More than just a pain in the neck

[sfgdood]

Angel Pagan has now missed two straight days with back pain. This is a lot different than the neck stiffness he experienced early on in camp. This is what he had surgery on. This back issue is not going away. I like Angel but it's no better than a crapshoot now as to whether he will be able to play a significant number of games for us ever again. Aoki, Blanco and Perez/Ishikawa is our opening day outfield. NL pitchers wont be quaking in their boots.

[Rog]

I think Giants fans overrate Angel slightly. Despite what some think, the Giants have shown they can win without Angel (and lose with him).

But if he isn't healthy for a lot of games this summer, the Giants will need to get a guy at the trade deadline or something to make up for that.

I mentioned that I recently came up with some concerns about Aoki's bat, and while I like Blanco a lot better than Boly, Gregor is definitely more glove than bat. If the Giants have to go with Perez, Ishikawa, Maxwell or Brown though, it's tough to field the type of lineup they'd like.

It's bad enough with Pence out. Also taking Pagan from the lineup would make it a bit woeful.

[Rog]

You mentioned that without Pagan, the Giants' lineup wouldn't make NL pitchers quake, Randy. Without Pagan, the lineup wouldn't make even certain residents of Pennsylvania quake.

[klaiggeb]

With Aoki to lead off, Pagan's loss in THAT aspect, isn't a big problem.

The REAL problem occurs with Pence out AND Pagan out.

Now, we're down 2 starting outfielders, and puts Blanco into the starting lineup.

Not good.


Randy called this one, and I echoed his concern long back. Back problems... often never really go away.

We'll see.

boly

[Rog]

Hunter Pence's injury withstanding, at least the Giants have only one injury-prone outfielder this season (Pagan) instead of two as last year (Pagan and Morse).

Both seasons the Giants have been short on outfield depth (at least to this point). No doubt the Giants are looking.

A couple of minor league notes:

. The Giants purchased catcher Jackson Williams back from the Angels.

. The Giants sent closer Derek Law down to San Jose rather than Richmond. Law could well wind up the season at least as high as Sacramento, but I was surprised he was sent to the lower level. He is coming back from Tommy John surgery after gaining attention at San Jose in 2013 with 45 strikeouts and only one walk in 26 innings.

For those such as I who aren't familiar with the new math, that's a 45.00 K/BB ratio. Or how about this: In his 26 innings, Law struck out 24 more than base runners allowed. That's nearly one per inning and is almost unfathomable.

[rxmeister]

Law's value has gone up even higher this spring because all their prospects have performed so terribly. I expect a quick rise once healthy and a Strickland type call up in September, unless he's also one of those disappointing prospects.

[Islandboagie]

Okert has performed well so far. But with Kontos, Machi and Cordier out of options, the battle for the final spot is amongst them.

[sfgdood]

Cody Hall has looked good too. He was lights out a couple years ago in SJ (hitter friendly league). He might be in the mix too thanks to Strickland's 10 cent head.

[Rog]

Boagie is almost certainly right that that last bullpen spot is between the three relievers without options. The Giants will likely try to trade the two who don't make it.

The relievers with options are more likely to enter the mix as injuries and other factors open up spots.

[Islandboagie]

Anyone see the play McGehee made on Billy Hamilton's bunt? Say what you will about a downgrade at 3rd base with the loss of Pablo, but Pablo would never have made that play, even in his best shape.

[sfgdood]

If Pablo was playing in as far as McGehee was, he could have made that play, as could most 3rd basemen worth their salt. Give Ron Wotus credit for positioning Casey, as well as the umpire for missing the fact that Belt's foot came off the bag. It was a very nice play but to say Pablo could never make it is over-egging the McGehee pudding or going off the deep end on Pablo hate.

[Islandboagie]

In my opinion, Pablo had great hands, but poor feet. He didn't have much range coming in on bunts or slow rollers, or ranging into the hole. What Pablo was good at was making the out if he got to the ball. He very rarely let the ball play him, and rarely made poor throws. He was also good at taking throws and applying tags. Do you recall him ranging far in the hole? Pablo's range consisted of one or two steps then a dive, or it was Crawford's ball, or a hit. This is not Pablo hate, it's just how I saw it.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie, I think your observations are right on, and I would add one more; throwing. You could count on Pablo to be accurate and NOT screw up a routine throw 99% of the time.

