Who will bat lead off?

[rog]

On KNBR this morning, Larry Krueger cited Brian Sabean's saying that the Giants would use a high-OBP at lead off this season cited Steven Duggar (if he makes the team and hits well enough), Joe Panik and Brandon Belt as the top three possibilities.  Duggar is leading off today.

[sfgdood]

I don't see how you DON'T use Austin Jackson against lefties. Against righties I would use either Duggar or Blanco. I want our 2-5 to be Panik, Cutch, Buster and Longoria...the order can be tweeked but I want Joe 2nd most days.

[klaiggeb]

I can't see Austin sitting vs LHP either, Randy.

I also don't see Duggar making the club out of ST.

Which mean, IMHO, that Blanco and Austin split time in CF.

But the thing is, ALL reports I read about Jackson say he hasn't played much CF since... 2015.

54 in 2016 and 36 in 2017.

From what I've seen in watching recent videos, he really doesn't have very good range out there anymore.

Better than Span, but not much more than average.

By comparison, last year, Strat had Span at a "4" in CF

According to Strat he's fallen off the table BIG TIME since 2014, when he was a "1"

2015 and 2016="3"


Austin Jackson, on the other hand, went from a "2" in 2015, and a "3" every year since.

An upgrade over Span for sure, but not what we really want patrolling our CF.


boly

[klaiggeb]

I'm on record, and I'm sticking to my desires, of having Pence, 1 hole.

NOT my ideal guy, but for OUR team, I like him best there.

I'm thinking WAY outside the box here, because I do NOT want Belt hitting 1 hole anymore.

As I've said before, and been poo-pooed by almost everyone:

Pence
Panik
McCutchen
Longoria/Posey
Posey/Longoria
Belt
Crawford
CF


However, with Blanco in the line up, I'd BET we see this:

Blanco
Panik
McCutchen
Longoria/Posey
Posey/Longoria
Pence/Belt
Belt/Pence
Crawford

boly

[Islandboagie]

Over the last number of years you've stated that a leadoff hitter MUST have an OBP of no lower than .350. Since Pence's OBP last season .315 your own criteria objects to Pence leading off.

[sfgdood]

I don't want a free swinger like Pence batting leadoff. He strikes out WAY too much for me.

[rog]

There are so many aspects to all this.

Randy mentioned that he can't see Jackson NOT playing center field against southpaws. I agree with him that Austin will get plenty of action against southpaws, who he pounded in 2017. The strange thing though is that going into last season, he had barely any platoon split at all. In other words, until last season, he hit righties about as well as lefties.

If Boly is right and Duggar starts in Sacramento, a platoon of Blanco and Jackson would seem to make excellent sense, with Jackson perhaps getting the majority of the starts even though he's the short side of the platoon.

Duggar is apparently getting a full look in center this spring though.

Randy likes the 2-5 hitters to be Panik, McCutchen, Posey and Longoria, and that seems to make excellent sense. About the only difference I would see is that if Panik were to bat lead off, Belt could slot into the #2 spot, at least against right-handers.

As for Hunter's batting lead off, he's done so in the past with slight success. He hasn't been quite as good there as in the rest of the positions overall, but it hasn't been a night and day difference. The one thing he hasn't done in his 323 at bats leading off is get on base, which hasn't been his strength anyway.

Hunter's forte may be batting in runs. Clearly with the limited power and RBI potential the Giants have, it doesn't make sense to lead off with an RBI guy who doesn't get on base well. Maybe Boly can give us further explanation as to why he likes Pence leading off. Despite Hunter's speed (still), it can't be because of his base stealing leading off. On his career he has stolen just five bases while being thrown out five times while batting lead off.

Hunter hasn't hit well leading off an inning, either, and he's been downright awful leading off the game.

As to not having Hunter lead off because he strikes out a lot, it is one of the other true outcomes (strikeout, walk, homer, where fielders aren't involved) that prevents Hunter from being a good lead off man. His 63 strikeouts in 323 at bats as a lead off hitter are just fine, but his paltry 20 walks aren't.

One idea if Blanco or Duggar plays center field against right-handers and Jackson plays against southpaws would be to have Blanco leading off with Belt down in the order against righties, with Jackson then being in the middle/bottom of the order against southpaws and Belt leading off.

Belt has gotten on base 34.4% of the time against southpaws, but last season he stood at only .313. It wouldn't be a shock to see the Giants go with Blanco/Duggar/Jackson as the normal lead off man, with Belt down in the order, likely batting sixth or seventh.

