An Idea Not to Get Excited About

[Rog]

Here's a thought that isn't very sexy or exciting, but might have some merit.

With the top outfield free agents about half gone and with big money perhaps going out to Jon Lester and Chase Headley, it might be prudent to look at other less exciting solutions to the left field hole.

With that in mind, John Mayberry was non-tendered by the Blue Jays.  He was projected to make $1.9 million in arbitration, so he wouldn't be expensive.

Mayberry is a right-handed hitter who stands 6-foot-6 and weighs 230 pounds.  The son of the former player of the same name, he played his college ball at Stanford and was the 19th overall draft pick in 2005.  He has played approximately an equal number of games in each of the three outfield spots.  He has also played first base.  He has a .734 career OPS.

Mayberry has played almost all his career with Philadelphia as his home stadium.  That might have aided his home run rate, which stands at one homer every 26 at bats (20 homers in a 522 at bat season).  His home run rate has actually been a bit better on the road than at home.

He has hit for just a .241 career average, leading to a .305 OBP.  But he also has a .429 SLG, meaning he averages over a base and a half per hit.  His strength is down in the zone and middle in, so pitchers would likely try to go high and outside in AT&T Park, forcing him to hit to right center.  He's a pull hitter, particularly power-wise.

He hits a lot of fly balls, which wouldn't be a plus at AT&T.  He doesn't hit a lot of balls to right field, so teams would shift heavily against him in the outfield.

Here's the thing that stands out.  He has a .857 OPS against southpaws, against whom he has a homer every 16 at bats.  This guy might make a very nice platoon partner for Gregor Blanco.  Certainly looks a lot better than Juan Perez, who could still be the fifth outfielder.

If the Jays non-tendered him at an estimated $1.9 million, the Giants ought to be able to pick him up for $2 million or so -- maybe less, since he hit just .212 last season and was injured.

I wish I knew more about Mayberry, but on the face of it he looks like he might be a fit out of the bargain basement.  Low average, but has some power and rakes southpaws.

[Rog]

So why is Mayberry available? After a fine rookie season in 2011, he's really declined. Still hits southpaws though.

[klaiggeb]

Mayberry is an interesting possibility.

The questions to be answered are; what happened after that rookie season?

Was he really that good to begin with?

Or maybe it was the mental aspect of playing in Philthy-delphia with their high intensity, demanding crowds?

Would he perform better with a new venue?

If it wasn't for an outrageous amount of money, he "might" be worth the chance.

Not my first choice, but I 'might' take a chance on him if I was out of options, or if he was the best option left.


boly

[Rog]

Boly -- Not my first choice, but I 'might' take a chance on him if I was out of options, or if he was the best option left.

Rog -- Your opinion here is pretty close to my own. And I don't have the answer to your questions. (By the way, I misread his heat chart. He actually hits best on pitches low and away, not middle in. I'm not quite sure how he pulls the ball so often.)

What we seem to be seeing though is a good chance the Giants will spend most of their money on pitching and the hot corner. That could mean manning left field on the cheap. With Mike Morse expected to get something like 2/$20, he's no longer "on the cheap."

The Giants showed they could indeed win with Gregor Blanco, which would save a lot of money. Mayberry might be an inexpensive player to complement Blanco. Chris Denorfia might be another.

Who knows? Maybe it could be Gary Brown! (Although Gary actually hit better against righties than southpaws last season.)

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3Kr46m5dT

[Islandboagie]

Mayberry has been given many chances. Kyle Blanks was also non-tendered and he's never really played a full season. I would roll the dice on him before Mayberry.

[sfgdood]

wow...this is just sad

[Islandboagie]

What's sad?

Is it sad that we're merely discussing alternate options?

Would it be sad if the Giants signed Lester or Scherzer..traded to get an all-star caliber 3rd baseman, then picked up someone like Mayberry or Blanks to platoon with Blanco and or Ishikawa? I think that would be far from a sad situation.

Getting a scrap heaper certainly wouldn't be my first choice, but getting Lester or Scherzer would be, and if we get one of them, chances are we'll have to save money elsewhere.

[sfgdood]

The names Mayberry, Blanks, Dinorfia and Ishikawa...a pretty sad bunch

[Rog]

Randy -- The names Mayberry, Blanks, Dinorfia and Ishikawa...a pretty sad bunch

Rog -- Why such a downer, Randy? We're talking about bargain basement solutions for left field in the event that the Giants spend so much on a pitcher and a third baseman that they have very little money left over.

Which players would you sign, Randy?

