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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 4, 2021 17:28:13 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2021 18:24:01 GMT -5
What were those predictions? Shouldn't our expectations this winter have been based on what Mr. Zaidi talked about a month or a month and a half ago? For instance, he implied pretty strongly they wouldn't be pursuing Bryant. I was just thinking today that might still be possible if the price were right, but that doesn't seem likely. So why are we asking if that is the plan? Clearly it isn't. It could still happen, but it doesn't appear to be Plan A or even Plan K (for Kris).
So let's look at the other three points:
1. Taylor is off the table. OK, didn't it seem unlikely the Giants would pry him away from the Dodgers? Would it have even been wise if they could have done so? Taylor hit only .254 with a .438 SLG in 2021, and based on how he hit the ball, he reached an expected .237 and .422. He is certainly more versatile and a much better fielder than Wilmer Flores, but Wilmer had similar numbers and expected numbers -- at only $3.5 million for the upcoming season. Baseball-Reference projects Wilmer to his .265 with a .451 SLG. That's better than the projected .252 and .438 for Taylor -- and for $11.5 million this season less and four years less commitment. Was Taylor worth the added investment?
2. All the best starters are off the table. And the Giants signed three of the top 15. Spending only $80 million to do so, while wrapping each of the three up for at least two years. Which other pitcher would we have signed that might have provided a similar value for the dollar?
3. The Giants have lost Buster Posey's leadership. But fortunately 10 years virtually to the day after drafting Buster #5 overall, they drafted fellow catcher Joey Bart #2 overall. Bart had much more catching experience than Buster, was also considered to be good on both sides of the ball, and like Buster, had called his pitchers' games in college. No question the Giants will miss Buster's leadership, but more than any other position on their roster, they have a ready and ready-made replacement already available.
That all leaves the Giants with much more money to spend -- when they find values that warrant spending it. The Giants have already spent more this offseason than they spent in Mr. Zaidi's first two winters.
You are right that the Giants can't match the talent of either the Dodgers or Padres, but that didn't pose an insurmountable problem last year, did it?
As for this offseason, it ain't over till it's over. And even after it is over, the trade deadline will still be out there four months down the line.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 4, 2021 20:45:46 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
Most of the best starters on free agent market are not worth it. Those kinds of contracts should be reserved for generational talents. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 4, 2021 21:12:50 GMT -5
I'm with you here, Reeder. When Mr. Zaidi does spend big bucks in the free agent market, I'll bet he makes a pretty good decision.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 4, 2021 21:40:08 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
Most of the best starters on free agent market are not worth it. Those kinds of contracts should be reserved for generational talents.
What he's done, IMHO, is sidle us with a so-so starting staff in a division with outstanding pitching, and with the way things sit right now, I believe 3rd place.
What good is all that supposed money that's available if Farhan doesn't do something substantial with it?
I just don't get his logic, Reed, I really don't.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 4, 2021 22:29:31 GMT -5
It may not be this year but big money should be for big talent. Maybe Syndergaard next year.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 5, 2021 8:35:57 GMT -5
At this point, does it make sense to ask, based on his track record, should we be relying on Mr. Zaidi, or should we go with the acumen of Boly and panic?
One basic question we might ask is, do the Giants look better today than they looked a year ago? Another might be, do they have more money to spend today, or did they have more to spend a year ago? Another could be, is Mr. Zaidi more proven now, or was he more proven a year ago?
A question for Boly: Farhan has made it clear he's all about value investing. When he finds value, he invests; when he doesn't find it, he doesn't invest. Have you lost faith in that approach?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 5, 2021 10:26:36 GMT -5
Most of the best starters on free agent market are not worth it. Those kinds of contracts should be reserved for generational talents.
What he's done, IMHO, is sidle us with a so-so starting staff in a division with outstanding pitching, and with the way things sit right now, I believe 3rd place.
What good is all that supposed money that's available if Farhan doesn't do something substantial with it?
I just don't get his logic, Reed, I really don't.
