rog
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Post by rog on Feb 25, 2018 20:49:15 GMT -5
Longoria had 58 extra base hits, Posey had 47. Rog -- That is true. And despite that, Buster got a base through a hit at the rate of 462 per thousand at bats compared to Evan's 424 per 1000. I think you kind of made my point. Evan had 32 more total bases than Buster last season. The problem is that it took him 119 more at bats to get them. That's about a .265 "average," which is more like a batting average than a slugging percentage. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58AsuBb2s
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 25, 2018 20:49:19 GMT -5
No to mention Buster will have more protection this season and be in a more favorable position to have better numbers.
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 26, 2018 16:00:52 GMT -5
I don't agree. We all see things differently. Ya'all think more highly of Buster at the bat than I do. And that's okay. OUr opinions don't matter anyway. Bochy hasn't emailed me in quite a while asking mine... boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 27, 2018 0:34:02 GMT -5
Boly- I don't agree.
We all see things differently.
Ya'all think more highly of Buster at the bat than I do.
Boagie- I dont think Buster is a huge run producer. He's not going to hit you 40 homeruns or drive in 130 RBIs. But his efficiency at the plate is at an elite level. Look at his walk to strikeout ratio, look at his average and obp...he gives up very few outs. Pitchers have to work to get him out. Guys like that don't bat 5th.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 2:12:09 GMT -5
Boagie- I dont think Buster is a huge run producer. He's not going to hit you 40 homeruns or drive in 130 RBIs. But his efficiency at the plate is at an elite level. Look at his walk to strikeout ratio, look at his average and obp...he gives up very few outs. Pitchers have to work to get him out. Guys like that don't bat 5th. Rog -- I will agree with Boly that Buster is slightly overrated as a hitter. The reason I say slightly is that if his home park were a hitters' park, he would almost certainly hit with a fair amount more power. But you hit the nail on the head, Boagie. Buster is what's usually called a professional hitter. Look at the beauty of his swing. It's extremely level. If he were to begin uppercutting the ball slightly, his homers would increase -- but his average would almost certainly go down. I think Buster has grooved his swing so well for so long that it would be tough for him to uppercut it enough more to make a significant difference. We would like Buster to be Johnny Bench, but he's much closer to Tony Gwynn. And that's not bad. Tony's .847 OPS was made up of a .388 OBP and a .459 SLG. Buster's .850 consists of 376 OBP points and 474 points of slugging percentage. I'm not certain about this, but I'm thinking something like three catchers have higher career OPS than Buster, even though Buster plays in such a difficult hitting environment. If he hit the way he hits and played first base, I don't think he would be an elite player. But for a catcher with very good defense, he hits the heck out of the ball. On a slightly different topic, would Buster hit a lot better if he played only first base? We analyzed this a couple of years ago and at that time it appeared Buster would have hit better, but not by a huge amount. I worry about Buster's getting injured behind the plate, but if he can avoid that, the Giants are likely a better team since he has been primarily a catcher. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58I0wtUDf
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 27, 2018 10:28:53 GMT -5
Boagie- I dont think Buster is a huge run producer. He's not going to hit you 40 homeruns or drive in 130 RBIs. But his efficiency at the plate is at an elite level. Look at his walk to strikeout ratio, look at his average and obp...he gives up very few outs. Pitchers have to work to get him out. Guys like that don't bat 5th.
***boly says***
And they sure as heck shouldn't hit 3rd, either, boagie.
He's a base clogger.
Period.
Roger likes to bring up Killebrew hitting third.
But he fails to mention that those old Twins teams had a number of BANGERS, Alison, Hall, Battey just to name a few, who could all hit 20+ HRs.
With a team of bangers you can get away with a base clogger 3rd.
We don't have bangers.
We don't have a fast team.
We cannot afford the proverbial 'slow boat to China' hitting 3rd
Like I said, and continue to say, we don't, and won't, ever agree on this.
