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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 10, 2023 11:33:52 GMT -5
Though both of these guys sound like top notch players... I don't get too excited over MLB drafts because they are years away.
I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got...
And when I finally got to see him play, below average power, below average speed, below average range, I remember thinking... "THIS is what all the commotion was about?"
Besides that, these 2, albeit BIG kids... have not even played college ball!
They're High School kids with high school emotions and high school personalities.
I also wonder about their competition.
College is big time competition, High School? Not so much.
I've coached 2 high school pitchers whom I thought were big time prospects.... and I had LOTS of questions about what was going on between their ears.
And neither panned out to be any thing more than adequate college players.
Right now they "appear" to be solid picks... but I'll reserve judgment and opinion about drafting them after they've had a couple of years in the system.
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Post by Islandboagie on Jul 10, 2023 11:59:13 GMT -5
I get excited when a high schooler gets drafted in the first round. That means he's a big talent.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 10, 2023 13:10:30 GMT -5
Just a reminder that Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were drafted by the Giants out of high school. Those two did not work out too shabby.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 10, 2023 13:27:53 GMT -5
Martin was linked to the Giants as a possible first rounder so to grab him on the second round is good. He's a two sport athlete with size and power. Whitman was projected by some analysts to go late first round so that was a good pick, also.
The limiting factor is the bonus slot money. Giants have $9.9 million available and the bulk of the bonus money will go to the two high schoolers. Whitman being a college junior would have the least amount of leverage.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 10, 2023 13:41:54 GMT -5
Though both of these guys sound like top notch players... I don't get too excited over MLB drafts because they are years away.
I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got...
And when I finally got to see him play, below average power, below average speed, below average range, I remember thinking... "THIS is what all the commotion was about?"
Besides that, these 2, albeit BIG kids... have not even played college ball!
They're High School kids with high school emotions and high school personalities.
I also wonder about their competition.
College is big time competition, High School? Not so much.
I've coached 2 high school pitchers whom I thought were big time prospects.... and I had LOTS of questions about what was going on between their ears.
And neither panned out to be any thing more than adequate college players.
Right now they "appear" to be solid picks... but I'll reserve judgment and opinion about drafting them after they've had a couple of years in the system. ON whenthegiantscometotown, one post said that being a two way player, Eldridge has two shots at becoming a major leaguer as either a first baseman or a pitcher. I've read reports that favor both opinions that he would be more of a hitter or a pitcher. Supposedly, he has a smooth, repeatable pitching delivery and, as a hitter, has a powerful compact swing. I have a feeling he's a bright kid. Looking on the youtube videos of him, he looks like he has some command problems. |
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Post by Islandboagie on Jul 10, 2023 16:21:16 GMT -5
Well he's only 18, command problems are pretty standard at that age. It will be interesting to see if the Giants let him remain a two way player or make him choose one. I think Ohtani has done a lot to kill that myth that you can't do it at the big league level.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 10, 2023 18:30:57 GMT -5
Keith Law feels that he probably won't be a two way player. Eldridge has a nice compact swing for a player of that height and has an ankle injury which might affect his pitching. Law said that Eldridge doesn't have feel to spin the ball so he projects to be a right fielder. Supposedly, doing the Ohtani two way is very demanding on the body and I would be surprised if it worked on a regular basis.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 10, 2023 18:38:43 GMT -5
Though both of these guys sound like top notch players... I don't get too excited over MLB drafts because they are years away.
I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got...
And when I finally got to see him play, below average power, below average speed, below average range, I remember thinking... "THIS is what all the commotion was about?"
Besides that, these 2, albeit BIG kids... have not even played college ball!
They're High School kids with high school emotions and high school personalities.
I also wonder about their competition.
College is big time competition, High School? Not so much.
I've coached 2 high school pitchers whom I thought were big time prospects.... and I had LOTS of questions about what was going on between their ears.
And neither panned out to be any thing more than adequate college players.