Defensively, for what it's worth, the metrics show both Span and Jackson falling off after 2013. The difference is that Jackson fell off somewhat normally for an aging (not aged) player, while Span fell off a cliff. Blanco is still a decent outfielder I think, and Duggar has a nice reputation.

It will be a huge plus for the Giants if Duggar can be a nice center fielder this season. Solves the position and the lead off spot.

Finally, let's look at the hitters' strengths and weaknesses and then see where they might fit.

Duggar -- Gets on base. Can he hit enough to keep the OBP up?

Pence -- More of an RBI guy than an on base guy.

Panik -- Gets on base and handles the ball well, making him a good #2 hitter from both the traditional and more modern standpoints.

Belt -- Questionable to how good he is as an RBI guy, but, man, can he get on base. He also is one of the few Giants power hitters though.

McCutchen -- Has hit a lot of three-hole and is one of the best hitters on the team, including some power.

Posey -- The best hitter for average, a very good OBP guy, lacking power for clean up, the slowest of these guys, although he's a good base runner for his speed.

Longoria -- Power potential, limited batting average at this point, has driven in 100 runs twice, hasn't gotten on base the past four seasons.

Jackson -- Average hitter, has speed but hasn't stolen bases the past two seasons, limited power.

Crawford -- Seems to have a knack for driving in key runs. Below average speed, but an OK base runner. Has been OK batting seventh and eighth, and by far his best spot has been hitting fifth (perhaps because he bats there primarily when he's hot).

[klaiggeb]

Like I said, Pence is NOT my first choice, NOR my ideal choice.

But on our club, we really don't have a lot of options.

My second choice would be a line up like this:

Panki
Belt
McCutchen
Longoria/Posey
Posey/Longoria
Pence
Crawford
CF

[rog]

That lineup's not bad, Boly. It could easily happen if the center fielder doesn't establish himself as the lead off hitter.

I wouldn't consider batting Longoria cleanup though. At this point in his career, he's not likely nearly the hitter Buster is.

[klaiggeb]

I like Longoria 4, because he has considerably more power.

Buste at 5, can protect Evan


But I think I know Bochy pretty well when it comes to lineups.

I predict it'll be Blanco or Austin Jackson 1 hole for quite a while.

Too bad.


IMHO that is NOT a good option.

boly

[Islandboagie]

1. You like the idea of Pence leading off

2. You don't like the idea of Blanco and/or Jackson leading off.

Both Blanco and Jackson had a better OBP than Pence last season, so batting them leadoff would make more sense. They're also faster and have less power than Pence. I might understand both thought processes seperately, but together?

Sorry, Boly. It just makes zero sense.

[rog]

I like Longoria 4, because he has considerably more power.

Buster at 5, can protect Evan


Rog -- I hate to disagree with you all the time, Boly, but don't you have that backwards? Don't you want a good hitter (and a power hitter if possible) to protect your best hitter? Although I personally like it McCutchen followed by Buster, one could make a good argument to bat Buster third and Andrew fourth.

What is really tough is to argue that a guy with a .737 OPS last season in front of a guy with an .861 OPS. You make a point that Evan hit 36 homers in 2016, but doesn't that look like the outlier when it's surrounded by 22, 21 and 20?

Batting a pre-2014 Evan ahead of Buster? Sure. One could see Evan hitting third (which, by the way, is mostly where he hit back then) and Buster fourth (which, by the way, is mostly where he hit back then -- and now).

The Giants' two best hitters are Buster and Andrew McCutchen. Doesn't it make sense to bat them three and four? It's a little sad given the hopes the Giants are placing in Evan, but Brandon Belt is probably a better hitter at this stage of their respective careers. But unless someone like Steven Duggar establishes himself as the clear lead off man, batting Panik and Belt one/two or two/one seems an easy call.

I believe you are looking at the old Longoria (or younger, depending on how we look at it). He was an outstanding player, an All-Star in his first three seasons. He hasn't made the All-Star team since.

The past four seasons Longoria has hit .253,.270,.273 and .261. His on base percentages have been .320,.328,.318 and .313. That would be acceptable if he were a 30-35 homer guy. Instead, he's averaged 25.

Longoria isn't the hitter you remember. The Giants are hoping for a 2016 season from him. A 2014, 2015 or 2017 season will be a disappointment. That sounds kind of like three to one odds to me.

[rog]

Aren't we back to the argument that a slow guy CAN'T bat third? Even though players such as Votto, Rizzo and Cabrera have batted there the vast majority of the time? Even though players such as McCovey and Killebrew batted there a fair amount?

