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Post by reedonly on Oct 5, 2022 15:51:08 GMT -5
NBC sports just ran an article about Chaim Bloom, the GM of Boston. The way it was written, it could have been written about FZ but I think their farm is probably not as well stocked as SF's.
Bloom seems to hoard prospects and the feeling is that some prospects should be used to obtain big league talent via trade.
Second, Bloom seems to churn on the margins (sound familiar?) but the author of the piece felt that the ratio should be 2 budget signing for 1 major impact one. I felt the ratio was about 4 to 1.
Third, act quickly. Better selection in December than in February.
The trickiest thing would be to identify which prospects are keepers and which are not.
I was one of the ones who wanted Bloom instead of Farhan but I think that the results would have been the same. They seem to have exactly the same mindset because both GMs hoard prospects, churn the margins, and are plodders. The actual first choice of the giants was the Milwaukee guy and looking at this year, they've regressed as well. It could be that the gap between the sabermetric GMs and the others has narrowed because everyone is using stats and advanced metrics now. Its going to go back to identifying, obtaining,and developing talent.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 5, 2022 17:43:52 GMT -5
Our perhaps come up putting so much faith in saber metrics doesn't really work
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 5, 2022 20:06:10 GMT -5
Well come up what I said was not what my stupid phone typed.
What I was trying to say is that perhaps, is many of us suspected, putting the majority of your faith in supermatrix is nuts
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 5, 2022 20:06:56 GMT -5
Stupid phone didn't write what I said.
What I was trying to say was that perhaps all of those people have put so much of their faith in saber metrics, I'm afraid of a while ago I'll come as I suspected, missing a lot of the game, and causes them to make many mistakes.
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Post by reedonly on Oct 5, 2022 21:06:59 GMT -5
The moves in July and August were the most puzzling. Nowadays, scouting reports are all over the internet by google search and fangraphs and baseball reference have all the stats anyone would every need. it seemed they did not go with the scouting reports and it also seemed they ignored basic statistics. I think what they were doing was going for players by position and then honing in on specific stats but not seeing the whole picture. For example, they went after Padlo who has a poor scouting report, bad stats all around, strikes out a lot, but has power. Or Walton, who was considered low ceiling, graded out on the scouting report as a bench bat, fangraphs grades him out as a poor hitter and a poor fielder. Its as if they threw scouting AND sabermetrics out the window if they ignore all this information. All of this information, including scouting reports, videos, and stats is now available to everyone, so this includes old school scouting and sabermetrics.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2022 10:17:58 GMT -5
Stupid phone didn't write what I said. What I was trying to say was that perhaps all of those people have put so much of their faith in saber metrics, I'm afraid of a while ago I'll come as I suspected, missing a lot of the game, and causes them to make many mistakes. I think that in and of itself, sabremetrics can be a good tool as long as the user understands it. When they start to make weird permutations is where it starts to fall apart. I am skeptical of things like PECOTA (of which there are multiple permutations) and I question the use of launch angles and exit velocities if they have to tweak a batter so much that it messes up his swing. I think the current regime is focusing too much on certain micostats (such as "high exit velocity off of lefthanded sliders) and not enough on basic stats like (OBA and whip). Take Yaz for example. I think that opposing pitchers have found a hole in his swing and then the coaches worked with him on a way to uppercut more to increase his launch angle. Problem was that it threw his natural rhythm out of whack. The team might be better served if the powers that be take a step back every once in a while. I would say that they are not using sabermetrics but it looks like they focus on one little corner of the spreadsheet and think its definitive. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 13, 2022 14:07:26 GMT -5
Stupid phone didn't write what I said. What I was trying to say was that perhaps all of those people have put so much of their faith in saber metrics, I'm afraid of a while ago I'll come as I suspected, missing a lot of the game, and causes them to make many mistakes. I think that in and of itself, sabremetrics can be a good tool as long as the user understands it. When they start to make weird permutations is where it starts to fall apart. I am skeptical of things like PECOTA (of which there are multiple permutations) and I question the use of launch angles and exit velocities if they have to tweak a batter so much that it messes up his swing. I think the current regime is focusing too much on certain micostats (such as "high exit velocity off of lefthanded sliders) and not enough on basic stats like (OBA and whip). Take Yaz for example. I think that opposing pitchers have found a hole in his swing and then the coaches worked with him on a way to uppercut more to increase his launch angle. Problem was that it threw his natural rhythm out of whack. The team might be better served if the powers that be take a step back every once in a while. I would say that they are not using sabermetrics but it looks like they focus on one little corner of the spreadsheet and think its definitive.
