -5
The Giants have indeed finished second a few times, especially in the international marketplace. As disappointing as a second place finish is (not any better than finishing last), it does show the Giants are coming close. It may also show that they're not overvaluing the top players, which in the long run is a good thing.
If we look at the Giants' signings, they have fared poorly with the top tier, better with the second tier, and best of all with the bargain basement.
I'm excited this off season. The Giants pursued on of the top free agents hard (their own third baseman, Pablo Sandoval). They finished second in that one too, but frankly, that could be a blessing in disguise. Pablo might have peaked in this past post season.
I'm expecting the Giants to strike quickly with one or even two players. Then I'm expecting them to slow down and see who falls between the cracks. The Giants struck quickly with Tim Hudson last November 18th. Maybe this year it will be Chase Headley, who is visiting San Francisco this coming week. Both players would be considered 2nd tier free agents.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 30, 2014 3:28:12 GMT -5
scraping off the bottom of the barrel might have worked once or twice but I wouldn't try it too often
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2014 9:53:26 GMT -5
Randy -- scraping off the bottom of the barrel might have worked once or twice but I wouldn't try it too often Rog -- The ideal scraping signing is for a position where you don't have a true need but are looking for depth. One of the best San Francisco scraping signings was Juan Uribe. Juan wasn't counted on to start; the Giants signed Edgar Renteria for that. But Uribe went on to become one of the most valuable utility players the Giants have had, helping them to the 2010 World Series. Some signings slightly higher in the barrel were counted on -- Aubrey Huff and Mike Morse. They panned out. Ryan Vogelsong was originally a barrel bottom signing, but this past season he was the slightly higher in the barrel guy who was counted on. He wasn't great, but he wasn't bad. He was signed as a fifth starter, and for that role he was pretty darn good. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley#ixzz3KYzsxWrN
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2014 10:29:53 GMT -5
He might have been signed as the fifth starter, but as you saw in the playoffs he was the number four starter, and he's just not good enough to be that on a contender. That's why I'm glad to see the Giants looking for a true ace right now. Put someone like Lester in there and suddenly this staff becomes elite. Hudson and Lincecum slide down to four and five, and even a modest Lincecum bounce back year makes him one of the best fifth starters around. The downgrade of the rotation was one of the reasons the Giants weren't as good as usual at home this year. Put a Lester in the rotation and a third baseman who can pick it like Headley, and the Giants home record alone should be enough to get them in the playoffs.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 30, 2014 15:07:06 GMT -5
Mark:
Put a Lester in the rotation and a third baseman who can pick it like Headley, and the Giants home record alone should be enough to get them in the playoffs.
---boly says---
Mark I hadn't thought of it the way you phrased it: with Lester, our rotation suddenly becomes elite. Not sure if I agree with that because to my mind ONLY Bumgarner and Lester would be "elite."
IF....IF Cain rebounds, he's VERY good. But to my mind, not elite.
Still, the top three slots would be OUTSTANDING!
As to Headley. He's really not my first choice. Like others have said, we need an OUTFIELDER first; a 3Bman, second.
I think we can look inside, at least for a while after the season starts, and fill that spot.
I'd go for DEFENSE first, and this my choice of Duffy, and THEN pick up someone along the way.
But we need a Melky Cabrera type guy for LF. I don't want to sacrifice too much defense out there for pop.
boly
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2014 17:33:36 GMT -5
Jon Lester is reportedly going to sign in the next couple of days. Supposedly the Yankees are in it now as well, so I'm thinking it won't be us that signs him. I doubt we win a bidding war with the Yankees and Red Sox are involved.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 30, 2014 21:43:17 GMT -5
gee, where have I heard that tune before?
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Post by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2014 23:30:59 GMT -5
Matt Kemp is supposedly about to be traded to the Orioles for a package led by Bud Norris! Is this what their new GM will be doing for them? Keep up the good work!
