Giants to meet with Chase Headley

[sfgdood]

well actually your words were "without Pablo the lineup is potent" and I don't tend to agree with that. And then you said 3-6 were pretty solid...I'd say that's a maybe at this point.

[Islandboagie]

The Giants were pathetic WITH Pablo in the lineup in June and July. It's only when Panik was called up that the Giants started hitting again. If Panik continues his success at the major league level it will be a bigger boost to our offense than the void left by not having Pablo. As long as we can find a guy to put up Pablo-like numbers in the middle of the lineup we'll be better offensively than we were last season. Meeting those expectations isn't exactly a tall order to fill. Basically we're just looking for a mediocre run producer. Chase Headley would likely suffice.

[klaiggeb]

My only problem with Headley, Boagie is actually 2 fold.

One, how much he'd cost, and I don't think he's worth what he's asking

And Two, his recent injury history.


Most "experts," for whatever that's worth, agree that he's on the down side of his career, and slipping fast.

boly

[sfgdood]

The Giants were pathetic WITH Pablo in the lineup in June and July.

Dood - True, but not BECAUSE of Pablo. The Panda hit over 300 in both of those months.




It's only when Panik was called up that the Giants started hitting again. If Panik continues his success at the major league level it will be a bigger boost to our offense than the void left by not having Pablo.

Dood - possibly but I think we can expect the league to adjust to Joe next year and a bit of a sophomore slump is not unforeseeable.



As long as we can find a guy to put up Pablo-like numbers in the middle of the lineup we'll be better offensively than we were last season.

Dood - a big if and some wishful thinking.




Meeting those expectations isn't exactly a tall order to fill. Basically we're just looking for a mediocre run producer. Chase Headley would likely suffice.

Dood - assuming Headley can repeat his one big year--not a given by any means--the offense could indeed be good. Then again, getting Headley wont be easy with this front office who seems to come in second with each of their FA targets. And of course IF the team reaches postseason, who's going to replace Pablo's "mediocre" stats there?

[Rog]

Boagie -- It's only when Panik was called up that the Giants started hitting again.

Rog -- Joe was called up on June 21st. The Giants began hitting on July 13th. Between June 21st and July 12th, they scored 51 runs in 21 games. Joe himself began hitting on August 4th. Entering that game, he was hitting just .200.

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[Rog]

Boagie -- If Panik continues his success at the major league level it will be a bigger boost to our offense than the void left by not having Pablo.

Rog -- The thing is that last season the Giants had BOTH Pablo and in the second half of the season, Joe. I have liked Joe for a long time, and he certainly helped out a lot last season, filling a huge void at second base. But take a guess at how many runs he scored. Take a crack at how many he drove in.


Those numbers are 31 and 18. Shocking, isn't it? Where Joe excelled was in keeping innings GOING. That is a skill that is too often overlooked. But the fact is that Joe didn't quite score a run every 8 at bats, and he drove one in only every 15 trips.

Joe hit .305, but his OPS was .711. That was lower than any other regular and behind both Andrew Susac and even Travis Ishikawa. Heck, it was behind MADISON BUMGARNER!

I'm not trying to put Joe down. He's probably my favorite position player, certainly no lower than second. I'm simply trying to put him into perspective.

He's better than his runs RBI totals would indicate, but he's just one of many who make the Giants' offense good. The strength of the Giants' offense is its depth. When your #8 hitter drives in 69 runs, you've got a pretty deep lineup.

The reason Joe was so important is that he filled the biggest void on the team. And played fine defense at second base and showed a heady game in addition to his good hitting.

Joe plays the game like a 10-year veteran. More fundamentally solid that even most 10-year guys.

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[Rog]

Randy -- I think we can expect the league to adjust to Joe next year and a bit of a sophomore slump is not unforeseeable.

Rog -- Joe hit just .233 in the postseason.

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[Rog]

Boagie -- As long as we can find a guy to put up Pablo-like numbers in the middle of the lineup we'll be better offensively than we were last season.