Baseball is more than numbers. So very much more.
Then again, I argued this with Roger and he never, EVER understood that point so, based upon that, I would assume most saber-metric guys are like that.
A presumption, I know, but that's what it seems like.
As this launch angle concept may have screwed Yaz up badly, so your speculation on that, IMHO, could be a bullseye |
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Post by reedonly on Dec 13, 2022 16:37:06 GMT -5
I think that in and of itself, sabremetrics can be a good tool as long as the user understands it. When they start to make weird permutations is where it starts to fall apart. I am skeptical of things like PECOTA (of which there are multiple permutations) and I question the use of launch angles and exit velocities if they have to tweak a batter so much that it messes up his swing. I think the current regime is focusing too much on certain micostats (such as "high exit velocity off of lefthanded sliders) and not enough on basic stats like (OBA and whip). Take Yaz for example. I think that opposing pitchers have found a hole in his swing and then the coaches worked with him on a way to uppercut more to increase his launch angle. Problem was that it threw his natural rhythm out of whack. The team might be better served if the powers that be take a step back every once in a while. I would say that they are not using sabermetrics but it looks like they focus on one little corner of the spreadsheet and think its definitive.
Baseball is more than numbers. So very much more.
Then again, I argued this with Roger and he never, EVER understood that point so, based upon that, I would assume most saber-metric guys are like that.
A presumption, I know, but that's what it seems like.
As this launch angle concept may have screwed Yaz up badly, so your speculation on that, IMHO, could be a bullseyeI think the reason why the sabremetric guys are so stubborn is that they tend to think in numbers and if its numbers, it is factual. However, even the players' union does not want sabermetrics tied to salaries because there are too many versions of sabremetric stats such as win shares, wins created, PECOTA, and so forth. The owners could conceivably pick and choose whichever version of stat that suits them. FZ has a degree in statistics and he probably thinks in absolutes more than the average person. FZ has done so poorly that even rog would have problem defending him but I think its a not a good idea to test that theory. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 13, 2022 18:35:04 GMT -5
I didn't know that the player's union wasn't into the saber-metrics stuff. But it makes sense. Tying salaries to numbers like that? heck, if I was a player I'd be against it, too.
Numbers are factual... but only to a point. Not that you can make 3+3 not 6. I don't mean that at all.
But baseball is fluid. It's in motion in many aspects. There is an intellectual side; a side where decisions on the field have to be made in split seconds.
Where injuries play a factor. Where the weather plays a factor. To break that down to just numbers is, in a word, assinnine.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 14, 2022 11:43:12 GMT -5
There are at least four versions of WAR and a couple of iterations of PECOTA that don't always come to the same conclusions. It think I remember last year during the lockout, there was a discussion about how sabermetrics could be twisted. The players union used Robbie Ray or Stroman as an example and ran several versions of WAR on them and two were favorable, 1 was average, and 1 was unfavorable. So the point is, sometimes these guys who are so hooked up on the sabremetrics can come to conclusions based on whichever stat suits their agenda.
What made a manager like Bochy so valuable was that whether or not he knew it, with his experience, he could sort through all that, incorporate current conditions, then come up with a solution. People who don't understand the game might say it is "gut" but its more of a reaction that is a sum of all the things he has learned in all of his years in baseball. Bochy himself might be too modest to admit it but it is the next level that sabremetrics does not understand.
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Post by reedonly on Sept 14, 2023 16:48:29 GMT -5
Bloom just got fired.
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Post by reedonly on Sept 15, 2023 7:36:14 GMT -5
When Slusser and Johnson were talking about Bloom. Because of similar timeline and since Bloom uses sabermetrics like FZ and Kapler do, the question turned to FZ and GK. Johnson said both will be here for 2024. 🤮
FZ is guilty of a lot of stuff but he is not guilty of trading an MVP talent to the Dodgers. That being said, unless they get some sort of an extension in the off season, they might be lame duck status for 2024.
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Post by reedonly on Sept 15, 2023 17:24:08 GMT -5
FZ was on KNBR and was asked if he and Kapler were a package deal. The answer was that there was some joint responsibility. I'm thinking that 2024 should be make or break for them.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 15, 2023 19:51:48 GMT -5
I would rather break, but I have a feeling we're going to win a lot of games next year
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