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Post by sharksrog on Nov 29, 2021 14:12:04 GMT -5
We're seeing how highly top pitching is valued. Verlander's contract wasn't cheap, and now Scherzer is apparently signing for 3/$130. Apparently teams don't think the old guys are done!
The Mets are the team adding Scherzer, so they're getting serious.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 29, 2021 15:16:51 GMT -5
Marcus Semien had a wonderful season in 2021. Based in good part on his 45 homers, he finished 3rd in the MVP voting. But while he did hit 33 homers in 2019, some of his power was likely illusory. His .538 SLG dwarfed his expected SLG by 85 points.
Sermien got better results last season than even Brandon Crawford, and he may do so going forward, but Brandon was by far the better bargain when the Giants re-signed him for 2/$32, a contract far overshadowed by Semien's 5/$175. As Matt or Reeder already mentioned, Brandon's contract is looking even better after Semien's signing.
The Giants are almost surely not in the shortstop market, but based on their projections, which would you prefer?
Carlos Correa 10/$320
Corey Seager 10/$305
Trevor Story 6/$126
By the way, I believe I pegged Ray's salary at 4/$144, and of course that would be 4/$104. I still wouldn't go that high with the compensation, although it's tempting. Ray was projected by MLBTR at 5/$130 though, and he'll likely get the years and perhaps the AAV. The compensation leaves me out.
The Giants released Aaron Sanchez last season after he had health issues, but I wonder if he would be worth another look at the right price, preferably on a minor league pact. I'd love to gamble on Carlos Rodon if his arm comes back. If healthy, he could be as good as any free agent pitcher including the big-contract guys. If it appears he'll regain full health, I'd be willing to give him a partial red shirt year.
Anybody got any great ideas now that Gausman is gone? I think in bringing back DeSclafani and (apparently) Wood, the Giants picked the right two guys to return.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 29, 2021 15:33:28 GMT -5
The Mariners are said to be closing in on a 5/$115 deal with Robbie Ray.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 29, 2021 16:05:42 GMT -5
Semien at 7y/$175m makes Crawford a bargain and just made Correa, seager, and Story richer. I'm hearing Scherzer is being linked to the Mets at 3 to 4 years at $42mm AAV. If you put Scherzer's contract next to Verlander's, Verlander's does not look so bad in comparison but Boagie is right that it is risky for a guy who will be 39 next season coming off of TJ. The Giants are in on Robbie Ray along with Texas, Minnesota, and Detroit so we might hear something in a few days. The Jays signing Gausman probably means that the Jays are no longer going with Ray. Remember, if the Giants sign Ray, it will cost them their second highest pick and $500000 in international slot money. I was very, very bothered by Gausman's ineffectiveness in the second half, so much so that I wanted us to let him walk and sign someone else.
I didn't want Scherzer, nor Verlander for various reasons, age and injury topping my list.
However, there simply weren't many other options out there outside of Strohman and Ray.
I have great faith in Farhan and I'd like to believe...I'd LIKE to believe, there is a reason he didn't give Kevin that kind of money. And I'm hoping that reason is Robby Ray.
I think the real reason was second half Gausman. Ray flying in to Seattle for 5y/$115mm
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 29, 2021 17:59:44 GMT -5
The Rangers are said to be signing Corey Seager for 10/$325. Over the next 10 seasons, the Giants have a chance to get close to Corey Seager production from Brandon Crawford and Marco Luciano -- for a lot less money!
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 7:58:55 GMT -5
Giants are finalizing a deal with Alex Cobb but no details on the deal. I'm concerned about injury history though. I am one of those who feel that Gausman is not worth emptying the bank for and I'm thinking Cobb provides similar productivity for a lot less risk.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 8:03:11 GMT -5
They might want to watch the Pirates dfa list if they are looking for reclamation projects. Brault and Moran might provide some depth and seem like the kind of guys Zaidi targets.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 9:35:07 GMT -5
The Freddy Freeman situation is probably the next big piece. Braves, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees all said to be in on him and the obstacle is the extra year on the contract. The Dodgers are in the luxury tax situation so they would lose their second and fifth round draft picks as well as $1 million international signing bonus because of the QO attached to Freeman. However, the need might become greater as it was just revealed that Muncy tore his shoulder UCL and they may need to replace him.
