Free agent pitchers

[sharksrog]

If we look at this year's free agent pitchers, not surprisingly, they all had flaws.

Max Scherzer was the best. Max's next stop may be the Hall of Fame. But he's got a lot of mileage on his arm, he's 37, and his arm gave out this past postseason. Still, Max was paid 3/$130 million.

Justin Verlander is even older, and he's coming off arm surgery. 2/$50 seems like a lot of risk.

Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. But prior to that, he had been inconsistent. 5/$115.

Kevin Gausman was also very good last season, and he began to build when he signed with the Giants in 2020. But he had a poor second half which might have been attributable to the crackdown on sticky stuff. 5/$110.

Marcus Stroman has been a consistent pitcher. I would say he has been underrated. But 3/$71 with a 2/$50 opt out is a tough contract for the signing team.

Carlos Rodon is a potential stud. But he's been an unhealthy stud. Color me intrigued.

Clayton Kershaw may be the best regular season starter never to pitch in the dead ball era. But his arm finally gave out last season. Can he bounce back? He isn't what he used to be, but he has remade himself and has still been very good. Color me interested if he's healthy. Won't come cheaply though unless he's still got arm problems.

Jon Gray was intriguing until he went 6.55 in August and 7.15 in September. A career 4.59 can be partially excused by pitching in Colorado, but still, is he more than a #3 pitcher? 4/$56 seems really steep.

Steven Matz had a good season last year, but he has a 4.24 career ERA. 4/$44 seems high for a guy who has been a #3 pitcher.

Then there are Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Alex Cobb. I was interested in all three, and I'm excited that the Giants signed them for much less combined than the biggest pitching contracts singly.

When one looks at all these guys, it wouldn't be hard to say the Giants got three of the top five or six deals. And avoided the ones with the most risk.

Perhaps that puts them in a good position to take a risk with Rodon.

[reedonly]

Rodon might be a guy who gets a team over the top but a problem with Rodon is a lot of other clubs are also interested and might bid Rodon into expensive range. Seattle, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees have been kicking the tires. For a guy whose highest IP in last few years of 132, if it gets to be over 2 years or Aav over $12, they would have to make sure this isn't money that could prevent them from spending in the future. Also, in his comp list are Erik Bedard, Noah Lowry, and Trevor Wilson.  So my verdict on Rodon is that he would be worth going for if, and only if, the price was reasonable abut I think he's going to get his money and end up on the Yankees' IL.  

[reedonly]

since the free agent market for pitching is so tenuous and expensive, maybe they should consider going after one of the big hitters like Correa or Freeman.

[klaiggeb]

Dec 16, 2021 10:03:09 GMT -5 reedonly said:

Rodon might be a guy who gets a team over the top but a problem with Rodon is a lot of other clubs are also interested and might bid Rodon into expensive range. Seattle, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees have been kicking the tires. For a guy whose highest IP in last few years of 132, if it gets to be over 2 years or Aav over $12, they would have to make sure this isn't money that could prevent them from spending in the future. Also, in his comp list are Erik Bedard, Noah Lowry, and Trevor Wilson.  So my verdict on Rodon is that he would be worth going for if, and only if, the price was reasonable abut I think he's going to get his money and end up on the Yankees' IL.  

At this point, injury history or not, Rodon might be the ONLY arm out there who 'could' put this group back in the playoff hunt again next year.

I mean, seriously... even after the SP holes, this team is on shaky ground.

Why?

1-At his age I seriously doubt Crawford will come close to what he did this year.

2-Longoria and Ruff are 36, and Longoria simply can't stay on the field.

3-Belt, who appears finally on the verge of becoming what we all thought he would become... is constantly hurt.

4-Posey's absence will hurt in 2 areas, the biggest of which is defense.

5-I'm glad Solano and his rock hard hands are gone, but will they really give Estrada a chance to platoon with La Stella? And by that I mean, if he struggles, will they really stick with him?

6-Farhan and the writers might be happy with our bullpen, but I am not.

I contend that many of the good years they had were flukes. Especially Leone, Garcia and Littell.

Just my opinion.

[reedonly]

One thing that was "bad" about winning 107 games last year was that it might have put the development of the organization off track. A more natural trajectory would have been to start competing for the playoffs in 2022. Now they have to satisfy a fanbase that will not be satisfied with anything less than an NL West championship.