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2014 9:35:48 GMT -5
Boly -- As to Headley. He's really not my first choice. Like others have said, we need an OUTFIELDER first; a 3Bman, second. Rog -- If the Giants need an outfielder first and a third baseman second, why were most of us rooting for them to re-sign Pablo? I think in part that was because of how much better we viewed him than other replacements. If we look at left field, Gregor Blanco isn't what we're looking for, but especially if coupled with a decent platoon partner, he wouldn't be the end of the world -- just as last season didn't end when both Angel Pagan and Mike Morse went down. The alternatives at third base are clearly weaker. Joaquin Arias is a possibility, but he is also a possibility to be non-tendered, traded or DFA'd. Matt Duffy doesn't have a corner infielder's bat, and he is unproven both at third base and in the big leagues. Gregor Blanco is certainly more proven than Duffy, and he's a better fielder. Boly -- I think we can look inside, at least for a while after the season starts, and fill that spot. Rog -- Where would we look? I suspect Duffy would be best served by starting the season as the Sacramento shortstop. Not that he can't hit, but even Buster Posey and Brandon Belt fine tuned themselves with a stint at Fresno. Brandon Crawford didn't, and he struggled mightily at the plate in the beginning, barely reaching .200. Belt himself had only a brief stint at Fresno, and he too struggled mightily in the beginning. Boly -- I'd go for DEFENSE first, and this my choice of Duffy, and THEN pick up someone along the way. Rog -- If the Giants go for defense first, wouldn't they choose Blanco over Duffy? Gregor is both a better defender, and he would also be far more proven at his position. Boly -- But we need a Melky Cabrera type guy for LF. I don't want to sacrifice too much defense out there for pop. Rog -- One could make an argument that Melky and Duffy would make better hitters than Blanco and Chase Headley (although that's far from a certainty), but defensively the Giants would be far better off with Blanco and Headley, both of whom are excellent defenders. Some consider Headley to be the best fielding third baseman in the game. If the Giants are going to stress speed and defense, the Blanco/Headley combination would seem a clearly better fit than Melky/Duffy. I doubt the Giants are open to a return by Melky. If they are, he's a good left fielder. But isn't he less ahead of Blanco than Headley is ahead of Duffy, who may well need time in Sacramento before he is ready to start for the Giants? There are several good replacements for left field. Only Headley appears to be a strong replacement at the hot corner. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley#ixzz3Kcl54bx0
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 1, 2014 11:17:02 GMT -5
Roger, I disagree with so much of your post, I really don't know where to begin.
1-I said defense first, I did NOT say exclusively. Sure I'll keep Blanco... as the # 4 or 5 outfielder
2-I also said we had a potent lineup without Pablo
3-I said because we had such a potent lineup without Pablo, we could afford to OPEN the season with the kid at 3B.
4-I said I'd give the kid a shot, not hand him the job.
5-I never said we needed a 1B-man
6-I never said I wanted to Keep Pablo at ridiculous money. In fact, I said just the opposite.
7-I've been very specific in my thoughts; 1-Pitching, 2 LF, 3 Posey to 3B, Susac behind the plate.
8-I SAID I'd pursue a LF first, but IF I couldn't find one, I'd move MORSE to 1B, and Belt to LF
Where you came up with "If the Giants need an outfielder first and a third baseman second," did not come from me.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 1, 2014 13:31:10 GMT -5
Boly -- As to Headley. He's really not my first choice.
Dood - I'd surely LOVE to hear who your first choice is. Headley was a distant second to Pablo in this year's crop of FA third basemen. It goes down sharply again behind Headley. I am of the opinion that 3rd base is NOT one of those positions that you can simply just stick a soft hitting glove man out there or try to pick someone up off the scrap heap to fill in. VERY much against the idea of sticking a kid with zero experience there and NO experience starting above the AA level. That's a train wreck waiting to happen. All of these factors are why Pablo was THE choice to make.
2-I also said we had a potent lineup without Pablo
Dood - really? Even without Pablo AND the still unsigned Morse? I really don't see it that way. In fact if the Giants don't outbid the big money clubs for either Lester or Sherzer, I can see the Giants finishing 3rd or 4th in the West in 2015.
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2014 15:04:04 GMT -5
Boly -- Roger, I disagree with so much of your post, I really don't know where to begin. 1-I said defense first, I did NOT say exclusively. Sure I'll keep Blanco... as the # 4 or 5 outfielder Rog -- I'm right with you regarding signing players based on their total qualifications. And I agree with your assessment of Gregor. I simply believe that Gregor is closer to filling the Giants' need for a left fielder than Matt Duffy is of filling the third base position. Neither is the protypical hitter for his position, but Gregor is an excellent fielder, while Matt is unproven at third base and not a star defensively elsewhere. (I'm a fan of Matt, by the way, although I feel he might need more seasoning. Not sure of that, but it is my belief.) Boly -- 2-I also said we had a potent lineup without Pablo Rog -- I think the Giants' lineup right now without Pablo or Morse is average at best. Boly -- 3-I said because we had such a potent lineup without Pablo, we could afford to OPEN the season with the kid at 3B. Rog -- I'm just not sure about Matt at the hot corner. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to handle the position defensively, but I believe he has played only three games there. I think he'll hit, but it might be asking too much for him to skip AAA for at least a while. Boly -- 4-I said I'd give the kid a shot, not hand him the job. Rog -- The Giants have only Joaquin Arias to compete realistically with Matt. The Giants could wing it until the trade deadline, but I'd like to see them fill the need now. Other needs may crop up at the deadline, particularly in the outfield and rotation. Boly - 5-I never said we needed a 1B-man Rog -- I certainly agree with you there. If I posted otherwise, I must have perpetrated a typo. Boly -- 6-I never said I wanted to Keep Pablo at ridiculous money. In fact, I said just the opposite. Rog -- We may have been in the minority, but I agreed with you and have mentioned that Pablo might have saved the Giants from themselves. Boly -- 7-I've been very specific in my thoughts; 1-Pitching, 2 LF, 3 Posey to 3B, Susac behind the plate. Rog -- I like that idea too, but for the moment the Giants appear to be committed to Buster behind the plate. Boly -- 8-I SAID I'd pursue a LF first, but IF I couldn't find one, I'd move MORSE to 1B, and Belt to LF Rog -- That's a plan I have mentioned as well. The thing that makes it the toughest is that Mike has been forecast at 2/$20 or 1/$15. I may like it better than the other possibilities. If the Giants signed Headley and Morse, I think they could still afford a 2nd-tier starter. Might not be the worst way to go. The Giants are likely pursuing trades too, but they don't have loads and loads to offer -- especially without impacting their future. Boly -- Where you came up with "If the Giants need an outfielder first and a third baseman second," did not come from me. Rog -- I guess I misunderstood. I'm sorry. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley#ixzz3Kg4EcPZZ
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2014 15:06:11 GMT -5
If the Giants sign one of the big three pitchers, I think they would have to go very cheaply at third and in left. It may be that Lester or Headley defines their direction as soon as this week.