Dood - a big if and some wishful thinking.

Rog -- Pablo's numbers (regular season, at least) won't be that tough to replace. There are several left fielders out there who have a good chance of hitting at Pablo's level, and as strange as this sounds, I think Chase Headley could be as good a hitter as Pablo over the next four or five seasons, or at least close to it.

One thing Chase does that Pablo doesn't is get on base via the walk. He's also more powerful than Pablo. And has driven in a lot more runs in a single season (115 to Pablo's best of 90). Not as good an average hitter though. Even in Chase's wonderful 2012 season, he hit just .285.

Chase is also considered a better base runner and an even better fielder than Pablo. Chase won't come cheaply. Probably 4/$50-$60. But even at that cost, I expect him to be a better bargain the Pablo.

I could well be wrong. Chase hasn't been a very good hitter the past two seasons. But he is said to have changed his stroke when he went to the Yankees in a mid-season trade last season, and he hit pretty decently for them.

Chase's career OPS+ is a good 113. Pablo's is a very good 123. (100 is average.) The past two seasons Chase's OPS+ have been 116 and 102. Pablo's have been 116 and 111. In 2012, Chase's was 145, easily topping Pablo's 123. In other words, over the past three regular seasons, Chase has been at least as good a hitter as Pablo.

Chase relied heavily on his 2012 season though, while Pablo has been more level.


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[Rog]

Dood - assuming Headley can repeat his one big year--not a given by any means--the offense could indeed be good.

Rog -- I doubt very much that Chase will be able to duplicate his 2012 season. For a long time that season he was considered a top MVP candidate along with Buster Posey and Andrew McCutcheon. Headley eventually finished 5th in the MVP voting, in addition to winning a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger.

But that season appears to be an outlier in his career. The point though is that he's been decent without that season. Decent hitting, solid base running and Gold Glove-level defense has a nice value.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3Ko5IxOnd

[Rog]

Just for fun, over the past three seasons Chase Headley has 214 RBI's compared to Pablo's 215. He has scored 209 runs compared to Pablo's 179. And he has hit 57 homers compared to Pablo's 52. He has 204 walks compared to Pablo's 124. Where he lags is with 417 hits compared to Pablo's 432. Actually, that's even pretty close, although he has 86 more at bats than Pablo.

When one throws in defense, over the past three seasons Chase has been a better player than Pablo. That said, over the past two or the past four, he arguably hasn't been as good. Still, Chase has 7.3 Wins Above Replacement the past two seasons compared to Pablo's 6.0. And over the past four seasons, he has 16.4 WAR compared to Pablo's 14.2.

The difference there has been their gloves. Chase has been consistently good with the leather. Pablo has been more inconsistent.

Here's something to consider: Although this may cause you to question WAR, Chase's 16.4 WAR over the past four seasons is clearly higher than Jon Lester's 12.7. Much of that is that everyday players usually gain more WAR than pitchers.

But it is possible Chase Headley could be a far better bargain than Jon Lester, as strange as that sounds.

[rxmeister]

Don't know what's going on with Lester right now, but apparently Bochy has spent the entire week with him in Atlanta, and he just sold his home in Boston. Got to be good signs, right?

[Rog]

Mark -- Don't know what's going on with Lester right now, but apparently Bochy has spent the entire week with him in Atlanta, and he just sold his home in Boston. Got to be good signs, right?

Rog -- Yeah. It means the Giants are going to finish second again!

Nice guys finish ... second.

I didn't realize Bruce had spent the entire week with him. That does seem to be a good sign.

I guess I'm just down on all the free agents though. I'm really excited and want them to sign him for the excitement, yet I don't think he's worth the money and aside from the excitement, hope they don't sign him.

On the other hand, pitching seems to be so important in the off season that he may earn his keep if the Giants can consistently make the postseason, which of course he himself would aid.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3KqL59vd1

[Rog]

What about Chase Headley? He was supposed to meet with the Giants this week, but I haven't heard anything more about it.