That may seem mundane, but according to Brooks Robinson, it is not. He claimed the routine plays, where you had time, often resulted in the most errors.

Not from him, but from players in general. He claimed they "had too much time to think about the throw," and thus, "aimed" the ball.

And I agree.

Pablo had very soft hands, and rarely screwed up the routine play.

But his range was just, okay.

He was also NOT very good at coming in and barehanding the ball. I recall a large number of plays like that where, as the article today mentioned, the either mis handeled, or dropped the ball altogether.

As a Pitcher, his defense was good enough for me. My requirement; make the routine plays, darned near ALL of the time.

boly

[rxmeister]

Thanks for mentioning Okert, Boagie. I was going to edit my post to say he was the one exception, but I didn't get a chance. Cody Hall has already been sent out, so he's not going to be there. As for Pablo, we all know that in the field there are two of them. The fat Pablo and the decent shape Pablo. The Pablo we had last year made all the plays, while we know from past experience that the Pablo who has appeared to show up in Boston will only be able to handle balls directly hit to him. It's so weird that the Red Sox signed Pablo and Hanley Ramirez to big FA deals over the season, and one couldn't have cared less about his conditioning and the other showed up in the best shape of his life. You wouldn't have expected Hanley to come into spring training so strong after getting a big deal based on his past reputation. I give him lots of credit.

[Rog]

Boagie -- Anyone see the play McGehee made on Billy Hamilton's bunt? Say what you will about a downgrade at 3rd base with the loss of Pablo, but Pablo would never have made that play, even in his best shape.

Rog -- Fabulous play by McGehee on arguably the fastest runner in baseball history. Pablo isn't as good coming in on a ball as he is moving laterally, but he might possibly have made the play. I agree with you that it was certainly more likely than not that he WOULDN'T have been able to gun down Hamilton.

On the other hand, thoughts flashed through my mind on the game-opening double against Tim Lincecum yesterday that Pablo just might have gotten his glove on that ball. Depending no his weight, Pablo may remain an above-average third baseman, while Casey is below-average.

As you point out though, he certainly isn't chopped liver at the position.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck#ixzz3V8LoAjdY

[Rog]

Randy -- If Pablo was playing in as far as McGehee was, he could have made that play, as could most 3rd basemen worth their salt.

Rog -- Pablo might indeed have made that play, although it was a good one for anyone, and my guess is that Pablo would have had less than a 50% shot at it.

Randy -- Give Ron Wotus credit for positioning Casey, as well as the umpire for missing the fact that Belt's foot came off the bag.

Rog -- Wotus is indeed a master positioner. And some of the Giants seem to be occasionally taking it to the next level. Juan Perez's play against Nori Aoki in the World Series came as a result of Perez's own long memory, and Gregor Blanco's all-time catch to preserve Matt Cain's perfect game came from his careful remembrance of the scouting report.

As for Belt's foot coming off the bag, I don't even look all that closely anymore. Many, many times I have thought he took his foot off early, only to see on replay that he timed it just about perfectly. I've never seen a first baseman come off the bag so quickly, and sooner or later Brandon is going to get called off the bag sometime even though he wasn't.

Randy -- It was a very nice play but to say Pablo could never make it is over-egging the McGehee pudding or going off the deep end on Pablo hate.

Rog -- I hadn't heard the term "over-egging the pudding," but it's an intriguing one. I'm not familiar enough with cooking to evaluate it, but it has a nice ring.

As for this Pablo hate, where in the world is that coming from? I don't think there is anyone on this board who even dislikes Pablo, let alone hates him. I think most would rate him the 2nd-best third baseman in Giants' history, although an argument could also be made for Jim Ray Hart. I myself would choose Pablo because he is the much better fielder.

Speaking of gloves, some might argue for Jim Davenport because of his excellent leather. I think Pablo wins that comparison because he was a far better fielder.

Put Hart's bat with Davenport's glove, and one might have a true challenger to Matt Williams. Surprisingly, Jimmy Ray was likely the better hitter, and Davvy was pretty much Matt's equal with the glove.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=1#ixzz3V8MxaYPs

[Rog]

Boagie -- In my opinion, Pablo had great hands, but poor feet.

Rog -- Maybe we're saying the same thing here, but I felt Pablo had fine feet as well as hands, but had poor legs that limited his range. When he wasn't overweight, I thought his hands and feet more often than not overcame the poor legs.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=1#ixzz3V8Yp2pI8

[Rog]

Pablo has the strongest right throwing arm of any southpaw I have ever seen.