If they go pitching, I hope it will be Scherzer.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 1, 2014 17:08:02 GMT -5
Lots of big money coming off the books after 2014 though. Casilla, Affeldt, and both Tims off the top of my head. That's 40 million dollars just there. The Giants could easily fit in Lester and Headley by paying them less in the first year and back loading it starting year two. I'm predicting right now that they won't start the year with someone like Duffy or Arias at third. If they can't afford both I would expect them to get a lesser pitcher.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 1, 2014 17:09:52 GMT -5
They really have no choice BUT to go with pitching at this point, unless they make a MAJOR shakeup. All the decent bats at their specific areas of need are taken now.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 1, 2014 17:15:07 GMT -5
I'm predicting right now that they won't start the year with someone like Duffy or Arias at third
Dood - Would you be basing this "prediction" on the fact that the Giants have already stated publicly that the next 3rd baseman isn't currently in the organization?
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 1, 2014 19:36:49 GMT -5
Actually Bobby Evans raised the possibility that the next third baseman IS in the organization if they decide to add a middle of the lineup hitter to left field. Now that they've lost out on Tomas and don't have the "major league ready" players to acquire someone like Justin Upton, I'm pretty sure they'll get a third baseman.
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Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2014 23:00:27 GMT -5
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 2, 2014 9:46:32 GMT -5
Hunter is too old, and Markakis is scary to me because his numbers are ordinary in a hitter's ballpark and he has already turned down 4 for 48. I wouldn't mind Rios, but only if he's dirt cheap and of course I would love Melky, but I'd be afraid he's burned some bridges here with his 2012 teammates. We might find out no later than today their plan for LF as it's non tender day. If they non tender Blanco it tells you they're looking for a big left fielder. Tendering him probably doesn't tell you as much. I think he'll be tendered though. Even if they go for an expensive left fielder, he's important insurance for the always injured Pagan.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 2, 2014 11:11:44 GMT -5
Boly -- As to Headley. He's really not my first choice.
Dood - I'd surely LOVE to hear who your first choice is. Headley was a distant second to Pablo in this year's crop of FA third basemen. It goes down sharply again behind Headley. I am of the opinion that 3rd base is NOT one of those positions that you can simply just stick a soft hitting glove man out there or try to pick someone up off the scrap heap to fill in. VERY much against the idea of sticking a kid with zero experience there and NO experience starting above the AA level. That's a train wreck waiting to happen. All of these factors are why Pablo was THE choice to make.
*****---boly says----**** I've already said what my first choice was, is and continues to be, Randy, but I'll repeat it.
1-I don't sign a FA 3Bman. I fill the position internally in one of the two following ways.
A-I give the Kid, Duffy, the first shot in Spring Training B-I move Posey to 3B, and install Susac as the catcher.
2-I move Belt to LF
3-I move Morse to 1B
4-I spend the large majority of our money on a top starter, and a slightly lesser guy # 2.
IF it's ME... I purse Lester and Shields big time.
2-I also said we had a potent lineup without Pablo
Dood - really? Even without Pablo AND the still unsigned Morse? I really don't see it that way. In fact if the Giants don't outbid the big money clubs for either Lester or Sherzer, I can see the Giants finishing 3rd or 4th in the West in 2015.
****---boly says----*****
I've spelled out my lineup before, but here it is again.
Pagan CF Panik 2B Belt LF Posey C/3B Pence RF Morse 1B Crawford SS Duffy 3B
3 through 6 is pretty solid.
Obviously I would resign Morse.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 2, 2014 12:35:03 GMT -5
Too many "if"s to say that this lineup is potent, Boly. IF we resign Morse and IF he is healthy. IF Duffy doesn't become an automatic out. IF Pagan stays healthy and productive. IF there is no sophomore slump for Panik. IF Belt doesn't go on his famous funks. IF Pence can regain his 2013 form. IF Posey's power isn't a thing of the past. It COULD be potent if all these ifs come to pass. If not...not so much.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 2, 2014 13:39:12 GMT -5
But Randy, I said "slots 3-6 were potent." I didn't mention anyone else.
And yes, Morse "is" a bit of a question mark, but without him in the OF every day, our chances are better for him not getting hurt.
Then again, one year it was his wrist, last year, and oblique. Not the same kind of injury.
boly
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