Tough for them to entertain him if everybody's in Atlanta.

[Rog]

How many extra wins DOES a pitcher like Jon Lester mean?

There's no way to pin it down exactly, but I decided to do a little test.

I took his team's record in the games he didn't have a decision. I calculated the winning percentage in those games. I then multiplied his number of decisions times that winning percentage to estimate how many wins his teams would have achieved in those games without him.

In Jon's case, he has gone an impressive 116-67. That's a .634 winning percentage. Without him, his teams have gone 760-677. That's a .529 winning percentage. Jon has essentially given his team a 10% better chance of winning.

Without him, his teams would have presumably gone 97-86. By this analysis, Jon has been worth an extra 19 wins to his teams. That's over the equivalent of 8 seasons. Jon has been worth an extra 2.4 wins per season to his teams.

This analysis is very rough. I haven't looked to see how Jon's run support has compared to the other starters on his team. My guess though is that his run support has been pretty good.

And in fact, it has been 6.11, 6.09, 5.56, 5.04, 5.07, 5.32, 4.02, 5.03 and 4.09. That's VERY good run support.

My point here is that pitchers may not be worth as many extra wins as we would think. I don't want to trivialize this. A team of players who perform at the level of Jon Lester would be worth something like 9 times 2.4 wins, or 21.6 wins. That team would in theory win 103 games. Any team would take that.

But that team even WITHOUT Jon Lester would be extremely good, winning in theory about 100 games. Whether the Giants sign Jon or not probably isn't nearly as important as we think it is. Especially since the $25 million or so they would need to pay him could be used in other ways to improve the team.

I'm open to questions of the logic here and to ways to improve it.

[rxmeister]

The Chase Headley market is very very quiet, which makes me think that he's exclusively talking to one team and the others are conceding him at least until those talks fall through. Logic says it's the Giants, but there's always that magical mystery team floating in the background.

[Rog]

Mark -- but there's always that magical mystery team

Rog -- On a tour, no doubt.

[rxmeister]

And it's coming to take Chase away, take him today.

[Rog]

It has been written that Chase has a 4/$65 offer in hand. That could be from the Giants, but whether it is or not, OUCH!

Once again, it's supply and demand. When Pablo Sandoval was snatched out of the picture by the Red Sox, Headley became the only game in town, aside from shall we say bargain first floor types.

Entering the free agency period, I saw the following projections for Headley:

4/$48
4/$52
1/$10
3/$36

Those seem slightly different from 4/$65.

The market seems to be slipping away from the Giants -- and the other teams who have yet to act.

It has been written that the Giants are focusing on third base and pitching, while being willing to go with Blanco/Perez/Ishikawa in left if necessary. My best guess would be that they go with something of the bargain basement types we have previously discussed.

I haven't heard much about Ervin Santana, but when the big pitchers finally sign, then he will jump to near the top of the pack. That means scarcity and this high price.

I think the Giants need to solidify their pitching and third base targets and act. Prices just keep going up. Pick up the big pieces, then see what sifts to the bottom for a potential bargain in left field. The Giants could use two outfield bargains.

Sergio Romo is going to make a ton of money, so I don't expect him to be back with the Giants. Maybe they have the inside track regarding Jake Peavy, but he'll hardly be a bargain by the time that is settled. There are few hot corner options aside from Headley, and there is a huge drop off to get to them. Even then, their number is limited.

If they miss out on Headley, the Giants may have to turn to the trade market. Perhaps the Marlins will be the team to land Headley (although it doesn't sound like it), and Casey McGeehee will become available. Matt Duffy is looking better all the time. Maybe the Giants will get jolted by getting jilted and make the bold move of Buster Posey to third base.

Beyond Headley, there just aren't many good options the Giants seem willing to explore. And Headley at 4/$65 is scary. I think such a signing could work out, but it would be fraught with risk.

Jake Peavy is looking better and better all the time, as well, although personally I'm leaning toward Ervin Santana or Jason Hammel and/or -- heaven forbid -- the bargain basement.