Seager going to the Rangers was a bit of a surprise since he grew up as a Yankee fan and professed that he wanted to stay with the Dodgers. I think the Rangers overpaid by at least $20 million but its not my money. I get that the Rangers have been struggling and won just 60 games in 2021. Even if Seager and Semien help the Rangers improve by 20 wins, which is definitely a crazy high estimate, it makes them a 80 win team. Come 2024, they'll probably be where they are in 2021 with a bloated roster.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 30, 2021 9:45:09 GMT -5
Giants are finalizing a deal with Alex Cobb but no details on the deal. I'm concerned about injury history though. I am one of those who feel that Gausman is not worth emptying the bank for and I'm thinking it's similar productivity for a lot less risk. Alex Cobb seems like a nice fit for the number five spot in the rotation. But certainly he is not a difference maker. I still would like Marcus stroman, in lieu of Robbie ray, because we lose draft picks with Robbie ray, plus he's likely to be as expensive or more expensive than Kevin gausman was
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 10:05:52 GMT -5
Giants are finalizing a deal with Alex Cobb but no details on the deal. I'm concerned about injury history though. I am one of those who feel that Gausman is not worth emptying the bank for and I'm thinking it's similar productivity for a lot less risk. Alex Cobb seems like a nice fit for the number five spot in the rotation. But certainly he is not a difference maker. I still would like Marcus stroman, in lieu of Robbie ray, because we lose draft picks with Robbie ray, plus he's likely to be as expensive or more expensive than Kevin gausman was The draft picks are not considered to be a big deal because the Giants' 107 win season has them picking at the bottom of each round so the draft pick is equivalent to being in round 2.5. The international bonus pool money is considered the bigger hit. Even though $500000 does not seem like a lot, that's where the future Lucianos come from and the most bang for the buck. Krukow said this morning that we should not assume Farhan has a three year limit on FA contracts. In past years, it was a necessity because of all the big contracts on the books, Now, it not considered a dealbreaker. Cobb might not be a difference maker but his 2021 ERA was actually less than Gausman's second half ERA (4.42). One red flag about Cobb is that he does not go too deeply into his starts but maybe Bannister and crew can help him with that. Also, Farhan mentioned that we need to cover 162 starts, not necessarily a five man pitching staff so I would assume that they are still looking for pitching.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 30, 2021 11:22:30 GMT -5
I'm not too enamored with this "busy" offseason so far. It looks to me like Zaidi was window shopping and he realized the prices are way too high for his liking so he's decided to stick to the clearance rack again. That's actually fine by me because I see some of these contracts and I'm amazed certain teams want to overspend to this extent. And the length of some of these contracts, also ridiculous, Seagar for 10 years seems like a huge risk considering how injury prone he is.
What bothers me though is it seems like Zaidi didn't see this coming. Shouldn't he be more aware of the market before he gets the fan base excited with visions of big name free agents dancing in their heads? Not to mention he could have had some of these lower tiered guys cheaper if he had been more aggressive early on.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 12:47:47 GMT -5
I like the way you look around the league, Reeder. I nearly mentioned Brault myself yesterday, and I didn't even know yet that Moran had been DFA'd. Moran can't hit lefties, but he's a good hitter against right-handers. Which makes him right up the Giants' platoon alley. Unfortunately though, he was almost exclusively a first baseman last season, which makes him duplicative with Brandon Belt. But if the DH becomes universal, he could have platoon value, and he shouldn't cost much.
As for Brault, I'd sign him to a minor league contract if I could. IIRC he keeps the ball on the ground.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 13:32:15 GMT -5
I heard someone say recently that we get too hung up on rotation numbers. Might have been Mike Krukow.
Boly said that Alex Cobb "certainly is not a difference maker." Not just "isn't likely to be a difference maker." Not even "isn't a difference maker." But "CERTAINLY (my caps) isn't a difference maker."
The question I would ask is, how do you know that, Boly? Did you expect Kevin Gausman to be a difference maker? Logan Webb? Ryan Vogelsong? Jake Peavy? One guy you did expect to be a bit of difference maker was Madison Bumgarner when he was a free agent. How has that worked out (fortunately for the Diamondbacks, not the Giants)?
As Reeder mentioned, the question with Cobb has long been more health than talent. His career is 3.87, compared to Kevin Gausman's 4.02. I'm not saying I would rather have Cobb than Gausman, but his cost will be nearly $100 million (and probably three years) less.
We'd all like to see the Giants spend more money, but it's about value. Let's look ahead two or three years. If the Giants overspend now, we might be wishing they had more money to lock up explosive young talent like Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Mordy's buddy Jairo Pomares, Joey Bart and Kyle Harrison.
