A day late...

[klaiggeb]

I was going to post this yesterday, but after my round of golf, I flat out forgot.

For months now we keep hearing about Harrison being our top pitching prospect.

For a couple of weeks now I've been thinking about that, and I have to say, I disagree, and not by just a little.

What I was going to post yesterday long before his start was that I see Winn as the better prospect and with a much higher upside.

Why?

Glad you asked.

Let's start with pure stuff. Winn's is better. And not by just a little.

More velocity, more movement, a bigger cache of pitches with sharper action.

He is also much more polished and with better command of the strike zone.

Remember, I was going to post this yesterday, BEFORE his start.

And after last night, I feel even more strongly so.

I contend Winn will have a better, longer career because his stuff is so much better.



Sadly, I fear Harrison is going to have a career like Timmy's.

High, short time success followed by a quick flame out because he DOESN'T have the stuff to compliment his fastball which is relatively straight.

And though his change up is decent and improving, as is his breaking stuff, it's not enough to sustain him or catapult him into that a top of the rotation kind of guy.

He'll live with that "top of the zone" heater for a while, but when he loses that...whatever it is that gets him by with a low 90's fastball, he'll have to pitch.

And he lacks the stuff and command to do that.

Unlike Timmy, who had MUCH BETTER STUFF and more velocity, Harrison's mechanics are sound.

But IMHO, you need more than that.

[pachyderm]

Interesting take.

[klaiggeb]

Harrison gets so much hype, and though some of it is deserved, from watching him pitch every game...IMHO, it's too much.

Pach, those on the board know I pitched in college and against some semi pros, and future Major Leaguers, like Bruce Benedict and Greg Luzinski.

I also coached High School and American Legion baseball.

Here's what I've learned; Fastballs that AREN'T in the high 90's and that DON'T have good movement become very hittable when a player gets a few years on his arm. Especially when they are not located well.

That's how Reuter did so well. Pin point control.

Harrison doesn't have that. His ball is not string-straight, but close.

Winn's has excellent movement, and really good sink.

Harrison really is ONLY effective at the top of the zone.

Elsewhere, he's hittable.

I mean, look at the HRs he gives up.

Way toooooooo many.

With no movement and only low to mid 90's, hitters can sit on that fastball and bash it.

Which they do.

His change MAY be really good someday, and what THAT days comes I'll change my stance on him.

His off speed stuff is another work in progress and his bash-able. Too often it just rolls up there.

Winn's slider is sharp.

And his splitter? As Conforto said on the post game show, unhittable.

[Islandboagie]

Hitters aren't hitting Harrison's fastball well, they're hitting his off speed pitches.

I like Keaton Winn and he's pitching better than I couldve predicted, but Winn is 26, Harrison is still only 22. Those off speed pitches will come with time.

[klaiggeb]

I understand, boagie, and that is my point. Harrison really only has that one pitch, it doesn't move, and it's not that high velocity.

As he ages, that velocity will slow down as will the "carry" everyone says the pitch has.


Winn has learned so much since last season and it shows!

His slider is sharp, his locating his fastball to all quadrants and is PITCHING, not throwing like he did last year.

I see a huge upside for him, I don't care about his age.