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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 22:59:09 GMT -5
It was clear from the get go that Clark, on top of his incredible talent, had something Belt has never shown...a burning desire to be the very best he can and the willingness to work his ass off every day to get there. Rog -- I'm curious as to what work you saw Will doing, Randy. Randy -- I didn't...but his teammates have testified to it many times Rog -- My point though is that you saw Will play, and you say it was obvious from the beginning, so you must have seen it, right? Couldn't have missed it if it was obvious from the beginning. By the way, I never saw Will play for Fresno, but my dad gave me a scouting report after having done so himself. My dad was also impressed by Mackey Sasser, who made the bigs as a catcher but wound up with a mental throwing disorder which kept him from consistently throwing the ball accurately to the pitcher. I haven't seen as many games in San Jose as Randy, and I'm not sure I've seen a one since April 10, 2009 (the first time Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey hooked up in a regular season game), but I remember the first time I went there, which was during the strike season. I remember thinking that virtually every single position player for the Little Giants looked like he would be able to play in the big leagues -- and ultimately all or all but one did so. One of the great things about minor league ball is that a fan can sit in almost any location he wants to. I loved to sit right behind the plate so I could see the pitcher's stuff. I remember sitting right behind the plate, right in front or next to the radar guy, and learning that high prospect Tim Alderson was throwing only in the high 80's and in fact didn't exceed 91 on any pitch he made in the home season. I mentioned that here, and sure enough within a year the Giants traded Alderson for Freddy Sanchez. As we know, Freddy's career was injury-shortened, but poor Alderson never made it to the big leagues at all. I was blessed to see Tim Lincecum pitch four times for San Jose, and also once at Stockton. The following season I got to see all four of his starts at Fresno. Especially at Fresno (AAA by then, of course), Tim was amazing. In over 30 innings, he yielded only one earned run. On the mound he looked like a kid playing with men, but when he threw the ball, it was clear he was the man playing among boys. Scouting Tim wasn't exactly hard. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4anRrYa00 Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=1#ixzz4anRVKg21
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 23:44:06 GMT -5
Fresno did come to play a double header in San Jose the season Clark played for Fresno. I think he had 5 or six hits in the two games with a homer and lots of RBI. His legend began then, I contend. Rog -- Will's legend had already begun before that. It likely began when he was in college at Mississippi State and put up OPS of 1.069, 1.348 and 1.392 there. In other words, he was the Barry Bonds of college ball. If it didn't begin there, it certainly began when he homered in his first minor league at bat, a feat he would repeat less than a year later against Nolan Ryan in his first major league at bat. Boagie mentioned some comparisons between Clark and Belt, and I'd like to elaborate. First let me ask a question: Did Will Clark LOOK like he worked harder than Brandon Crawford. You bet he did. But looks can be deceiving. Remember how we once questioned Johnny Cueto's body language? So let's look at some facts we know: . As Boagie mentioned and you no doubt saw the first time you watched him, Randy, Will was something of a natural, possessing one of the sweetest swings around. Belt was only a fifth-round draft pick who may have had to work as hard or harder than Will. . Will was such a great hitter (as his college stats above indicate) that he was drafted only after B.J. Surhoff, who wasn't as good a hitter as Will, but who was drafted first overall because he was a very good hitter and also a CATCHER. . Will was drafted two spots ahead of Barry Larkin and four spots above Barry Bonds. He was picked 20 players ahead of his college teammate Rafael Palmeiro. Larkin made the Hall of Fame, and both Bonds and Palmeiro would have made it if they put up the same stats without steroids. Will had an excellent career -- but not a Hall of Fame career. . Belt was a very good hitter in college, but nowhere near as good as Will. As an example, we criticize Belt for his lack of power, but he homered only 23 times to Will's 61 times