By the way, Nick Markakis just signed with the Braves for 4/$44. As we discussed in another post, Nick doesn't appear to be much of a prize, and he certainly got time and distance (money).

There are very few top left fielders left on the market. The best would be Melky Cabrera, but he left the Giants under difficult circumstances, making it likely he won't be back. He's also been projected to get at least 4/$56, which actually might be a bargain compared to Markakis.

I think I saw somewhere a projection of 5/$70 for Melky, and that might wind up being closer to the resolution. That's the thing about supply and demand. When the supply is low, prices go up. Free agents are already going for about $7-$7.5 million per Win Above Replacement, and I suspect that number will rise this off season.

It appears the Giants have about $30 million to spend. On average, that would buy about 4 WAR. They are in danger of losing Pablo Sandoval (3.3 WAR and already gone), Mike Morse (1.0 WAR), Sergio Romo (0.3 WAR), Jake Peavy (2.5 WAR) and Ryan Vogelsong (1.2 WAR). So the Giants are losing 8.3 WAR from players they couldn't afford to bring back, let alone try to more than replace the lost or potentially lost players as they are trying to do.

What makes that tough is that their five free agents are projected to sign contracts for in excess of $50 million per season. So the Giants are trying to replace their lost players with $20 million or more less to spend than the self-replacement of those players is projected to cost.

WAR tells us that the Giants are essentially a .500 team without their five free agents. I suspect we could agree that would be more or less the case.

There are other ways besides free agents in which they can improve, of course. Trades, call ups, return from injury and full seasons from players called up in mid season of 2014. Improvements of present players.

Bottom line though -- which players would we sign? We're looking replacement if not improvement.

I think Mark has said Lester, Headley and a left field platoon. That's stretching the budget, but it might be doable with back loaded contracts, as he mentioned. WAR says Lester and Headley would come fairly close to replacing the five free agents the Giants would lose, so Mark's concept seems to make sense.

Do we think Mark's idea is as good as it is likely to get, or can we come up with something we think is better?

We can talk about what a sad bunch of bargain basement players it is, or we can constructively see how those players and the others available at higher costs can best be packaged through free agent acquisition to replace or improve the five free agents the Giants are trying to replace.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3KuCmV7mB

[Rog]

I think Kyle Blanks is another good mention from the bargain basement. He may be a better player than Mayberry, and he'll almost certainly cost less. He doesn't have the huge platoon split Mayberry has though, which might not be as useful.

Very good idea though. I had forgotten about Kyle. Given the cost differential, he's probably a better choice than Mayberry.

An inexpensive way to fill a position fairly effectively can be to create a platoon for the position. Given that Gregor Blanco is a decent offensive player and a very good defensive player, using him as the strong side of a platoon isn't the worst idea in the world.

The top solutions for left field are drying up. The Giants may have to be creative.

[rxmeister]

I really liked Mayberry coming up, and I think the Phillies did a really poor job of preferring veterans who could no longer do the job at the expense of kids. With that being said, I would try to pry Dom Brown from the Phillies because they're ruining that kid. I remember the Giants wanting Belt to talk to Brown because they were the same type of hitter and Brown was an all star while Belt was struggling. Now it's pretty much the other way around. Getting the Phillies to trade him coming off a bad year might be a steal.

[Rog]

Mark -- I would try to pry Dom Brown from the Phillies because they're ruining that kid. I remember the Giants wanting Belt to talk to Brown because they were the same type of hitter and Brown was an all star while Belt was struggling. Now it's pretty much the other way around. Getting the Phillies to trade him coming off a bad year might be a steal.

Rog -- Outstanding idea with Brown, although I wonder why the Phillies would want to trade him, particularly for what the Giants have to offer. But as you point out, it certainly couldn't hurt to try. He was a very legitimate prospect who had a very fine 2013 season.

Regarding Blanco/Mayberry, if we take their career splits and give Blanco three-quarters of the plate appearances, we wind ujp with a .738 OPS. That's one point less than Pablo's OPS last season.

Brown might make the Giants a good player, and since he's not eligible to be a free agent for three more years, a reasonably priced one.

Blanco/Mayberry or Blanco/Blanks (Say that one really quickly over and over.) might also provide a decent -- not great -- solution with little additional cost. Blanco/Perez or Blanco/Brown would be even cheaper.

We're talking about making lemonade out of lemons. In a baseball world filled with ever-increasing player salaries there's value to that.

If signing a player such as Mayberry or Blanks would allow the Giants to sign both Lester and Headley, it might be worth it.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3KwHmHkix

[Rog]

What I believe would be an affordable trio would be Ervin Santana, Headley and Mike Morse. Maybe Melky Cabrera instead of Morse if the Giants were willing to take Melky back and to do more back loading.