So I, for one, am politely dropping out of this discussion.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 13:24:48 GMT -5
We don't have a fast team. We cannot afford the proverbial 'slow boat to China' hitting 3rd Rog -- In reality, if the Giants had a fast batter behind Buster whom Buster slowed down on the bases, one could make a BIGGER argument for not hitting Buster ahead of him. If Buster couldn't get to third on that guy's single that would have been a double without Buster to slow him down, one could make a better argument. If Buster couldn't score on the guy's double and prevented the batter from turning it into a triple, that would be bad. But how likely is that to happen? We've seen it happen before. The first time I can remember, Ed Bailey stopped at third as Manny Mota was flying there on what for Manny would have been a sure triple. Instead it turned into an out. But how often does that happen? How often would it happen with Buster on base ahead of Evan Longoria. Let's take a look at the past two seasons. Buster took the extra base 33% of the time. Evan took it 46% of the time (which is indeed pretty good, especially for a guy with modest speed). That's a 13% difference. Buster averaged 67 opportunities per season. That's an extra nine bases Evan would have taken more than Buster took. NINE bases per season. How many runs does that translate into? Not nearly as many as the added runs by having Buster get on base ahead of the more powerful Evan far more times than Evan would have gotten on for the less powerful Buster. You're letting the cart pull the horse, Boly. Just stop and think it over carefully. Talk it over with your school's math teacher (especially if he understands baseball). Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58KjDnWNz
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 27, 2018 13:44:57 GMT -5
I don't know how many different ways to say it, Rog.
I do NOT want someone who cannot run hitting 3rd.
Period.
That's how I would do things... maybe not you, nor others.
To ME, it's not even a discussable option.
I hit McCutchen 3rd, Posey or Longoria 4th and 5th.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:01:12 GMT -5
Roger likes to bring up Killebrew hitting third. But he fails to mention that those old Twins teams had a number of BANGERS, Alison, Hall, Battey just to name a few, who could all hit 20+ HRs. Rog -- Perhaps a little comparison here would make sense. Let's look at comparative homers by the two teams. You mentioned Allison, Hall and Battey specificially, adding there may have been other power hitters as well. Let's look at the last two years for the Giants' present power hitters and 1960 and 1961 for the Senators/Twins. I picked 1960 and 1961 because they were the most plate appearances for Harmon in the #3 position in the order of any two back-to-back years I could find. Harmon batted #3 an even 800 times in those two seasons combined. The past two seasons Buster has hit 26 homers. Evan Longoria has hit 56. Andrew McCutchen, 52. Brandon Belt, 35. In 1960 and 1961 Harmon hit 77, Bob Lemon hit 52, Allison 44 and Battey 32. No other Senator/Twin reached double figures in homers either of the other two seasons. Buster has averaged 13 homers the past two seasons. Evan, Andrew and Brandon have averaged 72. In 1960 and 1961 Harmon averaged 38 homers. Lemon, Allison and Battey averaged 64. You don't think it makes as much sense to hit Buster's 13 homers ahead of Longoria's, McCutchen's and Belt's 72 than it did to bat Harmon's 38 homers in front of Lemon's, Allison's and Battey's 64? Of course it would. Now, I'm not recommending the Giants hit Buster third as the Senators(last season)/Twins(first season) did with Harmon. I'm suggesting fourth. But by using the Senators/Twins as an example to prove your point, you have demonstrated that it isn't crazy to bat a slow guy third. Cookie Lavagetto (from Oakland) and Sam Mele may not have been the best managers in the world, but they didn't think it was crazy. Buster doesn't have near the power that Harmon had, and in 1960 and 1961, when Harmon batted third the most, the Twins had less power behind him than the Giants likely will in 2018. One could make a decent argument for Buster to hit third this season. Although I would hit him fourth, one simply CAN'T make a good argument for hitting him fifth. One could make an argument that McCutchen is in Buster's class as a hitter. One can't make a good argument that Evan is as good a hitter. If we go back to 2013 and before, one can. But not the Evan of the past four seasons. You could look it up. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58KnGdHRO
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:02:33 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:04:36 GMT -5
That's how I would do things... maybe not you, nor others. To ME, it's not even a discussable option. Rog -- Here is the most difficult thing I see here, Boly. IIRC you said that no one who had played or managed baseball beyond high school would consider batting a slow batter third. That was a demeaning comment, and it was incorrect. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58KwnHOrB
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 14:21:01 GMT -5
I believe Posey will get more to hit with Longoria hitting behind him...that's why my order goes like this...