Boly, don't forget that there has been wear and tear on he Dodger staff, too. One thing that affected the Giants staff in the early 2010's was when each of those teams went deep into the playoffs, there was a dropoff in the pitching the next year because of the fatigue. Buehler and Urias are not physical horse types and they have pitched deep into the post-season year after year. Their pitching is still good but I would not be surprised if it starts fraying at the edges, especially after the all-star break next season. If they re-sign Jansen, based on his body type, he would be affected less but if they re-sign Kersh, he would be an injury risk once again. |
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Post by reedonly on Dec 5, 2021 10:33:44 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
We will unfortunately likely see some regression to the mean. Since SF surprised last year, they probably trend down, since SD disappointed, they head up. However, SD's problems were not solely due to bad chemistry. We discussed this on the board a couple of months ago and ssid it was a number of things. Pitching was a problem they did not address. Clevinger might be back but I think Darvish was exposed (spider-tacK) and Snell, who knows? Melvin is a good manager and he can improve on the bad chemistry but he might not be able to fix the pitching. |
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Post by reedonly on Dec 5, 2021 10:41:21 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
One positive trend is that our minor league system is now ranked ahead of LA and San Diego's. The system has to start producing players for the plan to work. The problem with winning 107 games is that there's basically nowhere to go but down. The key to sustained success is to get that minor league pipeline going and preparing player to produce at the major league level, which is what LA has done in the last decade. I won't be upset about 2022 if they can get on a run starting in 2023 and the key to that is to get that whole organization moving. The Free agents are nice but they are an expensive band-aid. The thing that hurts is the loss of Posey's leadership and that is incalculable. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2021 10:45:06 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
We will unfortunately likely see some regression to the mean. Since SF surprised last year, they probably trend down, since SD disappointed, they head up. However, SD's problems were not solely due to bad chemistry. We discussed this on the board a couple of months ago and ssid it was a number of things. Pitching was a problem they did not address. Clevinger might be back but I think Darvish was exposed (spider-tacK) and Snell, who knows? Melvin is a good manager and he can improve on the bad chemistry but he might not be able to fix the pitching.
No question that Darvish went into a nose dive after the Spider Tack thing... but other then him, I thought their pitching 'should' have been better than it was.
I look at what Roger Craig did for us; what Kapler did for us; what Melvin did for the A's.
Some managers just have that 'knack' for getting the best out of their players.
I know chemistry wasn't the only issue, but it was a big one, as was leadership, which I pointed out in a recent post.
Find the right driver and the bus runs a whole lot more smoothly.
But please, don't mistake my concern for panic. I do a lot of things but panic is not one of them.
I use my experience to evaluate and then say what's on my mind.
Like you, I see some regression next year for all of the reasons I listed above. |
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Post by holiday613 on Dec 5, 2021 13:38:16 GMT -5
In Farhan I trust!!
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2021 14:40:01 GMT -5
I trust him, too, holiday, but that does not mean he's immune from making mistakes.
I contend he is the best GM we have ever had.
But that said, I feel he missed the boat big time and that fixing the starting staff.
As I said, trust is not the issue.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 5, 2021 18:32:14 GMT -5
OK, Boly, so whom do you feel Mr. Zaidi missed out on, and how much would you have paid to get him or them?
I'm glad to see you think Mr. Zaidi is the best Giants GM ever. Now you see how frivolous your reason for not trusting him initially was.
Of course he's not immune from making mistakes, but that's why he has Scott and a team of analytical guys and scouts.
Here's what I believe the problem is: I believe both you and Matt are undervaluing DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb, while Mr. Zaidi and his group see their value more accurately. You're right that no one is infallible, but aren't we usually on a fool's errand when we try to more or less match wits with Mr. Zaidi? He's smarter than we are, and he has a team of guys who are smarter and more knowledgeable than we.
Now, if we can identify specific concerns and point out how Mr. Zaidi and crew might have overlooked them, we can begin to make an argument. But saying for instance that DeSclafani has to be pulled early and thus is only a #4 when only 30 pitchers pitched more innings last season than he isn't a valid reason. Not when by definition there are 30 #1's, 30 #2's, etc. Last season DeSclafani ranked 13th in ERA and 31st in innings pitched. That sounds darn close to a #1 -- not a #4.
I think I have shown that Anthony is a bona fide #2. Saying only that he has to be pulled early when he finished just outside the top 30 pitchers in innings pitched is no valid reason that shows he is less than that.
I don't mind guys disagreeing. That's one of the ways I learn. But what irks me is when people disagree without having a valid reason and then can't see that facts and logic don't favor their argument.
Remember when I went through a detailed analysis on Marcus Stroman and changed my mind to agree with Boly that I would favor signing him? That's the type of analysis I think you guys should do on DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb before chiding Mr. Zaidi on signing him. I changed my mind, and perhaps if you went deeper on the trio, you would change your minds too.
Remember, there are things Mr. Zaidi knows about the trio that we don't. If we're going to disagree with him, doesn't it make sense to do as much study as we reasonably can to be in the most knowledgeable position to disagree?