Santana/Headley/Cabrera or Lester/Headley/Emilio Bonafacio? The cost would be about the same. Actually, if the Giants were to land Lester and Headley, Bonafacio might make a very nice platoon partner for Blanco. If the Giants went Santana/Headley/Bonafacio, I believe they could make budget with little to no back loading.

Santana is a guy we haven't mentioned, and he would cost a draft pick. But the Giants have already picked up a draft pick from Boston, so the net loss would be minimal. Santana has been a good, workhorse pitcher the past two seasons (407 combined innings), and it was just a year ago he was angling for a 5/$100 contract. Santana's swinging strike rate last season was 11.7%. That's even better than Madison Bumgarner's 11.1%. Bonafacio isn't Mike Morse, but he's a decent player who is very, very versatile.

Santana isn't Jon Lester, but he might not cost much more than half as much -- and on a much shorter term.

Santana and Bonafacio. Two players we came up with today who might be relative bargains (as much as anyone is a bargain in today's market). Two players who aren't sexy, but who might be very cost-efficient.

If they could enable the Giants to also acquire Headley and the young Cuban whiz Moncado, I'd be very excited.

[sfgdood]

Randy -- The names Mayberry, Blanks, Dinorfia and Ishikawa...a pretty sad bunch

Rog -- Why such a downer, Randy? We're talking about bargain basement solutions for left field in the event that the Giants spend so much on a pitcher and a third baseman that they have very little money left over.

Which players would you sign, Randy?

Dood - Not those guys. I reject going cheap on any of those positions and this business of going through the bargain basement is a false narrative. The owners are just wanting to pocket more money instead of spending it to ensure a competitive team. That's why they didn't extend Pablo when they had the chance, that's why they missed out on him as a FA and it's why they cheaped out on the Tomas sweepstakes which turned out to be far less than was being reported. They are squeezing all their pennies and it sickens me that we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel. But of course it's their money to do with as they feel fit. I just think it's dastardly of them to tell the fans they are doing all they can when they are not.

[Islandboagie]

Dood - Not those guys. I reject going cheap on any of those positions and this business of going through the bargain basement is a false narrative. The owners are just wanting to pocket more money instead of spending it to ensure a competitive team. That's why they didn't extend Pablo when they had the chance, that's why they missed out on him as a FA and it's why they cheaped out on the Tomas sweepstakes which turned out to be far less than was being reported. They are squeezing all their pennies and it sickens me that we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel. But of course it's their money to do with as they feel fit. I just think it's dastardly of them to tell the fans they are doing all they can when they are not.

Boagie- Pablo left because he wanted to eat burritos again. The Giants put up the money, he declined because he felt the Giants "disrespected" him by not letting him be 40 lbs overweight. That's all there was to it. He doesn't want to be monitored anymore. He wants to be fat like David Ortiz and still be the toast of the town.

[sfgdood]

You know what really cracks me up...here we had Pablo, with whom we won 3 titles--two of which he was a HUGE part of--and I see some Giants "fans" basically calling him a fat greedy SOB. Then we have Melky who literally SHIT on the entire team and didn't even have the guts to own up to it or even apologize to his teammates in person and yet he's being welcomed back with open arms by those same "fans" calling Pablo toe jam.

[Islandboagie]

I'd take Pablo back too.

I'm just being realistic. I don't really care what these guys do off the field as long as it doesn't effect them on the field. Clearly Melky taking roids made him better. If he can manage to take them again and not get caught I'll gladly turn the other cheek just like the entire team did with Mota.

[sfgdood]

it's more than just the juicing...the way he handled himself after he got caught was deplorable and showed ZERO respect for his teammates

[Islandboagie]

That was probably more out of embarrassment. Again, I don't really care what someone does off the field, partly because I don't know the full story, when I don't know the full story I usually don't rush to judgment. With Melky, I think we should leave it up to the Giants organization whether or not he should be welcomed back. They know the full story and how the players would feel.

[Rog]

Dood - Not those guys. I reject going cheap on any of those positions and this business of going through the bargain basement is a false narrative.

Rog -- We now know which player you WOULDN'T want to sign, but which players WOULD you want?

Randy -- The owners are just wanting to pocket more money instead of spending it to ensure a competitive team.

Rog -- The Giants clearly have things working for them (such as sellout crowds). But they also seem to have two things working against them -- paying off the mortgage, and not having a big TV contract. It is the huge local TV contracts that are allowing teams to spend the really big bucks. The Giants don't have one.