With McCutchen available to hit third, I like batting Buster fourth rather than third. But why would a team want to drop its best hitter to fifth?

I'll admit Bonds did it for a while (almost a fifth of his plate appearances), but let's just say that a slow guy bats third a lot more often than a team hits its best hitter fifth.

At this point in his career, Evan might be only the Giants' fifth best hitter (behind Belt and Panik). He may not be as powerful as McCutchen (who has hit one more homer over the past four season than Evan despite 200 fewer at bats). Because he's a right-handed hitter, he's probably more powerful than Belt, but he doesn't get on base anywhere nearly as often.

Aren't we talking about the Evan Longoria of today, not the Evan of his first six seasons in the majors. Take a look at his year-by-year record. It's like we're looking at two different players.

[sfgdood]

I predict it'll be Blanco or Austin Jackson 1 hole for quite a while.

Too bad.


IMHO that is NOT a good option.

boly

Dood - but still FAR better options than Belt and Pence

[rog]

Check this out. Evan Longoria is no longer much above average against right-handed pitching. His OPS against righties the past four seasons has been .691, .695, .864 and .760. In one of the past four seasons he was very good. In one he was average. In two he was well below average. The only positive point one can make is that Evan's top two of the four seasons came the past two seasons.

While Evan's .760 against right-handers last season was acceptable, his .678 against southpaws wasn't.

Give us back the old Evan Longoria (pre-2014), and let's talk.

[rog]

Why don't you like Brandon Belt as a lead off hitter, Randy? The primary job of the lead off hitter is to get on base, and Brandon is the Giants' best at doing so. Only Buster Posey is even close.

Incidentally, while Brandon has only one at bat leading off, he's been a good hitter in the two through six spots. He's been about average batting seventh and lousy batting eighth.

Here are Baseball-Reference's projections this season for Blanco, Jackson, Belt, Panik, McCutchen, Posey and Longoria:

Blanco .250/.331/.375/.706

Jackson .276/.337/.422/.759

Belt .263/.365/.473/.837

Panik .275/.343/.421/.765

McCutchen .279/.363/.486/.849

Posey .299/.373/.451/.824

Longoria .262/.317/.453/.760


When we look at the projections, Gregor Blanco (a fourth or fifth outfielder) stands out as the worst hitter. Austin Jackson (a fourth outfielder), Joe Panik and Evan Longoria show up as average. Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen and Brandon Belt show up as very good.

If we were looking at the pre-2014 Longoria, he would probably project as the top hitter of them all. But that was four and more years ago.

As Abraham Lincoln once said, "Four and more and 120 (OPS) points ago ..." Just for fun, Longoria's BEST OPS of the past four seasons is .840 (I'll take it!). His WORST of his first six seasons was .842.

In other words, today's Evan Longoria at his best is no better than the early Evan Longoria at his worst. We're talking about a guy who was on a Hall of Fame track who is now an average major league third baseman. One who at age 32 probably doesn't have his glory days ahead of him.

Put two-and a half times Evan's first six seasons together, and we've got a Hall of Famer. Put five (the guaranteed years Evan has left on his contract) of his past four years together, and we've got an average third baseman. And the odds are that Evan will continue to decline over his final five seasons.

Evan's top two comps at the plate are Eric Chavez and Doug DeCinces. Chavez had fewer than 1000 plate appearances after age 32, and DeCinces hit about .250 with fewer than 20 homers per season after that age.

Evan could bounce back this season to his fine 2016 season. The odds are better that he'll have a season like 2014, 2015 or 2017.

[Islandboagie]

How do you call Belt a good first baseman and Longoria an average third baseman?

I realize the sabremetrics nerds believe BAPIP or whatever you call it is really crucial, but they've tricked themselves into putting those obscure stats ahead of basic production stats.

Sabremetrics are good for putting into focus those gray areas that aren't always recalled over 162 games. It helps us with the details

Average, homeruns, RBIs are more clear.

Longoria has Brandon on all of those.

Perhaps Boly thinks Longoria is better than he is, but he is definitely better than "average."

[klaiggeb]

Here's the dilemma I'd face, (that Bochy IS facing) in putting together a line up.

1-The one hole guy SHOULD be able to run

2-The one hole guy SHOULD have a high OBP

3-The one hole guy SHOULD be able to hit AT LEAST .270


Now back to reality.

We don't have that guy.


1-Our best OBP guy is Belt; Lifetime .358 OBP, which is great... but who is below average at best on the bases.