in college. Will hit more homers in the majors too, although not by anywhere near the margin he did while in college. Will also enjoyed a much easier home park for hitting home runs, but his frequency of homers is surprisingly slim over the park-challenged Belt. Will homered once every 25.3 at bats, while Brandon isn't horribly far behind -- and given their home parks, one could argue even less behind -- with a homer every 29.4 at bats. . Brandon has been said here to be too stubborn to make adjustments, but the fact is that he made adjustments while in the minor leagues which enabled him to put up better numbers at San Jose, Richmond and Fresno than he had averaged in college. As good a hitter as Clark was, he never equaled his college stats in any full season. Belt then made a significant hand adjustment while in the major leagues. Brandon has made two significant hitting adjustments (and let's not forget that he's going to left field a lot more often than he did in 2014) while in organized ball, whereas I doubt Will needed to make any. . Amazingly -- especially give their home parks -- Brandon has hit for more bases per hit than Will. Will averaged 1.64 bases per hit, while Brandon has averaged 1.69. One could argue that Brandon has overcome his difficult home park to show even more power than Will. When the park differences are taken into consideration, it is hard to argue that WILL was the more powerful. What we wind up with is much stronger body language from Will, but a real possibility that Brandon made bigger adjustments. Rather than being too stubborn to make adjustments, Brandon has done so on two clear occasions as a pro player. That's two more adjustments than we know about from Will. Did Will have better "makeup" than Brandon? If my life were on the line, I would guess yes. But it would be only a guess. There are a lot of facts that indicate it might actually be Brandon. The facts we know simply don't justify trading Brandon. As Boagie pointed out, the Giants need MORE hitters like Brandon, not fewer. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=2#ixzz4anXVJLB8
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Post by Rog on Mar 8, 2017 23:48:32 GMT -5
The negative opinion of Belt now is due to over-hyping Belt initially, in my opinion. Rog -- I still believe that the biggest difference between Randy and me regarding Brandon is that after Brandon's slow major league start, I adjusted my expectations for him -- and he has lived up to the reduced anticipations for level of play. Randy never adjusted his expectations and instead has pretty much given up on Brandon, just as he's given up on the Giants a couple of times, including 2014 when they went on to win the World Series. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=2#ixzz4aniLso8n
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 9, 2017 13:01:51 GMT -5
Totally agree with your statement, Rog. He was OVER hyped.
He's not, and never was, a "Will Clark," but at this point, for me to hop on board the "Belt train," I MUST see less mental naps, and more of what I saw in the first half last year.
He accomplishes that, and I'm okay with him.
If...
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 9, 2017 14:28:13 GMT -5
If he accomplishes that he'll be better than Clark.
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Post by Rog on Mar 9, 2017 16:00:35 GMT -5
Belt in the first half of last season WAS better than the average Will Clark performance. But a season is made up of peaks and valleys, and for whatever reason, the Giants overachieved in the first half and underachieved in the second half. Not just some players, but a high percentage of them.
One could easily argue that Belt was the Giants' best position player in the first half, when he posted a marvelous .928 OPS. But he was probably the best in the second half too, when he posted a .792 OPS and was second on the team in RBI's.
Here are the OPS and RBI's of the Giants' offensive players in the second half:
Belt .792 and 35 RBI's
Posey .740 and 38 RBI's
Pence .762 and 21 RBI's
Pagan .748 and 25 RBI's
Crawford .739 and 23 RBI's
Joe Panik .648 and 26 RBI's
Eduardo Nunez .744 and 20 RBI's
Denard Span .765 and 23 RBI's
Among Giants position players, I would say Brandon was the best in the first half with Buster Posey #2 and Brandon Crawford #3, while Buster had the best the second half, with Belt #2 and Crawford #3. I think Span was pretty good in the second half too, and Pagan had a decent overall season when healthy. Pence too was good when healthy. Only Joe Panik was truly lousy the second half, and he bounced back in the postseason.
