rog
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Post by rog on Feb 26, 2018 8:05:13 GMT -5
Since we all have our own ideas of what would be the best batting order, I thought it might be fun to take a poll and see what we come up with. Not surprisingly, I thought we could start with lead off.
So please pick your #1, #2 and #3 choices for lead off. I realize it's early, and we haven't yet had time to form a good opinion on some of the young players, the most important here being Steven Duggar. But let's make our picks as of now. Since things change, we should feel free to update our choices as time goes by. My thought is that if we give three points for a #1 choice, two points for #2, and one point for #3, we could build our own board list.
For lead off, my own choices would be:
#1 Steven Duggar -- Hoping he plays well this spring #2 Joe Panik -- Most likely to put his bat on the ball #3 Brandon Belt -- Best at getting on base
So as of this moment, our list is: Duggar 3 points, Panik 2 points, Belt 1 point. Each of us can change the totals. And remember, we can update as spring training goes along, meaning our list could change on a daily basis. It should change starting today. And don't be afraid to throw something out there. I might change my list tomorrow. These choices are written in pencil, not in ink.
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 26, 2018 11:57:41 GMT -5
1. Our centerfielder, whoever that may be (Jackson, Blanco, Duggar) 2. Panik. I'm still intrigued by the lineup that features Panik, Mccutchen, Posey 1-3..and the pitcher batting 8th. 3. McCutchen...only if Belt and Pence are healthy and hitting well.
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 26, 2018 15:59:43 GMT -5
A base clogger third.
Sigh.
We are never, EVERY going to agree.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 1:39:05 GMT -5
A base clogger third. Sigh. We are never, EVERY going to agree. Rog -- Well, the score so far is: Panik -- 4 Duggar -- 3 Center fielder -- 3 Belt -- 1 McCutchen -- 1 I hope Boly and others will vote too. A question for you, Boagie, and then perhaps an explanation for Boly. If you were to bat McCutchen lead off, Boagie, whom would you bat third? As for Boly, let's try to take an informed look at the lead off concept of on base percentage compared to speed. You suggest Hunter to lead off, Boly. Would you say he is likely to have an on base percentage 30 points lower than Brandon? 40 points? 50 points? Let's be very conservative and say 30 points. If we assume 700 plate appearances for a lead off man, 30 points means 21 more times on base. Brandon has scored a little over 31% of the time the past two seasons, so let's say that translates to 7 runs. But that's not the end of it. By getting on base 21 more times, Brandon gets the next hitter in the lineup 21 more plate appearances. That should put the next guy on base 7 more times, and he'll likely score two more runs on average. That's nine more runs. That's not quite the end of it yet. Since the second guy gets on base seven more times, the third guy gets to the plate seven extra times. Let's say he gets on base and scores a run. That's 10 more runs simply because Belt led off instead of Pence. The other side of it of course is that Belt likely won't score some runs that Pence would score. But would Pence score 10 more runs than Brandon? Not to mention that you denigrate Brandon for not driving in runs while giving Hunter credit for doing so. Hunter would get a lot more chances to drive in runs lower in the order rather than leading off. How many extra RBI's would he get that Brandon wouldn't? If it's not at least five, why the fuss about how few runs Brandon drives in? So now we're up to perhaps 15 extra runs by leading off with Brandon and batting Hunter lower in the order. Certainly Brandon's lack of speed isn't going to cost THAT many runs, is it? Perhaps Don can speak to Eddy Stanky's speed. I don't think it was particularly good. Despite batting lead off, he stole only 48 bases in 11 seasons. Hardly a speedster. But because he got on base 2185 times, he scored 813 runs. Not to mention all the extra at bats he gave the two or three batters behind him. Speed at the top of the lineup is wonderful. Getting on base is even better. Run through the calculations, Boly, and see how the Giants would score more runs with Hunter leading off than with Brandon there. Brandon's forte is getting on base. That speaks to batting ahead of the big boys. Hunter's forte is driving runs in. That speaks to batting behind the big boys. Where we calculate the situation mathematically or simply look at it from a baseball standpoint, Belt at the top and Pence in the middle makes more sense. Here's yet another way to look at it. On average, Hunter and Brandon have batted about the same place in the order (an average of just ahead of fifth). Brandon has scored more runs than he has driven in runs (not unusual, since not every run scored carries an RBI with it). Hunter has driven in more runs than he's scored. Brandon's ratio of runs scored to RBI's is about average. Hunter's ratio of runs scored to RBI's is clearly below average. Because Brandon gets on base more often, he is more likely to score a run. Because Hunter has a knack for driving in runs, he is more likely to drive one in. I'm open to seeing how Hunter's leading off is more likely to lead to more Giants runs than having Brandon lead off. I just can't come up with any rationale that leans in Hunter's direction. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off#ixzz58Hm1bp1X
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 1:59:48 GMT -5
Incidentally, Baseball-Reference projects Brandon for an OBP that is 40 points higher than Hunter's. The calculations we made were based on 30 points of difference. We came up with 15 more runs based on 30 points higher. At 40 points higher, we would come up with 20 more runs. Plus the extra runs Hunter would likely drive in down lower in the order.
