sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 23, 2015 14:32:54 GMT -5
I said it was a nice play, even though it seemed to me the runner was safe. I just didn't think it was worthy of all the gushing praise given by Kruk, Miller and Boagie. It was a play most ML 3rd basemen worth their pay can make, especially if they have twice been a gold glove finalist.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 23, 2015 17:01:11 GMT -5
Randy- It was a play most ML 3rd basemen worth their pay can make
Boagie- We're in total agreement here, Randy. Unfortunately, your statement excludes Pablo.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 23, 2015 18:38:29 GMT -5
Well we shall see soon about Pablo's current pay...as to his pay prior to this year the Giants got well ABOVE max value for their money. Glad to see you realize now that McGehee's play wasn't nearly as special as you said before. It's funny how some people suddenly think Casey's defense suddenly got WAY better than we have seen from him all these years on the strength of one play in ST
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Post by Rog on Mar 23, 2015 20:43:05 GMT -5
Randy -- as to his pay prior to this year the Giants got well ABOVE max value for their money. Rog -- Well, they didn't get above maximum value, but they did get a nice value. That is true though of almost every player before they hit free agency. If you want to compare value, let's compare Pablo with Jonathan Lucroy, perhaps the best arbitration value in the bigs right now. First year of arbitration: Pablo $3.2 million, 2.1 WAR Lucroy $2.0 million, 6.7 WAR Second year of arbitration: Pablo $5.7 million, 2.7 WAR Lucroy $3.0 million, WAR Third year of arbitration: Pablo $8.25 million, 3.3 WAR Lucroy $4.0 million, WAR First year of free agency: Pablo $17.6 million, WAR Lucroy $5.25 million, WAR Lucroy is a better player than Pablo, particularly if one factors in pitch framing, which would have increased his already excellent 6.7 WAR by another two WAR or so. As I mentioned, Lucroy is probably the best value in baseball right now. Madison Bumgarner is another excellent value. Pablo was a decent value, but nothing special. I'm not trying to criticize Pablo. As I say, he was a decent value. Players have been paid more in arbitration for less. But some have been paid less for more, as well. Lucroy is exception, an even better value than Bumgarner, who himself is one of the best in the majors. Pablo has been fine -- but hardly a huge bargain. With the exception of the use of "max," your statement is right on, Randy. It does, however, ignore the facts of arbitration wages. Remember, players before arbitration are EXCEPTIONAL value. Players in arbitration are still paid much less than would usually be the case in free agency. Free agents are overpaid compared to the average player. So your comment was generally accurate, but I don't think it had the meaning you believed it did. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VGK3p9MZ
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Post by Rog on Mar 23, 2015 20:44:33 GMT -5
Those frowning faces were intended to be I'm not sure what happened, but the frowning faces make it hard to understand. (My stuff is hard ENOUGH to understand without using any tricks!
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Post by Rog on Mar 23, 2015 20:45:34 GMT -5
Well, they're still frowning faces. They're supposed to be triple question marks. I don't see how THIS one can blow up in my face!
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Post by Rog on Mar 23, 2015 20:46:07 GMT -5
Finally!
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 23, 2015 23:23:23 GMT -5
Randy, the only year Pablo was worth anywhere near 20 mil was in 2009.
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Post by Rog on Mar 23, 2015 23:57:20 GMT -5
Pablo was worth close to $20 million in 2011 -- despite playing only 117 games. His defense was highly rated, and he post a 6.1 WAR despite the limited playing time.
I believe that I have posted before that if I thought Pablo would play like 2008, 2009 and 2011, I would pay him quite a bit MORE than 5/$95.
Pablo's performance risk (declining stats the past three seasons) and health/weight risk make it tough to pay him 5/$95 IMO. I like Pablo, and even though he left the Giants, I hope he plays so well that my criticism of his contract looks foolish in retrospect.
But I have to go with what I see when I look as objectively as I can. I like what I see -- but not to the tune of 5/$95. At 5/$75 I'm a go. At 4/$65, I'm probably a go.
At 5/$95, I'm a no. Any higher than that, and I'm probably a moron.