A good, healthy season from Hunter and Joe would be two big steps this year. I see no reason Pence can't come through, and I'm expecting a good season from Panik.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 9, 2017 21:09:34 GMT -5
In order to be anywhere NEAR as good as Clark, Belt first needs to grow some gonads and WANT to be as good as he can be. I see absolutely NO desire and heart in Brandon. If that doesn't change, he'll never get anywhere close
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Post by Rog on Mar 9, 2017 23:41:38 GMT -5
In order to be anywhere NEAR as good as Clark, Belt first needs to grow some gonads and WANT to be as good as he can be. I see absolutely NO desire and heart in Brandon. If that doesn't change, he'll never get anywhere close Rog -- It doesn't matter what you see, but unless Brandon suddenly becomes what we thought he might be when he first came up, he isn't going to have a better career than Will Clark, whose career wasn't all that far off a Hall of Fame level. What Brandon has done thus far is put up a very creditable career, one that many consider puts him among the top 10 first baseman in all of the Giants' history. I was hoping Brandon would be excellent, but we'll have to settle for good to very good. A couple of things to remember. Not excuses, simply facts. . Because of the injury to Cody Ross, the Giants brought Brandon up sooner than they wanted to, which almost certainly affected his rookie season if not more of his career. . Brandon has suffered a lot of injuries, including a concussion. He suffered the concussion when two players simultaneously threw balls to him in pre-game practice. All things considered, a nice career to date. Not what we had originally hoped for, but good to very good nonetheless. If we want to trade him because of mental lapses and other issues that have hurt his play slightly but still left him a good to very good player, there is little that can be said to dissuade us. It would be kind of like judging our total income by how much bank interest we earned. If we want to trade him because he's "not our kind of player," that is understandable and subject only to how reasonable it is to trade a player because "he's not our kind of player." If the Giants wish to trade him, they will find plenty of takers. His level of play is good to very good, and his contract is team-friendly. When the Giants decide to move Buster Posey to first base, one would assume they would trade Brandon. If that doesn't happen in the next five years, his contract will be up anyway. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=2#ixzz4atUty6d3
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 10, 2017 3:51:16 GMT -5
Randy- In order to be anywhere NEAR as good as Clark, Belt first needs to grow some gonads and WANT to be as good as he can be. I see absolutely NO desire and heart in Brandon. If that doesn't change, he'll never get anywhere close
Boagie- It's amazing to me how you can see into Brandon's soul, but fail to recognize Pablo's lack of conditioning and desire to be better through his destructive eating habits.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 10, 2017 11:51:15 GMT -5
I was disappointed as any to see Pablo's decline in the latter part of his time in SF, but the fact is he declined from a much higher point than Belt has yet to reach. When Brandon hits over 300 in a full season--much less twice, like Pablo--then we can begin to compare his heart to Pablo's.
Remember...Pablo has always been big, even when he was hitting 330.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 10, 2017 15:09:44 GMT -5
Randy- Remember...Pablo has always been big, even when he was hitting 330.
Boagie- Good point, Randy, he has always been big. But he hasn't always been 22 years old. Which is why the Giants wanted him to lose a reasonable amount of weight and keep it off. He chose to eat instead.
