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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 15, 2019 16:51:02 GMT -5
The season is less than 2 weeks away, and I wish I felt the same excitement and enthusiasm I've felt since 2010.
Only I don't.
Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to seeing our guys play, but after that?
Seems to me that we're an empty hat looking for a head.
If we had blown the thing up, and I had a bunch of kids to watch every night, I would look forward to watching them grow.
Only we didn't.
If we actually had a chance to compete, I would look forward to that.
Only we don't.
What we're left with is watching a team treading water.
Not swimming and making progress, treading water.
That's about as much fun as watching bread rise.
Sigh...
This is not how I wanted the off season to go..
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 15, 2019 18:41:36 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to the season in much the same way I've looked forward to it for over six decades. My expectations aren't high, but my excitement is still invigorating.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 15, 2019 23:29:23 GMT -5
As much as I hate to agree with stats geeks, I always find something to enjoy during the season. I look at it this way...if the team stinks it up, maybe we'll be dumping some of those infielders
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 6:24:32 GMT -5
One thing the off-season would seem to portend is that it is getting tougher and tougher to divest oneself of his bad contracts. The middle class is no longer so overpaid. Younger players, and shorter and less expensive contracts are the new trend.
Let's take a look at third base for example. Why would someone want to trade for Evan Longoria when they could instead sign the younger Mike Moustakas for a single season at $10 million? Moustakas' OPS the past four seasons have been .818, .801, .835 and .774. Evan's have been .764, .830, .737 and .694.
Longoria has the better glove, but Moustakas is considered good enough that the Brewers believe he can handle second base this season.
Why would a team pay Evan a net $63 million over the next four seasons when it could instead pay Moustakas just $10 million and be committed for just one year? Let alone give up something in trade for Longoria instead of simply signing Moustakas.
Fortunately, Brandon Belt is pretty much worth his remaining 3/$48. Not only does he have a good bat, but he has an outstanding glove. The problem with Brandon is that he carries perhaps more concussion risk than any other player in baseball.
Brandon Crawford too might be worth his remaining 3/$46. Certainly he was worth it in 2015 and 2016. Unfortunately he hasn't been as good the past two seasons. And he has a full no-trade contract, so the Giants are completely at his mercy even if they can convince a team to trade for him. And sadly, because shortstops have become so much younger and better the past three seasons, Brandon is now little more than an average shortstop.
Joe Panik can likely be traded. He is very likely to bounce back from a down season; he's not expensive; he's controllable for two seasons but his team is on the hook for only one if necessary; and he's still on the good side of 30.
But really the only one of those guys who needs to be traded is the one who would be the toughest -- Longoria. It's the outfield that is the big problem.
On the infield too, there is the question of who will take over? In a perfect world Marco Luciano will stay agile enough to remain at shortstop and take over for Crawford when Brandon's contract expires at the end of 2021. But who will be ready to take over at any of the other three infield spots?
Would it really make sense to trade away three good infielders in Belt, Panik and Crawford and have the infield become as bad as the outfield?
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 6:26:08 GMT -5
One thing to remember too is that if the team stinks it up, it may be in part because the infielders aren't bouncing back, which would then make them even harder to trade.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 6:35:27 GMT -5
Do you really know how to evaluate players, Randy? Not that WAR is a be-all, end-all, but it's not a bad rule of thumb. And over the past three seasons, Belt and Crawford have been worth 10 wins each; Longoria 9; and Panik 3. Joe needs to get better, but he lost 10 pounds over the winter, and he's hitting .462 this spring while showing greater range defensively.
Not that I am beholden to any of the Giants' infielders, but I believe you're barking up the wrong tree. Especially in the case of Belt and Panik, the two players you simply want gone. Let's look and see, and I believe when this season is over, the Giants will have gotten more than their $20 million worth from the duo.
