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Post by sharksrog on Nov 18, 2021 19:27:25 GMT -5
Boly said he wouldn't pay 2/$40 million for Justin Verlander, but the Astros paid 2/$50 million to keep him. Thoughts?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 19, 2021 9:50:10 GMT -5
They would seem to be in the best position to make that call. Not my money.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 19, 2021 11:20:03 GMT -5
To be quite frank, if it were my money, I wouldn’t own a baseball team and probably invest like those guys like Buffett or Franklin Templeton. All it takes is one crazy ownership group to throw the salaries out of whack but we have 30 such.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 19, 2021 13:19:54 GMT -5
If I could afford to own a sports franchise, I would absolutely love to do so. Major sports franchises have thus far usually been excellent investments, but if you asked a guy like the owner of the Warriors if he felt rewarded more by his investment increasing or by his ability to be around and involved in the Warriors, I can assure you he would say the latter by far.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 19, 2021 13:25:27 GMT -5
The Astros probably were indeed in the best position to make the call on Verlander. They could indeed be left holding the bag on $50 million, but in his most recent two full seasons, 2018 and 2019, Verlander's performances were valued at over $100 million between the two years. If Verlander can approach those seasons -- iffy, but certainly possible -- the Astros have put themselves in great position to return to the World Series each of the next two years.
In doing so, they took a much lesser risk than if they had re-signed Carlos Correa. Short-term contracts are risky, but they won't kill you for a prolonged period. It's the long-term pacts that can do a lot of damage. Of course, with long-term contracts, the potential reward is also much higher, which is why the best players can command them.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 22, 2021 16:46:37 GMT -5
Reports were that he had a showcase and hit 97mph.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 18:53:37 GMT -5
I think the person that thought Verlander was overvalued at 2/$40 didn't have many facts. I understand his concern about a 38-year-old pitcher coming off arm trouble, but he had no medical info, and I don't think he even knew about the showcase. The Astros took a big gamble, but they did so for only two years.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 22, 2021 21:18:22 GMT -5
I think the person that thought Verlander was overvalued at 2/$40 didn't have many facts. I understand his concern about a 38-year-old pitcher coming off arm trouble, but he had no medical info, and I don't think he even knew about the showcase. The Astros took a big gamble, but they did so for only two years. All this came out after the signing so you cannot really blame the poster.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 23, 2021 1:25:14 GMT -5
It was me that said it, not Boly. And I still maintain I don't think Verlander is worth 20 or 25 million at his age.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 23, 2021 10:29:25 GMT -5
It was me that said it, not Boly. And I still maintain I don't think Verlander is worth 20 or 25 million at his age. Thank you, boagie.
I don't read nor answer any of his posts.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 23, 2021 11:10:36 GMT -5
There are some organizations which are not too bright but Houston is not one of them. This is not a risk I would want to take for a guy who might end up in street clothes for half of this contract.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 15:02:10 GMT -5
It's a tough call on an oldie like Verlander. I will add that sometimes pitchers later don't live up to their showcases.
Sometimes it comes down to the risk tolerance of the signing organization. The Astros know Verlander, they have a great history with him, and they have a deep rotation, so they probably feel like they're in a good position to take the risk.
The risk is very high on an annual basis, but at least it's for just two seasons. I'm not in a good position to know if it's a good risk or not, but the Astros are probably in the best position.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 23, 2021 16:22:07 GMT -5
It not just the velocity, they probably liked the movement and command, also. 15 to 20 teams were at the showcase, including the Giants. If there were 20 teams there, that means anyone with money and playoff aspirations. Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, Angels, Mets, and Blue Jays were also there. One scout said "he's ready". That said, if the Giants were in on it at all, they would have been at a bidding disadvantage with Houston because of the QO offer extended and possible loss of international slot money. Let Houston spend the $50 million.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 16:28:07 GMT -5
Good point, Reeder. You know your stuff.
How do you feel about Gausman? How high would you be willing to go for him? Are there other starters you're interested in, and how do you rank them?
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 16:42:01 GMT -5
Fan Graphs had Kevin pegged as being worth $38 million last season and at $158 million over his nine year career. Given that he wasn't considered to have reached his potential until 2020 or last season, that's more than I would have expected. He'll be 31 when next season begins. I will be surprised if the Giants DON'T re-sign him.