[Rog]

Accurate too. I believe his career caught stealing percentage in the minors was over 40%. It's a shame Pablo couldn't continue catching. Think of his being the primary third baseman and backup catcher and Buster sharing the role in the opposite manner.

When Brandon Belt was healthy, and throw in Joaquin Arias at the other backup at the corners, and the Giants would have been extremely deep at all three positions -- plus been able to have an added man on the bench.

In that situation, I would have felt Pablo was worth his $95 million contract.

Pablo is a very good player. If he had taken better care of himself, I believe he could have been an all-time great, or at least close to it. He certainly played at that level his first season plus and two of his first three full seasons.

[Rog]

Just came across this from Andrew Baggarly. It's beginning to look as if we're being pretty much on target with our threads. First the article on whether Gregor Blanco is a good 4th outfielder and now this comparison of the fielding of Pablo and McGehee:


McGehee and Sandoval … a defensive push at third base?
Posted: 20 Mar 2015 10:19 PM PDT
Tim Hudson has spent his baseball life sowing his sinker and growing ground balls. It’s been a rich career. But he still has to rely on infielders to pull in the harvest. Casey McGehee didn’t let him down Friday night. McGehee is having a solid first spring with the Giants, both at the plate (.429 average) and in the field. His best work thus far came in the third inning, when he charged a chopper for one out. Then, a moment later, he barehanded a bunt from Billy Hamilton and fired an off-balance throw to retire the speedy Reds leadoff man. “I haven’t played with many guys who are able to make that play against a runner like that,” Hudson said. This might be a good time to remind you that Hudson played with a six-time Gold Glove winner, Eric Chavez, in Oakland. And also a future Hall of Famer, Chipper Jones, in Atlanta. Hudson’s third baseman last season, of course, was Pablo Sandoval, and for the most part, the Panda’s defense at the hot corner was above average. Sandoval had a bit better range and first-step quickness last year – certainly better than the times when he was obviously out of shape. But if memory serves, Sandoval wasn’t so adept at the barehand play. Seems he dropped an awful lot of them. I’m not so confident he makes the play on Hamilton. Entering this spring, based on everything I heard about McGehee’s glovework from scouts who saw him often, I expected the Giants would take a net loss defensively at third base this season. But McGehee really has looked solid thus far. It might be time to raise those expectations a little bit. “He’s been good,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. “Comes in on the ball well, right or left, accurate thrower. He’s had a good spring from both sides.” Defensive metrics favor Sandoval over McGehee, and it’s not an especially tight race. Sandoval had an ultimate zone rating of 3.5 last year, to minus-1.6 for McGehee. Sandoval’s defensive WAR of 0.8 ranked 10th among third basemen; McGehee ranked 17th, with minus-0.1. For what it’s worth, McGehee led NL third basemen with a .979 fielding percentage (and double plays turned, with 34). No surprise, then, to discover that according to Inside Edge, McGehee was the second most reliable third baseman in the majors (behind Seattle’s Kyle Seager) on routine plays that are made 90-plus percent of the time. McGehee converted outs on 98.2 percent of those, while Sandoval was 10th at 96.5 percent. Among tougher plays made between 10-40 percent of the time, Sandoval made 15 percent to 7.7 percent for McGehee. The numbers appear to confirm the general scouting observations: McGehee is more reliable, while Sandoval is capable of being a bit more spectacular on occasion. So … is it a push to go from Sandoval’s defense to McGehee’s defense? When asked, Bochy didn’t take issue with the premise of the question. “Pablo had a good year but Casey is solid defensively,” Bochy said. “He’s a heads-up player. You like his anticipation there, and he separates (his at-bats), too, when he goes out there. I’ve seen that watching him from the other side. He works hard at it.” -- Of course, the moment I came upstairs and tweeted Hudson’s quote, McGehee made a fielding error.


As was the case with the Blanco article, the story seems to reach about the same conclusion as we did -- and for many of the same reasons.

My personal feeling is that Pablo is the better fielder of the two when his weight is lower, and no better than even with Casey when his weight is higher. I'm not sure just how heavy Pablo is this spring, but if his weight is in the middle of its range with the Giants, I would take him over Casey's defense in a close race.