Now, if the Giants could get rid of Longoria, do it, do it, do it. One positive is that with the exception of Crawford, the Giants' starting infield is having a fine spring.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 6:37:07 GMT -5
We're badly undervaluing Belt and Samardzija here. The only thing truly wrong with those guys is that they have battled huge health issues. When healthy, they've been better than most of their teammates.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 6:45:39 GMT -5
I don't see how we can overvalue players like Bumgarner and Hanson and undervalue guys like Belt and Samardzija.
Samardzija looks healthy this spring and is pitching like it. Bumgarner may be healthy, but he's not pitching well. Belt is having a fine spring, while Hanson is, well, being Alen Hanson. Why is it we berate Belt with his .356 career OBP, yet praise Hanson and his .269 career on base percentage? Actually, with regard to Hanson, I think it is just Randy who is off base. And I think Randy has a much better appreciation for Samardzija.
I'm not yet bold enough to predict it, but it wouldn't be shocking if Jeff has a better 2019 than Madison. While most here didn't seem to recognize it, Jeff's 2017 season was filled with hope. He does need to learn to command his hard stuff better though. When he doesn't get it where he needs it, it's too easy to hit out of the park.
Use that curve ball more to keep batters off balance.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 7:30:16 GMT -5
Regarding Bumgarner, it's only Spring Training, but 20 hits in 12 innings is quite concerning. On the other hand, he's walked only one, which given his career high walk rate last season is encouraging. But 20 hits in 12 innings? Last spring he yielded fewer (18) in 21 frames. In 2017 he yielded just 17 hits in 25 innings. Maybe it's encouraging that in 2016 he was even worse, giving up 21 hits in 11 innings. 21 hits in 18 innings the year before.
Let's just say that this spring Madison hasn't given teams a lot of reason to trade for him.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 7:31:31 GMT -5
As an adult, I don't think I've ever been more excited than in the spring of 2008.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 16, 2019 9:42:21 GMT -5
I stand by my comment. I wish I was more excited.
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Mar 16, 2019 11:03:16 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2019 11:03:16 GMT -5
2009 was the one that stuck out to me. We were starting to fill in a solid pitching staff around Lincecum and Cain. Pablo made noise at the end of '08. We had Posey and Bumgarner waiting in the wings...things were looking pretty good. I couldn't have predicted they'd win the World Series the next season, but I had a strong feeling it was coming in the near future.
I still remember watching Bumgarner strikeout Manny Ramirez on three pitches. It wasn't as dominate as it sounds, but it still excited the crowd. The first pitch was pulled foul, it would have been a homerun if it stayed fair. The next pitch was hit about the same distance foul down the right field line. The 3rd pitch Manny didn't even flinch at, but the umpire did. Manny tipped his helmet to Bumgarner as if to say "you got me there, kid."
After the game I bought a Giants spring training '09 tank top. That became my lucky shirt. I wore it during every game until they won the World Series. Then in 2012 after the Reds were up 2-0 I retrieved it from my closet and wore it for the remainder of the post-season. I wore it again in 2014. In 2016 I wore it too, but even that magical shirt couldn't stop fate and the Giants imploding-happy bullpen. I still have it today. One shoulder strap is barely hanging on, the bottom seam is gone, so theres a piece hanging down around my legs, theres holes scattered about, but when the Giants need a big win it comes out. It's proven to not be fool proof, but I still can't bring myself to throw it out. We've been through too much together.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 16, 2019 16:13:21 GMT -5
1993 was when I was the most excited. After the extreme low of thinking the team was moving to Tampa, I was thrilled that they got saved and then that Bonds was signed.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 16, 2019 16:16:59 GMT -5
Boagie--I want to see that shirt on you when we finally go see a game together. I'll wear my ST 2017 shirt and cap.
