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Post by sharksrog on Dec 14, 2013 18:35:39 GMT -5
It appears the Giants are serious players in the international market. From beat writer Alex Pavlovic:
Finally, something I heard many times this week, and should excite a few of you, I think. The Giants are viewed as being very, very serious about the international market. Two people familiar with the Jose Abreu negotiations told me they thought Abreu was going to end up with the Giants.
“The Giants are players down there, pla-yers,” one of them said. “It’s only a matter of time before they get one of these guys.”
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Post by allenreed on Dec 14, 2013 21:19:13 GMT -5
Tanaka.
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Post by allenreed on Dec 14, 2013 21:21:25 GMT -5
Tanaka, please.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 15, 2013 8:20:05 GMT -5
I doubt they were talking about Tanaka there, as he's part of a separate posting process. There's rumors that Tanaka won't even be posted, because the supposed new rules will have a 20 million maximum bid. If you're the owner of his team and are now getting 20 million instead of the rumored 100 million, you might be inclined to tell MLB to go to hell and you're going to keep him. I've heard the Giants are very interested in a couple of Cuban players.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 15, 2013 12:26:14 GMT -5
Randy should be happy that they're interested in any international players at all.
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Post by dk on Dec 15, 2013 17:45:51 GMT -5
It appears the Giants are serious players in the international market. From beat writer Alex Pavlovic: Finally, something I heard many times this week, and should excite a few of you, I think. The Giants are viewed as being very, very serious about the international market. Two people familiar with the Jose Abreu negotiations told me they thought Abreu was going to end up with the Giants. “The Giants are players down there, pla-yers,” one of them said. “It’s only a matter of time before they get one of these guys.” dk...the Giants have signed several players in the International market and with little success.....maybe it is the scouts they have down there....
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 15, 2013 22:01:22 GMT -5
As I said all along...talk is cheap. Show me results and I'll get excited. Until then it's all just lip service.
~Dood
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 16, 2013 15:47:01 GMT -5
oh and FYI...Pavlovic is just a couple years removed from covering HS sports...I wouldnt trust his sources too readily.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2013 8:16:27 GMT -5
Randy -- As I said all along...talk is cheap. Show me results and I'll get excited. Until then it's all just lip service. Rog -- I think that is extremely short-sighted. No question we would be happier if we had seen the results. But Abreu seems best suited to "play" designated hitter and likely would have provided a significant defensive challenge at two positions -- first base and left field. The word is that the Giants didn't get him because they were unwilling to go the extra year, which the American League White Sox were more willing to do, since they can play an older Abreu as their DH. But are you telling me you don't feel a lot better hearing from multiple outside sources that the Giants are indeed serious players in the international market than knowing they aren't and are just blowing smoke? Your attitude here seems quite different than your take on Gary Brown. You say "talk is cheap. Show me results and I'll get excited." Guess what. Sadly, Gary has shown no results above Class A ball, and was pretty bad in AAA (although John Sickels said when he watched Gary play a game, Brown made a couple of good catches. Brown also lost a ball in the twilight that night, having the ball land about 20 feet behind him, but I would certainly consider the two good catches to be far more important. Perhaps the most important information we have here though is that in two years, Brown has yet to show he can be a good player above Class A ball, and he has gotten worse in each of the two seasons. The Giants were looking at Gary as a leadoff man, but he strikes out far too often (and/or takes too few walks) and has yet to show a knack for efficient base stealing. Brown has been below 70% in base stealing (105 steals in 154 attempts) and last season was just 17 out of 28 (although I believe he did improve some as the season went on). Brown, who just two years ago was considered the #38 prospect in all of baseball, is beginning to look like a good-field, no-hit 4th or 5th outfielder. As John Sickels pointed out, it may have been significant that Roger Kieschnick, not Brown, was the player the Giants called up midseason to strenghten their outfield. Likewise with Juan Perez. If Gary had come on as the Giants projected two years ago, he would be their 2014 starting center fielder, bumping Angel Pagan to left field. He also would have bumped Angel down in the order. My point here is that I'm seeing a huge inconsistency in how you view Brown compared to how you view the Giants' place in the international marketplace. All indications are that the Giants' international presence is clearly above Brown's present prospect presence. Brown certainly has wonderful physical tools (hence the former #38 overall ranking), but he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk enough. That's not a promising combination. That and a couple of scouting reports I had seen were the reasons I wasn't as excited about Brown two years ago as you were. Believe me, I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope you are right about Gary. If he were suddenly to play to the Giants' expectations again, chances are he would still be the regular center fielder before season's end. But Brown's stock has dropped like it had a price split, and unfortunately any split had a far different connotation. Incidentally, I was higher on Joe Panik, and his stock also dropped last season to where many now view him as a utilityman. Panik seems to control the strike zone; he doesn't hit the ball hard enough to get anyone excited anymore. J ust two years ago Brown and Panik were the Giants' top two prospects. One can make an argument that neither is now in the top 10. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17774#ixzz2nji7BZfT
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2013 8:18:50 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 17, 2013 12:00:21 GMT -5
First of all I have seen Gary Brown play with my own eyes. So that's why I feel about him the way I do. I could be wrong about what he will be but I know what I saw and believe a great career is very possible still. I can't deny he has been very disappointing since 2011 but I know he has what it takes to be a very good big leaguer.
