Post by rog on Mar 24, 2019 6:39:42 GMT -5
If we're defining a better base runner as one who is more effective (takes more bases and gets caught less doing so), I can say unequivocally that Angel Pagan was a better base runner than Buster Posey. I think Buster has better INSTINCTS than Angel had, but he simply doesn't have the speed to take full advantage of those instincts.
I mentioned that when Angel retired, he had plus 169 net bases. That's bases taken with points taken off for getting thrown out trying. I mentioned that he ranked 17th out of the 100 active players who had played at least 1000 games. Buster now has a minus 9 net bases. He is tied for 62nd among 99 active base runners who have played 1000 games or more.
Angel is simply way too far ahead of Buster in this objective ranking not to have been a far better base runner than Buster. Angel was in the 83rd percentile, while Buster was in the 38th. Angel was pretty clearly above average, whereas Buster appears to be a bit below average -- and average at the very best.
Fan Graphs credits Angel with 39 base running runs. It credits Buster with MINUS 24. Here, Buster appears to be even a bit more below average.
The two rating systems have different methodologies, but both show Angel to be clearly above average and Buster to be below average. Pagan was almost certainly a far getter base runner than Buster, even if Buster had the better instincts.
You know that because you wouldn't hesitate to lead off with Angel, yet you wouldn't want to lead off with the "base clogging" Buster, even though Buster got on base far more often than Angel.
The reason Angel was so clearly a better base runner than Buster is because he had far more speed to combine his instincts with. Even in Angel's final season of 2016, he ran an average fastest of 27.7 feet per second compared to Buster's 25.2 feet per second. Angel was 10% faster than Buster.
Angel could get to from one base to another to the degree better than Buster that based on the same running time, he would reach the next base at the same time Buster would be 9 feet short of it. It takes a heck of a lot better jump (about four-tenths of a second better) to equalize that.
When I played, I had fine base running instincts, and I hustled like crazy. But I simply didn't have the raw speed to be as good a base runner as most burners were. I was able to turn average speed into above-average base running, but I simply couldn't have come close to running with a guy like Pagan.
Buster was able to close the base running gap with Angel because he has been thrown out only 19 times trying to advance, compared to 33 for Angel (not counting failed steal attempts). But Angel was able to take more bases than Buster has been able to.
The primary reasons Angel was a better base runner than Buster are all those stolen bases (176 compared to 23) and grounding into so many fewer double plays (54 to 130). Buster has gotten more out of what he has than Angel did, but Angel simply had so much more speed that Buster could never catch up.
As an aside, last season Alen Hanson had the 45th fastest average stolen base time out of 106 players who stole often enough to qualify. Hanson is a very fast runner, but he's far from elite.
Hanson is a guy who looks even faster than he is.
I mentioned that when Angel retired, he had plus 169 net bases. That's bases taken with points taken off for getting thrown out trying. I mentioned that he ranked 17th out of the 100 active players who had played at least 1000 games. Buster now has a minus 9 net bases. He is tied for 62nd among 99 active base runners who have played 1000 games or more.
Angel is simply way too far ahead of Buster in this objective ranking not to have been a far better base runner than Buster. Angel was in the 83rd percentile, while Buster was in the 38th. Angel was pretty clearly above average, whereas Buster appears to be a bit below average -- and average at the very best.
Fan Graphs credits Angel with 39 base running runs. It credits Buster with MINUS 24. Here, Buster appears to be even a bit more below average.
The two rating systems have different methodologies, but both show Angel to be clearly above average and Buster to be below average. Pagan was almost certainly a far getter base runner than Buster, even if Buster had the better instincts.
You know that because you wouldn't hesitate to lead off with Angel, yet you wouldn't want to lead off with the "base clogging" Buster, even though Buster got on base far more often than Angel.
The reason Angel was so clearly a better base runner than Buster is because he had far more speed to combine his instincts with. Even in Angel's final season of 2016, he ran an average fastest of 27.7 feet per second compared to Buster's 25.2 feet per second. Angel was 10% faster than Buster.
Angel could get to from one base to another to the degree better than Buster that based on the same running time, he would reach the next base at the same time Buster would be 9 feet short of it. It takes a heck of a lot better jump (about four-tenths of a second better) to equalize that.
When I played, I had fine base running instincts, and I hustled like crazy. But I simply didn't have the raw speed to be as good a base runner as most burners were. I was able to turn average speed into above-average base running, but I simply couldn't have come close to running with a guy like Pagan.
Buster was able to close the base running gap with Angel because he has been thrown out only 19 times trying to advance, compared to 33 for Angel (not counting failed steal attempts). But Angel was able to take more bases than Buster has been able to.
The primary reasons Angel was a better base runner than Buster are all those stolen bases (176 compared to 23) and grounding into so many fewer double plays (54 to 130). Buster has gotten more out of what he has than Angel did, but Angel simply had so much more speed that Buster could never catch up.
As an aside, last season Alen Hanson had the 45th fastest average stolen base time out of 106 players who stole often enough to qualify. Hanson is a very fast runner, but he's far from elite.
Hanson is a guy who looks even faster than he is.