Jackson/Blanco Panik Cutch Posey Longo Craw Pence Belt
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:31:17 GMT -5
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 14:35:06 GMT -5
The only way Belt will lead this roster in OBP is if there is lots of failure up and down the order. That said, lots of teams use the 8 spot as a second leadoff spot...so a high OBP is not a bad thing in the 8 spot, is it?
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 27, 2018 14:42:06 GMT -5
I also put him down there because he is the worst run producer on the team
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 27, 2018 14:44:12 GMT -5
Batting Belt 8th would be a mistake, imo. The 8th place hitter has long been considered to be the worst hitter in the lineup, and that's not totally inaccurate. I, however, believe that in extended lineups where the whole lineup needs to be good at scoring, the 8th place hitter should also be considered the last line of defense..(in this case, offense.) The 8th place guy needs to be aggressive and make things happen with pitches off the plate and not allow the opposing pitcher to get away with mistakes. Brandon Crawford fits that mold better than Belt. In other words, Belt needs more protection than a pitcher to be successful, Crawford doesn't.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:54:19 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:55:55 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 14:57:14 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 27, 2018 15:02:24 GMT -5
The 8th place guy needs to be aggressive and make things happen with pitches off the plate and not allow the opposing pitcher to get away with mistakes. Rog -- That's only half the picture, Boagie. Yes, if a #8 hitter can expand the strike zone efficiently (almost none can) with say two outs and a runner on second, it can be an advantage. But with one out in particular, it helps for that #8 hitter to get on board so the pitcher can bunt and so the lead off hitter can lead off the subsequent inning. Remember, even with two outs and a runner in scoring position, you're looking only at the specific inning, not the one after it. But what if it's the bottom of the ninth, you say? In that case, the team will almost certainly use a pinch hitter for the pitcher if the pitcher comes up. And the likelihood is good that the pinch hitter will be at least as good as the #8 hitter. What I don't get is that no one here seems to be able to see ahead. A good manager certainly does. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58LAcx1UE
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 27, 2018 17:47:56 GMT -5
Rog- Yes, if a #8 hitter can expand the strike zone efficiently (almost none can) with say two outs and a runner on second, it can be an advantage. But with one out in particular, it helps for that #8 hitter to get on board so the pitcher can bunt and so the lead off hitter can lead off the subsequent inning.
Boagie- This doesn't make sense, unless you are expecting the pitcher to bunt into a double play.
I'm not sure why you lecture us about our sound ideas and then come at us with flawed ones.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 28, 2018 9:25:24 GMT -5
Rog- Yes, if a #8 hitter can expand the strike zone efficiently (almost none can) with say two outs and a runner on second, it can be an advantage. But with one out in particular, it helps for that #8 hitter to get on board so the pitcher can bunt and so the lead off hitter can lead off the subsequent inning.
Boagie- This doesn't make sense, unless you are expecting the pitcher to bunt into a double play.
Rog -- You're absolutely right, Boagie. Sorry. I meant to say the pitcher can bunt OR the lead off hitter can lead off the next inning. Thanks for the correction. It didn't make any sense at all the way I wrote it.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 1, 2018 9:01:51 GMT -5
I'm not sure why you lecture us about our sound ideas
Rog -- When confidently saying that the 8th-place hitter should be one who can expand the zone, Boagie, have you ever examined:
. How well a hitter hits when he expands the zone? He's by definition swinging at less hitable pitches, which also likely causes him to swing at worse pitches than he otherwise would, since the pitch six inches outside his new hitting zone is a much worse than the pitch six inches off his usual hitting zone.