Strat rates him a 1-11, which, as I said, is BELOW average

In the one hole HE is a base clogger, and that is a no-no in my book

Base cloggers UP in the line up means you must have bangers behind them; Ummmm. We don't have that, either.


2-Blanco and/or Austin can run some.

In fact, Strat rates Blanco a, 1-15, which is very good, and Austin a 1-14 which is good.

But NEITHER has the OBP we're looking for. Jackson .336 life time, Blanco .343

3-Neither is likely to hit .270, although Jackson, when platooning vs LHP has shown that ability somewhat.

4-Our next best option is Panik, lifetime OBP .345.

That part looks pretty good, +, IMHO, he's way better than a .270 hitter.

But Joe has, at best AVERAGE speed. Strat rates him a 1-13; slightly above average.

5-Pence is a free swinger, and CERTAINLY not my first choice to hit one hole

Add to that a career OBP of .337;

Oh.

Wait.

.337?

That can't be!

He's a free swinger!

Umnmnmmmm, that's BETTER than Jackson, and within .6 of Blanco!


So there goes the argument that as a free swinger, he doesn't get on base enough.



Here's MY rationale for picking Hunter:

I choose Pence because he can run some.

Strat rates him a 1-14; equal to Jackson and slightly lower than Blanco, who is NEVER going to hit .270



On OUR TEAM, IMHO he's the best option for a guy who has above average to good speed, HAS a lifetime OBP that is close enough to Panik and Blanco and Jackson, AND who has more pop than any of those three, and thus:

a-Can lead off the game with an HR.
b-Drive in the bottom of the line up, because as Roger loves to point out, the 1 hole guy USUALLY only leads off an inning once/game.

So I'll repeat myself: there goes the argument that he's a free swinger, and he doesn't get on base enough.


My argument should satisfy Roger, because I've backed up opinion with solid, historical numbers.

There is no counter, according to Sabermetric people, for numbers.


But it WON'T satisfy others, boagie and Randy, because, well, he's not their first choice.

They have a different opinion, and that's okay.


But I've laid out a solid, SOLID case as to why my option is best.

boly

[klaiggeb]

As to Longoria, boagie, he's a 32 year old coming off a down, HR season, but who still drove in 80+ runs on a team that finished below .500

He's a .270 lifetime hitter with power.

But he's 32.

Sorry, but that ain't old.

I EXPECT... no, DEMAND a 32 year old to STILL be in his prime.

That's neither asking, nor expecting what hasn't been done a LOT before.

I expect:

.265-.275

18-25 HRs

85-95 RBIs.

If that's thinking more of him than he is...okay.


Now let's compare that to what I think of Posey.

I expect:

.285-.295

12-16 HRs

70-80 RBIs

and you're right, Rog, I DON'T think he's going to do any more than hit for a higher average than Longoria.

He'll hit for higher average, but RBIs?

Nope.

More power?

Nope.

Longoria had 58 extra base hits, Posey had 47.

From where I sit, that is a pretty significant difference.

boly

[sfgdood]

Belt is a slow oaf as brittle as a twig...both Jackson and Blanco have tons of experience leading off...Belt doesn't. That's why.

[sfgdood]

As for Pence, he's a strikeout machine. He's consistently over 100 per year. I don't want that in a leadoff man. Plus he, like Belt, gets hurt way too easily. We need to wean ourselves OFF this guy and bring in more OFers that can stay healthy. Batting him leadoff isn't the way to do that.

As for Blanco and Jackson, since what we are considering here is a platoon, we need only look at the split stats. Jackson's OPS vs lefties last year was 1.014. Vs. righties, Blanco had an OBP of 368.

Is that good enough for you Boly?

[klaiggeb]

That is good enough, for sure.

But note, Randy, I was looking at historical numbers.

If those two perform at last year's pace, I can live with that.

boly

[sfgdood]

The career stats are a better look at what the player does as a general rule...last year's stats are a better snapshot of what the player is right now.

[rog]

Here's the dilemma I'd face, (that Bochy IS facing) in putting together a line up.

1-The one hole guy SHOULD be able to run

2-The one hole guy SHOULD have a high OBP

3-The one hole guy SHOULD be able to hit AT LEAST .270


Now back to reality.

We don't have that guy.


Rog -- Perhaps Steven Duggar.

The requirements you give for leading off are good ones except for batting .270. If the lead off man gets on base at a high enough rate, it doesn't matter if he gets there entirely by walking. Eddie Stanky didn't hit quite .270, but he got on base 41% of the time and was considered a good lead off man despite stealing only four bases in an 11-year career.