Randy -- That's why they didn't extend Pablo when they had the chance, that's why they missed out on him as a FA

Rog -- It has been written that while their initial offer of 3/$40 was a lower-than-low ball, they were willing to go to a level where I think Pablo was foolish not to take it. He gambled and won. But he took a pretty good risk, and the Giants' final offer before the season began was a very solid one -- and real gamble on their part.

Randy -- and it's why they cheaped out on the Tomas sweepstakes which turned out to be far less than was being reported.

Rog -- I was all for signing Tomas until I read the scouting reports that showed less upside than I had hoped and far more risk than I was expecting. It is possible that had something to do with the Giants' decision.

Randy -- They are squeezing all their pennies and it sickens me that we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel. But of course it's their money to do with as they feel fit. I just think it's dastardly of them to tell the fans they are doing all they can when they are not.

Rog -- I hadn't heard them say they were doing all they can, although I suspect that is truly what they believe. I doubt they believe they are scraping the bottom of the barrel, when there are only two or three teams that are clearly outspending them.

I don't think we're being realistic here.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3KzQrpElH

[rxmeister]

Where to begin... First to the Giants presumed penny pinching. Dood, if they had lost Pablo over a few dollars I would be the first to agree with you, but they didn't lose Pablo over money, so how can you make that claim? And I still love Pablo and will root for him to do well, but I certainly understand any fan angry at him because there was absolutely no excuse for him to leave. He was loved, the team was beyond successful and the Giants were at or near the top with their bid. Listening to him talk about "a new challenge" was puke inducing. What new challenge? Is he aware the Red Sox just won the WS in 2013? He sounded like this was a team that has never won. If he wanted a challenge, why not go to San Diego? Win a WS with a team that's never won it before. Like I said, I'll root for him but I understand why other Giants fans won't. Now for Melky. He left as an FA and the Giants didn't offer him a contract so his leaving wasn't something we could get angry over. The PED thing with the fake website? Do you think that was his idea? That had to be bad advice from his agent or lawyers, I can't get too angry over something like that. And the thing he did with the batting title was gracious and the right thing to do. All that being said, Bobby Evans on KNBR yesterday said that talks with him were very preliminary and that 3B remains the priority, not LF. The priorities right now are Lester and Headley, and it looks like Ervin Santana is the fallback option if they lose out on Lester. Evans said they're talking to other third basemen as well if they whiff on Headley, but Chase is definitely the best third baseman out there right now. Rog mentioned Morse, but Evans said that although they're in touch, he has nice offers on the table from AL teams with the DH, so it's doubtful he'll be back. Michael Morse's one year in SF turned out perfectly. He took a one year relatively cheap deal to re establish his market value and he did just that. And in return, the Giants received a good year from a player who turned out to be a key component of a world championship. He even drove in the World Series winning run. Like I said, the relationship worked out perfectly!

[Rog]

Randy -- this business of going through the bargain basement is a false narrative.

Rog -- Juan Uribe, Santiago Casilla, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, Aubrey Huff, Mike Morse, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi and Ryan Theriot are among those who might argue otherwise.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3L2B63kje

[Rog]

I'm just not understanding you, Randy.

Seemingly every off season you get on the Giants for not spending more. Yet they have won three World Series in five seasons. One of those, 2012, came less than three months after you had written them off.

Pretty much all of us would love it if the Giants could spend like the Dodgers, but the Dodgers' TV contract dwarfs that of the Giants, so it just isn't likely to happen. Yet despite not being able to spend with the Dodgers, the Giants have been more than competitive with them.

This season is a really tough one for the Giants IMO. By my estimation,they have about $30 million to spend. They're trying to replace players (Sandoval, Romo, Peavy, Vogelsong and Morse), who will likely earn north of $50 million per season. Is that a challenge, or what?

They made a competitive offer to Sandoval, apparently have finished second with one or two other players, and are talking about players rated as highly as Jon Lester.

You sneered at Chase Headley, yet the guy is said to have an offer of 4/$65 on the table, so clearly some of the teams aren't sneering.

You put your marbles into Pablo Sandoval, when others were talking about how it was the PACKAGE of players the Giants sign this off season that mattered more.

The Giants haven't done anything concrete yet, even though they have been building relationships with some pretty decent players. Perhaps we should give them a chance to do what they can do with that $30 million or so before we chastise them.

Even then, let's remember that Brian Sabean has pulled off some moves (remember Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez at the 2010 trade deadline?) that may have turned out better than anyone suspected.

It's an imperfect world, even in the world of baseball. But we live in there. Why not make the most of it?