[sharksrog]

Boly, you are right to see that the Giants are likely in for a big fall -- and you delineated the reasons why pretty well. But even without a single added addition -- and there will be more -- the Giants should already be in the playoff hunt. The Giants could likely fall by 20 games and still be strongly in the playoff hunt.

They probably lose three or four games with Crawford and perhaps two or three more with Longoria and Ruf. Maybe a game with Belt, and three more from Posey to Bart. Maybe three or four more from the rotation and two or three from the bullpen. Two or three more in the outfield. And even that doesn't get up to 20, so they'll probably lose even more (or I have simply missed some).

Right now they don't look like a top team, but they certainly appear to be a reasonable bet to be a playoff contender. Heck, TWO years ago they were a playoff contender.

If you're going to make rash statements, could you please back them up?

By the way, while Estrada may do some platooning with La Stella, they also have Flores for that role when Wilmer doesn't platoon with Belt. Brandon had an .832 OPS against southpaws last season and .790 when a left started the game. He shouldn't need to be overly or perhaps even overtly platooned.

With regard to Estrada, what makes you assume he's a good platoon candidate? His expected batting average last season was only .239 and his expected SLG was only .441. His walk rate was only 6.8%. His weighted on base average of .346 was fine, but he EXPECTED weighted OBA was only .312. He hit only .111 in August and .229 in September, although he did hit with some power.

Worse for platooning purposes, he had a reverse split, registering a weak .682 OPS against southpaws, although it was an acceptable .781 when a left started. He did hit well at Sacramento against lefties, although he also batted just .120 and .241 there in August and September.

It appears to me that Thairo's best asset is his versatility, which could allow him to back up at multiple positions, including possible platoons. But against most southpaws, I think the Giants' strongest lineup would include Belt at first base and Flores at second. Against southpaws, the position he might be best able to help out at might be shortstop.

[sharksrog]

I believe MLBTR estimated Rodon's contract at 1/$25, so he'll get a lot higher than a $12 million AAV almost no matter how long he signs for.

[sharksrog]

Freeman is the guy I lust after, although that makes much more sense if the DH becomes universal than otherwise. Otherwise the Giants would be forced into something like playing Belt in the outfield with a ground ball pitcher on the mound and Freeman at third or second base with a fly ball pitcher. But, man, Freddie is a great combination of hitter, fielder and leader. I think he's a clearly better hitter than Correa -- and healthier as well. Plus his contract wouldn't have to be as long. And he wouldn't conflict with Crawford or later, perhaps Luciano (although to be honest, while the Giants still seem to see Marco as a shortstop, I see him more as third baseman, right fielder or second baseman).

Give me Freddie and Rodon, and I'll be in heaven. I have to admit though that I haven't looked at the salary implications for the second half of the decade, although right now, aren't the Giants committed to only DeSclafani out as far as even 2024?

[sharksrog]

I believe that if you build the franchise the right way, the fans will come.

[sharksrog]

I agree with you, Boly, that Leone, Garcia and Littell should regress. Leone almost certainly won't repeat his 1.51 ERA. His expected ERA was almost two runs higher (although at 3.44, he still wouldn't be bad). At 2.62, Garcia pitched closest to his expected 3.36. Littell's 2.92 was just over a run better than his expected 3.97. All three benefited from SOME degree of luck, but none of them was truly bad, either.

And remember that although Matt thought John Brebbia was lousy last season, his 3.60 expected ERA was more than two runs better than his actual. I see that the Zips projections have John's K% and K-BB% projected as the best on the team in 2022. Didn't know that until yesterday, but it might bode well for John. I think the guy almost everyone here underrates is Tyler Rogers. I know he doesn't LOOK good, but his 2.89 expected ERA last season was second on the team behind only Camilo Doval. Keep in mind too that Tyler makes a fine counterpoint to virtually any pitcher he would follow or precede. I think it was either Boly or Matt who suggested the Giants get his brother, and I'm all for that too.

[Islandboagie]

Freeman and Belt are too valuable defensively at 1st to DH or play some other position.

