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Post by sharksrog on Dec 2, 2012 8:47:52 GMT -5
Remember how several posters here complain about the Giants' not giving young players a chance? One of those players was Nate Schierholtz.
And Nate was just non-tendered by the Phillies, making him a free agent. Eligible for arbitration a year ago, Nate received all of $1.3 million last season.
In other words, even though they traded for him -- in part to replace Shane Victorino -- the Phillies don't think all that much of Nate either.
On the other side of the coin, the Phillies signed Kevin Frandsen -- another player mentioned here for not receiving a chance -- to avoid arbitration. Then again, they paid him all of $850 K.
In fairness, Kevin had an excellent season for the Phillies, after playing in the minors all of 2011. Kevin hit .338/.834. Of course that raised his career average to all of .267/.686.
A year ago we were hearing about Matt Downs as the guy who "proved" the Giants didn't give their young players a chance. And Matt HAD had a very good 2011 season, hitting .276/.864.
But small samples just aren't very meaningful. Downs hit all of .202 this past season. His career mark is now .230/.702.
By the way, I wouldn't mind having EITHER of those guys as the Giants' backup utility infielder. But both are players on the fringe of the majors.
Perhaps Frandsen will fully establish himself as a big league player. He has struggled with injuries in the past. But good enough to be a full-time starter? Sorry.
And Don, PLEASE don't tell us how the Giants called Frandsen up right after he had been hit in the head with a pitch. Believe it or not, we picked up on that the 9th time you told us.
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 2, 2012 18:47:58 GMT -5
And Don, PLEASE don't tell us how the Giants called Frandsen up right after he had been hit in the head with a pitch. Believe it or not, we picked up on that the 9th time you told us.
dk..amd you still don't understand the effect this has on hitters....and he got hit on the jaw...
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 3, 2012 0:27:20 GMT -5
dk..amd you still don't understand the effect this has on hitters....and he got hit on the jaw... Rog -- Buster Posey got beaned at San Jose. I do understand the effect it had on HIM. No question Kevin has been hampered by injuries. But to say the Giants didn't give him a chance ignores the facts. He was beaten out in spring training by Manny Burriss, for crying out loud. Of course Manny didn't get a fair shot either, even though he started for two and a half months straight after beating out Frandsen. By the way, how did Manny wind up hitting? You weren't concerned by his extremely low bases per hit. Perhaps you should have been. He kept averaging 1.18 bases per hit as a minor leaguer, even as he hit for a decent average. He has averaged 1.11 in the majors. He is now up to 1.22 in the minors. You often say stats mean nothing, but quite often they have helped to evaluate a player in a manner that helps separate players who have good numbers in the minors and can somewhat sustain them in the majors from those players who can't. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#7792#ixzz2DxlB3HhO |
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 3, 2012 0:35:57 GMT -5
and what did Posey ring up when he had 2 doubles in 100 at bats.....
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 3, 2012 0:40:12 GMT -5
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 3, 2012 14:57:28 GMT -5
As usual, Rog throws out those stats comparisons without any meaning at all...you don't compare Burriss' bases per hits with Posey...Burriss is a 1 or 8 hitter whose job it is to get on base and use his legs to help score runs...Posey is a 4 hitter whose job it is to hit with power and drive in runs...when you have a 4 hitter turning in the same bases per hit as a 1 or 8 hitter, you think that the 4 hitter should be dropped in the order until he gets his power back.....but we are forced to hear from stats Nerds well after the fact that I was wrong...because the next year, the power came back...as long as the pitchers kept throwing him cup cakes.....
and while we are at it, guys like Downs never get the luxury of 100 at bats to see if he could get his power back....Matt was #2 pinch hitter in baseball but ran in some personal problems that caused him to take a leave of absence...he never got back to hitting......of course, the #1 pinch hitter, Sean Burroughs, got released....and while you are at it, stats nerd, the fact that you can second guess after the fact doesn't mean the Giants were right in not giving the guys a chance worthy of the numbers they put up in the minors...
