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Post by Rog on Mar 5, 2017 19:38:48 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 5, 2017 20:14:40 GMT -5
typical liberal argument..."I'm right, you're wrong, so the discussion is over"
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Post by Rog on Mar 5, 2017 22:34:43 GMT -5
typical liberal argument..."I'm right, you're wrong, so the discussion is over" Rog -- Say what? This was just more information, although it was fairly convincing. But one would hope with something like this, the discussion would BEGIN, not end. Secondly, the type of "argument" you are discussing isn't a liberal one or a conservative one. As for Belt, I have come to realize that Brandon doesn't fit Boly's picture of a player, which is why he doesn't think he's good. In your case I will give you the benefit of the doubt and say it's related to how badly Brandon has disappointed you from your original lofty expectations. Brandon hasn't met my original expectations either, but I simply lowered them after his rookie season (or at least after his second campaign). He's now about where my adjusted expectations turned out to be. And because I didn't know much about his fielding, his clearly above average fielding has exceeded them. Some think Brandon could break out further with a 30/100 season. I'm not expecting that, although I could see a ceiling of 25/95. Possibly 30/100, but I think that would be an aberration. Where Brandon made his greatest improvement last season was in his plate control. He cut his strikeouts slightly and really added to his walks. More objective observers were rather impressed with his 2016 improvement. My own assessment is that he may have regressed slightly with regard to his actual hitting (not including his getting on base). His numbers (with the exception of improved RBI's, which as we've discussed is something of a team statistic) weren't that much different from 2015, and AT&T played much livelier last season. It still was toughest on lefty power hitters, so maybe we shouldn't have expected that much of an improvement from Brandon, but I'll be disappointed -- and I'm assuming the ball will remain live, which I believe it became around the time of the 2015 All-Star game -- if Brandon doesn't hit more homers in 2017 and improve his average at least a little bit. I'm expecting more from Brandon next season. Not a Miguel Cabrera type of season, but more than in 2016. With his improved plate control, there is really no reason he can't deliver. Brandon is good already, but I'm hoping he'll be even better in 2017. Last season he greatly exceeded my expectations for walks, but not in the other areas. Usually better plate control eventually results in better hitting though, which is why I'm optimistic for 2017. Here's a question for you and Boly. Just what would Brandon need to do in 2017 to reverse your opinions? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars#ixzz4aVoSs57a |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 6, 2017 0:39:43 GMT -5
100 RBI...at least
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 6, 2017 11:56:27 GMT -5
I think the argument for Brandon turning the corner is rock solid without much doubt left. The article demonstrates that well, but it's nothing that hasn't been discussed already. Anyone that hasn't already acknowledged this fact obviously needs more convincing, I for one hope they get convinced in 2017.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 6, 2017 13:33:18 GMT -5
Roger-I have come to realize that Brandon doesn't fit Boly's picture of a player, which is why he doesn't think he's good.
***boly says***
Roger, that's not what I said.
Not even close.
I don't think he's a top 10 first baseman, and you think he should be BECAUSE of reasons I've clearly stated.
1-Mental blunders that occur more frequently to him than other 1B this side of Marv Throneberry
2-He's not hit anywhere near the number of HRs of what he's capable of, and for an RBI guy, though he's improved, he's still way behind in the learning curve.
3-That massive, fall from grace in the 2nd half of last year.
Can't happen. Just can't.
I never said he's not good.
I've said on more than one occasion that he's a good fielding 1Bman, but NOT in the class of Will Clark, let alone JT Snow.
But he's not Carter, either, nor is he Dr. Strange glove, the Big Awful, Dick Stuart.
IF he's turned the corner, and I've already posted I liked what he did in an at bat this year, THEN I'll change my tune.
But until then... I see him as a massive under performer.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 6, 2017 14:13:27 GMT -5
Here's the bottom line...the Giants' biggest offensive deficiency is power. They aren't getting it anywhere, not even from Posey or Pence. They're definitely not getting it from the corner infielders. The question is how do you Belt lovers (Rog) propose to fix that problem, because it is a HUGE problem.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 6, 2017 15:02:34 GMT -5
Boly- I've said on more than one occasion that he's a good fielding 1Bman, but NOT in the class of Will Clark, let alone JT Snow.