Second of all, it's a lame cheap shot to say you trust Alex's sources more than mine. As you are wont to say...DUH! I trust his sources more than yours too or anyone else's on this board. But among Giants writers, his sources are still far less reliable, for now, than the more experienced guys.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 17, 2013 13:10:20 GMT -5
Randy -- First of all I have seen Gary Brown play with my own eyes. So that's why I feel about him the way I do. I could be wrong about what he will be but I know what I saw and believe a great career is very possible still. Rog -- I agree completely. Randy -- I can't deny he has been very disappointing since 2011 but I know he has what it takes to be a very good big leaguer. Rog -- We don't know yet that he has what it takes to be a very good big leaguer (just as we don't know that he doesn't). He hasn't yet demonstrated enough plate control to be a very good big leaguer, and he hasn't yet shown he can steal bases at that level. Defensively though, he has shown he likely will be a big star. And center field is an important defensive position -- probably in the top three on the field. The only thing we disagree on is whether Gary has the tools to be a very good big leaguer. You say yes, since clearly he has the potential to be about a 4 1/2 tool player (which is pretty much what Barry Bonds was). I'm not as convinced, since I haven't yet seen enough plate control to feel good about his batting tools. Randy -- Second of all, it's a lame cheap shot to say you trust Alex's sources more than mine. As you are wont to say...DUH! Rog -- You make a good point here. Yet you are the one who is mistrusting his sources. If you don't have better sources than he has, I'm not sure that is a reasonable conclusion on your part. Randy -- I trust his sources more than yours too or anyone else's on this board. Rog -- Exactly. Which is why none of us is truly in position to criticize his sources. Randy -- But among Giants writers, his sources are still far less reliable, for now, than the more experienced guys. Rog -- We don't know that, do we? Not that it might not make sense or even be right. But we just don't know. It is possible the sources prefer a younger guy like Alex to the several older guys who cover the Giants. It may be that his personality helps him. It may be that he's just lucky. My guess is that just about all of them have good sources -- and none of them has sources who are infallible. Randy, you're the one who's doubting here. And you're doubting on personal speculation, not on anything approaching an informed source or even information that is available to the public. You seem to be just guessing. I don't think it's very good to criticize someone when we're simply guessing. At least not without seriously qualifying our opinion. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17819#ixzz2nkx8VDzF
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 17, 2013 15:17:03 GMT -5
Dood, your eyes tell you Gary Brown has what it takes to be a good player? What was that song by the Eagles? "Lyin' eyes?" The guy has great speed, yet he's a poor base stealer. He doesn't have power, yet his K-BB numbers are numbers that you would only accept from a power hitter. He does have all the skills, but he seems to be hiding them quite nicely when he plays. The minors are littered with players who have all the tools and never put them together. The Giants have a kid named Wendell Fairly who was a first round sandwich pick and a football star. All the talent in the world, and he'll never even make the high minors. Gary Brown failed at triple A last year, and I sure don't see what you're seeing.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 17, 2013 18:30:35 GMT -5
You couldn't have seen what I saw Rx because you don't live on the West Coast and can't see his games. You, like statsgeek Rog, are going merely on stats. And the stats do say Gary's taken steps backward since 2011. Maybe you're right about him not having much a future in the big leagues. But if that does happen, it won't be because he didn't possess the skills for the trade.
~Dood
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 18, 2013 8:13:39 GMT -5
I agreed with you about the skills, Dood, but your comments about stats geeks is ridiculous. The Giants are not going to give their CF job to a kid who's barely hitting .200 in the hitter friendly PCL because their eyes tell them he's a player. "My eyes adored you. Though you can't hit a lick, my eyes adored you." With apologies to Frankie Valli.
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Post by allenreed on Dec 18, 2013 9:02:56 GMT -5
Sounds like Peguero. Looks like hean play, but no results.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 18, 2013 10:13:39 GMT -5
"My eyes adored you. Though you can't hit a lick, my eyes adored you." With apologies to Frankie Valli. ---boly says---
Mark! Well done!
Took a page right out of my "re-writing lyrics" book!