. The impact on the following inning of the 8th-place hitter's getting on base less often?
My guess is no, or at the very least you would have a little doubt about what you are recommending. Too often you guys accept baseball dogma rather than examining the entire situation.
Boly said, for instance, that it took "three or more" hits to score Buster, when in reality only once among his 62 runs last season was that the case. He also says that a "base clogger" is a base runner who can't go from first to third on a hit to right, right-center or right at least half the time.
I made an estimate of how often Buster would be on first base with fewer than two outs (getting to second would put him in scoring position, and with two outs, that is all that is necessary) and either McCutchen or Longoria would single to the outfield in one of those three areas. I came up with 17, but let's call it 20.
Buster very likely is below 50% on such situations, but probably by 10%. Let's double that and make it 20%. That tells us that there would be about four times per season where Buster wouldn't make it to third when a player who meets Boly's requirement would make it.
Four bases is a reason for a guy not to bat third? Four bases? Then again, there would be times when Buster wouldn't score on a single with two outs or score from first on a double with two outs. So let's double it.
Eight bases? That's a reason to disqualify a guy from batting third? Heck, if Buster gets thrown out on the bases only two or three times fewer than the other guy Boly would accept, that eight-base difference is gone. And Buster IS pretty good at avoiding getting thrown out on the bases. Last season, for instance, he was thrown out on the bases only three times even if we include his seven steal attempts.
Automatically disqualifying a batter from batting third simply because he is slow isn't the right thing to do. The way to determine the #3 hitter is to consider all the factors, including which hitters will be hitting before and after the #3 hitter. And that is what major league managers often if not usually do and why many #3 hitters, both now and in the past, have been or are slow.
Only once last season did it take three hits to score Buster Posey. Boly mentioned the scenario as if it happened quite often if not regularly. Clearly he wasn't looking at the situation as it is.
Simplistic, dogmatic answers are sometimes right. But very often they are wrong. A truly good baseball man doesn't simply accept what "the book" says. He examines the situation as closely as he can to be sure "the book" is right, and that it is right in every case.
In this case Boly is going by "the book" when many managers haven't done so.
Here is what is ironic. When this topic first came up, Boly said that anyone who would consider batting a slow runner third clearly hasn't played or coached above high school. The truth is that many big league managers clearly have considered it, since they not only considered but acted upon it. What Boly implied was wrong to consider (batting a slow guy third) actually is one of the RIGHT things to consider.
In putting down those who would consider it, he put down a lot of managers past and present.
What I lecture you guys on are four things:
. Open your minds
. Get as much accurate information as you can
. Then make your decision in as informed a manner as you can.
. Even then, remain open to new information, even seeking it out.
When you do this, you will be entering the new age of baseball. Baseball decisions are in many cases being made more wisely than in the past.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 1, 2018 10:57:33 GMT -5
Rog -- When confidently saying that the 8th-place hitter should be one who can expand the zone, Boagie, have you ever examined:
. How well a hitter hits when he expands the zone? He's by definition swinging at less hitable pitches, which also likely causes him to swing at worse pitches than he otherwise would, since the pitch six inches outside his new hitting zone is a much worse than the pitch six inches off his usual hitting zone.
Boagie- Have you ever considered foul balls? Hitting zones only record the result, not what got them to that result. This goes back to my point of lecturing us on something you fail to see by just looking at your charts and graphs. It is you that needs to expand your mind, and not present recycled drivel time and time again. Fouling off a pitch so you can get another one is a big part of the game, and a bigger part of batting 8th. Someday I hope you realize the true value of statistics and cease using them in the one dimensional way you have thus far. There is much more to the game than spreadsheets and calculators.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 1, 2018 13:42:47 GMT -5
Boly said, for instance, that it took "three or more" hits to score Buster, when in reality only once among his 62 runs last season was that the case. He also says that a "base clogger" is a base runner who can't go from first to third on a hit to right, right-center or right at least half the time.