Boagie- Belt is better defensively than Clark was, it's not even really close. And I was a big Clark guy. Belt has more range, a better arm, better feet around the bag and can dig balls in the dirt better. On JT Snow however I agree, although I think a comparison between Snow and Belt is closer than Belt and Clark.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 6, 2017 15:08:41 GMT -5
Here's the bottom line...the Giants' biggest offensive deficiency is power. They aren't getting it anywhere, not even from Posey or Pence. They're definitely not getting it from the corner infielders. The question is how do you Belt lovers (Rog) propose to fix that problem, because it is a HUGE problem.
Boagie- 41 doubles, 8 triples and 17 homeruns is not the problem. I propose everyone put up those numbers with a .868 OPS. If that happens, ANY offense problems dissapear.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 6, 2017 15:48:48 GMT -5
There is absolutely NO WAY Belt is a better defender than Clark, and it isn't really close. I got to see both of them in the Cal League and the Big Leagues. Clark's instincts are 1000 times better. He NEVER got out of position and his short hopping ability was second only to JT in SF history IMO. Belt tends to wander off the bag and loses mental focus way too often.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 7, 2017 10:45:49 GMT -5
Randy is right, IMHO. Will Clark was much more consistent in 'picking' the short hopped throw.
And for me, it's not even close.
Yes, Belt has the far better arm, but as far as glove work and consistent play, only JT Snow was better, again, IMHO.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 7, 2017 14:55:45 GMT -5
Randy- I got to see both of them in the Cal League and the Big Leagues.
Boagie- Could you tell Clark was going to be a major leaguer when you saw him in San Jose?
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2017 20:25:36 GMT -5
100 RBI...at least
Rog -- That's just too narrow a focus. In 2015, Joey Votto drove in just 80 runs (despite 30 home runs). Yet he was #3 in the MVP voting. Votto will likely make the Hall of Fame, yet he has driven in 100 runs only twice, and not at all since 2011. Clearly our focus is too narrow here.
We should be looking at the total player, not simply one facet. By the way, isn't it ironic that after all the grief you give stats guys, the criterion you use to judge Brandon's improvement in a ... stat?
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Post by Rog on Mar 7, 2017 20:45:00 GMT -5
I don't think he's a top 10 first baseman, and you think he should be BECAUSE of reasons I've clearly stated. 1-Mental blunders that occur more frequently to him than other 1B this side of Marv Throneberry 2-He's not hit anywhere near the number of HRs of what he's capable of, and for an RBI guy, though he's improved, he's still way behind in the learning curve. 3-That massive, fall from grace in the 2nd half of last year. Rog -- First of all, I can see not thinking he is a top 10 first baseman. After the first six or so, there are another half dozen or more who are pretty darn close. I think he's top 10, but barely -- and in great part because of his excellent fielding. But not thinking he is in the top 10 is a lot different from saying the Giants need to get rid of him. As for the specifics, I think you're being TOO specific. Fielding blunders? You bet. But after taking those fielding blunders into account, he's still one of the best-fielding first basemen in the game. Base running gaffes? Right on. But even after taking those into account, he's still close to being an average base runner overall and appears to be average or above for first basemen, who aren't known for their base running. Now, RBI's. Not a great strength IMO, although not a horrible weakness either. He had more RBI's last season than Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, George Springer, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Travis Shaw, Giancarlo Stanton, Jayson Werth, Klay Calhoun, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter and Joc Pederson. Those are some darn good hitters, and many of them have been All-Stars. Brandon was above-average in driving in runs last season. As for his second-half collapse, your last criticism of him was for not driving in runs -- yet he had by far the most RBI's of any Giant in the second half. The two criticisms are non-congruent. You guys are picking nits and ignoring the nuts of the situation. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4ah3rbbzC |
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 2:17:40 GMT -5