Right now they "appear" to be solid picks... but I'll reserve judgment and opinion about drafting them after they've had a couple of years in the system. Law said MArtin was drafted as a hitter first, power hitter second. We have to be cautious about getting exicted about his power numbers becuse his high school is in COlorado, which we know that skews power numbers up. Before the draft, Melissa Lockard felt that the Giants would draft eight Eldridge or Martin with the 16th pick and I was surprised to see them draft both. |
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Post by Islandboagie on Jul 10, 2023 19:10:26 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe they'd draft a high school 1st baseman unless he was putting up ridiculous numbers, which he wasn't. I believe his pitching is why they signed him.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 11, 2023 10:37:10 GMT -5
Rounds 3 through 10 were a lot harder to evaluate. Mccovey Chronicles has a good rundown and said that Four of the eight choices were in the top 200 prospects and they took two more shortstops. Just because. Maui Ahuna is intriguing since he was a potential first rounder last year and is a plus defender. He needs to learn bat control. Foster is another middle infield depth piece so we can pretty much see where this is going.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 11, 2023 10:55:38 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe they'd draft a high school 1st baseman unless he was putting up ridiculous numbers, which he wasn't. I believe his pitching is why they signed him. Brisbee made a comparison to Aaron Judge. Tall guys usually have long uncontrolled swings but Eldridge already has a compact swing that generates the exit velocity that one would expect from a tall guy. Maybe its better for them to draft their own version of Judge rather than to pay through the nose for the real Aaron Judge at 30 to 40 years old. By the same token, maybe its better for them to develop their own version of Ohtani in Crawford or Eldridge rather than shell out $500 million for the Angels' star. Shohei is now 29 years old and being a two way player is hard on the body and will likely be much harder as he gets older. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 11, 2023 11:40:50 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe they'd draft a high school 1st baseman unless he was putting up ridiculous numbers, which he wasn't. I believe his pitching is why they signed him.
It does seem that my comments have been taken out of context.
I never said, nor do I believe, these were bad or foolish picks.
What I said was:
Though both of these guys sound like top notch players... I don't get too excited over MLB drafts because they are years away.
I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got...
And when I finally got to see him play, below average power, below average speed, below average range, I remember thinking... "THIS is what all the commotion was about?"
Besides that, these 2, albeit BIG kids... have not even played college ball!
They're High School kids with high school emotions and high school personalities.
I also wonder about their competition.
College is big time competition, High School? Not so much.
Someone mentioned that both Bum and Cain were signed out of high school. I had forgotten that, but honestly, coming up with two names begs the question: How many OTHER HS picks DIDN'T make it to the show.
I would be willing to bet that most, and by a large margin, do not. |
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Post by reedonly on Jul 11, 2023 15:07:01 GMT -5
I believe the other one was Ryder Jones
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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 11, 2023 16:39:59 GMT -5
I believe the other one was Ryder Jones
But I didn't just mean Giant high school picks, I meant HS picks for all teams in general.
I don't care where you play, the competition in HS isn't even close to college competition. |
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Post by reedonly on Jul 11, 2023 18:13:40 GMT -5
It is true that college draftees tend to be more successful at making the majors and playing for more than 3 years. However, SABR did some research into this and found the difference is about 15%. The situation presents differently for each kid because if the high schooler opts to go to college, they have to wait three years to enter the draft (unless they went to a JC) but those three years can be used to improve their draft standing. The high schooler has more leverage in bargaining, especially if they have a commitment to a top notch school. One argument for drafting the high schooler is that the organization has a bit more control over things like conditioning and pitch counts. All that being said, the high schooler is about 15% more risky than drafting a college player but the ceiling might be higher. It depends on the player and as boagie mentioned earlier, the player must be good if drafted out of high school.
Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones probably would not have been drafted by the Giants if the 2013 draft were held today, mainly because with advances in the internet and youtube, there is more sharing and cross checking of information at more levels. The 2023 draft was the deepest in position players in many years but there seemed to be a general consensus about who the top players were and the Giants' top three picks seem to be liked by most websites.
If the 2013 draft were held today, no way Arroyo would have been drafted ahead of Aaron Judge (especially with the Fresno State connection) and Jones would not have been drafted ahead of Cody Bellinger (or Mike Yastrzemski for that matter). I heard about Eldridge and Martin ahead of the draft and most of the websites seem to agree so I think these picks are solid.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 11, 2023 20:52:38 GMT -5
That's really very interesting, and I hadn't been aware of many of the things you mentioned.
It'll be interesting to see if these big dudes actually make it. Thanks for sharing what you shared,Reed.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 11, 2023 21:19:22 GMT -5
I learned a lot about this stuff this year from whenthegiantscometotown. the slot money is a big deal because it serves as an equalizer. In the past, the Giants' MO was to nickel and dime the first pick and save up more money for the later rounds. It worked by being stingy with Patrick Bailey, they were able to sign Kyle Harrison and keep him from going to college. I think they will not be able to get away with signing Eldridge and Martin for under slot bonuses because both are high schoolers. In the past, the Giants have usually gone after the "safe" pick and got burned but this year they swung away for the fences.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 12, 2023 14:21:19 GMT -5
I noticed that the later rounds had a number of catchers and shortstops. Probably to be used as trade fodder, not necessarily to stay in the organization.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 17, 2023 14:00:57 GMT -5
Boly: But I didn't just mean Giant high school picks, I meant HS picks for all teams in general.