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 3, 2012 18:34:11 GMT -5
Don -- the fact that you can second guess after the fact doesn't mean the Giants were right in not giving the guys a chance worthy of the numbers they put up in the minors... Rog -- I do very little second-tuessing, but I do a lot of first-guessing. Just keep track of them, and see how it works out. It was predictable that most of the guys who failed would do so. I wasn't as confident with Burriss's failing, since I hadn't seen anyone use bases per hit as a predictive measure in extreme cases. But it seemed to make intuitive sense. I have come across others who have used the K/BB/HR method with success, but not the bases per hit thing -- which I think is meaningful only in extreme cases. And Manny was indeed an extreme case. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#7809#ixzz2E2CwI8QF |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 3, 2012 18:36:22 GMT -5
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 4, 2012 0:06:30 GMT -5
Rog, you are really pathetic in the way you try to rewrite history and twist peoples words around to make you sound as if you really know more about baseball compared to tothers on the board...you really know crap outside of the latest twisted stats that have little validity but is the latest craze with the nerd community.....when I bitch about the Giants not giving their farm hands proper handling it is not because I'm a guru who knows the guy can play...but when the guy is on your top minor league team and puts up some good numbers he deserves a chance in the bigs...if not, why have a AAA team...as a rule these teams lose money ...save the money and let the other teams develop the players and you can dig their rejects out of the garbage bin and put him on the field....this has worked for 2 rings and Sabean is out there garbage picking once more....
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2012 13:05:40 GMT -5
Don -- when I bitch about the Giants not giving their farm hands proper handling it is not because I'm a guru who knows the guy can play...but when the guy is on your top minor league team and puts up some good numbers he deserves a chance in the bigs. Rog -- A top prospect such as Posey or Belt doesn't have to produce right away to stay in the lineup. Lesser prospect do. That's just the food chain. The three prospects who got the longest chance to produce without doing so were Burriss, Belt and Schierholtz. Manny got the longest shot of the three, since they really didn't have anyone else. The same was true to a great degree with Belt. Nate got his extended shot because he was red hot for six games and then lived off that for the next month, finally leaving the lineup because he became injured in a collision with the right-center field fence in Colorado. The guy who took advantage of what might otherwise have been a very short shot? Pablo Sandoval. Pablo was called up at the same time as Ryan Rohlinger, yet it was Rohlinger who was given the first shot. Ryan went only 3 for 25 in his first week-plus as a starter. Meanwhile, Pablo was getting intermediate play at first base, behind the plate. He didn't play a lick at third base, but he hit .450 compared to Rohlinger's .120. The next day Pablo was the third baseman. Rohlinger replaced him in the 9th inning as a defensive replacement. Pablo hit in 13 of 14 games, and after his first start at the hot corner, Rohlinger didn't replace Pablo even defensively unless Pablo himself moved to first base. Rohlinger was given the first shot at the hot corner, and didn't produce. Pablo was given the second shot and DID. Pablo went on to become an All-Star. Ryan went on to become a career minor leaguer. Of the young position players the Giants have called up, I underestimated Pablo (which, frankly, I shouldn't have done given his acceptable 59/31/20 K/BB/HR ratio prior to being called up). Thus far I have over-estimated Brandon Belt, although I think in the long run he will show me to be right. The other young guys I have been pretty close on. I remember a discussion we had on the young Freddie Lewis. I was still in the learning stage of my analysis of BABIP, and you made some good points. But when all was said and done, Freddie hit about as I expected. By the way, to call me pathetic is way, way, way beneath you. And any time you want to compare projections for young players between us, I truly welcome it. As a somewhat related aside, I recently read that Gary Brown is no longer considered by the Giants to be on the fast track. Hopefully he will get back on track, but for now, Randy was far too optimistic about Brown, whom he believed would be up at some point last season and would be the Giants' starting center fielder this upcoming season. Brown will be playing in a hitters' park at Fresno, so to be honest, I expect him to have a good year there -- even if he gets off to a slow start as he did at AA Richmond this past season. By 2014 he might be ready to platoon with Gregor Blanco or even start outright. Defensively, I expect Brown to be a whiz. But at the plate I think he will struggle to be average. And, yeah, this is the guy who with a career minor league average of .302/.818. I simply don't like his 176/92/21 K/BB/HR ratio. You pooh-pooh that, but somehow Brown is no longer on the fast track. Perhaps you would like to predict how he will perform in the majors. Or put another way, how did he