For Kevin, accepting the Giants' QO last season is really paying off. Whether or not it be the Giants, someone will pay him nicely. Actually, we can be pretty sure the Giants WOULD pay him nicely, but someone else might wind up being willing to pay even more. I think Kevin will be back though.
I'm really hoping for Alex Cobb. Alex is 34, but he had an enticing season in 2021. He looks like a nice gamble without spending a lot of money. I haven't seen anything more on him after yesterday though, and the Giants are said to still be in the bidding for Steven Matz.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 23, 2021 16:55:00 GMT -5
Gausman faded significantly in the second half. I think part of it was possibly due to lack of spider-tack and that he lost command of the splitter. Gausman had a whole bunch of excuses in July such as wife's difficult pregnancy, newborn, fatigue. I would be a little wary of him and I think what the Giants would get will be like second half Gausman. BABIP in first half was really low and second half was high. OPS after June was significantly higher. If I were the Giants and if I thought his first half was due in part to spider-tack, I'd throw his first half stats out the window and let him walk. He may feel he deserves top dollar but I think top dollar would be a mistake.
KNBR said that the Giants are now looking at Matz. I was wrong about them not wanting to sign Desclafani and Wood but it would make sense for them to save a bit of money and go after Cobb and Matz on short term deals rather than to give Gausman a contract of three years or more at top dollar. He had a good 2021 but my every instinct is screaming not to sign Gausman to a big payday.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 17:24:01 GMT -5
You're making sense to me, Reeder. I'm backing off Jon Gray as well. He fell apart in August and September. I haven't been as high on Matz as Cobb, but I've had interest. I'll have to look and see who else might be intriguing, but I love your idea of Alex and have a lesser interest in Steven.
As of this moment, I'm rooting for Robbie Ray and Cobb. Ray would cost a compensation pick, but he's expected to be priced similarly to Gausman, and I like his chances quite a bit more. Ray has always had the stuff, but he was walking a batter every two innings. Last season he knocked off nearly two walks per nine and became something of a control pitcher at just under two and a half walks per nine. Robbie's 2.84 ERA was decently supported by his 3.60 xERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.36 xFIP and 3.21 SIERRA. He turned 30 just last month.
I'm highly intrigued by Carlos Rodon, but I'm worried that he didn't received a QO from the White Sox. I personally would be quite interested in him at 1/$18.4, but since the White Sox weren't, the concerns with his arm must be real. He'll turn 29 before next season. If he's healthy, he should be an ace. The final pitch he threw last season was 6 mph slower than his average, and he got whacked in a brief appearance in the postseason, so I guess those arm issues are real. Oh, well.
I'm not doing much better than your recommendation of Cobb and Matz, Reeder, although I would be tempted to go the extra money for Ray over Matz. I guess, as almost always, it depends on the differential.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 23, 2021 19:57:40 GMT -5
Gausman faded significantly in the second half. I think part of it was possibly due to lack of spider-tack and that he lost command of the splitter. Gausman had a whole bunch of excuses in July such as wife's difficult pregnancy, newborn, fatigue. I would be a little wary of him and I think what the Giants would get will be like second half Gausman. BABIP in first half was really low and second half was high. OPS after June was significantly higher. If I were the Giants and if I thought his first half was due in part to spider-tack, I'd throw his first half stats out the window and let him walk. He may feel he deserves top dollar but I think top dollar would be a mistake. KNBR said that the Giants are now looking at Matz. I was wrong about them not wanting to sign Desclafani and Wood but it would make sense for them to save a bit of money and go after Cobb and Matz on short term deals rather than to give Gausman a contract of three years or more at top dollar. He had a good 2021 but my every instinct is screaming not to sign Gausman to a big payday. Reed, you bring up some very good points about Gausman...ones I'd been thinking about, too.
Not the Spider Tack, but that 1st half NOT followed up by a good 2nd half.
The question needs to be asked: Why? I pitched for over 30 years and coached for longer than that, and I've never, ever seen a pitcher LOOSE command of a pitch for THAT LONG of a time period.
That's what makes me give a lot... a lot of validity to your Spider Tack point.