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 18, 2013 12:34:41 GMT -5
I will officially never give any more scouting reports from San Jose Giants players because obviously you have decided they mean nothing.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Dec 18, 2013 12:41:24 GMT -5
Not sure why you would say that. Your scouting report on Brown was more than likely pretty darn accurate. But after leaving San Jose, even you would have to admit he hasn't really done much.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 18, 2013 12:49:24 GMT -5
If I'm going to be ridiculed and blasted for telling what I see in San Jose, what point is there to it? I'll just let everyone do the statsgeek thing and look up the numbers, which is what they put more faith in anyway.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Dec 18, 2013 16:43:13 GMT -5
Sad to hear. I don't follow the minors very closely, so I'm always anxious to get input from those that do. I know I took what you said about Brown to heart, but I can't say see where he should have been promoted to the majors. What I'm taking from this is that Brown has the physical tools to play in the majors, but for some reason hasn't been able to develop it yet. It's not a unique malady. Maybe this year will tell a different story.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2013 1:12:39 GMT -5
Randy -- You couldn't have seen what I saw Rx because you don't live on the West Coast and can't see his games. You, like statsgeek Rog, are going merely on stats. And the stats do say Gary's taken steps backward since 2011. Maybe you're right about him not having much a future in the big leagues. But if that does happen, it won't be because he didn't possess the skills for the trade. Rog -- You are right about one thing here, Randy. As far as I know, with the exception of a spring training game or two on TV, we've never seen him. You have that advantage on us. But I think that may actually have turned into a DISadvantage for you. I don't believe you are judging him objectively anymore. I think Mark and I are doing so. As for his having the tools to succeed, that depends on one's definition. He certainly has the speed, glove and throwing arm. But even though he did hit marvelously at San Jose, he has never shown the plate control needed especially by a leadoff hitter, which is what the Giants, you and, yes, I hoped for. I told you this back when you were signing his praises, and I even upgraded my opinion of Gary based on your strong opinion after having seen him. But I saw both stats and scouting reports that seriously questioned his plate control. I was hoping your scouting report was right, and perhaps it still will be. I wasn't optimistic to begin with, became hesitantly optimistic based on your comments, and have since become even more pessimistic than I was to begin with. As well as Gary hit at San Jose, Brandon Crawford had hit much better -- albeit in a much smaller sample. Roger Kieschnick had an OPS almost as high. Thomas Neal hit clearly better than Brown -- and at a younger age. On the other hand, those guys didn't show the all-around game Gary did. But as he has gone forward, Gary has had his hitting drop down closer to his level of plate control, and he still hasn't learned to steal bases, despite his off-the-charts speed. Last season Gary had more strikeouts than hits. He struck out four times as often as he walked. This is a very important season for him. If he can't hit the second time around in a AAA hitters' league, he almost certainly isn't going to hit. He has already gone from top prospect to so-so prospect. One more poor season, and he'll have dropped to suspect. By the time the Giants finish next season, Gary will be 26. Time isn't running out, but it's beginning to become a factor. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17828#ixzz2ntga37qy
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2013 8:18:54 GMT -5
Randy -- You, like statsgeek Rog, are going merely on stats. Rog -- I just figured it out. Calling me a stats geek in a derogatory manner is kind of saying, "You know at least as much baseball as I do, so I'll cut you down by calling you a stats geek. Let me rebutt your "you're going only on stats" argument by saying you're going only by what you THINK you saw. The last two years have indicated you don't appear to have seen quite what you thought you saw. While you were extolling Brown, I told you he lacked strike zone control. You've never refuted that argument, and it's bitten you in the butt the past two seasons. You act as if Mark and I don't know that Brown is extremely fast, has an excellent glove and an above-average arm. We don't deny that. Sounds kind of like Darren Ford though, doesn't it? Maybe Francisco Peguero, another of your seeming favorites. Now, if you want live scouting reports of some former San Jose players, let's look at a few: . Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner -- obvious calls. . Tim Alderson -- fastball almost never hit above 92. Source: the guy who ran the San Jose radar gun. . Danny Otero -- had to put the ball just where he wanted in order to be effective. Source: his dad. . Back to Lincecum -- 2006: getting guys out with just his fastball and his curve. 