look to you when he put up .336/.926 at San Jose a year ago? I know that Randy -- who had the advantage of having seen Brown play and who is a pretty good baseball observer -- thought he was a real comer. I just couldn't get past his 77/46 K/BB ratio, although his 14 homers and 13 triples did help out a bit. IMO the less heralded Joe Panik will post a higher major league OPS than Brown -- and that is even though Brown outhit Panik by over 100 points in the AFL. I'm not saying I'm right all the time, Don. What I am saying is that I do better than I did before I started paying attention to K/BB/HR. And I have a pretty good idea how much rope a prospect should be given once he reaches the majors. As I continue to point out in unrefuted fashion, there are very few of these young guys who have gone on to play well elsewhere. Matt Downs had a nice 2011 season -- in 199 at bats. Kevin Frandsen had a VERY nice season in 2012 -- in 195 at bats. But I can't think of a single missed prospect in recent years who hasn't been given a shot with the Giants and then went on to sustain a good career elsewhere. Can you? And your rebuttal that the players would indeed have performed well if just given an early chance is a guess at best. I guess in a way I could say I consider it an honor to be called "pathetic" by you. So, please. Do keep up with the insults. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#7820#ixzz2E6VAMctO |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2012 13:12:08 GMT -5
Don -- save the money and let the other teams develop the players and you can dig their rejects out of the garbage bin and put him on the field....this has worked for 2 rings and Sabean is out there garbage picking once more.... Rog -- Brian has indeed done a very nice job of making lemonade out of other teams' lemons, but clearly it is the Giants' own trees that are growing their best fruit. Want to know why the Giants are a top team? More than anything else, it is because of Buster Posey, Ryan Vogelsong (a former prospect who was brought back off the garbage heap), Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford, Gregor Blanco (another garbage heap pickup), Sergio Romo, and even Brandon Belt. Why, you ask? Because the Giants are getting exceptional value from those players, who are playing at anywhere from a starting level to a superstar level -- and they did it last year for a combined salary of about $15 million. Matt Cain (another guy from the farm system) is a huge contributor. But did the Giants get more for the money they spent on Matt -- or from the two handsfull of guys I mentioned? I presume you were being facetious when you said the Giants shouldn't have a AAA team and instead should save the money? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2E6k8DeFs |
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 4, 2012 16:26:22 GMT -5
and I was very disappointed when the Giants traded away Vogelsong ....I was impressed with him the first time I saw him with the Giants....the Giants were lucky he blew out his arm the first time he pitched for the Pirates.....and even luckier that he recovered just in time to rejoin the Giants when he did....I don't judge players on their stats, I like to see them perform ....although I don't get much of a chance to see them often enough to make aa full judgement on a guy, there are some players that give good first impressions that turn out to be good indicators....I don't know why you insist on talking about stats as the good indicators...I think I have shown you many, many examples of major league players that would have failed your stats tests, but you ignore them....don't you think if there was any validity to your indicators that teams would dump these guys after they had that one bad year that you come up with  there are so many factors that can change a player into a major league player that it is short sighted to declare him a non prospect due to one year in a low minor league....tell me how Blanco ever got another chance after 2011 if someone hasn't seen him in winter ball and decided his stats in the summer didn't mean anything.....I am serious about the Giants getting out of Fresno....maybe it would be better to get them in the INternational League...but it would probably be just as effective to jump the prospects up from AA to the majors......or make an agreement with another team to share a AAA team for the top prospects......I can't understand how playing kids in the heat of Fresno...or even the hitters league in SanJose and the high heat cities they play in is good training to come to SF... |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2012 21:05:42 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2012 21:12:55 GMT -5
Don -- I don't know why you insist on talking about stats as the good indicators... Rog -- Because, if interpreted properly, they are? Don --I think I have shown you many, many examples of major league players that would have failed your stats tests, but you ignore them.. Rog -- I don't ignore them at all. In fact, I acknowledge them. It's just that you like to take some exceptions and use them to disprove the rule. Virtually no general rule works all the time, whether it be statistical or scouting. It is almost unanimously agreed now that the combination of the two is better than either alone. When we first started posting, very few teams had statistical analysts. Now, virtually all of them -- including the Giants -- do. And I doubt that any team expects stats to be a good indicator all the time. But given the disparity of thinking among scouts, stats can help keep things in focus. John Schierholtz, the fine former GM of the Braves, said that the key to deciding on players was deciphering between all the different scouting reports, which often were in conflict with each other. I suspect that he would agree that stats would help in that decision. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2E8h1gUA9 |
