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Pence
Sept 14, 2017 9:28:25 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2017 9:28:25 GMT -5
2 straight games Pence has allowed a ball to drop between him and the 2Bman.
I've been questioning Hunter's eye sight all year long, but now, from personal experience, I'd like to add another.
He's showing all the signs of growing suddenly old, his reflexes and reactions not even close to what they once were.
And watching him play is sad.
Similar to the way I felt watching Mays with the Mets, stumble around in the outfield, swing through fat fast balls, and finally, misplaying and dropping catchable fly balls.
Ryder, who should be improving, isn't.
Blach suddenly looks like an aging left hander
Law... I don't even want to talk about what happened to him.
I just don't see how Pence or Pablo, for that matter, can even be considered in our plans for next year.
boly
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Pence
Sept 14, 2017 12:37:17 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2017 12:37:17 GMT -5
What surprised me the most last night was that Hunter didn't hustle after Bellinger's triple.
Speaking of Bellinger, we talk about guys like Slater, Jones, Parker, Williamson, etc. When one compares them to Bellinger or Hoskins or others, we can see that we're talking about somewhat marginal starters at best.
Bellinger has hit the ball hard 45% of the time, while Hoskins rests a tick higher at 46%. Austin has hit the ball hard 24% of the time, while Ryder suprisingly comes in a little higher at 31%.
As for Hoskins, when he came up, I thought he might hit 35 homers between AAA and the majors. Maybe even 40. I was going to post last night that he had reached 45! But I was late. He was already at 46. Now he could reach 50, and might even hit 55 if he stays red hot.
The point here is that if one looks closely, nearly all the players the Giants have brought up the past year or two clearly show they're long shots. Whether we've seen them or not. We cry for them to get shots, but their odds are so long that it almost doesn't matter.
Some of these guys might be able to help off the bench. Slater could make it as a starter if he learns to play center field, but his whiff on the ball the other night was a revelation.
If Arroyo learns to be more patient, he's got a shot. I think the rest of these guys are rather marginal.
One good sign was that Heliot Ramos (first-round pick) and Luis Gonzalez's son (2nd pick) had nice seasons in the Arizona Rookie League. Saw a picture of the Gonzalez kid, and he's really skinny. He might pick up some power as he fills out. 15 doubles and only one homer this (short) season.
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Pence
Sept 14, 2017 15:24:07 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 14, 2017 15:24:07 GMT -5
Not long shots, Rog, just NOT first round talent.
Slater is likely to be an above average major leaguer; so was Randy Winn.
so were so many others.
Slater was NOT a first rounder, the guys you mentioned were.
The Giants, other than Bonds, have NOT had 1st round-pound since the early 2000s.
They don't have superstars outside of Bum.
But we won 3 world titles.
We don't need a team full of 1st round pounders.
WE NEED a team that plays defense, PITCHES AND PITCHES WELL, and has SOME guys who will hit between 18-25 HRs.
We need a smart, fast team.
Right now, we don't have ANY of those things OUTSIDE OF Posey, Crawford, Panik and Belt.
Until we get them, we ain't going anywhere.
boly
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 13:14:10 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2017 13:14:10 GMT -5
Slater is likely to be an above average major leaguer; so was Randy Winn. Rog -- I doubt Austin will be as good a player as Randy was because Randy was a much better fielder and base stealer. Nevertheless, if Austin hits as well as Randy, he should still have a decent career -- especially if he can learn to play center field. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence#ixzz4slvqozFf
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 13:16:31 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2017 13:16:31 GMT -5
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 13:26:22 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2017 13:26:22 GMT -5
They don't have superstars outside of Bum.
Rog -- Buster is also a superstar. In fact, Buster is nearly a sure-fire Hall of Famer, while I would say that Madison is more of a likely one at this point.