Here's the bottom line...the Giants' biggest offensive deficiency is power. They aren't getting it anywhere, not even from Posey or Pence. They're definitely not getting it from the corner infielders. The question is how do you Belt lovers (Rog) propose to fix that problem, because it is a HUGE problem. Rog -- No question the problem is a big one. Probably doesn't make sense to blame it on the guy who led the team in homers last season though. As for how to fix it, the Giants haven't taken steps in that direction. Their offense has been one of keeping the line moving (getting on base). That is in fitting with their home park, which is one that depresses home runs more than Coors Field promotes them. In other words, in order to be an average team in home runs, the Giants would need to be a good to very good home run team. Instead, they finished 28th out of 30 teams. That said, they were quite a bit higher in runs scored because they finished seventh in their main thrust -- on-base percentage. While they were near the bottom of the league in home runs, they were second in triples (also a factor of the park) and 11th in doubles. You ask how to fix the home run problem. I have some ideas, but they cost money. The Giants will be relying on Jarrett Parker for power, and when he hits the ball, he does hit it hard. Surprisingly though, he turned into a ground ball hitter last season and over his career now has hit essentially one out of every two balls on the ground. More than one out of every fly balls he has hit has turned into a home run, and that just won't continue. So Parker probably isn't the answer, at least unless he can start hitting more balls in the air. We wanted the Giants to build their team around speed, pitching and defense, which is what their park is modeled for. They now have the pitching and defense, and for speed they did add the leading base stealer in the American League. Could they use more power? Absolutely. But if they keep getting on base, they can help minimize their issues with not being the electric company. The Giants likely don't have to be an offensive juggernaut. If they can score an above-average number of runs, their pitching and defense just might carry the day. But if we want to blame a lack of home runs, why are we criticizing the guy who led the team in homers, total bases, extra bases, extra base hits and slugging percentage? Apparently it's because we're striking out more than Jarrett Parker. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4ah8ghczg |
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 2:20:49 GMT -5
There is absolutely NO WAY Belt is a better defender than Clark, and it isn't really close. Rog -- This is a foolish statement. Whether Belt or Clark is better is a matter for discussion, but to say it isn't really close shows someone either wasn't paying close attention, doesn't get it, or is prejudiced. Brandon Belt is considered by most to be a top five defensive first baseman (at worst), so by definition it must be close. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4aiUIJ2tp |
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 2:23:49 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 2:42:31 GMT -5
The question is how do you Belt lovers (Rog) propose to fix that problem, because it is a HUGE problem. Rog -- Here is one answer to your question: Find more Brandon Belts -- although with AT&T with the Giants' home park, it would be nice if they hit right-handed. AT&T is a tough power park for right-handed hitters, but it's a killer for lefty hitters not named Bonds. Since Barry retired, the Giants have ranked #30, #29, #10, #22, #30, #29, #17, #26 and #28 in home runs. Part of that has been the park; some has been the type of hitters. But they did win one World Championship while finishing last in home runs, and another while finishing 17th. In their three World Championship seasons, the Giants finished an average of 19th in home runs. The Giants no big-time power hitters, but the three best they have are Belt, Pence and Posey. Since he entered the big leagues no Giants player aside from Buster Posey has hit more homers than Belt. No left-handed hitter has come close to Brandon. The Giants have shown they can win it all without power, but if it is power the Giants are looking for, they certainly shouldn't be getting rid of Brandon. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4aiVr2nP5 |
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 2:43:57 GMT -5
Clark's instincts are 1000 times better.
Rog -- That statement is ridiculous even for you.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2017 4:54:26 GMT -5
100 RBI...at least
Rog -- That's just too narrow a focus. In 2015, Joey Votto drove in just 80 runs (despite 30 home runs). Yet he was #3 in the MVP voting. Votto will likely make the Hall of Fame, yet he has driven in 100 runs only twice, and not at all since 2011. Clearly our focus is too narrow here.
We should be looking at the total player, not simply one facet. By the way, isn't it ironic that after all the grief you give stats guys, the criterion you use to judge Brandon's improvement in a ... stat?
Dood - it's a REAL stat, not a phony uber metric lame ass one. RBI is a true measure of productivity. It has been for over a century. I didn't say Belt has to eclipse the 100 ribbie mark every year for a decade...just show me he can do it once, then I'll say he's a top 10 first sacker.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2017 5:00:53 GMT -5
Randy- I got to see both of them in the Cal League and the Big Leagues.