Again, other than Stroman, IF he's still available because I haven't checked, I don't like the other options very much.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 23, 2021 21:39:53 GMT -5
Gausman stat by month
OPS by month WHIP Apr .492 .861 May .442 .757 Jun .507 .806 Jul .809 1.541 Aug .659 1.286 Sep .752 1.175
He started struggling June 29 and the spider-tack enforcement started a couple of weeks earlier. I realize the dropoff in performance also coincided with family emergency. It gets tricky to evaluate what was going on. I remember during the end of the season tht there were a couple of games in which he felt he made adjustments and it is possible that when a starter relies so heavily on two pitches that the league starts to figure him out, particularly in the NL West.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 23, 2021 23:23:52 GMT -5
You're making sense to me, Reeder. I'm backing off Jon Gray as well. He fell apart in August and September. I haven't been as high on Matz as Cobb, but I've had interest. I'll have to look and see who else might be intriguing, but I love your idea of Alex and have a lesser interest in Steven. As of this moment, I'm rooting for Robbie Ray and Cobb. Ray would cost a compensation pick, but he's expected to be priced similarly to Gausman, and I like his chances quite a bit more. Ray has always had the stuff, but he was walking a batter every two innings. Last season he knocked off nearly two walks per nine and became something of a control pitcher at just under two and a half walks per nine. Robbie's 2.84 ERA was decently supported by his 3.60 xERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.36 xFIP and 3.21 SIERRA. He turned 30 just last month. I'm highly intrigued by Carlos Rodon, but I'm worried that he didn't received a QO from the White Sox. I personally would be quite interested in him at 1/$18.4, but since the White Sox weren't, the concerns with his arm must be real. He'll turn 29 before next season. If he's healthy, he should be an ace. The final pitch he threw last season was 6 mph slower than his average, and he got whacked in a brief appearance in the postseason, so I guess those arm issues are real. Oh, well. I'm not doing much better than your recommendation of Cobb and Matz, Reeder, although I would be tempted to go the extra money for Ray over Matz. I guess, as almost always, it depends on the differential. Zaidi said today that they are not looking for five guys to fill out a rotation. They are looking to fill 162 starts. Now with the rotation of Webb, Desclafani, Wood, there might be as many as three more. I'm not sure what Zaidi was talking about. He could be looking for spot starter reliever hybrid guy. We might see Opener 2.0 with the use of six or seven starters with some starts started by one pitcher and the the lineup flipped by the second starter.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 7:45:32 GMT -5
Matz signed with St Louis for 4y/$44m, so Matz is off the table. The deal breaker for the Giants was probably the fourth year.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 9:22:32 GMT -5
Gausman salary estimates: Kevin Gausman MLBTR: Six years, $138 million
FanGraphs: Four years, $76 million
ESPN: Five years, $105 million
Crowley: Four years, $84 million
Some people rank Gausman top 5 available free agent pitcher and some have ranked him as low as 14th. Giving more weight to his second half performance I'd say he's around 10th to 12th. Also, there are charts available on the internet for spin rates. Gausman did not have as big of a drop as guys like Bauer, Buehler, or Cole but he did have a big spike in May and then a small dropoff. If he was using anything, he probably reserved it for key games against San Diego, LA, and Cincinnati. On reddit, there was one comment about Gausman using some white substance that was on his cap. To say he was using it or not is inconclusive but if I had to guess, I think he did, but not as frequently as the others. I think the contract at the low end of 4y/$76mm might even be generous in the number of years. Hopefully Zaidi and crew are doing their due diligence. The number of other suitors might drive up the price. Good for him if it does but if it goes past 4 years or over $20m per year, it feels like its too high, especially if we get second-half Gausman.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 11:16:50 GMT -5
On KNBR today, they mentioned that Farhan does not like to go over 3 years on a contract so I think the Giants will offer 3y/$60m but if it comes to a fourth year, which in all likelihood it will, Gausman walks.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 12:52:08 GMT -5
Here's a question: Would you rather sign a guy like Matz for 4/$44 or say 3/$36? Matz is 30. Would it be worth another $8 million to have his age 34 season?
My guess is that Farhan would be willing to go that fourth year if it were cheap enough. $8 million might not be cheap enough, but for instance I can't imagine he would prefer 3/$39 to 4/$44. We've seen contracts (not from Mr. Zaidi) that had option years with $5 million buyouts.