[reedonly]

Dec 16, 2021 11:16:26 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

Dec 16, 2021 10:03:09 GMT -5 reedonly said:

Rodon might be a guy who gets a team over the top but a problem with Rodon is a lot of other clubs are also interested and might bid Rodon into expensive range. Seattle, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees have been kicking the tires. For a guy whose highest IP in last few years of 132, if it gets to be over 2 years or Aav over $12, they would have to make sure this isn't money that could prevent them from spending in the future. Also, in his comp list are Erik Bedard, Noah Lowry, and Trevor Wilson.  So my verdict on Rodon is that he would be worth going for if, and only if, the price was reasonable abut I think he's going to get his money and end up on the Yankees' IL.  

At this point, injury history or not, Rodon might be the ONLY arm out there who 'could' put this group back in the playoff hunt again next year.

I mean, seriously... even after the SP holes, this team is on shaky ground.

Why?

1-At his age I seriously doubt Crawford will come close to what he did this year.

2-Longoria and Ruff are 36, and Longoria simply can't stay on the field.

3-Belt, who appears finally on the verge of becoming what we all thought he would become... is constantly hurt.

4-Posey's absence will hurt in 2 areas, the biggest of which is defense.

5-I'm glad Solano and his rock hard hands are gone, but will they really give Estrada a chance to platoon with La Stella? And by that I mean, if he struggles, will they really stick with him?

6-Farhan and the writers might be happy with our bullpen, but I am not.

I contend that many of the good years they had were flukes. Especially Leone, Garcia and Littell.

Just my opinion.

I think Crawford will drop off a bit but can sustain most of his production.  Notice that in 2021, he did not have a lot of that excess weight that slowed him down in recent seasons.  I think he tried to hide it in 2019 by wearing loose pants but his lack of speed on the basepaths was a clear giveaway.  Kapler supposedly had a one on one with him at the beginning of last year and while no one really mentions it, this was something he obviously worked on.  If he keeps the weight off, I feel you will be pleasantly surprised.  Krukow said yesterday that what he and Crawford have in common was that they had their best year at age 34.  Then he said that Crawford has a chance to do what Krukow himself could not do and that was to improve on it at age 35.   

One of the big chips on Crawford's shoulder last season was that all the beatwriters kept mentioning all the big name free agent SS's being available as free agents at the end of 2021.  Correa, Seager, Story were always mentioned and Crawford was never mentioned.  If that was what it took to get him motivated, good for him. 

[klaiggeb]

I sure hope you are right, Reed, because it seems pretty obvious that Farhan does not want to do a complete rebuild by bringing up a bunch of kids at one time, as other teams have.

And I'm okay with that, but at the same time I still wish we would start seeing some of the youngsters get some playing experience.

[reedonly]

Dec 17, 2021 10:05:12 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

I sure hope you are right, Reed, because it seems pretty obvious that Farhan does not want to do a complete rebuild by bringing up a bunch of kids at one time, as other teams have.

And I'm okay with that, but at the same time I still wish we would start seeing some of the youngsters get some playing experience.

Well, 2021 saw emergence of Webb, Estrada, Castro, and Doval.  2022 will bring us Bart.  Also, subtracted Dickerson and Solano.  

[reedonly]

Dec 16, 2021 20:32:38 GMT -5 Islandboagie said:

Freeman and Belt are too valuable defensively at 1st to DH or play some other position.

Freeman is one of those players to go after and whether Belt is on the roster or not should not matter.  If they sign Freeman, Belt will be gone in 2023 with a $18 million "thank you" gift in 2022.   If they don't go after Freeman, the Dodgers will because of Muncy's shoulder injury. 

[sharksrog]

Why do you look at things so narrow-mindedly, Matt? You are right that both Freeman and Belt are EXCELLENT defenders, both among the very best in the game that their positions. I think I like Freddie's defense even better, and I LOVE Belt's defense. Belt has long been right up there with Posey and Crawford as being among the best defenders at his position. Belt has been the most underrated Giants during his tenure with the team.

But when you have the chance to add Freddie's bat to the lineup -- and Freddie is clearly a top 10 bat -- don't you grab it and figure things out later? McCovey and Cepeda could both play a nice first base, and they couldn't play any other position decently, but you don't think that if there had been a universal DH back then that the Giants wouldn't have found a way to keep both bats in the lineup? The only negative to pairing Freddie and Brandon would be that they both hit left-handed. But each hits southpaws acceptably while pulverizing right-handers.

In the minor leagues, first base is one of the Giants' weakest positions.