I would say that Madison's primary credentials entering this season have been his fabulous postseason record and his consistent regular season marks. This season Madison has hurt the consistency part of the equation a little bit, although not enough to make much difference. If Madison wins 200 games, I think he will be a forgone conclusion for the Hall, and he's over halfway there. Of course, he was halfway there at the end of last season.
Having only three wins this season hasn't truly been his fault (other than the accident), but won-loss record is still used more than it should be. We know, for instance, how good a pitcher Matt Cain was, and Matt was less than a .500 pitcher. Shockingly so, for as well as he pitched.
By the way, Madison's next win will tie Matt. He's only five away from Tim Lincecum as a Giant.
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 13:34:48 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2017 13:34:48 GMT -5
Austin has plenty of speed to be a lead off man. But he's weak at stealing bases and needs to get on base more frequently. Austin has only six walks this season -- and 25 strikeouts. That's not what we're looking for from a contact hitter. As a base stealer, he has yet to attempt to steal in the majors, and he had only 24 steals in the minors.
You compared him to Randy Winn. Randy stole a high of 51 bases in a single season in the minors, and between the majors and minors, he stole 352 bags in his career, including 215 in the majors.
If Austin can be as good a major leaguer as Randy was, he should help the Giants. I simply don't think he will be. I do think Austin has a chance to help the Giants, but I don't see him as being much of a difference-maker.
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 14:59:37 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2017 14:59:37 GMT -5
I disagree, Rog, and I disagree vehmently.
I do NOT see Buster as a super star.
I don't, can't and won't UNTIL he puts up numbers like other superstars in the RBI and HR departments.
Mazeroski is a hall of famer, but he wasn't ever a superstar.
same with Vizquel and Ozzie Smith.
And those are just 2 names that come to mind.
boly
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 15:59:45 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 15, 2017 15:59:45 GMT -5
The players mentioned above are primarily one-way players. Buster is arguably the top two-way active player at his position.
Because of his position, among active players I might rank only Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera above him. The only other player I can think of would be Joey Votto.
Regarding Votto, I may be remembering wrongly, but I think I read that he has swung at the highest percentage of strikes and taken the highest percentage of balls of any player this season. I do know that he has swung at 71% of strikes while taking 84% of balls.
That's pretty darn good. By comparison, Joe Panik has swung at 62% of strikes and taken 75% of balls. Looked at another way, Votto has swung at all but 27% of strikes and taken all but 16% of balls, while Panik has swing at all but 38% of strikes and taken all but 25% of balls. Given how good Panik's selectivity is, Votto's record is amazing.
That selectivity contributed to Votto's reaching base at least TWICE in 20 consecutive games this season, just one fewer than the record.
As for Buster, about all he has to do from here on in is reach the required 10 seasons.
You are right, Boly, that Buster is a very good hitter, not an excellent one. But for a CATCHER, he's among the best hitters ever.
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Pence
Sept 15, 2017 18:07:30 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2017 18:07:30 GMT -5
I won't argue your last statement, because I agree.
He's awkward behind the plate, and certainly not as graceful as Molina or even Hundely... but IMHO, right now he IS the # 1 catcher in baseball.
boly
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Pence
Sept 16, 2017 1:09:09 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 16, 2017 1:09:09 GMT -5
right now he IS the # 1 catcher in baseball. Rog -- I think Buster has been the best catcher in baseball over his six full seasons (beginning with 2012). If a player is the best player at his position over that long a period, he's certainly approaching superstar status, if he hasn't reached it already. Particularly since with the exception of Yadier Molina, no one else is close. And Yadier himself will likely be a Hall of Famer himself. While Yadier will go in more because his glove than his bat, it is likely significant that Buster's career OPS is 110 points higher than Yadier's. It will almost certainly go down as he hits his decline phase, but right now Buster's .850 OPS might be behind only Mike Piazza among catchers. And that's playing in an extreme pitchers' park. OPS+, which takes into consideration home parks, lists Buster with a 135 OPS+ -- just seven points behind Mike Piazza. In other words, when the difficulty of his home park is taken into consideration, Buster has been more than a third better than the average hitter. Will Clark weighed in only two points higher at 137. Given Buster's position, he's been one heck of a hitter. It should be noted however that he has been declining since his 2012 MVP season. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence#ixzz4sooOCQ53
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Pence
Sept 16, 2017 2:15:22 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 16, 2017 2:15:22 GMT -5
Too bad Hunter was injured tonight. He is 10 for his last 17. If he could put on a clinic the next two weeks, he might regain some trade value. One thing that is a bit discouraging is that among the 10 hits, Hunter has only three extra bases (a triple and tonight's double).