Boagie- Could you tell Clark was going to be a major leaguer when you saw him in San Jose?
Dood - It was clear from the get go that Clark, on top of his incredible talent, had something Belt has never shown...a burning desire to be the very best he can and the willingness to work his ass off every day to get there. Belt is content to just be average and never come close to his potential. He's comfortable where he is, and that also makes me ill. Clark had a razor sharp focus at all times. He was destined to be great...Belt could have been just as good or better if he had the desire to put in the effort.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 8, 2017 10:49:39 GMT -5
That is one GREAT point, Randy.
That burning, all consuming desire to be THE best.
Also, Clark spent VERY little time in the minors as I recall. Pretty sure it was just one year.
And when he hit the major league field, it was obvious to everyone he belonged and had the talent to not just stick, but to excell.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 12:01:32 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2017 12:09:21 GMT -5
I didn't...but his teammates have testified to it many times
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 8, 2017 13:32:43 GMT -5
I've heard the same, Randy.
But it could also be seen in the way he conducted himself on the field.
he was WIRED all the time.
Something I've never seen in Belt.
Not saying he isn't wired as Will was... but you can't "see" it the way you could with Will
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 8, 2017 14:42:51 GMT -5
Just a few points I like to make..
1. Clark was never in San Jose. The Giants didn't get a team in San Jose until 1988. Before that their A team was in Fresno. Clark didn't stay long in the minors, and I doubt anyone traveled to Fresno and got enough looks at Clark to gather a strong opinion on his instincts.
2. Clark was a first round pick, second overall. Belt was a 5th rounder. Big difference. Clark was a franchise player, Belt is a nice surprise. The negative opinion of Belt now is due to over-hyping Belt initially, in my opinion.
3. Clark did have great instincts whether he was at the plate, on the base paths or in the field. Belt lacks in instincts compared to Clark, but so does about 99% of players to ever take the field.
4. Despite the instincts, Belt still has better range, a better arm and can dig out balls better. Never have I seen a first baseman have better footwork around the bag than Belt, much better than Clark. If you can't admit that, in my opinion you either don't know what you're looking at or Clark was too long ago for you to have a good recollection of his defense. Clark was good, not great, Belt is great.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 8, 2017 15:47:17 GMT -5
Boagie is right about the Giants not having a team in San Jose when Clark was a prospect. However Fresno did come to play a double header in San Jose the season Clark played for Fresno. I think he had 5 or six hits in the two games with a homer and lots of RBI. His legend began then, I contend. Maybe I didn't know what kind of career he'd have but it was easy to see this was a guy with supreme confidence and unmatched competitiveness. I realize Belt was a lower draft pick but his minor league numbers were better than Clark's so I believe the raised expectations were somewhat justified. Also, now that he's got himself a long term contract, expectations should be for much better productions than he provides.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 8, 2017 15:48:38 GMT -5
Boagie: Everything you state, I agree with, except for on.
My observation of their ability to dig out balls is different than yours.
I've seen too many "picks" that Belt simply could have, but didn't make.
But overall, especially your points about where the players were picked and thus the expectations, I think is right on the money.
Especially the over hyping of Brandong.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 8, 2017 18:32:18 GMT -5
I've seen too many "picks" that Belt simply could have, but didn't make.
Boagie- Those non-picks would have resulted in our other infielders getting charged with throwing errors. This is where numbers would be beneficial to this conversation. As far as I see the amount of errors in the whole infield since Belt's arrival, and especially recently has been minimal. Maybe Rog could find out how many throwing errors have been charged to our infielders, and how many of those were reasonably "pickable" by Belt.
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 22:35:43 GMT -5
oagie- 41 doubles, 8 triples and 17 homeruns is not the problem. I propose everyone put up those numbers with a .868 OPS. If that happens, ANY offense problems disappear. Rog -- Well put, Boagie. When trying to fix a problem, it usually isn't wise to get rid of the players who do it best. Those few who want to get rid of Belt don't point to poor performance; rather, they point to a limited number of mistakes which naturally detract from his performance, but which don't prevent that performance from being good to very good. We're barking up the wrong tree. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars#ixzz4anPYVHXL |
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