Trades are looking better and better all the time too, but what do the Giants have to trade that they can afford to give up? And what is available? I heard the Giants are looking at the lead off man from an AL playoff team, but I can't figure out who that would be.

The 19-year-old Cuban sensation Moncado is in the country now, but it is still unknown when he will have gone through all the read tape necessary to be available to MLB teams.

This whole thing is turning into a mess, so Brian Sabean's talents will surely be tested.

[rxmeister]

Bobby Evans said that everyone is asking for their top prospects in trade talks and they're unwilling to do that, so unless the demands drop, they won't be doing anything in the trade market. I don't think any of their prospects qualify as untouchable, so this might just be posturing on the Giants part. However, Rog, they don't sound like the FA market is getting away from them, they're talking like a team that is right there with the big spenders. Once that Pablo money is gone, I'm sure they'll be back looking for bargains again though. Evans was asked about the 4/65 offer for Headley and the way he talked about it being a fair offer for him it made me wonder if the Giants are the ones who made it!

[Rog]

Mark -- Evans was asked about the 4/65 offer for Headley and the way he talked about it being a fair offer for him it made me wonder if the Giants are the ones who made it!

Rog -- Certainly sounds like it, doesn't it? If the Giants spend that much on Chase and also sign Lester, they'll already have exceeded the budge I thought they had -- although not necessarily if they do enough back loading. It would seem to me as if Headley would jump on a 4/$65 offer, so I wonder if the offer is contingent on the Giants' not signing Lester.

That would buy the Giants time, while also helping Headley drive up his potential price.

Has anyone heard anything about Headley's supposed trip to San Francisco this week? One might think the Giants were keeping it on the QT, but if so, why would they have mentioned it in the first place, and how did the 4/$65 offer get out (assuming it is from the Giants).

Another possibility, by the way, is that the Giants are Chase's first choice (because of the three World Championships and possibly because of the town itself) and they have told him if he waits until after the potential Lester signing, they will match up to the 4/$65 offer he already has (if it's from another team), and they would re-evaluate if they had to go even higher than 4/$65.

Certainly sounds though as if the offer is the Giants', or else they are willing to match it.

One thing about Headley is that he wouldn't seem to make much sense for the free-spending Dodgers, since they already have Juan Uribe. So I wouldn't think the Giants would be blown out of the water at the last minute as they perhaps have been with Lester.

I've got to think that when one of the big three pitchers signs, there would be a domino effect among starting pitching. And possibly a Headley signing will set off a chain reaction among the much lower third base candidates.

The outfielders have obviously begun to move. I wonder if the Drew Miller signing will open things up for Sergio Romo. I don't see how the Giants can afford to re-sign him unless he is willing to give a big hometown discount, and even then I would think he would be part of Plan C or Plan D (or perhaps Plan R).

Glad to hear Bobby Evans say that the Giants won't be left at the starting gate. That makes it sound as if they have their dominoes lined up once the big domino falls.

I'm leery of these big signings. Many could be deals that look good the first two or three years and then deteriorate as the player ages. I've been a booster of Chase Headley, but even his new price seems too high to me.

One thing that could help the Giants is that by receiving a draft choice for losing Pablo Sandoval, they might be more willing to dig into a player with a qualifying offer. They would essentially be trading draft picks in order to sign a player whose price tag falls due to the compensation.

That certainly happened with Kyle Lohse two years ago and with Ervin Santana last year. I do think though that teams are re-evaluating the value of a high pick and will be less put off by having to lose one. Especially in the case of the Giants where they already have one in the bank.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3L3mlEVta

[rxmeister]

I think both Lester and Headley are both waiting for someone to blink and toss them an extra year before they make a final decision. As for who made Headley that offer, I've heard it scared the Marlins off if true, so it isn't them. I heard an interesting theory that the Dodgers really aren't interested, but are just in there to make the Giants overspend on Lester. I've also heard the Giants really put on a full court press, sending Sabean, Bochy and Hudson to talk to him, and even Buster Posey and Jake Peavy supposedly talked to him about it.