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Mar 16, 2019 17:29:08 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2019 17:29:08 GMT -5
As much as I love that shirt, I would never wear it in public. It resembles the cloth wrapping on a mummy that's been deteriorating over the past three thousand years.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 16, 2019 17:46:28 GMT -5
ive had shirts like that...maybe just bring it in your pack just in case there is still magic in it. The Giants will need as much good mojo as they can get this year.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 16, 2019 20:25:49 GMT -5
1993 was an exciting season. The signing of Barry Bonds the previous winter was the most exciting signing I can remember, although I also felt when the Giants signed Reggie Sanders that they were going to win it all. Given the uncertainty of the postseason (which I wasn't paying as much attention to back then), I should have been more conservative, but they certainly came close.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 17, 2019 11:37:26 GMT -5
In The McCovey Chronicles, Brady Klopfer shows that he's a wise and true Giants and baseball fan when he writes:
"In all likelihood they won’t be (in the hunt at the trade deadline) - and that’s exciting, too! Because if the team can’t field an exciting product on the field, they’ll almost surely field an exciting one off of it.
At the helm of the Dodgers a year ago, Zaidi traded for Manny Machado. And Brian Dozier. And John Axford. And . . . a lot of other players.
The Giants won’t be in the same July position as the Dodgers, but the philosophy doesn’t change just because the loss column does. Zaidi will be aggressive in his pursuit of a greener future, and the way he utilizes the team’s trade assets will be fascinating to watch unfold.
This team will look a lot different in a year, and we get to see that transformation live."
Now THERE'S a wise and true fan!
Incidentally, 1986 was an excting season. Sure, just the season before the Giants had lost 100 games for the only time in their history, New York or San Francisco. But the savvy fan could see that they didn't really need all that much to become a good team.
As much as anything, they needed a solid utility infielder to replace Luis Quinones. They signed Chris Speier, who had been told that they didn't need much, and that they needed a utility infielder about as much as anything. In 1987 they made the playoffs for the first time in 16 years and with a little better bullpen usage might well have made it to the World Series.
And those 16 years in between were all exciting too, although not too many wins accompanied the excitement.
I am excited now because I believe November 6, 2018 will go down as an important day in Giants history. Ah, heck, I'd be excited anyway.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 17, 2019 13:11:18 GMT -5
I read that article, and others, and frankly, I'm not impressed.
He is stating the obvious.
I'm not a Zaidi fan, and won't be until I see some results.
I haven't seen anything that puts me in his corner yet.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 17, 2019 19:17:38 GMT -5
Well, aside from the fact that Farhan is so highly regarded in the industry, I haven't seen too much either. Certainly no high-profile moves this off-season. That said, the moves he has made seem intelligent and well-designed. And he did go a long way in his attempt to sign Bryce Harper. I really don't think Bryce was going to sign here though, barring an outlandish offer.
The California taxes were an issue, as well as the Giants' not being a good organization right now, but I think in the overall picture Oracle Park was an even bigger one. Tough for a power hitter to build his legacy at Oracle. I don't see a problem for a pure hitter, but for a power hitter, Oracle is a career-limiter -- especially a left-handed power hitter. In addition, it turns out Bryce's defense isn't very good, and Oracle was going to test that too. It's very surprising for a 26-year-old, but Bryce has actually become an early designated hitter. Maybe he would be OK at first base, although there's no opening for him there with the Phillies, who otherwise are a fine landing spot for him.
So, no, Farhan hasn't accomplished much yet -- but he's in a very tough situation, one where we wish he'd accomplished more but can't really point to where he went wrong (aside from Harper, which is a tough one given the risk and given that we don't truly know what it would have taken to get him).
I personally think you had a good idea with Avisail Garcia. I kept going back and forth on him, but I finally saw metrics that showed him to be a better fielder than I had believed, and that put me over the edge. I don't know what the Giants would have had to pay, but the contract he signed ($3.5 million plus $2.5 million in incentives) seemed reasonable to me. I would have liked to see him sign Asdrubal Cabrera, who is expected to bat fifth for the Rangers this year, but while he would have made a supersub-type for the Giants, they probably couldn't promise him a starting job either.
I think Anibel Sanchez would have been a fine signing. Madison Bumgarner pitched very well today (with the only disclaimer being that it came against a very weak lineup), so hopefully he's on his way back -- but as of the moment, I would love to have Sanchez so that the Giants could trade him. I think it is at least 50/50 that Sanchez will pitch as well or better than Madison, although despite his two injuries, I would give Madison the likely innings advantage. But if they had Sanchez instead of Madison and could get a young outfielder for Madision, I think they would be stronger -- both now and in the future.