2007: Got more strikeouts in his first game at Fresno with his new change up than any other pitch. Tim's own private comment: I threw almost all fastballs and change ups. . Back to Bumgarner -- hard to pick up, breaking ball and change up not that far off. Source: a bullpen session with Madison pitching to Posey, plus his game performance, of course. Brandon Crawford -- Hitting .371 at San Jose with an OPS over 1.000. Scouting report: Won't hit well. Doesn't control the strike zone well enough. Angel Villalona -- Reasonably athletic-looking body, some fluidity, lack of control of the strike zone. Roger Kieschnick -- Athletic, but lacks control of the strike zone. Nick Noonan -- Not enough strike zone control to hit well. Conor Gillaspie -- OK hitter, poor fielder, too little power for third base. Darren Ford -- Tremendous speed, nice glove, little else. Clayton Tanner -- Tremendous competitor, but a LOOGY at best. Source on the competitor issue: a former soccer coach. Yeah, I didn't see Gary Brown play. But I can read both stats and scouting reports. If you look at the above scouting reports based on seeing players play for San Jose, they've been a lot more accurate than yours on Brown. And as for Brown, even without seeing him -- basing the evaluation solely on scouting reports and stats -- the judgement has been much closer to date. And as Mark pointed out, an inability to translate that great speed into efficient base stealing. Response from Randy: This guy obviously sees as much from watching players as I do, so I'll put him down by calling him a stats geek and saying he can't see beyond the stats. That oughta fool 'em. Hey, stats or not, nobody calls them all right. But most teams have agreed for quite a while now that the combination of scouting and stats work better than either individually and thus have added more and more statistical analysts. Read ESPN lately? A deeper analysis of stats than all of us on this board put together. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17888#ixzz2nvORcw8B
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 19, 2013 11:40:45 GMT -5
I think you made my point for me. You don't need or even want my opinions on SJ Giants players, so you wont have to read them anymore. You get all you want elsewhere.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2013 17:18:34 GMT -5
Randy -- You don't need or even want my opinions on SJ Giants players Rog -- I do need and want your opinions. I have even asked for them here on the board. The last San Jose Giants game I saw live was April 10, 2009, when Madison Bumgarner made his San Jose debut pitching to Buster Posey. I've seen a few on TV since then, but not many. I still know the way to San Jose, but I live a long way from there now. If I were to go to San Jose, it would likely be for a Sharks game. So, yeah, keep those reports coming. None of us is right all the time, and I wish you would be less sensitive about Gary Brown, but I love your reports on the players who go through San Jose. I've certainly made plenty of mistakes in evaluating players. I don't know anyone -- not even the scouts -- who doesn't. My fiancee doesn't like the safety of Stockton, and that's about the only place close enough to watch San Jose. I get to see some scouting reports and I do check out the stats of various player, but you're the only guy I know who sees them, so keep those reports coming. You've given us some reports on the young pitchers at San Jose this past season, but I for one would really enjoy more. How do you like Mac Williamson? How did you like Adam Duvall? You've told us some things about Andrew Susac, but I'd love to hear more. I love that kind of stuff, so yeah, I really do want to hear your opinions. And unless you're hard-headed and/or keep calling me names, I won't question how those reports turn out. You probably had a bead on the player I may have erred the most on -- Pablo Sandoval. I flat-out kicked it on him. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17913#ixzz2nxdMhbUE
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Post by allenreed on Dec 19, 2013 18:30:45 GMT -5
My fiancee doesn't like the safety of Stockton,
Allen- But she's Ok with San Jose?!
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2013 18:47:27 GMT -5
Rog -- My fiancee doesn't like the safety of Stockton, Allen- But she's Ok with San Jose?! Rog -- She said Stockton has one of the highest murder rates of any American city. When I went to a night game there to watch Tim Lincecum pitch (the one I invited you too, although I did so on very short notice, and I doubt you even got the message before I left), and I didn't feel threatened at all. I flew out of the stadium after Tim finished pitching, so I walked the streets when almost no one was around. Perhaps ignorance was bliss. By the way, the most startling thing happened after that game. I came across pictures on-line of Tim warming up in the bullpen that looked virtually how I remembered seeing him look while warming up. Then I remembered there was indeed a guy with a camera perhaps 15 feet from me. Later on, at a McCovey Chronicles event at McCovey's, I got to meet the guy. Of course, all I ever knew about Tim was stats. Speaking of Tim, when we were talking about prospects, I remember chatting on-line with John Sickels, who puts out an annual prospects book. He had both Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey rated higher than Tim, and I tried to convince him otherwise. Didn't have any success though, even though I made a pretty good argument. I'm sure I had seen Tim pitch a lot more than Sickels had, although he had access to scouting reports I didn't even know existed. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2142&page=1#17924#ixzz2ny1YUtxH
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Post by allenreed on Dec 19, 2013 19:00:17 GMT -5
San Jose also has a high murder rate. It's gone up alot since Timmy pitched there. I passed through Stockton on a recent motorcycle excursion. It is indeed, a hole. In terms of demographics what do Stockton and San Jose have in common?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 19, 2013 19:17:28 GMT -5
I havent checked in recent years but right around 2005ish, San Jose's per capita murder rate was very low.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Dec 19, 2013 20:29:53 GMT -5
I recently read an article that had it right there with Oakland. If you watch the local news, someone's getting killed there on almost a nightly basis.
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