Can anyone come up with a rationale that says Hunter would score 20+ times more than Brandon because he is faster? Keep in mind that Hunter doesn't steal bases anymore either. This season he is projected to steal just 3. Ironically, the slower Belt is projected to steal 4. Hunter has been injured a lot the past three seasons of course -- more than Brandon, who has had his own share of injuries. In that time, Hunter has stolen 7 bases, while Brandon has bagged a dozen.
No question though that Hunter is faster. On the other hand, last season he was station to station 29 times in 50 chances. Brandon was station to station 29 times in 48 chances. I previously mentioned that Brandon's problem last season was that he got thrown out too often on the bases (7 times). Hunter was thrown out only twice.
But let's suppose Brandon's being thrown out five more times than Hunter cost the Giants five runs. And let's suppose the two extra times Hunter took the extra base than Brandon did resulted in two extra runs. Even with those highly liberal estimates, that's a difference of only seven runs. That doesn't come CLOSE to the 20 extra runs Brandon's 40 point OBP advantage would lead to, or even the 15 extra runs brought about by a 30 point advantage.
The closer we look, the more Brandon's batting lead off instead of Hunter indicates the Giants would likely score considerably more runs. Even if Hunter were still a base stealer it wouldn't make enough difference. If he got on base as often as Brandon, he could make sense. But how likely is it that Hunter's OBP will be as high as Brandon's? In the six years they've played together, it's happened only once.
I doubt either one will be leading off. But if there is a good argument for Hunter to do so, I've yet to see it. Eddie Stanky must be rolling over in his grave. Likewise Eddie Yost.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 2:26:54 GMT -5
CFer
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 27, 2018 10:30:30 GMT -5
Roger, we don't agree.
We won't agree.
so I'm politely bowing out of this discussion.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 27, 2018 11:30:23 GMT -5
Rog- If you were to bat McCutchen lead off, Boagie, whom would you bat third?
Boagie- As I stated, Belt and or Pence would need to be productive for that to happen. Belt could bat 3rd, or Posey could bat third, followed by Longoria, Belt and Pence.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 12:23:03 GMT -5
If Belt is 3rd in our lineup, I'll have lost all confidence in this offense
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 27, 2018 13:42:10 GMT -5
I agree, Randy.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:07:48 GMT -5
Rog- If you were to bat McCutchen lead off, Boagie, whom would you bat third? Boagie- As I stated, Belt and or Pence would need to be productive for that to happen. Belt could bat 3rd, or Posey could bat third, followed by Longoria, Belt and Pence. Rog -- I should have paid closer attention to your parameters, Boagie. Sorry. I like Andrew at #3, since either he or Buster is likely the Giants' best hitter, but the loss of his presence in the heart of the order would be reduced if the other four guys were hitting quite well. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off#ixzz58KxT98yy
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:20:24 GMT -5
If Belt is 3rd in our lineup, I'll have lost all confidence in this offense Rog -- Brandon has a career .821 OPS hitting third. Hunter Pence has a .798 OPS hitting in that spot. If I were going to do so, I would bat Brandon third against right-handed pitchers only. Brandon has hit better when a right-hander starts and against a right-hander than any other Giant aside from McCutchen, and he's barely behind Andrew. Against southpaws, of course, he's not as good as the other guys. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58Ky4XsUc
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 14:23:38 GMT -5
821 is a great OPS for a 7th or 8th place hitter...for a 3rd place hitter it's pathetic.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:26:53 GMT -5
My issue isn't that we disagree. That can happen, and it will almost certainly happen when my thoughts are compared to Randy's.
What bothers me is that opinions seem to be ingrained. For instance, we demonstated that over the past two seasons Evan would have been likely to take the extra base nine times more often than Buster. That's once every 18 games. Not that it doesn't make any difference at all, but is that a big enough difference to bat a clearly inferior hitter ahead of a clearly superior hitter?
We don't agree, and we won't agree? The former is little problem, but the latter is more concerning. The latter comment says that it doesn't matter how much evidence is introduced to the contrary, I won't change my mind. I personally AM open to changing my mind. I need to see some solid evidence to do so though.
Nine bases is all that is standing between Buster hitting fourth instead of Evan? Seriously?
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:28:37 GMT -5
You did mention, Boly, that Evan has more power. That would be another argument.
But if you went to 100 baseball people and asked which hitter is better at this stage of his career, Buster or Evan, how many do you think would pick Evan? And don't we want on-base guys ahead of RBI guys, not vice versa?