Yusei Kikuchi was my #1 hope. But he signed for a lot more than expected, and most expected him to go to the Japanese-friendly Mariners anyway, which he wound up doing.
But given Farhan's reputation, shouldn't we be happy until proven otherise -- instead of skeptical? I think you're down on Farhan because you don't fully understand the way the game is going now. You seem to be down on analytics, while the major league teams are much more firmly behind them than ever before.
The one thing I've seen that puts me in his corner is his outstanding reputation, seeing some of the ways he interacts, and seeing that the first thing he did was change up what I believe had become a stale scouting system. He seems to be getting buy-in from the players and Bruce Bochy and staff.
I feel like if one looks beneath the surface, he can find plenty to like. But then again, I'm objective, and if in doubt, I tend toward the half-full cup.
Incidentally, most seem to believe the Giants' primary outfield entering the season will be Duggar, Parra and Williamson, which at least has some potential. And the rest of the team isn't horrible.
I can't say I'm optimistic, but given how bad the situation Farhan inherited, I'm about not at all devastated. Randy wanted to trade Belt and Panik, and by George, they've been the Giants' best hitters. I'd love to trade Longoria, and he's been hitting well too. Who knows? Maybe that will become possible. Not sure who would take his place, but I'd LOVE to see that money come off the books.
The Giants are old, overpaid and not good enough, but they do have players who at least have done it before. It would take most of the players having good years, but at least there are some pieces to play with. The future looks dim, but that's where Farhan comes in.
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Mar 18, 2019 13:28:34 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 18, 2019 13:28:34 GMT -5
Just because someone is "highly regarded" in the industry doesn't make them as good as the hype. I wouldn't have considered Sabean to be highly regarded, but yet his results would indicate he was one of the best if not the best GM during his tenure.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 18, 2019 13:48:58 GMT -5
According to the media, Trump is not well liked or highly regarded, but the economy is soaring, unemployment is at record lows, poverty is way down, millions that were on food stamps are off and the quality of life for Americans just gets better and better. My money is on The Donald being re-elected against the weak field of wacko democrats who are pro-socialism, which would kill all the economic growth we got going now.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 18, 2019 14:07:37 GMT -5
Just because someone is "highly regarded" in the industry doesn't make them as good as the hype. I wouldn't have considered Sabean to be highly regarded, but yet his results would indicate he was one of the best if not the best GM during his tenure. Rog -- You are correct that just because someone is highly regarded doesn't make them good, but it's a strong indicator. It's tough to fool those who do the same job you do, so if they're impressed, you're likely doing some things right. As for Brian Sabean, there was a huge divergence of opinion on him. Clearly he got results, which gave him some credibility, but he also made a lot of mistakes in his tenure, so he had not only many detractors, but STRONG detractors. Overall though, when the Giants were doing well, he was relatively highly regarded. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5153/#ixzz5iYH2iedl
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 18, 2019 14:18:03 GMT -5
I found this to be quite insightful:
For the SF Giants “Rebuild” Doesn’t Begin to Describe What’s Happening 62 SHARES SHARE TWEET EMAIL By: Richard Dyer | March 15, 2019
The San Francisco Giants are definitely not rebuilding. Because a “rebuild” suggests that there was something worthwhile there in the first place. You know, to rebuild.
No, this is more of a spec project, starting from scratch in an empty lot by digging a deep hole in which to pour a strong foundation.
Rather than dancing around words like “rebuild” and “semi-rebuild” let’s describe what’s actually going on: this is a bottom-up, honest-to-god “build”.
Perhaps because this process can be lengthy and unpopular, throughout his early tenure Giants President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi is not getting much love and respect from the Giants’ anxious and semi-attentive fanbase.
Much of what we hear in the social poopstorm is that Zaidi has merely picked up a series of less-than-talented players dumped by other organizations. Or that he really hasn’t really done much of anything over the winter and early spring.