***boly says***
I was giving an example, nothing more.
Every time I watch a game, I see Posey, Hundley, Sandoval, and/or Jones STOPPING at 2B when others with above average speed would "likely" have gotten to third.
Same thing in scoring.
I'm tired of watching base cloggers have to be held up because they have less than average speed.
I don't need fancy numbers to cherry pick what I see and don't see, Rog.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 1, 2018 13:46:25 GMT -5
Here is what is ironic. When this topic first came up, Boly said that anyone who would consider batting a slow runner third clearly hasn't played or coached above high school. The truth is that many big league managers clearly have considered it, since they not only considered but acted upon it. What Boly implied was wrong to consider (batting a slow guy third) actually is one of the RIGHT things to consider.
***boly says***
I wasn't wrong, and I'm not wrong when taken in context.
You conveniently LEFT out the follow up where I said that:
1-Sometimes the manager has no choice, and
2-In the case YOU brought up, Killebrew batting 3rd, the team was FULL of bangers hitting or capable of hitting 20+ HRs.
Allison, Hall, Battey, Killebrew, and one year, Versalles was close.
That team COULD hit the base clogger third, because at least 3 guys behind him COULD clear the bases with one swing.
I've implied this before, I'll come right out and say it now.
Hitting a clogger third, when there are OTHER, better options, in something other than a last resort, is down right counter productive, and foolish
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 1, 2018 22:39:43 GMT -5
Boagie- Have you ever considered foul balls? Hitting zones only record the result, not what got them to that result. Rog -- I agree with what you say here, and to be honest, I hadn't considered foul balls directly. But it makes sense that a batter is more likely to foul a bad ball than one in the strike zone, which means the impact of more added strikes from those pitches would make the pitches outside the strike zone even worse to swing at than the heat chart. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58YjVtM3c
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 1, 2018 22:41:11 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 1, 2018 23:00:15 GMT -5
Boly said, for instance, that it took "three or more" hits to score Buster, when in reality only once among his 62 runs last season was that the case. He also says that a "base clogger" is a base runner who can't go from first to third on a hit to right, right-center or right at least half the time. ***boly says*** I was giving an example, nothing more. Rog -- Here is what you said: "It does ZERO good to get on base in the 3 hole, if it takes 3 or more hits to drive you in; that's Posey." Isn't that a statement, not merely an example? And if it's an example, wouldn't it make sense to us an example that applied more than 2% of the time? Career-wise, I'm pretty sure it IS more than 2% -- but not nearly a high enough percentage to have it exclude Buster from batting third. We agree that Buster shouldn't bat third regularly this season. But excluding him MERELY because he's a slow runner is ignoring the other important -- many of them MORE important than speed -- factors than speed that go into picking the #3 hitter. Remember, you said that no one who had played or coached at a level higher than high school would even CONSIDER batting Buster third. I believe you said they would need to be from another planet. But you still seem to be ignoring that Bruce Bochy, that old grade school coach, has done so over 1000 times. Not to mention Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera and many others. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4320/voting-order-who-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58Ylbah8ARead more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58YkOpyaK
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 1, 2018 23:03:03 GMT -5
You conveniently LEFT out the follow up where I said that: 1-Sometimes the manager has no choice, and 2-In the case YOU brought up, Killebrew batting 3rd, the team was FULL of bangers hitting or capable of hitting 20+ HRs. Allison, Hall, Battey, Killebrew, and one year, Versalles was close. Rog -- it might be worth going back and reading or re-reading what I wrote about 1960 and 1961, the two back-to-back seasons I could find where Harmon batted third the most. I think perhaps you didn't read it yet, because if you did, you seem to have ignored it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=2#ixzz58YpJzrFu
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