With Mr. Zaidi, the Giants have a shot at building a true dynasty as the Warriors may be doing. The biggest difference between the 18-2 Warriors of this year and their team of last year that just missed the playoffs? Andre Igoudala, Otto(Matic) Porter and Nemanja Bjelica, each of whom was signed for the veteran minimum. Remember how I believe that the Giants need to start a new dynasty, that their performance between 2014 and last season was both too long and too poor for us to continue what happens now a continuation of their earlier "dynasty."? Whereas given COVID and the loss of Stephen Curry for virtually the entire 2020 season (such as it was), the Warriors' dominance over the 2015 through 2019 seasons probably allows us to consider what they do from here a continuation of that same dynasty, if what they do from here is enough.
And as amazing as the Giants' franchise record 107 win season was in 2021, has the Warriors' fabulous 18-2 start WITHOUT future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson and last year's #2 overall draft pick James Wiseman, been much less surprising? Well, it probably has been. After watching the Warriors' first pre-season game a couple of months ago one could see this season had great promise. But still: an 18-2 start WITHOUT Thompson or Wiseman? With basically the addition of three league-minimum players? I didn't see THIS coming without Thompson or Wiseman.
So let's hope that the Giants do indeed finalize their deals with the two Alex's. Throw in the already-signed DeSclafani, and the trio put up a .689 winning percentage with a 3.51 ERA. That compares pretty nicely with last year's Giants' starters who posted a .637 winning percentage with a 3.44 ERA. What makes the former numbers more exciting is that they don't include new ace Logan Webb, whereas as the Giants' starters' overall numbers do.
How about a .689 winning percentage PLUS Logan Webb? Now the questions become:
. Can the trio repeat or even exceed their 2021 numbers?
. Is Logan for real?
. Whom can the Giants get for their final starter? Or do they already have him (questionable)?
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 13:39:53 GMT -5
Matt, what makes you think Mr. Zaidi underestimated the market? Here is what he said:
“I would be surprised if we didn’t wind up doing at least one multi-year deal for a starting pitcher,” Zaidi added. “Certainly all of our guys who are free agents are going to be looking for multi-year deals based on the seasons they had. We have interest in bringing all of those guys back.”
He added: “We’re deep on the position-player side. We have a number of guys who are platoon guys, every-day guys, we have a lot of at-bats that are accounted for. And we’ve got guys like Thairo Estrada (and) Steven Duggar that we’d like to see get better opportunities. You’ve got a layer of prospects that are even closer to being big-league ready, guys like (Heliot) Ramos and Joey Bart. So we at least have some options on the position-player side."
And: “We have a number of free agents in the rotation and we have interest in retaining all of those guys, but this is probably the segment of the free agent market that’s hardest to predict or pin down, because it’s a need that every team has and every team tries to address pretty aggressively.”
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 13:48:51 GMT -5
Perhaps there were other things he said as well, and I expected him to at least LOOK at the more expensive free agents, but has he lost out on any true values?
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 15:25:21 GMT -5
Stroman appears to be the best remaining starting pitcher. Shall we evaluate him?
Strengths:
. Last season Stroman accomplished a rare feat in today's game: He took the mound every fifth day, not missing a single start.
. He's been a consistent innings eater, pitching over 900 innings his past five seasons. (He sat out the COVID season of 2020, which is now a positive in that it saved wear and tear on his arm.)
. He keeps the ball on the ground. 57% of the balls hit against him have been ground balls.
. He had a career-high 11.6% swinging strike percentage last season, as he began using his change up about three times as often as before and more or less ditched his curve and replaced it with his slider.
. His fastball was more effective than since 2017.
. He improved his control, walking only 2.2 batters per nine innings.
Sounds pretty darn good so far.
Negatives:
. He is still a below-average strikeout pitcher, meaning in seasons where his ground balls find holes, he may be vulnerable.
. He appears to have been a lucky pitcher last season. He posted an exciting 3.02 ERA, but based on how the ball was hit, Statcast says his ERA should have been 4.33. It said his ERA in 2018 should have been the same 4.33. That season his actual ERA was 5.54, although it appeared to be a very unlucky season (only a 60.5% strand rate compared to his career mark of 72.4%) and one in which due to injury he barely exceeded 100 innings
In summary:
I have been downplaying Stroman because despite the changes he made in his pitch repertoire and the resulting improvement in his ERA, batters hit the ball fairly hard against him last season. But he has been a consistent innings eater and a ground ball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park. His signing won't require compensation. What his signing will require is the Giants' biggest pitching contract aside from Barry Zito and Johnny Cueto, two contracts with dubious or injury-riddled success.