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 27, 2018 23:07:00 GMT -5
It does ZERO good to get on base in the 3 hole, if it takes 3 or more hits to drive you in; that's Posey.
And if I went to 100 Baseball people, they'd likely say Posey is the better "Pure" hitter, but very few of those 100 people would want him 3 hole, and I doubt if many would want him hitting ahead of Longoria.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 9:32:02 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 9:38:30 GMT -5
What percentage of the time Buster scored last season do you think it took three hits to drive him in?
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 28, 2018 10:33:13 GMT -5
I have no idea, Rog, but that's beside the point.
When the "potential" exists for that to happen, it's already too much.
Now, we DON'T have a burner who can hit 1 hole.
But we have some guys who can run "some" available to hit 1-3.
CF Panik McCutchen
After that I may lean towards Longoria hitting 4th, because he's a better RBI guy with more pop, and Posey fifth, but I don't really care.
That gives me 'some' speed at the top, and, IMHO, maximizes what our lineup potential can be.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 10:43:31 GMT -5
I'm going to save you the embarrassment. Even I was surprised. Of the 62 runs Buster scored last season, only one of them took three hits. That's less than 2%.
On only 11 of them (18%) did it take even two.
The average number of hits it took to score Buster last season? Just under one. It took 58 hits for Buster to score his 62 runs.
Still think a lack of speed while batting third is critical? We're W-A-Y overestimating its importance.
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 28, 2018 11:03:39 GMT -5
I agreed with Boly that McCutchen should bat ahead of Buster, because he's faster, but Posey isn't exactly as slow as Boly makes it seem in his recent posts. Buster stole 6 bases last season, and 6 more the season before that. Buster used to be rather fast for a catcher prior to 2011. The injury played a big part in Buster's lack of speed, it seemed like he was hesitant to run hard, but I think in the last few seasons some of that strength has returned to his leg and his speed has improved since the injury. Granted, he's still probably the slowest guy in the lineup, but I don't think i'd consider him a base clogger. I wouldn't consider Belt a base clogger either, he's made bad choices on the basepath a time or two, but he's not a clogger. Any of our guys can score from second on a base hit up the middle.
That said, speed should definitely be considered when assembling this lineup. McCutchen should bat 3rd or higher, our CF should likely leadoff, and Panik should bat second. After that, I don't think Posey batting ahead of Longoria will cause Longoria to pull up with a single because Posey can't make it to third base on a double. Posey easily makes it to third, and perhaps even scores.
I think people here need to start really looking at what they're posting and consider if it's actually factual or even remotely plausible. I've seen a lot of biased posts here that are the furthest thing from reality. I have been guilty of this myself. I said Beltran was trying to infect sick kids with the flu. Obviously that wasn't his intention, he's just not smart enough to know not to go to a hospital when he has the flu. But he's not intentionally an evil or bad person. I still maintain his time with the Giants was a major dissapointment, but I can recognize him having a very good career outside of costing the Giants back to back Championships.
I think we need to really brainstorm and see if Brandon Belt is the worst player in history before we click "post." Is Buster a sloth, or is his speed slightly below average? I enjoy all opinions here, everyone has a lot to offer, but sometimes the opinions are so far from reality that a little research might make for a more meaningful conversation now and in the future. Challenge yourself to see if what you are saying can actually be supported by any facts or anyone else's opinion in the universe, if it can't than maybe we need to consider that we're being slightly biased or even the fact that we are just flat out wrong.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 28, 2018 13:28:07 GMT -5
If anyone cost us back to back championships, it wasn't Beltran with his .920 OPS...it was Scott Cousins.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 28, 2018 13:40:39 GMT -5
I never said Belt was the worst player in history. It's precisely BECAUSE of his exceptional talent that he irks me so much. His entire career for me has been one gigantic IRK after another. The oaf simply has no desire to be to reach his God given potential. He's lazy, complacent and one of the biggest sissy-mary's in history. Even Will Clark couldn't motivate the best out of him. If Belt had half the desire to succeed that Clark had, he'd be a sure fire HOFer, IMO. That is what irritates the PISS out of me. I think his presence in the clubhouse has only served to hurt our young prospects. That is why I want him gone. I don't want him showing our youngsters the WRONG way to play. I dont want to see more players like him, satisfied with mediocrity, forgetting their defensive responsibilities and begging out of a game with a booboo. I'd prefer to have players that bust their asses to get the most of their abilities.
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 28, 2018 18:06:23 GMT -5
Perhaps I should explain "base clogger," better so everyone understands where I'm coming from.
A base clogger, in GENERAL, is a guy who is NOT likely to go from 1st to 3rd on a single to CF, RCF, or RF.
That list includes Posey, Hundley, Sandoval, Ryder and Belt.