[sfgdood]

Why would an unsigned FA, Peavy, lobby on behalf of any team at this point? Makes no sense

[Rog]

Randy -- Why would an unsigned FA, Peavy, lobby on behalf of any team at this point? Makes no sense

Rog -- That would tend to indicate one of two things: Either Jake would like to play for the Giants and is hoping both he and Lester will be teammates. Or Jake feels that the team he wants might sign him if they miss out on Lester (which a Giants signing would accomplish).

Kind of seems like the former though, doesn't it? I agree that other than one of the two reasons above, I can't see how it work in Jake's favor.

One other possibility: Maybe Jake likes his former teammate and thinks Lester would indeed enjoy playing for the Giants, who perhaps have expressed to Jake that he isn't likely to return.

On the fact of it, it doesn't make sense. But at some level, it does. We just don't necessarily know what that level is.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3L5ETxnf5

[rxmeister]

Peavy and Lester are very close, and from what I've heard, Rog's theory on Peavy talking to Lester is pretty much right on. Cafardo said that Peavy isn't pushing Lester to SF as he's a free agent himself, but he's told him how much fun it was to play for the Giants last year and his experiences in San Francisco. He's also told him about the differences between SF and Boston for a player. Certainly as a free agent the Giants haven't enlisted him to sell the team as they've done with Hudson.

[klaiggeb]

As much fun as this time of year is 'fun' for some, for me, it really isn't.

It's painful.

The waiting and waiting and waiting.

There are players we'd like, but likely can't afford: Players we all know we need, but because Sabean and crew are so tight lipped, which I DO appreciate, makes it even harder because as fans, we really can't hang our proverbial 'hopes' on someone because to do so sets one up for heartbreak.

I'll take the games one the field over the 'games' off the field any day.

boly

[sfgdood]

EXACTLY!

[Rog]

Boly -- As much fun as this time of year is 'fun' for some, for me, it really isn't.

It's painful.

The waiting and waiting and waiting.

Rog -- But that's part of what makes it exciting. Think back over the 340 days to date in 2014. Think Giants only. Aside from the playoffs, were there any days greeted with such pressure-filled anticipation as the days so far this off-season?

One could argue the opening of Spring Training, but even that is divided into pitchers and catchers, formal opening of camp, and first Spring Training game. One could argue Opening Day, but while the anticipation may have been as big or bigger, it wasn't pressure-filled. There were still 161 games to go.

One could argue down the stretch of the regular season, but it was pretty clear the Giants would make the playoffs well before the final game was played. One could argue during the Giants' horrible mid-season stretch, but that was more angst than anticipation.

There have been so many things to watch:

Will Pablo sign, or won't he? If he signs, will he be postseason Pablo, regular season Pablo, or overweight Pablo? Then, why the heck DIDN'T he sign?

Should the Giants chase Headley? Would he be closer to 2012 MVP candidate Headley or the one who hit .243 this past season? Would he be the Headley who rebounded with the Yankees the second half of last season, or the guy who failed so miserably with the Padres the first half?

Oh, wow! The Giants might sign Jon Lester, arguably the top free agent out of the scores of free agents. Would that make them even better, with a rotation headed by Cy Young-type pitchers in Lester, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Probably a couple of Hall of Famers in that bunch, and 12 All-Star teams between them. Seven top 5 Cy Young finishes.

Oh, and just as an aside, is there any chance of a bounce back from two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, now two weeks back into working with his dad, something he hasn't done since his 2009 Cy Young season?

I think the difference between us, Boly, is that you dread the tension (waiting and waiting and waiting) of the off season, while I love it. Sure, right now I wish we knew about Lester, that we knew about Headley, that we knew if there will be any other good players or whether it will be retreads.

But isn't tension a big part of what makes sports exciting? If we knew the outcome of every game, would we enjoy watching as much? If we knew the outcome of the season?

