Post by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2021 9:29:16 GMT -5
A replacement team would likely win close to 50 games in a season and since their 35 or so players would mostly make the minimum, they would have a payroll of only $20 million or so. But teams don't want to be 50-win teams. They would like to build up to being say a 90-win team, a team that would usually make the playoffs and in their best years, might be able to compete for a World Championship.
Only one problem with going from 50 wins to 90 wins. Free agents cost about $8 million a win on average. To provide that extra wins would cost around $320 million, bringing total payroll to $340 million. Not even the profligate Dodgers spend that much.
What that shows us is that teams have to build themselves up with players in their first six seasons, players not yet eligible for free agency. Boly has told us players are overpaid, and when it comes to free agents, he's right. Because baseball's system has made players in their first three seasons exceptionally cheap and players in their next three seasons perhaps reasonably priced and still under the control of their original teams (unless they have been traded or released), free agent talent has been made artificially scarce and hence, overpriced.
Which is why the Giants have a chance to make this an extremely productive decade. Yes, they'll almost certainly fall way back this year -- they're probably not much better than a 90-win team now despite their franchise record 107 wins last season -- but in Logan Webb, they've already begun to see the value contained in their farm system. How well the Giants perform this decade will be determined in part by Farhan's wizardly and the excellent abilities of Gabe Kapler and his wonderful coaching staff, but it will be determined in great part by how players like Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos and Kyle Harrison develop. Of that group, I don't see Ramos as a true difference maker, but the other four might be. And Ramos could become a dependable two- to four-win player.
More than any other player, who made the Giants go last season? That would be Brandon Crawford, who was paid $15 million but provided nearly three times that value according to Fan Graphs. That was the best season of his career, so he'll almost certainly fall back. Buster Posey is gone, and the Giants are hoping Joey Bart can pick up two to four of Buster's five added wins last season. They're hoping Brandon Belt can continue his fine two most recent seasons, that Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood will repeat their fine 2021 years, and that Alex Cobb can replace two or three of Kevin Gausman's four added wins.
Another key will be the continued contributions of the Giants' many smaller heroes. Their depth had a lot to do with their excellent 2021 season. Most of the relievers will likely fall back a bit, and we can only hope that the position players continue their fine work of last season. And that Bart and Ramos can make noticeable contributions. Bart in particular will be a key, given the hole left by Buster. When the Giants drafted Joey, they envisioned him to be capable of carrying on Buster's legacy to some degree. This is the season when we'll begin to find out how realistic those hopes were.
Buster was worth five added wins last season. If Joey and Heliot could pick up that slack this season, I would be DELIGHTED. Even three or four wins wouldn't be bad. In a best-case scenario, Joey could pick up three or four wins by himself. Counting on Heliot for more than one or two would be extreme IMO.
But 2023 is when the players who will go the furthest in determining the Giants' success this decade will begin to hit the show. By 2025, we should have a decent sense how good those players will become. By 2027, they should be well on their way to having become those players.
Those are the guys who, even more than Farhan's acumen, can keep the Giants an affordable dynasty for this decade, if that is what they are to become. Certainly last season they got off to a great start!
Only one problem with going from 50 wins to 90 wins. Free agents cost about $8 million a win on average. To provide that extra wins would cost around $320 million, bringing total payroll to $340 million. Not even the profligate Dodgers spend that much.
What that shows us is that teams have to build themselves up with players in their first six seasons, players not yet eligible for free agency. Boly has told us players are overpaid, and when it comes to free agents, he's right. Because baseball's system has made players in their first three seasons exceptionally cheap and players in their next three seasons perhaps reasonably priced and still under the control of their original teams (unless they have been traded or released), free agent talent has been made artificially scarce and hence, overpriced.
Which is why the Giants have a chance to make this an extremely productive decade. Yes, they'll almost certainly fall way back this year -- they're probably not much better than a 90-win team now despite their franchise record 107 wins last season -- but in Logan Webb, they've already begun to see the value contained in their farm system. How well the Giants perform this decade will be determined in part by Farhan's wizardly and the excellent abilities of Gabe Kapler and his wonderful coaching staff, but it will be determined in great part by how players like Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos and Kyle Harrison develop. Of that group, I don't see Ramos as a true difference maker, but the other four might be. And Ramos could become a dependable two- to four-win player.
More than any other player, who made the Giants go last season? That would be Brandon Crawford, who was paid $15 million but provided nearly three times that value according to Fan Graphs. That was the best season of his career, so he'll almost certainly fall back. Buster Posey is gone, and the Giants are hoping Joey Bart can pick up two to four of Buster's five added wins last season. They're hoping Brandon Belt can continue his fine two most recent seasons, that Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood will repeat their fine 2021 years, and that Alex Cobb can replace two or three of Kevin Gausman's four added wins.
Another key will be the continued contributions of the Giants' many smaller heroes. Their depth had a lot to do with their excellent 2021 season. Most of the relievers will likely fall back a bit, and we can only hope that the position players continue their fine work of last season. And that Bart and Ramos can make noticeable contributions. Bart in particular will be a key, given the hole left by Buster. When the Giants drafted Joey, they envisioned him to be capable of carrying on Buster's legacy to some degree. This is the season when we'll begin to find out how realistic those hopes were.
Buster was worth five added wins last season. If Joey and Heliot could pick up that slack this season, I would be DELIGHTED. Even three or four wins wouldn't be bad. In a best-case scenario, Joey could pick up three or four wins by himself. Counting on Heliot for more than one or two would be extreme IMO.
But 2023 is when the players who will go the furthest in determining the Giants' success this decade will begin to hit the show. By 2025, we should have a decent sense how good those players will become. By 2027, they should be well on their way to having become those players.
Those are the guys who, even more than Farhan's acumen, can keep the Giants an affordable dynasty for this decade, if that is what they are to become. Certainly last season they got off to a great start!