I probably mentioned this before, but Hunter's true hitting must have been overrated over his career due to all the infield hits he accumulates. I believe they said he was #3 in the majors this season with something like 23 hits that didn't leave the infield. Given that he's missed over 20 games, that is amazing. Still has that speed of 28.5 feet per second, so most of his outfield troubles must have been caused by judgement, not a lack of fastness.
Perhaps the Giants can shed themselves of Hunter's $18 million or so next season if they package him with someone like Joe Panik, who is under team control at arbitration rates for the next three seasons. Maybe a team with a strong third outfielder would be willing to make a deal in order to acquire Panik.
The problem is, who here wants the Giants to trade Joe, who is both a good hitter and a fine fielder -- at a low price? But if the Giants are going to turn things around quickly, they're going to need to make a few surprising moves. Getting rid of Hunter would free up a lot of money to acquire a free agent or trade for a player with an expensive contract.
I was thinking the Cardinals might provide such a situation, but the development of Kolten Wong this season rids the Cards of a need for a second baseman.
Trading Hunter is going to be really tough. Not only is he declining at bat and in the field, but as he slows down, he won't beat out as many infield hits. Hunter could be out of the league in a couple of seasons.
But maybe a team will take a chance on his bouncing back.
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Pence
Sept 16, 2017 9:47:24 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 16, 2017 9:47:24 GMT -5
I'm sorry for Hunter that he got hurt, Rog, but I'm not sorry he won't be playing.
1-His defense in the outfield has been below average for a while now. I still think he is having vision problems.
2-Yeah, he's hit for average or so recently, but that is deceiving. How many balls has he 'driven' deep like he used to? Not many.
Most of his hits do not get far off the ground, and power? I mean 'gap' to "HR" power? Mostly non existent.
3-I want to see more of Parker and Williamson and Slater.
boly
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Pence
Sept 16, 2017 10:02:15 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 16, 2017 10:02:15 GMT -5
When we said that Hunter's defense was slipping the past two seasons, there wasn't much agreement. This season it's too noticeable to ignore.
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Pence
Sept 16, 2017 11:16:48 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 16, 2017 11:16:48 GMT -5
It is sad, that's for sure.
As I said previously, watching him play this year reminds me of watching Mays play his last couple of years.
You remember what he 'was,' and then see what he is... and it breaks your heart.
boly
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Pence
Sept 17, 2017 4:50:29 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 17, 2017 4:50:29 GMT -5
As measured by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), Hunter's defense hasn't been positive in any season since he joined the Giants. He had zero runs saved in 2015. All his other Giants seasons have been negative.
The fall of Denard Span as measured by DRS has been unbelievable. In 2012 Denard saved a highly impressive 19 runs. This season he has saved MINUS 28 runs. That's an amazing 47 run swing.
I guess one could describe it as a swing and a miss.
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Pence
Sept 17, 2017 4:56:56 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 17, 2017 4:56:56 GMT -5
Austin Slater has struck out nine times in his last six games, including three last night. During that period he hasn't walked even once. On the season, Austin has only six walks against 28 strikeouts. If Austin doesn't learn to walk more often, I don't see how he can be an effective starting outfielder. Possibly if he can learn to play a robust center field. But despite having the speed to do so, nothing in his history indicates he will be able to do so.