Maybe if Zaidi drove a scooter to work each morning or had a catchy nickname, Giant fans would be more enthusiastic. Hey, what about “Sonic the Hedgeteacher”?
Ops czar Zaidi isn’t publicly sharing much of his global strategy to bring the Giants back to relevancy. Certainly not with the local Bay Area baseball media.
The old timey anti-analytic baseball writers in the San Francisco Chronicle are waging an embarrassing guerilla war against Zaidi.
Virtually every time he references a smart idea or insightful data that has helped other baseball teams win more baseball games, the Chron’s cranky old writers start yelling from their front porch. Something about young people on their front lawn.
A favorite target is Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a stat which one Chronicle sports writer recently vowed never to use.
And that’s appropriate, because MLB Network’s Brian Kenny has a quote in his book “Ahead of the Curve”, … about a sportswriter who disparaged WAR. He should, Kenny wrote, “either appreciate that smart people are doing work that is beyond his level of education or at least not make fun of what he cannot comprehend.”
The reason WAR is now used in every MLB front office is that it is an invaluable foundational stat that measures the economic impact and overall contributions a player brings to a team.
As in everyday life, we often determine the value of something by what it would cost to replace it.
So exactly what is going on in San Francisco? Actually plenty, so let’s break it all down.
Zaidi has hired key people to simultaneously work on a variety of key projects while at the same time reshaping the Giant’s culture.
First and foremost, Farhan Zaidi has hired a group of baseball subject matter experts to replace the existing staff. This is Zaidi’s brain trust. > J.P. Ricciardi, Senior Advisor to the President of Baseball Operations. Ricciardi spent the last 8 years as Mets GM Sandy Alderson’s Special Assistant and before that was the Toronto Blue Jays GM for 8 seasons. He previously worked for Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s for 16 years. > Michael Holmes, Director of Amateur Scouting. Has been Assistant Scouting Director for the Oakland A’s since 2009. > Zach Minasian, Director of Pro Scouting. Minasian worked for 15 years in the Brewers scouting department and most recently was Special Assistant to GM David Stearns. > Matt Daniels, pitching analyst. Daniels was the Pitching Coordinator for the legendary Driveline Baseball in Seattle.
Created depth at the high end of the Giant’s organization. Which means having layers of league average players on the 40-man roster.
Over the past decade, San Francisco’s front office has used player injuries as an excuse for poor performance. Giant fans happily bought into the fallacy that player injuries are a legitimate excuse for losing seasons.
Injuries are absolutely predictable for every MLB team, including injuries to key players. Being prepared for that, instead of lamely hoping that injuries won’t happen, is the mark of an exceptional organization.
Franchises like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox build layers of league average (or better) players into their 25-man and 40-man rosters to insure a high level of professional consistency.
The Zaidi signings of LHP Drew Pomeranz, 30, and right fielder Gerardo Parra, 31 are perfect examples of adding depth.
At first it might seem counterintuitive for the Giants to sign additional aging veterans to an aging veteran club. But in the coming season San Francisco will need hundreds of at-bats taken and scores of innings eaten– and it will look a lot better if those at-bats and innings are taken professionally.
Also, these are team-friendly, one-year deals; Parra gets a minor league contract that will pay him $1.75 million if he makes the 25-man roster, and Pomeranz is guaranteed $1.5 million (with incentives that can push that to $5 million).
Assembled a solid bullpen to move the 2019 team forward throughout the coming season. You can argue that nothing has more influence on an MLB team’s season than the bullpen. Without having a bullpen that finished 6th in the National League with a 3.79 ERA in 2018, the Giants 73-89 record could have been much worse.
We know that pitcher “saves” is a useless statistic. The fact that San Francisco led the Majors with 30 “blown saves” clearly demonstrates that saves are not remotely a measure of the effectiveness of a bullpen.
Not only do the Giants start the 2019 season with several exceptional relievers (LHPs Will Smith and Tony Watson, RHP Reyes Moronta), Zaidi has added RHP Trevor Gott from the Nationals, and LHP Travis Bergen, a Rule 5 pick-up from Toronto.