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Post by Rog on Mar 11, 2017 10:55:55 GMT -5
It's amazing to me how you can see into Brandon's soul, but fail to recognize Pablo's lack of conditioning and desire to be better through his destructive eating habits. Rog -- Clearly Randy can't see into souls. He effectively admitted he couldn't see into Gary Brown's. And he couldn't see into Pablo's play. Randy said Pablo was going downhill but from a higher level, and he is right. But after that fabulous first full season, his OPS fell to .732, bounced back to .909, but then consistently fell to .789, .758 and .739. Randy completely missed that Pablo had become a platoon player. He wanted -- no, he was insistent -- the Giants to pay Pablo $100 million or more. Randy couldn't see Pablo or Gary Brown any better than he can see Brandon Belt. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=2#ixzz4b26q4hT9
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Post by Rog on Mar 11, 2017 11:07:09 GMT -5
I was disappointed as any to see Pablo's decline in the latter part of his time in SF, but the fact is he declined from a much higher point than Belt has yet to reach. When Brandon hits over 300 in a full season--much less twice, like Pablo--then we can begin to compare his heart to Pablo's. Remember...Pablo has always been big, even when he was hitting 330. Rog -- First, you didn't even attempt to answer Boagie's primary question, which was how you are able to see into Brandon Belt's soul while figuratively ignoring Pablo's weight gain. "Grow some," and answer the questions asked you here instead of clearly dancing around them. As for Pablo's decline, you are right on the money that he declined from a higher level than Brandon has ever reached. (offensively). Which kind of brings home Boagie's point that you question Brandon's soul which you can't see while making excuses for Pablo's soul, which you can't literally see because it has a lot more fat disguising it. His first year-plus in the league, Pablo played at a Hall of Fame level. .330 with a .943 OPS in his first full season. That's a lot better than Willie Mays hit as a rookie; more like Willie McCovey when McCovey won the 1959 NL Rookie of the Year despite playing only the last 52 games of the season. But in 2010 Pablo played so poorly that he rarely started in the postseason in which the Giants won their first World Series in San Francisco. He had only one more really good season after that. 2011 was another extremely good season, but his OPS fell from .909 that season to .789, .758, and .739 immediately before you wanted the Giants to pay him $100 million or more. I would ask you how -- similar to Denard Span, but worse -- he could hit southpaws so well early in his career only to fall off to a minor league level against them as his career progressed. I will say this though: You showed the same kind of vision regarding Pablo as you're showing with Brandon -- except in reverse. You talk about someone's not being able to get it and that they never will when you yourself actually gave up on the 2014 Giants -- only to see them go on to win the World Series. You were as blind on that one as you were with Pablo. Actually, even more blind, which is tough to imagine. Now you are able to see into Brandon Belt's soul when you clearly couldn't see into Gary Brown's. You now accuse Brown of having similar deficiencies as you accuse Belt of, yet clearly you weren't able to see into Gary's soul when you watched him play. I have come to realize that your ridiculous writing of foolish things along with your picture here (at least you put your shirt back on) is a cover up for your own shortcomings. You act tough, but skate around the difficult stuff. Your answers are terse and offensive, apparently in a failed attempt to disguise your lack of depth with which to address the hard issues. Back to Pablo. Only once in his career did he drive in more runs than the 82 Brandon drove in last season. Like Brandon, he has never reached 100, although unlike Brandon he did reach an even 90 in his first full season. In Pablo's remaining five seasons he averaged an even 70 RBI's. In the only three seasons in which Brandon got 500 at bats, he has averaged 72. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3760/time-end-belt-wars?page=2#ixzz4b1lyjRAU
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Post by Rog on Mar 12, 2017 9:52:50 GMT -5
Randy --
Please accept my full and complete apology. I was totally out of line and out of hand yesterday. There was no excuse for my actions, and I hope you can find it in your heart to forgive me. I'm sure we'll disagree again, but I will try to do so much more in a spirit of love and kindness.
Again, please accept my apology for being stupid and rude to you.
Sincerely,
Roger
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 12, 2017 12:02:04 GMT -5
It's ok, Rog. You've said worse things about me. I kind of assumed that's how you felt anyway. It would take a lot more to get me riled when I'm just a day away from getting on a plane to Arizona. When I'm not at games, sitting by the pool or engaging in other fun vacation stuff, I'll do some posting.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 12, 2017 12:48:38 GMT -5
Rog, as the leader of the board I have to say I appreciate the apology, because I felt you got way too personal with your attacks. Let's try to keep it civil in the future.
Randy, you do tend to be rather flippant with your responses, let's try to remember we're all rooting for the same team. Have a great time in Arizona.
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Post by Rog on Mar 12, 2017 22:36:59 GMT -5
Thanks for your forgiveness, Randy. I hope you have a wonderful time in Arizona. I look forward to the "inside scoop." We're all jealous!
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