Boly -- I haven't seen that much of Headley at 3B, but it is hard for me to believe he was BETTER than Pablo, because he was awfully, awfully good over there.
Rog -- I was a bit surprised too, because Pablo was DARN good defensively this year. Probably haven't EVER seen a player make as much defensive improvement as he has -- even going back to when he began his Giants minor league career as a third baseman, but particularly his improvement after coming to the Giants primarily as a catcher and first baseman.
So think how good HEADLEY must be to have many if not most think he is better defensively than Pablo. That is a strong part of the reason some believe Chase will be a better all-around player going forward. That Headley is considered a good base runner doesn't hurt in the comparison, either.
Will Headley be better than Pablo going forward? Isn't that quite literally the $64 million question? But if he can at least be close, he's probably a better value than Pablo is/was. It is entirely possible that Pablo will be the better of the two the next year or two and that Chase will be the better player three or four years down the road.
I wish Headley weren't getting so expensive. I liked the idea of not signing Pablo and instead signing Chase better when I thought Chase would go for something like 4/$50. But depending on how one views the game, it's far from impossible that Chase WILL be the better player going forward.
WAR isn't a perfect way of comparing players, but there are few ways that are better. And WAR says that Headley is ALREADY right in there with Pablo.
Going back one year, it's Headley 3.5 WAR to 3.3 for Pablo.
Two years, it's Headley 6.3 to Pablo's 6.0.
Three years, it's Headley 13.6 to Pablo's 8.1
Four years, it's Headley 16.4 to Pablo's 14.2.
Five years, it's Headley 20.3 to Pablo's 15.7.
Six years, it's Headley 20.9 to Pablo's 20.0.
Again, WAR isn't a perfect evaluator. But it does tell us that Headley's fielding and base running -- as well as his league-leading 115 RBI's in 2012 -- make him a lot closer to Pablo than many realize.
I mentioned that Headley's 115 RBI's bested Pablo's top total by a full 25 runs. Each player had 25 homers in his career RBI year. Headley drove home 90 runners on base to Pablo's 65. To illustrate how much better Headley was at driving home runners, Chase had 29 more runners on than Pablo did. He drove home 25 more.
In those career RBI seasons, Headley finished #5 in the MVP voting; Pablo finished #7.
I'm not saying that Headley has been the better player. What I am saying is that the difference hasn't been nearly as much as people think.
Chase has clearly had two down years at the plate in 2013 and 2014. Yet his OPS of .741 and .700 haven't been horribly far behind Pablo's .758 and .739. And if we go back one more year, Chase was at .875 to Pablo's .789. Chase was nearly 100 points higher.
If we go back to 2011, it was Pablo who enjoyed the huge edge, .909 to .773.
All in all, Pablo has been the better of the two at the plate. Chase has been the better in the field and on the bases. (In addition to running around the bases, Chase has 76 career steals in 99 attempts, while Pablo has 11 steals in 23 attempts.)
For the type of ball you like, Boly -- speed and defense -- Headley is clearly the better player. If we throw hitting in (and it's probably a big enough part of the game that we should!), Pablo has been the better player.
But once again, it's a lot closer than most think. Some might think the comparison is more like Willie Mays to Willie Mays Aikens, or Hank Aaron to Tommy. Ken Griffey Jr. to Griffey Sr. Barry Bonds to Bobby Bonds. Joe DiMaggio to Vince.
But it's really closer to a comparison of Dom DiMaggio to a composite of Joe and Vince. A comparison of Joe to Willie. A comparison of The Mick to The Duke.
Of a .200 batting average to the actual Mendoza Line. A comparison of Joe DiMaggio to Joe Montana. Of Rogers Hornsby to Aaron Rodgers.
Sadly, as it turns out, closer to a comparison of $19 million a year to $16 per season than to the $12 million or so I was hoping for.
If the difference were truly as much as many think, do you think the offer for 4/$65 would be out there for Chase?
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