[sharksrog]

Boly, the problem when you talk about bringing up the youngsters is that you don't follow them, so you don't know what you're talking about. Let's take a look at the three guys most likely to get their chance this season. Aside from the obvious shot for Bart, they don't yet sound ready.

Joey Bart -- Joey isn't just penciled in as the starting catcher; with Buster gone, he's written in in ink. I think he's easily the most ready of this trio I'm going to discuss, but there have been questions about his catching (which I don't think is going to be a problem, but there may be things I don't know about), and he hasn't hit for the power that was expected. Last season he hit only 10 homers in 279 at bats in a PCL that is noted for thin air and power hitting. In addition, he struck out almost once every three at bats and walked barely a quarter as often has he fanned. I like Joey, but there was a reason I moved Luis Matos ahead of him well over a year ago. Teams want their prospects to move up the prospect lists as they get closer to the majors, but Joey has pretty much stayed in place. As an example, Baseball America had him ranked #29 in 2019 but had dropped him to #41 in 2021. Baseball Prospectus did the exact opposite. MLB.com dropped him from #22 to #23. Marco Luciano, Matos and Kyle Harrison keep moving up the list, while Joey has been a place holder. Bart looks like a ball player, and he looks like a leader. He does appear to have a quick bat. Joey turned 25 just two days ago.

Heliot Ramos -- Ramos is another prospect whose star has stalled. Baseball America had him at #79 in 2019 and at #83 in 2021. MLB.co had him at #63 pre-2018 but dropped him to #82 pre-2021. Baseball Prospectus did increase him, from #61 pre-2018 to #32 pre-2021. Last season at AA Richmond, Heliot his right-handers so-so (.273) but struggled against southpaws (.224). I don't have his Sacramento splits, but he hit .272 overall in a power hitters' league. He has played some winter ball in the Puerto Rico League (where he is from), batting .333 with a .968 OPS, but in only 12 at bats. The Giants believe Heliot can play center field. I saw him play there for San Jose, but my only defensive note was that he was late in his set up. He didn't have any difficult chances on which to judge him. He likely runs well enough now for center, but his bowling ball build will likely slow down with each passing season. Heliot is looking at this moment like the short side of a platoon, with the defensive tools to play any of the three defensive spots, for now at least. Ramos has cut down his strikeouts a bit, and at times he's drawn some walks. Heliot is listed at 6-foot-1, 188 pounds, but I believe he already weighed more than that when I saw him play 2 1/2 years ago. Heliot is 22, so time is on his side. But he probably needs to master AAA before he can help the Giants significantly.

Sean Hjelle -- Sean pitched well in the low minors, but he's stalled a bit at AA (3.96) and AAA (5.74). He posted an inexcusable 1.80 WHIP for Sacramento the second half of last season. He struggled his first time in AA, posting a 6.04 ERA in 2019, but he improved to 3.15 there last season. So perhaps this season he will improve in AAA as well. His 29 walks in 53 innings were perhaps most concerning. Sean has excellent body control for a 6-foot-11 giant, and his overall walk rate in the minors is below three per nine. Hjelle is 24. He needs to hjell soon. At his side, it would be understandable if it took longer, although his body control and pitch-ability have exceeded his stuff to this point.

[reedonly]

Dec 17, 2021 13:38:46 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

Boly, the problem when you talk about bringing up the youngsters is that you don't follow them, so you don't know what you're talking about. Let's take a look at the three guys most likely to get their chance this season. Aside from the obvious shot for Bart, they don't yet sound ready.

Joey Bart -- Joey isn't just penciled in as the starting catcher; with Buster gone, he's written in in ink. I think he's easily the most ready of this trio I'm going to discuss, but there have been questions about his catching (which I don't think is going to be a problem, but there may be things I don't know about), and he hasn't hit for the power that was expected. Last season he hit only 10 homers in 279 at bats in a PCL that is noted for thin air and power hitting. In addition, he struck out almost once every three at bats and walked barely a quarter as often has he fanned. I like Joey, but there was a reason I moved Luis Matos ahead of him well over a year ago. Teams want their prospects to move up the prospect lists as they get closer to the majors, but Joey has pretty much stayed in place. As an example, Baseball America had him ranked #29 in 2019 but had dropped him to #41 in 2021. Baseball Prospectus did the exact opposite. MLB.com dropped him from #22 to #23. Marco Luciano, Matos and Kyle Harrison keep moving up the list, while Joey has been a place holder. Bart looks like a ball player, and he looks like a leader. He does appear to have a quick bat. Joey turned 25 just two days ago.