Former Cincinnati prospect RHP Jose Lopez, 25, was a nice pick-up off waivers. Lopez will add upper minor league organizational depth that San Francisco can call on during the season.
Begun to Rebuild the Giants failing farm system. There’s two ways to get that done. The long-term solution is to conduct smart, well-researched annual First Year Player Drafts each June, something that the previous front office failed to do.
The short-term solution is to trade whatever valuable player assets you have to teams in need. And try and get the best minor league prospects you can in return.
Current Giants players with value include LHP Madison Bumgarner, LHP Will Smith, and LHP Tony Watson. Precisely when these players get traded will be determined by the deal that Zaidi feels brings the highest value.
Typically, the mid-season non-waiver trade deadline prompts contending MLB teams to give up the most minor league value to fix their current Major League needs.
Acquired a number of promising hitters from various organizations who can provide depth. > CF Drew Ferguson was picked up in a Rule 5 deal from the Houston Astros. Ferguson was drafted by the Astros in 2015 and can play all three outfield positions.
> Abiatal Avelino, 24, was acquired in August 2018 in the Andrew McCutchen trade with the Yankees. He is an exceptional shortstop and second baseman who can bring flexibility to the Giants’ infield.
> Breyvic Valera, 2B. Switch-hitter Valera was picked up from the Baltimore Orioles for cash. He was in the Dodgers system last season when he was dealt to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado deal.
Since Farhan Zaidi was hired as Baseball Ops President there have been dozens of other moves– in the front office, on the coaching staff, and with players.
We have also seen Zaidi “deal up” a number of times this winter, picking up a player and then almost immediately replacing him when better alternatives became available.
And he’s not remotely finished.
Giants fans saw their previous front office plod through each season, obeying a predictable schedule and making as few moves as possible.
In the new paradigm, there is no “down time”. The engine is on 24/7 and we can expect deals, movement, and trades right up to the final game in September. And beyond.
On the field, 2019 looks to be a tough season for the San Francisco Giants. But the process of making foundational changes, and creating a forum for smart, difference-making decisions in the organization is already in full acceleration.
Because they haven't made big, visible moves, there is a feeling nothing is happening. But those who are more discerning, such as the author above, are seeing changes that will eventually matter.
I thought the biggest (and saddest) insight was that this isn't a rebuild but rather simply a build. The good news is that the Giants do have some aging players who at least have done it before. The bad news is that moving forward, there is little to work with for the future.
I liked the comment too that while it has been easy for Giants fans to blame recent failures on injuries, the good teams recognize that injuries are inevitable and build depth. We thought the Giants have had a tremendous number of injuries, and they have, but so have most of the teams that still have managed to make the playoffs. Our inability to recognize how frequent injuries are throughout baseball now, coupled with a huge over-valuing of the 2016 Giants team early in the season, caused us to reach a belief that the Giants were far better than they really were.
We failed to recognize they were faltering, getting older and were building up huge future contract liabilities. Of course the Giants themselves did to, and now they're left with a nearly unplayable lie. Fortunately, Farhan is a shot-maker. Even his fine abilities will be greatly tested.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 18, 2019 14:19:02 GMT -5
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 18, 2019 14:38:53 GMT -5
Stats geeks loving on stats geeks...what a shock
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 18, 2019 15:29:35 GMT -5
Randy, you should try to learn a little about analytics. I realize you're not very analytical in your decision-making, but your undertstanding would greatly improve if you learned more pertinent facts.
Or you could simply continue on in ignorant bliss. Except that you're not even blissful.
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Mar 19, 2019 6:47:13 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 19, 2019 6:47:13 GMT -5
The San Francisco Giants are definitely not rebuilding. Because a “rebuild” suggests that there was something worthwhile there in the first place. You know, to rebuild.
No, this is more of a spec project, starting from scratch in an empty lot by digging a deep hole in which to pour a strong foundation.
Boagie- Does this guy not realize we had the second pick in every round of the draft last season?