Mr. Zaidi has said he's building not just a rotation, but a pitching staff that can start 162 games. That implies MORE than five starters, but he might also place a premium on an innings-eater like Stroman.
Fan Graphs has valued Marcus at $58 million over his past two seasons. I'm going to change my position and go with Boly on Stroman. The potential reward doesn't appear to be quite as high as I would like, but given the ongoing injury concerns of DeSclafani, Wood, Cobb and possibly even Webb, I like the foundation provided by Stroman. I would be willing to go a Gausman- or Ray-like contract and hope I didn't wind up regretting it.
I'm going with Boly on this one. The Giants have the money to spend, and Stroman looks like a pitcher who could be tradeable down the line if the Giants' young pitchers come through more strongly than expected. Marcus is still just 30. He made his first major league appearance right after his 23rd birthday. He saved innings on his arm by sitting out the 2020 season.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 16:21:08 GMT -5
I'm not too enamored with this "busy" offseason so far. It looks to me like Zaidi was window shopping and he realized the prices are way too high for his liking so he's decided to stick to the clearance rack again. That's actually fine by me because I see some of these contracts and I'm amazed certain teams want to overspend to this extent. And the length of some of these contracts, also ridiculous, Seagar for 10 years seems like a huge risk considering how injury prone he is. What bothers me though is it seems like Zaidi didn't see this coming. Shouldn't he be more aware of the market before he gets the fan base excited with visions of big name free agents dancing in their heads? Not to mention he could have had some of these lower tiered guys cheaper if he had been more aggressive early on. I was under the impression that a lot of the free agent money would be spent on retaining or own players such as Posey (retired), Belt, Crawford, and the starting pitchers. I did not expect much of an improvement via the free agent route because the Giants' own free agents were among the best free agents on the market. In essence, going into the free agent market would be like paying more just to stay even.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 16:31:29 GMT -5
I think you nailed it, Reeder. If they re-sign Wood and sign Cobb to go along with their previous re-signing of DeSclafani, the Giants will have replaced their three starters behind Logan Webb (although no one is likely to feel that they FULLY replaced Kevin Gausman with Cobb). They will have retained both Brandon's. They lost Buster, but they already had his replacement in hand in Joey Bart. Remember, Joey (#2 overall) was drafted HIGHER than Buster (#5 overall).
Matt acted like Mr. Zaidi got caught by surprise by the development of the free agent market, but it has been talked about for at least a couple of weeks that with the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring after today, many free agents might be looking to sign in advance of tomorrow. If we've been reading about it for two weeks or more, is it likely that Mr. Zaidi got surprised?
I would challenge Matt to tell us which key free agent values the Giants have missed out on. The Giants are coming off the strongest regular season in their history. While I don't think they were quite as good as they looked, what is wrong with prioritizing keeping their talent and their chemistry together?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 30, 2021 16:38:59 GMT -5
I'm not too enamored with this "busy" offseason so far. It looks to me like Zaidi was window shopping and he realized the prices are way too high for his liking so he's decided to stick to the clearance rack again. That's actually fine by me because I see some of these contracts and I'm amazed certain teams want to overspend to this extent. And the length of some of these contracts, also ridiculous, Seagar for 10 years seems like a huge risk considering how injury prone he is. What bothers me though is it seems like Zaidi didn't see this coming. Shouldn't he be more aware of the market before he gets the fan base excited with visions of big name free agents dancing in their heads? Not to mention he could have had some of these lower tiered guys cheaper if he had been more aggressive early on. I'm kind of okay with them not buying another Melancon, Samardzija, or Cueto. Those kinds of deals would cripple the team in a couple of years when the younger players in the organization such as Luciano become more expensive. Also, when they spend like crazy, they have to do a little bit of diligence instead of finding out later that Melancon doesn't like to exercise with the team. I was one of those guys who wanted Cueto and Melancon back then but we learned the hard way that these big, long contracts are really stupid deals at the end or even a few as a couple of years in. I felt the Giants were really burned by Melancon's lackadaisical atittude toward conditioning and they should have been a little more ware of that. From now on, as far as I'm concerned, the player has to be a generational talent to merit one of those long contracts.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 17:13:54 GMT -5
I liked the Cueto signing. When the Giants signed him, one could have made a good argument that aside from Clayton Kershaw, over the previous five or six seasons he had been the best starter in baseball. He was an innings-eater with a very low ERA.