Heliot Ramos -- Ramos is another prospect whose star has stalled. Baseball America had him at #79 in 2019 and at #83 in 2021. MLB.co had him at #63 pre-2018 but dropped him to #82 pre-2021. Baseball Prospectus did increase him, from #61 pre-2018 to #32 pre-2021. Last season at AA Richmond, Heliot his right-handers so-so (.273) but struggled against southpaws (.224). I don't have his Sacramento splits, but he hit .272 overall in a power hitters' league. He has played some winter ball in the Puerto Rico League (where he is from), batting .333 with a .968 OPS, but in only 12 at bats. The Giants believe Heliot can play center field. I saw him play there for San Jose, but my only defensive note was that he was late in his set up. He didn't have any difficult chances on which to judge him. He likely runs well enough now for center, but his bowling ball build will likely slow down with each passing season. Heliot is looking at this moment like the short side of a platoon, with the defensive tools to play any of the three defensive spots, for now at least. Ramos has cut down his strikeouts a bit, and at times he's drawn some walks. Heliot is listed at 6-foot-1, 188 pounds, but I believe he already weighed more than that when I saw him play 2 1/2 years ago. Heliot is 22, so time is on his side. But he probably needs to master AAA before he can help the Giants significantly.

Sean Hjelle -- Sean pitched well in the low minors, but he's stalled a bit at AA (3.96) and AAA (5.74). He posted an inexcusable 1.80 WHIP for Sacramento the second half of last season. He struggled his first time in AA, posting a 6.04 ERA in 2019, but he improved to 3.15 there last season. So perhaps this season he will improve in AAA as well. His 29 walks in 53 innings were perhaps most concerning. Sean has excellent body control for a 6-foot-11 giant, and his overall walk rate in the minors is below three per nine. Hjelle is 24. He needs to hjell soon. At his side, it would be understandable if it took longer, although his body control and pitch-ability have exceeded his stuff to this point.

Krukow has talked about Joey Bart a lot and said the lack of minor leagues due to COVID really hurt him.  He wasn't major league ready last year and supposedly, catchers typically need about a year at each level to learn all the nuances.  Also, he was having difficulty learning and accepting the one knee catching method the Giants want their catchers to learn.  Bart was somewhat resistant to picking that up because he was successful in college with the traditional squat.  

while we are on the subject of players being resistant to coaching, I've read on numerous blogs that Kris Bryant is a player that does not listen.  He is a good guy but Cubs fans say that he has a tendency to blow off the coaches because he had so much success in the past when he started.  Its a shame because I thought he could have been almost as good as Trout but in 2021, what you saw is what you got.  I don't know how he was in the clubhouse but if they Giants tried to tell him something and he either resisted or ignored them, then its a red flag.  

Heliot is 188 pounds?  I don't think so.  Hunter Bishop has called him "Babe Ruth Jr" but he's starting to look like "Pablo Sandoval Jr".    He's starting to look too heavy for the outfield. 

[sharksrog]

I certainly don't think Heliot is too heavy for the outfield. His brother Henry is listed at 6-foot, 215 pounds, and he can still play there. I do think Heliot will get too heavy for center field, if he hasn't aleady. And as I mentioned, I thought he was well over his listed 188 two years ago when I saw him. Remember though, that he comes from a family with speed. One of his other brothers, Hector, plays for the Puerto Rican soccer team and is listed at 6-foot-3, 185 pounds. Apparently he has a different build than the two baseball brothers -- or his weight too is behind the times.

But keep in mind that athletes can be really big and still be fast and agile. Every week I watch AJ Dillon of the Packers. AJ is listed at 6-foot, 247, and he ran a 4.53 40 at the NFL combine. That's fast enough to play center field.

Willie Mays probably ran close to 40 yards to catch Vic Wertz's drive to center field, but the ball was in the air about six seconds.

[reedonly]

Heliot does look a lot like he could be Pablo's kid brother. Hope he doesn't develop the same way. If his development stalls, he might be trade bait but I hope he gets back on track.

[sharksrog]

To me, Heliot is looking more and more like the short side of a platoon. He should have value in that role and could back up all three outfield positions. And he does have the potential for more. I think it will boil down to how well he can control the strike zone.