You're admittedly a cup half empty guy, Boly, which makes you dread the likely disappointments of this post season, which for some (not you or I) has already begun when Pablo Sandoval didn't re-sign. I'm cup half full, which gives me the excitement of looking FORWARD to the moves the Giants will make.

Will those moves turn out well? We don't really know. And for me, that's a big part of the excitement.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3L8tkY7KO

[Rog]

Boly -- As much fun as this time of year is 'fun' for some, for me, it really isn't.

It's painful.

The waiting and waiting and waiting.

Rog -- But that's part of what makes it exciting. Think back over the 340 days to date in 2014. Think Giants only. Aside from the playoffs, were there any days greeted with such pressure-filled anticipation as the days so far this off-season?

One could argue the opening of Spring Training, but even that is divided into pitchers and catchers, formal opening of camp, and first Spring Training game. One could argue Opening Day, but while the anticipation may have been as big or bigger, it wasn't pressure-filled. There were still 161 games to go.

One could argue down the stretch of the regular season, but it was pretty clear the Giants would make the playoffs well before the final game was played. One could argue during the Giants' horrible mid-season stretch, but that was more angst than anticipation.

There have been so many things to watch:

Will Pablo sign, or won't he? If he signs, will he be postseason Pablo, regular season Pablo, or overweight Pablo? Then, why the heck DIDN'T he sign?

Should the Giants chase Headley? Would he be closer to 2012 MVP candidate Headley or the one who hit .243 this past season? Would he be the Headley who rebounded with the Yankees the second half of last season, or the guy who failed so miserably with the Padres the first half?

Oh, wow! The Giants might sign Jon Lester, arguably the top free agent out of the scores of free agents. Would that make them even better, with a rotation headed by Cy Young-type pitchers in Lester, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Probably a couple of Hall of Famers in that bunch, and 12 All-Star teams between them. Seven top 5 Cy Young finishes.

Oh, and just as an aside, is there any chance of a bounce back from two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, now two weeks back into working with his dad, something he hasn't done since his 2009 Cy Young season?

I think the difference between us, Boly, is that you dread the tension (waiting and waiting and waiting) of the off season, while I love it. Sure, right now I wish we knew about Lester, that we knew about Headley, that we knew if there will be any other good players or whether it will be retreads.

But isn't tension a big part of what makes sports exciting? If we knew the outcome of every game, would we enjoy watching as much? If we knew the outcome of the season?

You're admittedly a cup half empty guy, Boly, which makes you dread the likely disappointments of this post season, which for some (not you or I) has already begun when Pablo Sandoval didn't re-sign. I'm cup half full, which gives me the excitement of looking FORWARD to the moves the Giants will make.

Will those moves turn out well? We don't really know. And for me, that's a big part of the excitement.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2601/giants-meet-chase-headley?page=2#ixzz3L8tkY7KO

[rxmeister]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Giants have gotten more "aggressive" in their pursuit of Headley.

[Rog]

It would be nice to sign Lester. I'd even rather have Scherzer. But I think the Giants could sign Headley and Santana and perhaps have something left over. If they can afford to sign Scherzer and Headley, that would be my first choice. If not, at the moment it would be Headley and Santana, hoping for a way to improve left field via free agency or trade.

I could go Headley and then Cole Hamels via trade, but I don't think the Giants have enough to trade to pick up Hamels. I think he'll be traded, but sadly I don't think it will be to the Giants.

I could go Headley, Melky Cabrera and Jason Hammel.

I'm warming to Lester, and I would be fine with him, Headley and the bargain basement for left field.

Because they didn't sign Sandoval, many pundits are thinking the Giants are awash in money. I'm not so sure that's true, but I am seeing signs that they're willing to spend a little more than I thought they were. But I think they will spend more only if they believe they are getting their money's worth.

I'm hoping too that the money for Moncado would come from a different part of the budget and that the Giants make the big international strike they've been hoping for by signing the precocious 19-year-old.