Johnny was excellent in his first season with the Giants. Fan Graphs pegged his value at $39 million, which was nearly double the Average Annual Value of his contract at $22 million. But then the injury bug bit, and Johnny was worth less over the final five seasons of his contract than he had been worth in year one alone.
The Samardzija signing I wasn't down with. But when we compare his Giants Fan Graphs value ($55 million over five seasons) with his contract ($90 million), he was a better value than Johnny's $66 million over six seasons compared to $132 million of cost. I still like the Cueto signing much more, but based on very poor health luck, it turned out worse.
I'm now hoping the Giants sign Marcus Stroman. As long as he can stay reasonably healthy for five seasons (my presumed length of contract), he likely won't be a huge bust and might provide positive value. Remember, he's been valued at $59 million his past two seasons. Of course, Cueto had been valued at $139 million his previous six seasons. That said, I still think Johnny would have been a good signing if he could simply have stayed healthy. That, of course, is a good part of the risk with a long-term signing of a player in his 30's. (Johnny was still 29 when he signed with the Giants.)
I think that entering free agency, Wood and Cobb were my two favorite targets. DeSclafani wasn't horribly far behind. I can live with those guys. I do fear taking the big risk with what it would cost to sign Stroman. But I decided today I would risk it.
I don't believe I favored signing Melancon, since closers rarely earn their money after big contracts. I was big on the trade for Will Smith, although I thought the Giants gave up too much (which it turned out they definitely didn't). I still think Bruce Bochy should have started the ninth inning of Game 4 with the Cubs with Will. I think that gave them their best chance to win.
I liked the signing of Jake McGee because it had strong potential without costing a lot of money. Right now I like Rogers more than most do, and it's not because of the name. I expect most Giants relievers to fall back a bit next season, which is why I was glad they didn't non-tender Brebbia, who is cheap and should improve significantly next season. Hopefully Doval will be both effective and inexpensive for quite a while.
If the Giants re-sign Wood and sign Cobb, they'll have the same top four starters except that Cobb will replace Gausman. If they sign Stroman, I think their rotation could be even stronger than it was last season, when it was pretty darn good.
The Rockies are now said to be interested in Kris Bryant. That might be the best possible landing spot for him.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 17:23:27 GMT -5
Here is something to get excited about if the Giants sign Alex Cobb: The last I read, Fielding Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) does a better job of predicting a pitcher's future ERA than his actual ERA does. Cobb's FIP last season was an impressive 2.92. His 3.76 ERA was also well backed up by his 3.92 xERA, his 3.38 xFIP and his 3.83 SIERRA.
If Cobb stays healthy, we'll likely be quite pleased with his signing. And the risk should be in the very low eight figures.
What's not to like? Well, health risk. But doesn't the risk/reward ratio look really good? Same thing with Wood. And while DeSclafani was expensive, the risk/reward ratio with him looks very good as well.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 17:30:52 GMT -5
I would have liked to see the Giants sign Yan Gomes, but their future should be Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey. I think Gomes would have fit in nicely with Bart for two years, when Bailey should be ready to take up his position in the two-catcher tandem that many teams are now using. I would love to see the Giants teach both their young catchers to play first base and possibly third as well.
Regarding whether Brandon Belt extends with the Giants, I think it depends on how much he wants to stay. If he has another good season in 2022, he would be free of compensation as a free agent next winter and might be able to capture a big two- or three-year pact. It's amazing that Brandon's weighted Runs Created Plus the past two seasons ranks third in the entire major leagues.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 21:26:13 GMT -5
The Giants have non-tendered three players, opening up three 40-man roster spots. One would assume those are for the two Alex's and one other free agent.
I heard someone from the Phillies -- not sure who, or even if he is a player, coach or announcer -- who liked Freddie Freeman to fill the Buster Posey leadership void for the Giants. Regarding pitchers, we've discussed Marcus Stroman, but is anyone interested in Clayton Kershaw or Carlos Rodon?