[sfgdood]

I'm just not understanding you, Randy.

Seemingly every off season you get on the Giants for not spending more. Yet they have won three World Series in five seasons. One of those, 2012, came less than three months after you had written them off.

Dood - I love the WS years but to say that we had full confidence as a group in any of them, I believe would be altogether false. But what bothers me most about the Giants strategy of going cheap in the offseason and trying to clean up any deficiencies at the deadline is you end up giving yourself almost no margin for error. You either need to give up prospects at the deadline or strike oil with somebody off the scrap heap. It's been enough to make the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 years, but with our resources, it shouldn't have been that narrow a proposition...and NOT qualifying for the playoffs in between those years was a total embarrassment and indictment on the strategy. If they were making the playoffs in those off years, I wouldn't be upset about their strategy. But to me it seems like that isn't the priority in seasons following parades.




Pretty much all of us would love it if the Giants could spend like the Dodgers, but the Dodgers' TV contract dwarfs that of the Giants, so it just isn't likely to happen. Yet despite not being able to spend with the Dodgers, the Giants have been more than competitive with them.

Dood - I still say it's choice. The Giants certainly could spend more if they wanted to and still make a tidy profit. Personally I believe they owe it to the fans to do just that...the fans pack the stadium every night.

[sfgdood]

Where to begin... First to the Giants presumed penny pinching. Dood, if they had lost Pablo over a few dollars I would be the first to agree with you, but they didn't lose Pablo over money, so how can you make that claim?

Dood - because they had to wait for him to be a FA to make that offer. Had they done it in the Spring, we wouldn't be in this predicament.



Listening to him talk about "a new challenge" was puke inducing. What new challenge? Is he aware the Red Sox just won the WS in 2013? He sounded like this was a team that has never won. If he wanted a challenge, why not go to San Diego? Win a WS with a team that's never won it before.

Dood - ANY different team would be a new challenge. As it would be for any person in a new job, especially in a different city.



Now for Melky. He left as an FA and the Giants didn't offer him a contract so his leaving wasn't something we could get angry over. The PED thing with the fake website? Do you think that was his idea? That had to be bad advice from his agent or lawyers, I can't get too angry over something like that.

Dood - my biggest beef is that he left without either an apology or explanation to his teammates. He's a selfish putz and regardless of whether the Giants have forgiven him, I NEVER will. I won't ever cheer for this "man" again.

[sfgdood]

You sneered at Chase Headley, yet the guy is said to have an offer of 4/$65 on the table, so clearly some of the teams aren't sneering.

Dood - hey some teams are willing to overlook the fact that Gregor Blanco had a higher OPS than Headley. I happen to not think it's something to overlook.

[rxmeister]

Headley was hurt at the start of the year and got off to a very slow start when he returned. I'm sure you don't think Gregor Blanco is a better player than him, but I do agree that the price for him has become excessive based on his recent performance. By the way, the narrative that the Giants offered Pablo 3 for 40 in the spring has been highly disputed by management, and even if it was their opening offer, they've made it clear that they improved the offer greatly during the season. The number I heard was 4/80 which seems reasonable to me.

[rxmeister]

By the way, the Giants signed Justin Maxwell to a minor league deal today. He's not much, but he hit 18 home runs for Houston in 2012 in just 315 at bats, although he only hit .229. Plays all three OF positions and could be a helpful bat off the bench. He was with KC this past year. Right handed hitter who is 31 years old. Is it possible the Giants expect to move or have given up on both Juan Perez and Gary Brown? Winter meetings next week!

[Rog]

Rog -- You sneered at Chase Headley, yet the guy is said to have an offer of 4/$65 on the table, so clearly some of the teams aren't sneering.

Dood - hey some teams are willing to overlook the fact that Gregor Blanco had a higher OPS than Headley. I happen to not think it's something to overlook.

Rog -- Just as teams were likely placing a nice value on Pablo Sandoval's postseason exploits, they no doubt looked at how he improved last season after he was traded to the Yankees. With the Yankees, he had a .371 OBP, and his career mark is still a healthy .347.

Teams are also becoming much more analytical, and Chase stands up to that scrutiny well. I have already mentioned many of his promising areas (as well as one or two that don't promise as much), so I won't go back over them. I do want to mention that Chase's career .347 OBP comes despite a career .265 average.

In other words, he draws walks. And drawing walks is less prone to slumps than getting base hits.

Criticizing Headley for his OBP is really "chasing" a bit of a mirage.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2607/idea-get-excited#ixzz3L3rUL06F

[sfgdood]

again scraping the bottom of the barrel...woo friggin hoo!