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Post by Rog on Mar 24, 2015 0:01:34 GMT -5
When I say that Pablo hasn't been a huge bargain, I'm talking in the sense of arbitration contracts. If he had been a free agent and played at those dollar amounts, he would have been a steal. A flat-out steal.
By the way, when Pablo put up his 2009 season, he made only a little over $400K. During his 2011 season, he still made only $500K. In his first three full seasons, a player has almost no leverage. The next three (arbitration) he has some. Once he becomes a free agent, he becomes part of a small supply in a high-demand world and usually makes more money than he would if every player became a free agent.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 24, 2015 1:06:08 GMT -5
Rog- Pablo was worth close to $20 million in 2011 -- despite playing only 117 games. His defense was highly rated, and he post a 6.1 WAR despite the limited playing time.
Boagie- When you play an offensive position, you need to produce pretty big to be worth 20 million a season. Pablo had a good OPS in 2011, he just didn't play enough time and produce enough to be worthy of 20 million. Just my thoughts on it.
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Post by Rog on Mar 24, 2015 21:34:39 GMT -5
Rog- Pablo was worth close to $20 million in 2011 -- despite playing only 117 games. His defense was highly rated, and he post a 6.1 WAR despite the limited playing time. Boagie- When you play an offensive position, you need to produce pretty big to be worth 20 million a season. Pablo had a good OPS in 2011, he just didn't play enough time and produce enough to be worthy of 20 million. Just my thoughts on it. Rog -- And you make good points. Pablo was excellent in 2011, so his value was pretty high even though he missed about 30% of the games. I believe 2011 was the first season Pablo had worked very hard in the off-season to take off weight, and he went on to have a very good defensive season to go with his excellent offense. Pablo was so much better in 2011 than he's been in any season since, that I would far rather have his 2011 season than any since -- even though he missed so many games. It's kind of the Troy Tulowitzki dilemma. Troy might be the most valuable player in the game when he plays -- but he averages only about the same 70% of a season as Pablo played in 2011. Personally I'd darn near have 70% of the games with Troy at shortstop than 100% with anyone else. He's long been a better player than Pablo, but the Pablo of 2008, 2009 and 2011 himself played at a Hall of Fame level. The Sandoval of that time frame was FAR better than Hunter Pence is now, and Hunter is worth his $18 million per season. As I have mentioned though, we now longer have that Pablo, and his weight poses an extra risk which makes him unworthy of his contract IMO. Baseball-Reference values a Win Above Replacement at about $7 million, so the Pablo of last season was worth his new contract. But to me, the likelihood of his putting together five seasons that average his being as good as last season don't seem very good. It was his defense last season that helped as much as his hitting, and I don't expect him to be as good with his glove over the next five seasons. Essentially, I expect him to decline both offensively and defensively over the course of his contract. His play last season was barely worth what he'll be making the next five seasons, and if both his offense and defenses decline over that period, clearly he won't be worth the money. That's why I think he received too much and am glad it was from the Red Sox, not the Giants. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VMNM6OT6
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Post by Rog on Mar 24, 2015 21:39:56 GMT -5
Here is the take on Pablo from Tyler's Think Tank:
As expected, the Boston Red Sox had a busy offseason in the wake of 2014’s last place finish. They revamped their lineup, renovated the starting rotation, and made a host of smaller moves to bolster their overall depth. They also went on an enormous spending spree, committing nearly $250 million (not including option years) to three players: Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Yoan Moncada. Was that the best way to spend a quarter billion dollars—more than the entire payroll of every major league team save the Los Angeles Dodgers? Probably not. Let’s start with Sandoval, 28, who fetched a five-year, $95 million deal with a $17 million team option for the sixth year: too much for a lumbering third baseman who plays mediocre defense and hacks at almost every pitch thrown his way. These weaknesses are only becoming more pronounced. Sandoval hasn’t even attempted a stolen base since 2012. His 48.1 percent chase rate—the proportion of pitches outside the strike zone he swung at last year—was easily the highest in baseball. Consequently, his career already appears to be in decline, as his on-base and slugging percentages have fallen every year since 2011. Three straight seasons of sagging production is a worrisome trend that can’t be ignored, especially since thicker players like Sandoval tend to deteriorate more rapidly. He’ll be best suited for first base or designated hitter within a few years, meaning he’s not a long-term solution at third base. Those deficiencies could be excused if Sandoval were an elite power hitter, but he isn’t. His power is surprisingly pedestrian for a man his size, as he has failed to top 16 home runs in four of the last five seasons. The league-average Isolated Power, which gauges raw power by measuring the average number of extra bases a player gets per at-bat, is usually around .140, but Sandoval has been below that in each of the past two seasons. He doesn’t offer the game-changing clout Boston needs to supplement aging sluggers David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, who turn 40 and 34, respectively, this year. The Red Sox desperately needed a third baseman, as Will Middlebrooks proved incompetent and Brock Holt’s unexpected breakout was likely a fluke, but they didn’t need to splurge on Sandoval to upgrade at the hot corner. Chase Headley, a comparable hitter and former Gold Glove winner, re-signed with the Yankees for little more than half of Sandoval’s take. Boston also could have moved shortstop Xander Bogaerts back to third, where he played almost one-third of his games last year.