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Post by allenreed on Dec 22, 2012 15:28:11 GMT -5
Don -- I was very disappointed when the Giants traded away Vogelsong ....I was impressed with him the first time I saw him with the Giants Rog -- I was too, although I'll admit I didn't really have a system for evaluating prospects back then. Mostly, I just liked the way he looked. Allen- When I found out they got Jason Schmidt for him, I was delighted. What a steal. Then Vogey blew out his arm and I believe Armando Rios (the other Giant in the deal) blew out his knee in his second game as a Buc. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 24, 2012 1:25:39 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 24, 2012 1:31:40 GMT -5
Don -- and while we are at it, guys like Downs never get the luxury of 100 at bats to see if he could get his power back Rog -- NO team in the majors will give Matt Downs 100 straight at bats. He just isn't good enough. I could see a situation in which a team were desperate due to injury or something, but even then, they would likely have Matt share time with someone else. I remember seeing Matt playing third base at San Jose in the 2008 playoffs. I said to my son something like, see that guy at third base? Nothing wrong with the way he plays the game, but he just isn't good enough. Hey, I could have been wrong. But I wasn't. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2FwqPgT6F |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 24, 2012 1:44:13 GMT -5
tell me how Blanco ever got another chance after 2011 if someone hasn't seen him in winter ball and decided his stats in the summer didn't mean anything Rog -- Aren't you kind of proving my point, Don? Maybe you weren't impressed with his .201 average in the minors in 2011, but I liked his 50/44 K/BB ratio. Gregor is a guy who can -- as pointed out early last season -- add close to 100 points to his batting average in search of a high OPS. As you point out, Gregor did do extremely well in winter ball a winter ago, and clearly caught the eye of a Giant scout(s). Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2FwrsniTt |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 24, 2012 1:54:50 GMT -5
Don -- when the guy is on your top minor league team and puts up some good numbers he deserves a chance in the bigs. Rog -- Of course he does. And I can tell you in advance most of the players who will take advantage and those who won't. Aside from not giving Pablo Sandoval enough credit (and you're got to admit he's one of the weirdest hitters in Giants history), which players can you think of that I've missed on? If Brandon Belt doesn't get a fair amount better, I will have missed on him. But I still think he will become at least an average first baseman at bat, a good base runner for a guy with little more than average speed, and a very fine fielder. By the way, for all Brandon's struggles last season, his .781 OPS was behind the full-season stats of only Buster Posey, Melky Cabrera and Pablo Sandoval among all Giants hitters. And he was only 8 points behind Pablo. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2Fwv6KX4z |
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 24, 2012 17:00:30 GMT -5
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[ Exalt | Smite ] Re: Nate non-tendered
« Reply #15 Today at 1:25am »
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Don -- As usual, Rog throws out those stats comparisons without any meaning at all...you don't compare Burriss' bases per hits with Posey
Rog -- I have to laugh on this one, Don. It was YOU who compared Buster's (lack of) extra base hits with Manny's. Why in the world would I -- or anyone not biased against Buster -- make such a ridiculous comparison?
dk...I used that stat as an argument to replace Posey as a cleanup hitter......and there was nothing rediculous about it if you wanted to win.....yes, he got better...after his injury, but why not take the pressure off him while he was having trouble hitting the ball out of the infield....Bochy is noted for moving players around...he sure took Pagan out of the middle of the lineup when he didn't produce....
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 0:33:17 GMT -5
Rog -- I have to laugh on this one, Don. It was YOU who compared Buster's (lack of) extra base hits with Manny's. Why in the world would I -- or anyone not biased against Buster -- make such a ridiculous comparison? dk...I used that stat as an argument to replace Posey as a cleanup hitter...... Rog -- The point is that you used it at all. And you were wrong, as well. Then again, that's not surprising, given your argument. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1394#ixzz2G8Jt1p3i |
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 26, 2012 2:20:04 GMT -5
how was I wrong, he went 100 plate appearance with 2 doubles......something rather lame for a 4 hitter...