Casey seems to be the solid type of defender Boly likes. I lean a little more toward the guys with the bigger range.On a scale of 1-10, Casey may be a 3 to 4 or 5 fielder, while Pablo probably ranged from 2 to 6 or 7 over his career with the Giants.

[sfgdood]

it's not surprising that Giants fans are making such a huge deal over this play since Kruk and Miller pretty much anointed McGehee the greatest defensive third baseman ever to play the position after it happened. They sounded like a teenager getting his rocks off for the first time and then tells his conquest he is in love. I know this much...Casey, 4 years older than Pablo, has never been a gold glove finalist. The fat slob Sandoval has accomplished the feat twice.

[sfgdood]

oh and the pair pretty much made it sound like Ishikawa made a Mays-on-Wertz type play too. It's kind of embarrassing. You would think these guys never saw good defense before.

[Islandboagie]

I don't think anyone is making a big deal about it, If anyone is, you are. You always do when someone other than your favorite players gets their thunder stolen by another player.

You can admit it was a nice play by McGehee AND still appreciate the player Pablo was.

[sfgdood]

Dude makes on good play in spring training and all of a sudden Pablo was a terrible defender with zero range...you said it, not me. Those gold glove finalist years must have been a fluke

[Rog]

Randy -- it's not surprising that Giants fans are making such a huge deal over this play since Kruk and Miller pretty much anointed McGehee the greatest defensive third baseman ever to play the position after it happened

Rog -- I completely missed it when Mike and Miller annointed Casey. Tell us about it, Randy.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck#ixzz3VBYL6Cks

[Rog]

Randy -- oh and the pair pretty much made it sound like Ishikawa made a Mays-on-Wertz type play too. It's kind of embarrassing. You would think these guys never saw good defense before.

Rog -- Missed that one too. Thank goodness we have you around to tell us all about it now, Randy. Apparently we just miss this stuff altogether.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=1#ixzz3VBYq2rI6

[Rog]

Boagie -- You can admit it was a nice play by McGehee AND still appreciate the player Pablo was.

Rog -- Well, the rest of us can, at least.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=1#ixzz3VBZKYtFX

[Islandboagie]

Obviously I didn't say that in my post, Randy. I said Pablo had good hands, an accurate arm but not good range. I think that's fairly accurate. But, you'll never see that because your love affair with Pablo will never allow you to see reality.

I'm not surprised though, this isn't the first time.

You did the same thing last post-season with Morse and Ishikawa. You were disgusted by the attention Ishikawa got for hitting the walk off because of your hardon for Morse. I liked Morse as much as the next guy, but you take it to an unhealthy level. Liking a certain player is fine, but disliking another player because it takes the spotlight off your favorite player is a little weird. I have favorites too, but it doesn't diminish my feeling towards another.

[Rog]

With the exception of anyone who did something immoral, I like every player who has ever played for the Giants.

One thing we should remember here. It is possible to criticize a player and not only like him, but think that he is a good or even very good to excellent player. No player is perfect. And almost every player has something to offer.

I actually think it is GOOD to bring up a player's weaknesses. It shows we're taking an honest and realist look at the player. It's also good to bring up their strong points.

For instance, Ehire Adrianza isn't likely to become a good hitter, but he's a very good fielder and an above-average base runner -- at least as far as I can see. Will he make the Giants as a backup infielder? I think his chances are good, although Matt Duffy is putting on the pressure.

I have expressed my feelings about Gregor Blanco. He too has his strengths and weaknesses.

Player performance varies from year to year, just as health does. That's why it's so hard to predict how a team will do. If we do a good analysis, we can figure out how well a team SHOULD do, but circumstances can easily make them better or worse than that -- and usually do.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- With the exception of anyone who did something immoral, I like every player who has ever played for the Giants.

Boagie- I can name a few Giants I not only didn't like, but hated, and not for a necessarily immoral reason.

I hated Armando Benitez. It wasn't necessarily his monumentally upsetting blown saves, but more his excuses after the game that really made me dislike him. I believe he even once blamed the offense for not scoring more runs.

I hated Carlos Beltran, I've stated those reasons enough here.

Orlando Cabrera. The name in itself just pisses me off. The guy couldn't even catch a weak popup right at him.

Miguel Tejada, probably the only guy who irritates me more than Orlando Cabrera. He had the great trifecta, couldn't hit or field, and he was a selfish sob who didn't think he should be bunting.

I could name more, but it's just putting me in a bad mood.