Taking this discussion to Gausman, if the Giants do want him, and a fourth year becomes necessary, would you offer him 4/$75 instead of 3/$60? 4/$72?
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 24, 2021 13:27:19 GMT -5
I'm not sure why we resigned Desclafani, and I don't know why we'd want to resign Gausman. The feel I got when the season ended is we needed to retool our rotation to be more relevant down the stretch and into October. The only starting pitcher that stepped up to the challenge was Webb, the rest fizzled out.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 13:49:56 GMT -5
I don't think it's accurate to say that DeSclafani fizzled out. Yes, he had a terrible 5.68 ERA in August, but that came on the heels of 1.69 in June and 3.68 in July, and was followed by a very nice 2.25 down the stretch in September and October. Anthony was poor in his one postseason start, but he still allowed only two runs.
I don't think Alex Wood did either. He missed some time due to injury, and he had a 5.00 ERA in August, but he came back from injury in September to fashion a 1.38 mark. He then pitched 4.2 scoreless in the playoffs.
Kevin Gausman, yes. And Johnny Cueto just had a mediocre season. We knew Johnny wasn't coming back, and Kevin may not be
Whom would you have signed instead, Matt? My foursome would be Ray, Cobb, Wood and DeSclafani, and the Giants are halfway there.
You specified down the stretch and into October. Including the playoffs, DeSclafani had a 2.75 ERA and Wood was excellent at 1.02 in September and October. Are you sure of your statement?
I'll take that kind of "fizzl(ing) out" all season long.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 14:07:37 GMT -5
The two 2022 projections I have seen for DeSclafani have been 10-7 with a 3.85 ERA, and 10-11 with a 4.16 ERA. For Wood it has been 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 10-9, 3.89. Those aren't star projections, but they're solid.
Webb is projected at 10-6, 3.73 and 12-10, 3.38. Gausman's projections are 10-8, 3.54 and 12-10, 3.78.
The two guys I'm hoping for are Ray at 11-8, 3.76 and 12-10, 3.77 and Cobb at 8-7, 4.24 and 10-9, 3.95. Based solely on projections, the guys one would want would be Webb (of course), Gausman and Ray. Actually, I misread Kevin's numbers from August and September, which I had thought were poor. He was at 3.16 and 4.05, so I'm going to throw him back in my mix. I would be happy with any two of the trio of Ray, Gausman and Cobb.
And given the price the Giants got DeSclafani and (apparently) Wood at, I'm excited by both those signings. No, I don't expect them to be as good as they were in 2021, but I think they both have a nice chance of being successful over the lives of their contracts. The Giants didn't risk high amounts of money with either contract. With either Gausman or Ray, they would be risking quite a bit more.
Which four pitchers would you have signed, Matt, and how high would you have been willing to go? I think the Giants could lock up DeSclafani, Wood, Cobb and either Ray or Gausman for not a large amount over $150 million. That's a lot of money, but I don't think it's exorbitant.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 14:17:11 GMT -5
By the way, DeSclafani is just 31, so the Giants aren't committed to him beyond age 34. Wood is just 30, and according to the reports, the Giants won't be committed him beyond age 32.
You mentioned, Matt, that these guys (and Gausman) fizzled down the stretch, but especially in the case of the first two, that wasn't really the case. Why is it you don't like their re-signings (one finalized and the other said to be close)?
Peter Morosi says Gausman's market now includes four teams -- the Giants, Mariners, Angels and Blue Jays.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 16:08:59 GMT -5
Wood went on the IL because of COVID and actually has had some success against the Dodgers. Wood going on the IL hurt the Giants pretty badly because it caused them to have more bullpen games. Desclafani actually has good numbers if one subtracts out the Dodger stats.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 16:16:06 GMT -5
If one takes out the Dodger stats, he has GREAT numbers. As in 13-4, 2.37 great. If Anthony had pitched as well against the Dodgers as he did against the rest of the teams, he might have been a Cy Young candidate. And let's not forget that while he did perform poorly in the playoffs against the Dodgers, he did shut them out for six innings on September 3rd.
I personally was very happy Monday when we learned that the Giants had re-signed Anthony and were going to re-sign Alex. I'm curious to see what Matt's reasons are for not being happy about that.
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