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 21:49:54 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 30, 2021 21:50:17 GMT -5
And, of course, he almost certainly isn't done yet.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 1, 2021 9:35:41 GMT -5
I'm not too enamored with this "busy" offseason so far. It looks to me like Zaidi was window shopping and he realized the prices are way too high for his liking so he's decided to stick to the clearance rack again. That's actually fine by me because I see some of these contracts and I'm amazed certain teams want to overspend to this extent. And the length of some of these contracts, also ridiculous, Seagar for 10 years seems like a huge risk considering how injury prone he is. What bothers me though is it seems like Zaidi didn't see this coming. Shouldn't he be more aware of the market before he gets the fan base excited with visions of big name free agents dancing in their heads? Not to mention he could have had some of these lower tiered guys cheaper if he had been more aggressive early on. I'm kind of okay with them not buying another Melancon, Samardzdija, or Cueto. Those kinds of deals would cripple the team in a couple of years when the younger players in the organization such as Luciano become more expensive. Also, when they spend like crazy, they have to do a little bit of diligence instead of finding out later that Melancon doesn't like to exercise with the team. I was one of those guys who wanted Cueto and Melancon back then but we learned the hard way that these big, long contracts are really stupid deals at the end or even a few as a couple of years in. From now on, as far as I'm concerned, the player has to be a generational talent to merit one of those long contracts. Melancon, in particular, really made me angry. A top dollar free agent should act more like one of the leaders on the team, not like a mercenary. Glad he is gone.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 1, 2021 11:25:49 GMT -5
I'm not too enamored with this "busy" offseason so far. It looks to me like Zaidi was window shopping and he realized the prices are way too high for his liking so he's decided to stick to the clearance rack again. That's actually fine by me because I see some of these contracts and I'm amazed certain teams want to overspend to this extent. And the length of some of these contracts, also ridiculous, Seagar for 10 years seems like a huge risk considering how injury prone he is. What bothers me though is it seems like Zaidi didn't see this coming. Shouldn't he be more aware of the market before he gets the fan base excited with visions of big name free agents dancing in their heads? Not to mention he could have had some of these lower tiered guys cheaper if he had been more aggressive early on. Kuiper was talking about this on KNBR this morning. He said that the smaller teams like the Rangers have already shot their wad on the big name players. The Giants are lying relatively low because they want to know what the new CBA will require. (Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox traditionally are big spenders and are also lying low) Kuiper did say that since the goal is not to get 5 starters but to fill 162 starts, we might see them try to get as many as 8 to 9 starters. Also, since the Giants were a team of middling guys and one without a $30 million player, instead of paying Gausman, they would prefer to get two or three guys with the same money. The expectation is that Alex Wood and Alex Cobb don't make all their starts because of their injury history and the only guy they think being physically capable of being the horse is Webb. Maybe with the way they talk about starts, they will start to get away from bullpen games where Leone opens but if they actually opt for getting 8 starters on the team, we might see openers with a lefty-righty flip a lot more. I'm thinking that to fill a five day rotation, they may opt to use three traditional starters and two days of opener. The top players are still going to get the big contracts but we need to see how the new CBA affects the middle. There might be more middling players available earlier in their careers after the CBA goes into effect and they probably will implement the DH. The big gun teams are quiet now because they want to swoop in after the new CBA goes into effect and they have a bigger pool to choose from. The teams that signed all those marquee FAs will have less resource to do so.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2021 15:38:00 GMT -5
Very nice analysis, Reeder. Meanwhile, Matt hasn't told us which great values the Giants have missed out on. I think he misinterpreted what Mr. Zaidi said, whereas your take appears to be right on the mark.
I appreciate, Reeder, that you provide our board with evidence, analysis and logic. I applaud your approach.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 1, 2021 16:15:27 GMT -5
Giants are finalizing a deal with Alex Cobb but no details on the deal. I'm concerned about injury history though. I am one of those who feel that Gausman is not worth emptying the bank for and I'm thinking it's similar productivity for a lot less risk. Alex Cobb seems like a nice fit for the number five spot in the rotation. But certainly he is not a difference maker. I still would like Marcus stroman, in lieu of Robbie ray, because we lose draft picks with Robbie ray, plus he's likely to be as expensive or more expensive than Kevin gausman was Krukow said last week that after the first series, you do not necessarily attach a number to a starter. Whomever is pitching first that day is considered the starter and then go from there. Also, they might alternate lefty-righty to give a different look.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 1, 2021 16:24:43 GMT -5
Wood just signed for 2y/$25mm (so he squeezed out about $5mm more), Cobb is at 2y/$20mm (I think). The concern with Cobb is that he's been injured 10 times in 10 years but Ken Rosenthal noted that each injury was to a different body part each time, so it might be good or bad. Rosenthal also noted that there is about $60 million left for a starting pitcher and an outfielder also mentioning that while they may not do it, they have the resources to do so.
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