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Mar 19, 2019 6:57:33 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 19, 2019 6:57:33 GMT -5
The old timey anti-analytic baseball writers in the San Francisco Chronicle are waging an embarrassing guerilla war against Zaidi.
Virtually every time he references a smart idea or insightful data that has helped other baseball teams win more baseball games, the Chron’s cranky old writers start yelling from their front porch. Something about young people on their front lawn.
Boagie- Not sure who he's referring to, but it would seem to me most if not all Bay Area writers use analytics in their writing. They too mentioned rebuilding as the more favorable approach. Many have written about trading Bumgarner.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 19, 2019 12:40:33 GMT -5
The San Francisco Giants are definitely not rebuilding. Because a “rebuild” suggests that there was something worthwhile there in the first place. You know, to rebuild.
No, this is more of a spec project, starting from scratch in an empty lot by digging a deep hole in which to pour a strong foundation.
Boagie- Does this guy not realize we had the second pick in every round of the draft last season?
Rog - Of course he does. I'm not sure the Giants got much beyond Joey Bart. It will be a while before we know, of course, but 2nd-round pick Sean Hjelle weighed in only at #6 on a weak Giants prospect list. 3rd rounder Jake Wong was ranked #7, which is somewhat encouraging, but if anything, beyond Bart, the Giants may have done more with their signing of 17-year-old free agent Marco Luciano than with their #2 draft pick in each round.
If we want to see a draft where the Giants fared extremely well with their high draft pick but then blew it in the rest of the draft we need only look at the 2007 draft, where the Giants had four of the top 32 picks and six of the top 51. Madison Bumgarner was a coup, but the Giants got almost nothing with their five other picks in the top 51.
Madison has been a star, and their 21st-round pick Danny Otero has been a five-win reliever, but only 10 of the other 48 Giants draft picks that year made the majors, and that group produced only a combined MINUS five wins. Even though they had six of the top 51 picks, after Madison, the Giants got just replacement value from that draft. One can point to Madison as a big reason why the Giants won three World Championships in five years, but they can point to the rest of the draft as a big reason the Giants didn't build a true dynasty and instead missed the playoffs entirely in the two sandwiched seasons.
For perspective, let's take a look at the likely 2023 lineup for the Giants:
P -- Dereck Rodriguez
C -- Joey Bart
1B -- Aramis Garcia
2B -- Joe Panik
SS -- Ryan Howard
3B -- Marco Luciano
LF -- Heliot Ramos
CF -- Steven Duggar
RF -- Alexander Canario
That most of us barely recognize half those names shows us what a poor position the Giants are in right now moving forward. Sadly, we likely know the likely 2023 lineups of teams like the Red Sox and Astros as well or better than we know our own.
In a best-case scenario, the Giants find that many of their key players have career years in 2019 and that they are indeed competitive. Then they put together a stellar draft from their lucky (Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner) #10 draft slot and sign a couple of top international free agents. They find a way to deal their older, overpriced players.
The likely scenario is much tougher. Since the Giants' great #10 draft picks of Lincecum and Bumgarner in 2006 and 2007, the 11 #10 overall draft picks since have combined for 29 WAR. Take away Jason Castro and Mike Conforto, and the other nine have averaged one win apiece.
I'm confident in the new Giants regime. And even though they haven't made any big moves to speak of, I'm slightly more confident than before they arrived. But right now the Giants are quite high in age and future salary commitments and very low in young talent. Let's be honest: No one here has any brilliant ideas of the deals the Giants should make to transform themselves into either present or future contenders.
If we use the Astros as a model -- and they have indeed been quite successful in building through the draft and through analytics -- it took them seven years from when they got the #8 overall pick in 2010 until they won their World Championshipin 2017. In a six-year period, the Astros had the #1 overall pick THREE times, plus a #2 overall. In total, they had seven top-11 picks in six years. Still, it took them seven years.
The lie is nearly unplayable, yet according to the article, the Giants are looking to improve 24/7. Even with a great management team, they'll need some luck.
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