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Pence
Sept 17, 2017 9:46:05 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 17, 2017 9:46:05 GMT -5
Rog, we need to be patient with Austin at the moment.
He missed almost 2 months and ONLY had something like 6 or 7 at bats in his re hab.
Basically, this is a 2nd spring training for him, so him being over matched is NOT surprising.
Let's judge the kid when he's back playing every day.
boly
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Pence
Sept 18, 2017 9:19:59 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 18, 2017 9:19:59 GMT -5
Rog, we need to be patient with Austin at the moment. He missed almost 2 months and ONLY had something like 6 or 7 at bats in his re hab. Basically, this is a 2nd spring training for him, so him being over matched is NOT surprising. Let's judge the kid when he's back playing every day. Rog -- I'm not judging him on his recent play. I'm judging him primarily based on his minor league performance. Austin hit .308 with a .814 OPS in the minors. That would get the job done in the majors. But is he likely to come close to that? I believe you mentioned him in comparison to Randy Winn. Randy's Batting Average on Balls In Play in the minors was similar to Austin's. If Austin has a similar drop in the major leagues to Randy's, his average would drop to .276, and his OPS would be about .725. That's not nearly high enough for a corner outfielder starter. And while Austin has the speed to play center field, he doesn't look good enough defensively to make the change. We'd like Austin to bat lead off, but unless his average is around .300, he just doesn't get on base enough to fill that spot in the order -- and he doesn't even steal bases. So we wind up with a batter who doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order, and a fielder who plays left field because of his arm and inability to play center field. What we wind up with his a fourth or fifth outfielder. We'll see what happens when Austin DOES play every day in the majors. But if he does so, the Giants' outfield will be weak. I could be wrong about Austin. At best he might be able to be a second division left fielder. Aren't the Giants looking for a bit more? Now, if Austin could learn to play center. If he could learn to take a walk. If he could learn to steal bases. Then we'd have a player who might be able to make a bit of an impact. But he's shown no signs of being able to accomplish any of those things. Austin Slater is unlikely to become even an average major league left fielder. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence#ixzz4t2VA9dd1
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Pence
Sept 18, 2017 10:29:20 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 18, 2017 10:29:20 GMT -5
I compared him to Winn in terms of 'up side,' Rog, nothing more.
I can't compare him to Winn in terms of what he's done because for Austin, it's too small a sample size.
All I meant was, he has the ability above average to pretty good, not great.
boly
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 7:48:23 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 19, 2017 7:48:23 GMT -5
Randy Winn would make a nice upside for Austin. Here are the problems I see Austin's facing in reaching that upside target:
. Randy could steal bases (215 career)
. Randy was a good fielder who could play center field if needed
. Randy hit .290 with a .776 OPS for the Giants
. Randy struck out only once every six at bats
I mentioned Randy because he had a similar Batting Average on Balls In Play to Austin in the minors. Randy's BABIP fell sharply in the majors, and so will Austin's, which will bring Austin's average down, especially since he has struck out once every four at bats. Austin's .282 batting average isn't great, and it's propped up by an unsustainable .353 BABIP.
Austin has hit the ball hard less than once every four times. He's hit a line drive less than once every seven times. In short, even his .282 average seems to have been a bit lucky.
In short, he's got a long way to go to be a first-division corner outfielder. In short, it is very unlikely that will ever happen.
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 7:49:59 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 19, 2017 7:49:59 GMT -5
In short, it is likely Austin will come up short. Now if he could PLAY short ...
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 9:59:23 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 19, 2017 9:59:23 GMT -5
I was only talking about Austin as a hitter.
Why do you always seem hell bent to take comments, especially mine, out of context?
We were talking about hitting.