As to Posey, I never, EVER called him a "sloth."
But he's below average on the bases and in MY mind; THAT makes him a base clogger.
On OUR team, I ranked the following guys (base cloggers) from "fastest" to "slowest"
Belt, Posey, Jones, Hundley, Sandoval.
Whether you play and/or respect Strat-O-Matic or not, sinceI first saw the game cards in 1966, they have been VERY accurate in rating a player's ability to take an extra base.
Posey has been rated as 1-11, most seasons since 2010; THAT is below average.
The fastest I've ever seen rated is 1-17.
Thus, 1-12 would be average, 1-13 slightly above average and so forth.
Not since 2015 has Belt been rated at anything above 1-13, and has been a 1-11 ever since.
And to my eye, he's gotten slower.
In MY line up, if you can't be rated at least 1-14, you don't hit 3 hole unless there is absolutely no other choice.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 22:34:47 GMT -5
821 is a great OPS for a 7th or 8th place hitter...for a 3rd place hitter it's pathetic.
Rog -- Guys with an .821 OPS rarely hit 7th and almost never hit 8th.
There are 309 players (out of, what, 12,000?) who have a career OPS of .821 or higher. Keith Hernandez is the 309th, and it's intriguing that he has hit so close to Brandon (whose career OPS is .319) and had an even better glove. Brandon has hit for more power than Keith, but Keith got on base even more and had a much higher batting average.
I had forgotten how little power Keith had, but while Boly has told us he thinks a first baseman has to hit 20 homers, Keith's career high was 18. Only four times in 17 seasons did he hit 15 or more.
What Keith did do was drive in runs. He reached 100 only once, but he picked up over 1000 in his career. Keith's BA, OBP, SLG and of course OPS were much higher with runners on and in scoring position than with the bases empty. One of the biggest differences I've seen.
All in all I guess we could say that Brandon is Keith Hernandez lite. Even though it's lite, that's pretty complimentary. Keith isn't all that far off being a Hall of Famer.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 22:40:50 GMT -5
I agreed with Boly that McCutchen should bat ahead of Buster, because he's faster, but Posey isn't exactly as slow as Boly makes it seem in his recent posts. Buster stole 6 bases last season, and 6 more the season before that. Rog -- I think we all pretty much agree that Andrew is the best choice to hit 3rd. What bothers me though is that Boly wouldn't even CONSIDER Buster's batting third -- just because he's slow. And while he's not Yadier Molina, he IS quite slow. But he has good base running sense. What I'm intrigued to find out -- and I haven't looked ahead -- is if the fact that just ONCE did it take three hits to score Buster has opened up Boly's mind a bit. He acted like it ALWAYS -- or at least usually -- took three hits to score Buster. Clearly that was folly. There are so many things we used to (and often still do) take for granted in baseball that just isn't factual. We certainly wouldn't have thought that it would have taken three hits only once to score Buster, and that on average, it instead took just under one hit to do so. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58SsPvO00
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 22:42:34 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 22:44:04 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 22:53:53 GMT -5
On OUR team, I ranked the following guys (base cloggers) from "fastest" to "slowest" Belt, Posey, Jones, Hundley, Sandoval. Rog -- I think when you say "fastest" and "slowest," you're talking about base running efficiency. But in terms of raw speed, here is their order: Jones 27.4 mph Belt 26.7 mph Hundley 25.7 mph Posey 25.6 mph Sandoval 25.5 mph In terms of effectiveness, I think Ryder is easily the best. Brandon would be next. I think Buster and Nick are close, with Pablo clearly bringing up the rear. With regard to Jones, I think we're giving him very short shrift. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58SuejztQ
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 23:05:44 GMT -5
Not since 2015 has Belt been rated at anything above 1-13, and has been a 1-11 ever since. And to my eye, he's gotten slower. Rog -- Brandon's best in 2015 was 26.6 mph. In 2016 it was 26.1. Last season it was 26.7. As he ages, I would expect Brandon to slow down. But over the past two seasons he doesn't appear to have slowed down much. His best reading between 2015 and 2017 was last season. We realize, right, that Brandon has above-average speed for a first baseman? Last season he ranked #20 out of 48. Now, with regard to slow guys not even being considered for the #3 spot in the order, Adrian Gonzalez ranked worst among first basemen; Miguel Cabrera ranked 9th-worst; Joey Votto ranked 10th-worst; Anthony Rizzo ranked 13th-worst. With the exception of Gonzalez -- who was far slower -- the other guys were right around the speed of Buster. This argument against Buster's even being CONSIDERED to bat third is getting more and more ridiculous. I think, by the way, that Buster is a better base runner than Gonzalez, Cabrera and Votto, and I'm not sure about Rizzo, who IIRC had a really tough 2016 season on the bases. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58SxZnGwN
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