I don't care where you play, the competition in HS isn't even close to college competition.
SABR recently did a study of first round picks. 66.7% of first round picks made the majors. Of that 66.7%, it was broken down to 13% HS PItchers, 14% were HS position, 22% were college pitchers, 17% were college position. When they extend it to three years of MLB service, it was 46.8%, 7.6% were HS pitchers, 10.5% HS position, 15.6% College pitchers, 13.1% college position. This study did not take into account the impact the player might have had when they made the majors or how long it took to get to the majors but it does show that the draft does have a high failure rate and the college players tend to have a higher floor.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 18, 2023 12:27:05 GMT -5
Boly: I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got...
I remember the Arroyo pick and I went "Whaaat?". He was just a kid back then and the high school video of him displayed a very awkward swing. I don't understand what they were thinking at the time. Even Jones seems to have a smoother swing than Arroyo. Apparently the Red Sox still think Arroyo has some untapped potential which was not realized due to the multiple injuries he has had but to be honest, he only has a job because most of the rest of the Red Sox second basemen are sub-Mendoza Line.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 18, 2023 12:31:20 GMT -5
I remember Jones and his swing very well. I liked his swing. Of course that doesn't translate into good results
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Post by reedonly on Jul 18, 2023 15:29:05 GMT -5
Surprisingly, they announced this morning that Eldridge signed for a little under slot value so that gives them extra flexibility further down in the draft.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 19, 2023 8:39:41 GMT -5
I remember Jones and his swing very well. I liked his swing. Of course that doesn't translate into good results Jones now probably regrets not going to Stanford. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Jul 19, 2023 13:51:11 GMT -5
Quick and easy money changes the way people think.
At least, that's been my experience.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 19, 2023 22:49:25 GMT -5
17 out of 20 have signed. The Highest unsigned is Maui Ahuna.
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Post by reedonly on Jul 27, 2023 16:30:14 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe they'd draft a high school 1st baseman unless he was putting up ridiculous numbers, which he wasn't. I believe his pitching is why they signed him. They are shutting him down as a pitcher for the rest of this year and the plan is to use him in structional league as a right fielder first, then ramp up the pitching side at a later date. |
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Post by reedonly on Aug 5, 2023 9:11:15 GMT -5
Boly: I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got... I remember the Arroyo pick and I went "Whaaat?". He was just a kid back then and the high school video of him displayed a very awkward swing. I don't understand what they were thinking at the time. Even Jones seems to have a smoother swing than Arroyo. Apparently the Red Sox still think Arroyo has some untapped potential which was not realized due to the multiple injuries he has had but to be honest, he only has a job because most of the rest of the Red Sox second basemen are sub-Mendoza Line. Arroyo just got DFA by the Sox. One poster on another board thinks the Giants should sign him if he clears waivers but he does not have any minor league options left so he doesn't fit unless they can carry him on the 26 man roster. With Thairo coming back, Arroyo does not make sense. |
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 5, 2023 17:29:51 GMT -5
Totally agree, he doesn't. Invite him to spring next year if he's still available.
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Post by pachyderm on Aug 6, 2023 4:17:13 GMT -5
Boly: I remember only too well the year we drafted Arroyo and the hype he and another guy got... I remember the Arroyo pick and I went "Whaaat?". He was just a kid back then and the high school video of him displayed a very awkward swing. I don't understand what they were thinking at the time. Even Jones seems to have a smoother swing than Arroyo. Apparently the Red Sox still think Arroyo has some untapped potential which was not realized due to the multiple injuries he has had but to be honest, he only has a job because most of the rest of the Red Sox second basemen are sub-Mendoza Line. Arroyo just got DFA by the Sox. One poster on another board thinks the Giants should sign him if he clears waivers but he does not have any minor league options left so he doesn't fit unless they can carry him on the 26 man roster. With Thairo coming back, Arroyo does not make sense. FZ loves weak hitting middle infielders though... |
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Post by reedonly on Aug 6, 2023 8:13:03 GMT -5
FZ likes players with options so he can churn them up and down to Sacramento as needed.
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