You took my comments in a different direction.
boly
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 10:35:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Islandboagie on Sept 19, 2017 10:35:20 GMT -5
Of all the young kids we've seen this season, Austin Slater has probably impressed me the most. Rog may not like his minor league stats, but Austin has been consistent throughout his progression in the farm system. And that speaks volumes to his ability to adjust at every level. Is he a future All Star? Probably not, but I could see him hitting 20 homeruns with 70+ RBIs in 500+ abs, which is what we need right now.
Don't worry too much what Rog says about our young outfielders, he thought Mac Williamson would stick at the major league level and Parker wouldn't. Parker hasn't been great, but he's certainly made a better case at sticking around than Williamson.
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 12:40:31 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 19, 2017 12:40:31 GMT -5
Parker has, boagie, agree.
I'll take 20+ HRs and 70RBIs from a guy like Slater in a heart beat.
Plus, he's a pretty decent to good outfielder.
I've always said that in OUR ballpark, you NEED/MUST HAVE outfielders who can play defense with good to very good range.
The one thing I've liked most about Parker this season, and really stands out? Since he's back, he's cut WAY down on his swings and misses.
And so many of his hard hit balls have been caught.
boly
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Pence
Sept 19, 2017 12:42:31 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Sept 19, 2017 12:42:31 GMT -5
To be fair to Rog, though, boagie, what he said was that neither was likely to stick... BUT the he thought Mac had the better chance.
boly
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Pence
Sept 20, 2017 9:48:54 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 20, 2017 9:48:54 GMT -5
I was only talking about Austin as a hitter. Why do you always seem hell bent to take comments, especially mine, out of context? We were talking about hitting. You took my comments in a different direction. Rog -- Sorry about that. What makes you believe that Austin will become as good a hitter as Randy was? I did mention that the only reason I brought up Randy was because of the similarity in his HITTING stats with those of Austin. And in the greater picture, if we're judging what type of player Austin can become, shouldn't we consider all aspects of his play? Still, sorry about going beyond the context of your comments. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence#ixzz4tELlAw1x
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Pence
Sept 20, 2017 9:51:39 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 20, 2017 9:51:39 GMT -5
Regarding context, I was surprised there wasn't any comment when it was pointed out that like Slater -- an eight-round pick -- neither Bellinger (4th round) nor Hoskins (6th round) was a first-round pick as had been mentioned.
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Pence
Sept 20, 2017 9:56:53 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 20, 2017 9:56:53 GMT -5
Of all the young kids we've seen this season, Austin Slater has probably impressed me the most. Rog may not like his minor league stats, but Austin has been consistent throughout his progression in the farm system. Rog -- Slater has impressed me the most too, in great part because there hasn't been much competition for him in that regard. I think it is possible Christian Arroyo will be the better player, but Christian certainly didn't show it this season. One thing to remember though is that Christian is two and a half years younger. As an aside, what was it that Christian and Kris Bryant had in common in high school (aside from being top-notch baseball players)? This is an academic comparison. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence?page=1#ixzz4tENiI2p6
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Pence
Sept 20, 2017 10:10:40 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Sept 20, 2017 10:10:40 GMT -5
I could see him hitting 20 homeruns with 70+ RBIs in 500+ abs, which is what we need right now. Rog -- No question the Giants could use an outfielder like that. Their outfield has been the worst in the majors, probably by quite a margin. That said, for the long term when the Giants try to build themselves back to being a perennial contender, .270 with 20 homers likely translates into a SLG of about .420 and an OBP of about .330. That would be an OPS of about .750, which isn't very good for a corner outfielder. Especially one who doesn't appear to be a great fielder (although certainly not bad) and who (surprisingly) doesn't steal bases. But if Slater does indeed hit 20 homers a season, he'll likely be a starter. What makes us think though that playing in AT&T, he'll average 20 homers a season? I could see him having a ceiling of similar success to that of Brandon Belt at the plate, but Austin's OBP would still be SO much lower than Brandon's. And I see that as his ceiling, although I think he might hit 10 points better than the .270. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4072/pence?page=1#ixzz4tEOw0mlo
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