I would like to see someone come up with better logic than that regarding the Pablo signing.
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Post by Rog on Mar 24, 2015 21:42:12 GMT -5
Here's a take from me.
At the end of the 2011 season I would have given Pablo his present contract had he been a free agent. Now, three years into the deal, I would be slightly regretting having done so. What makes us think that Pablo over the next five seasons will be better than he has been the past three?
Five years from now I strongly believe we'll be glad the Giants didn't sign Pablo.
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Post by Rog on Mar 25, 2015 10:46:06 GMT -5
From ESPN:
while Sandoval was a key part of San Francisco’s offense, his hitting has declined significantly. He went from a .330 average and .943 OPS in 2009 to .268 and .732 in 2010. The Giants won their first World Series that year anyway. Sandoval rebounded to hit .315 with a .909 OPS in 2011 but his OPS has been below .800 since, falling to .739 last year, when the Giants again won the World Series
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 25, 2015 12:16:48 GMT -5
So this thread started as a commentary of Pagan's dodgy back and turns into Rog's personal crusade to convince us what a shitty player Pablo Sandoval is...just wow.
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Post by Rog on Mar 25, 2015 14:20:28 GMT -5
Randy -- So this thread started as a commentary of Pagan's dodgy back and turns into Rog's personal crusade to convince us what a shitty player Pablo Sandoval is...just wow. Rog -- So what are your thoughts on Angel's back, Randy? Hopefully his progress will continue from here. If it does, he should be ready to open the season on time. But Angel has been injury-prone in the past, and his back will long be a concern. For all the talk about not spending enough on players this winter, I don't recall hearing too much talk about adding a fifth outfielder to provide depth in case of a continuing problem for Angel. Boly did mention how problematic backs can be. Regarding Pablo, I think there are three main reasons he's not worth the money the Red Sox paid him. (Keep in mind that I love Pablo and at 5/$75 instead of 5/$95 would have bitten.) First of all, Pablo has been declining offensively. His OPS last season was 170 points lower than three years ago, and 204 points lower than his career high set in 2009. It is desirable to have charts heading northeast. Pablo's is heading southeast, which is the least desirable. Second, Pablo's weight has been swinging up and down pretty much all his major league career. Doctors tell us that's not good, even for a non-athlete. Pablo had to give up catching because of his weight. How soon will he need to give up third base? There is no designated hitter in the National League, and last season Pablo's OPS was below that of the average AL DH anyway. Third, Pablo has always been able to overcome a horrendous swing rate on bad pitches, but his rate reached a career-high 48.1% last season. Even half the worsening of Pablo's chase rate this season as it was last year would mean he was swinging at more bad balls than he was taking. How much slippage by Pablo would it take for that to finally matter - a lot? Declining offense, weight problems, worsening of the already-worst chase rate in baseball. Those are the reasons the more I think about it, the less sure I am that I would even pay 5/$75. The Giants are paying about the same per season to Casey McGehee and Jake Peavy as they would have paid to Pablo, and with a much shorter commitment. I'd rather have the two of them. Now, Randy, what are your arguments for Pablo's being worth the 5/$95? Incidentally, part of your argument is going to be how well Pablo has done in the playoffs. But aren't YOU the guy who is so worried that they won't even get there? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VQNXtjf1
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Post by Rog on Mar 25, 2015 14:32:28 GMT -5
Fan Graphs is coming out daily now with its positional ranking by team. Regarding third base as we've been discussion, they rank the Red Sox (Pablo) #10 overall. Casey McGehee and the Giants rank a very poor 28th. For those worried about the Giants' being passed by San Diego, the Padres and Will Middlebrooks are ranked #29, right behind the Giants.