We trust Mr. Zaidi, yet we're second-guessing him? I think that's more or less reasonable -- as long as we have a strong reason for our disagreement.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 6, 2021 21:24:03 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
AJ Preller is still in charge and the Padres have not reached .500 in a 162 game season under him. He keeps throwing managers under the bus and traded away Trea Turner, Hunter Renfroe, and Franmil Reyes. Eric Hosmer instead of Ty France? He looks like one of those new Yale grad GMs but hasn't proven himself even with luxury tax spending. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 7, 2021 9:48:53 GMT -5
Thank you, Reed for passing on information about the Padres about which I was not aware.
I suspect that he was not a very good general manager, but I wasn't aware that he had traded away some of the players you mentioned since I really don't follow the Padres at all
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Post by reedonly on Dec 7, 2021 11:08:40 GMT -5
Thank you, Reed for passing on information about the Padres about which I was not aware. I suspect that he was not a very good general manager, but I wasn't aware that he had traded away some of the players you mentioned since I really don't follow the Padres at all I see Preller as kind of an anti-Farhan. He looks like one of those new sabermetric GMs but will abandon his managers instead of taking blame himself. With access to that much money, they should have done better last season. Tingler is not a good manager but I think Preller betrayed him. Melvin might be able to improve Snell because a lot of Snell's problem is immaturity but I don't know if he can improve spider-tack Darvish or the pitchers with injuries. I'm not sure if they are going to spend much more and try to fix the pitching. If Melvin can get them focused, they might be playoff contenders again. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 8, 2021 17:40:53 GMT -5
When someone is an anti-Farhan, he's probably not very good.  I expected a lot when the Giants hired Farhan, and he's exceeded my expectations. Outstanding at his job, and he seems like a really nice guy to boot. He's also young enough he could be around a long time. I would think the Giants will be announcing his extension, perhaps even before next season starts. In fact, with the shutdown, I see no reason the Giants shouldn't be working on it right now. Farhan has said, "I imagine I'll be around as long as they'll have me." I see no reason the Giants wouldn't have him around a long time, although I also realize things can change over time. But, man, for Boly to say he believes Farhan is the Giants' best GM after the slow start Farhan got off to with Boly and with the Giants already having had some good GM's in Al Rosen and Brian Sabean, that's quite a statement. Please, let's not spoil it by telling Boly that Farhan hasn't played the game beyond high school! |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 18:31:32 GMT -5
Philosophical question: If the Giants can't find value, should they spend money just because they have it? Or are they better off saving it for the trade deadline or even later?
Another question for those who say to spend the money now: What is your plan for locking up Webb, Bart, Luciano, Matos, Harrison and others a few years from now, and what impact do you foresee spending now without value might have on your plan? As an example, how might spending $115 million on Ray over five years impact locking those guys up? How about say signing Castellanos for seven or eight years?
Or if you're the GM, do you simply say, "I might not even be around them, so screw it?" and go ahead despite what you see as a lack of value?
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Post by reedonly on Dec 18, 2021 21:53:33 GMT -5
Philosophical question: If the Giants can't find value, should they spend money just because they have it? Or are they better off saving it for the trade deadline or even later? Another question for those who say to spend the money now: What is your plan for locking up Webb, Bart, Luciano, Matos, Harrison and others a few years from now, and what impact do you foresee spending now without value might have on your plan? As an example, how might spending $115 million on Ray over five years impact locking those guys up? How about say signing Castellanos for seven or eight years? Or if you're the GM, do you simply say, "I might not even be around them, so screw it?" and go ahead despite what you see as a lack of value? Fans will want them to spend it but since they incurred heavy losses in 2020 and 2021, I would understand if they did not. I'm not sure the typical fan would accept them not spending. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 19, 2021 0:47:40 GMT -5
My guess is that the Giants, who say they trust Farhan and mean it, are likely giving him discretion to spend the amount of money he believes he can receive value for in return.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 20, 2021 11:22:05 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
I went back to all the articles about the Giants having a lot of money to spend and I think the root article was traderumors.com. I'm not sure if they are reliable because they tend to link other articles instead of coming up with their own material. Best to hang tight and see what happens after the new CBA is in place. Remember, the usual big spenders (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox) have been laying back also so I think all of those teams are playing the long game. The goal is not to be successful in 2022 but to have something sustainable and self-sufficient from 2023 on. That is why I'm pushing for them to get Freeman even though they have Belt now and they have to determine which of the minor leaguers are going to contribute from 2023 on and which they can trade off for useful pieces. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 20, 2021 16:28:54 GMT -5
MLBTR is a reliable source. As you say, their reporting is mostly second hand, but it's usually a nice compendium. They're considered among the very best with the free agent rankings.