Duggar can run, and he has gotten on base well. If he doesn't hit, he likely won't get on base enough. If he does, he'll likely be the Giants' lead off man.

If he can't do it, Gregor Blanco and Austin Jackson might form a platoon at lead off. But both are in reality extra outfielders. They probably wouldn't get on base enough.

Joe Panik gets on base and is a decent base runner. Brandon Belt gets on base and is only a little below average as a base runner. He's only half a run below average in Base Running Runs, but that includes grounding into double plays (and thus removing a base runner), which wouldn't come into play as often in the lead off spot, so in reality he's a bit more below average. But his getting on base has been so exceptional -- not too bad even when he's not hitting -- that he isn't a horrible choice to lead off. Realistically though, with his power, he should bat second behind Panik.

But Steven Duggar could render the discussion moot.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off#ixzz58AaHm5ji

[rog]

Base cloggers UP in the line up means you must have bangers behind them; Ummmm. We don't have that, either.


Rog -- It means that a team has to have some combination of bangers, batters who are good at advancing runners, and players who are themselves good at getting on base (particularly via hits) so that they drive the runner home.

If a batter is slow, his best chance to score is actually leading off or batting second, since the hitters behind him are the most likely to drive him in.

Belt isn't particuarly a base clogger, although last season he got thrown out too often trying to advance. Of course, that unclogs the bases in a hurry.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58AeC32z0

[rog]

But Joe has, at best AVERAGE speed. Strat rates him a 1-13; slightly above average.


Rog -- This statement baffles me, not that I think Joe does have great speed. What confuses me is the statement saying that Joe has AT BEST average speed, followed by a statement that a rating system you value shows him at slightly above average.

I think Joe is as you say, a somewhat averagish as a runner. But he's not so slow or so reckless that if the best hitters on the team produce, he won't be able to score. And since he gets on base more often, he gives them the opportunity more often to let them do their job and drive him in.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58Af30Zru

[rog]

I EXPECT... no, DEMAND a 32 year old to STILL be in his prime.


Rog -- But his results the past four seasons say that regardless of what we demand, expect or even wish, he isn't. In proposing a lineup, shouldn't we deal with what IS rather than what we demand, expect or wish?




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58AorfnDJ

[Islandboagie]

Although the Giants have improved their offense substantially, I don't believe they're the type of offense that can throw a slow runner in the leadoff spot and not be negatively affected by it.

This isn't the days of Kent and Bonds where leading off with a guy like David Bell was doable.

The Giants are a singles and doubles offense where the leadoff guy should be able to score from second on a single and first on a double.

I am in agreement with Randy, based on Jackson's numbers last season I think leading off with him and Blanco would be the smart way to go. At least until those guys prove otherwise. Leading off with Pence or batting Belt second seems more like an emergency move.

[rog]

Now let's compare that to what I think of Posey.

I expect:

.285-.295

12-16 HRs

70-80 RBIs

and you're right, Rog, I DON'T think he's going to do any more than hit for a higher average than Longoria.

He'll hit for higher average, but RBIs?

Nope.


Rog -- The biggest problem Buster would face in trying to drive in as many runs behind Longoria is that he wouldn't have nearly as many chances to drive in Evan and the guys who bat ahead of Even as Evan would have with Buster batting ahead of him.

Ignoring that Evan would make the third out of the inning more often than Buster and thus give Buster a lesser chance to drive in the one, two and three hitters, based on the past four seasons, Evan would give Buster about 20% fewer chances to drive Evan in than Buster would give to Evan if Buster batted ahead of Evan.

It is likely that at the end of the season the RBI's Buster and Evan would have combined would be at least as high with Buster batting fourth and Evan batting fifth than the other way around.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4318/who-bat-lead-off?page=1#ixzz58ApJRLrY

[rog]

Based on 500 plate appearances, last season Buster would have been on base close to 200 times when Evan came to the plate compared to about 150 times that Evan would have been on base for him.

Batting Buster fourth and Evan fifth would provide significantly more opportunities to drive runners in than batting Evan fourth and Buster fifth.

If you disagree with me, take it to the math teacher at your school. If you explain it correctly, he'll agree with me. It's simple mathematics.

I have posted this before, and it can change with the scoring environment in the game at the time, but there is a beauty to the fact that a batter must advance four bases to score a run. If we take the number of bases a team earns through hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide it by four, we get a reasonable approximation of the runs a team scores.

And based on their performances the past four seasons, the Giants will almost certainly accumulate more bases if Buster bats ahead of Evan compared to the other way around.