One ranking that might turn out to be quite telling: The Padres and ranked 30th and last in team defense.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 25, 2015 14:59:53 GMT -5
Boly is right...backs don't ever fully heal. It's all about how much time it takes to flare back up.
As for Sandoval...how about this...just STFU and practice what you preach...wait and see what happens.
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Post by Rog on Mar 25, 2015 20:13:13 GMT -5
Randy -- As for Sandoval...how about this...just STFU and practice what you preach...wait and see what happens. Rog -- That mostly makes sense. I just wanted to see though the reasons why you think Pablo will be worth his contract? I just can't find many. That doesn't mean he won't turn out to be worth it. But it certainly seems to be reason for skepticism. Yet you show no skepticism. It bothers me when you argue and argue away, but can't come up with solid reasons for your argument. Maybe we SHOULD expect Pablo to be worth his contract. I'm waiting to be convinced. My mind IS open, so have at it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VRwfCgHu
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 25, 2015 20:50:29 GMT -5
You know what bothers me? When I post over and over again my reasons for taking a position that you then ignore or disregard saying I have given NO reasons. You may not like them or think they are idiotic or whatever, but they ARE my reasons and I'm DONE giving them.
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Post by Rog on Mar 26, 2015 8:55:37 GMT -5
Randy -- You know what bothers me? When I post over and over again my reasons for taking a position that you then ignore or disregard saying I have given NO reasons. Rog -- I guess what it is is that your reasons don't seem to have much behind them and have mostly been debunked. An example is that while Pablo has indeed been a marvelous hitter in the postseason, the sample is too small to be truly meaningful at this point. Let's not forget that while Pablo has been excellent in 2012 and 2014, he wasn't even playing well enough in 2010 to get in the lineup on a consistent basis. I have mentioned too that Pablo was horrendous in August of 2012 and last September. It may well be a case that he simply got hot in October. When I say horrendous, I'm talking about a .528 OPS in August, 2012 and a .550 OPS last September. In addition, I haven't seen any valid response to Pablo's being essentially a platoon player. His hitting against southpaws the last two seasons has gone from questionable (.686) to awful (.563 OPS). We had a similar discussion about the opposite split with regard to another player who went to Boston via free agency -- Cody Ross. Pablo's advantage over Cody is that he is in the strong side of a platoon while Cody is in the weak side. What is weird about Pablo is that when he first came up, he actually hit southpaws BETTER. In fact, while he has declined overall, most of the decline has come against southpaws. If Pablo's splits were reversed and he posted a .563 OPS last season against RIGHThanders, he wouldn't have been playing much. To make it worse, Pablo's decline has been fairly consistent, from .723 in 2011 to .745 in 2012 to .686 in 2013 to .528 last season. If I were guessing, I would guess Pablo would bounce back some this season. It's tough to go down from .528. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VUyWNhGG
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 27, 2015 21:56:56 GMT -5
McGehee kicks an easy grounder to start a 3 run rally. Guess he's not so awesome after all
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Post by Rog on Mar 28, 2015 11:38:39 GMT -5
Randy -- McGehee kicks an easy grounder to start a 3 run rally. Guess he's not so awesome after all Rog -- And no one said he was. I myself have always contended Pablo is the better fielder. Casey is something like Pablo when the Panda is weighty. Even then Pablo may be the better of the two. I think the most positive thing said here about Casey is that he's steady, that he makes the routine play better than Pablo. What makes you so aggravating, Randy, is that you take what others say and turn it into what you need to have had them said in order to promulgate your often-ridiculous arguments. As I have long said to you, Randy, just stick with the truth. Stick with the truth, and perhaps you can rebuild your credibility. You once had it with me, so I presume you also had it with everyone else here. I yearn to return to those days. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2762/more-pain-neck?page=2#ixzz3VhOHtBrO
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