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 13:17:44 GMT -5
You were wrong, Don, IMO because you said Buster should be hitting 6th against southpaws and 7th against right-handers. I don't think it has worked out quite that way.
I understand your point that you believe you were talking short-term, but you didn't make that clear.
And even if you did, sometimes it can be important with a young player to continue to show your confidence in him in order to have things work out best in the long-term.
That would seem to be pretty much what the Giants did -- and it resulted in the NL MVP.
Just admit it when you're wrong, and if you don't think you were wrong here, simply remain silent on the matter, and we will recognize your position.
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 26, 2012 15:18:37 GMT -5
I wasn't wrong then and I'm not wrong today...Bochy changes his lineup every time he gets gas on his stomach...he was quick to move other young players in and out of the lineup, up and down in the batting order and from position to position...I saw nothing wrong in moving Posey the same as you were quick to belittle other prospects for the same performance in the bigs.....you never thought it wrong to move Belt or to get rid of Burriss, etc. for putting up the same poor stats...an old saying goes something like...it depends on whose ox is being gored....you take great glee in knocking a kid who had one bad stat (your comment, not mine) in the low minors but you are aghast when someone picks on one of your boys.....you were all over Crawford and put up some smart guy attitude when I predicted he would eventially "hit" when he was below .200....I know you have failed to notice that he hit .281 in August and .288 in Sep./Oct....not too shabby....and it should get even better when he matures......but you are the same guy that had a fit when I said to stop talking HOF about Tim as there were many pitchers that had great starts and slipped just as fast....and you also had a great snit when I pointed out the short-comings of Buster as a catcher....and the fact that no matter what some of the pitchers say about Buster in public, their body language indicated to me that they didn't like pitching to him.....and your favorite fielding nerds didn't rate Buster too high with the mitt....
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 23:49:24 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 23:52:15 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 23:56:36 GMT -5
Don -- I know you have failed to notice that he hit .281 in August and .288 in Sep./Oct. Rog -- This is one big problem I have with you. You try to put words in my mouth, and your words often make me look dumb. You absolutely, positively DON'T know that I failed to notice that Brandon hit well in August and September. In fact, I have mentioned right here on the board his hitting improvement last last season. Yet you didn't say you THOUGHT I didn't know (which would simply mean you had missed my post to the contrary); you said unoquivocally that you KNEW I didn't notice it. You should pay closer attention, and you shouldn't state facts that aren't. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2GE0RN2WW |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 26, 2012 23:59:12 GMT -5
Don -- you are the same guy that had a fit when I said to stop talking HOF about Tim as there were many pitchers that had great starts and slipped just as fast. Rog -- You have written that I have already put Tim in the Hall of Fame. That is a figment of your imagination. What I wrote was that he still had a long way to go, but he was off to a Hall of Fame START to his career. What I wrote was correct. What you wrote was incorrect. Please pay attention, better understand what is written, and remember things more accurately. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1394&page=1#ixzz2GE1Zh6Lv |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 27, 2012 0:05:15 GMT -5
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donk
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Post by donk on Dec 27, 2012 13:58:36 GMT -5
Don -- your favorite fielding nerds didn't rate Buster too high with the mitt.... Rog -- Really? The fielding ratings Bill James referenced this year had Buster ranked as #5 behind the dish. No other Giant was ranked as high, and the only other player ranked in the top 10 was Brandon Crawford as the #9 shortstop. We want facts instead of mistakes, Don. Thanks. dk...he was rated 5th because of his all around ability, he wasn't in the top 10 as a fielder.....lets both reread what was said.... |
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there are so many factors that can change a player into a major league player that it is short sighted to declare him a non prospect due to one year in a low minor league....tell me how Blanco ever got another chance after 2011 if someone hasn't seen him in winter ball and decided his stats in the summer didn't mean anything.....I am serious about the Giants getting out of Fresno....maybe it would be better to get them in the INternational League...but it would probably be just as effective to jump the prospects up from AA to the majors......or make an agreement with another team to share a AAA 