The Giants DO have a lot of money to spend without hitting the soft cap. That's the point they were making. My guess is that Farhan has a lot in his budget or at least a lot he can get approved for, but that doesn't mean he'll spend it all if he doesn't think he's receiving value.
I think Freddie could provide value, although what I have read indicates the Giants won't go nine figures for anyone and that Freddie is most likely to return to the Braves. Matt thinks that even with the universal DH, both Freddie and Brandon are too good in the field to play there. He's right, but Brandon has an injury history, the DH seems likely to become universal (and the result will likely be known before the Giants could sign Freddie anyway, and both players can play other positions.
You're right about 2023 and beyond, Reeder, but few here have that kind of patience. We have to remember the perspectives of others. I mentioned Matt's, and Boly doesn't follow the Giants minor leaguers, so 2023 and beyond are pie in the sky to him. He correctly sees that the Giants are likely to regress by somewhere close to 20 wins and now that they've won a franchise high, he doesn't want to fall back nearly that much in 2022. He knows Marco Luciano from Rocky Luciano, but that's about it. So to him, 2023 is merely the year between elections.
Boly talks about the predictions we've heard about this current off season over the past two years, but those predictions were based on not having the Brandon's back and the possibility that Buster wouldn't be back either (although most expected it to happen, even if the Giants bought out his option and re-signed him for less).
Beginning with the re-signing of Crawford, the Giants have already spent around $70 million on next season, and I'm pretty sure they're not done. The Giants showed with their trade for Kris Bryant that they also care about the here and now, but I think they also realize 2021 was a little fluky, and they're not likely to be truly good until at least 2023 or 2024.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 21, 2021 11:08:04 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
Padres added Matt Williams, Bryan Price, and Michael Brdar (Giants Minor League hitting coordinator). |
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Post by reedonly on Dec 21, 2021 11:25:45 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
Initially, I thought getting Chris Taylor made sense because he could be the rover in the Giants' defense but the contract he received does not make sense. It's two years too long, even with low AAV (four years with team option for a 5th year). He strikes out a lot and even though he did well against the Giants in the NLDS, he generally did not do well against the Giants in the regular season and struggled against Atlanta and San Diego. His closest comp right now is Fernando Tatis (that's senior) and might as well let the Dodgers pay him until 2025-2026. I think Boagie was right. Why bother paying so much for a guy who strikes out so much. Even as a cheap version of Kris Bryant or an expensive version of Wilmer Flores, he's not worth it. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 21, 2021 15:27:39 GMT -5
I wasn't big on signing Taylor because his expected offense last year was quite a bit lower than his actual performance. That said, he's a very versatile player and a right-handed batter who can play center field (a Giants need). Fan Graphs says his performance has been worth $74 million over the past four seasons, which indicates the Dodgers' risk may not be overly high. And they say he has been worth $112 million over the past five seasons, so if he winds up playing for 5/$68, he could potentially be a bit of a bargain.
Of course, it depends on how he plays from age 31 through 35 compared to how he played from 26 to 30. Probably a decent signing by the Dodgers though.
As for his strikeouts, his 28.7% K rate last season was just above his 27.5% career rate. Back in 2018, it was 29.5%. Not too much above the league average of 23.8%. I'm glad the Giants didn't sign him, but his versatility fits the Giants' mantra, and he's a good base runner. I doubt his signing would have been a disaster. I'm guessing he'll be worth about $50 million over his first four contract years. Then the Dodgers can decide if he's worth the $8 million net fifth year increase of a $12 million contract compared to a $4 million buyout.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 21, 2021 16:25:05 GMT -5
I wasn't big on signing Taylor because his expected offense last year was quite a bit lower than his actual performance. That said, he's a very versatile player and a right-handed batter who can play center field (a Giants need). Fan Graphs says his performance has been worth $74 million over the past four seasons, which indicates the Dodgers' risk may not be overly high. And they say he has been worth $112 million over the past five seasons, so if he winds up playing for 5/$68, he could potentially be a bit of a bargain. Of course, it depends on how he plays from age 31 through 35 compared to how he played from 26 to 30. Probably a decent signing by the Dodgers though. As for his strikeouts, his 28.7% K rate last season was just above his 27.5% career rate. Back in 2018, it was 29.5%. Not too much above the league average of 23.8%. I'm glad the Giants didn't sign him, but his versatility fits the Giants' mantra, and he's a good base runner. I doubt his signing would have been a disaster. I'm guessing he'll be worth about $50 million over his first four contract years. Then the Dodgers can decide if he's worth the $8 million net fifth year increase of a $12 million contract compared to a $4 million buyout. For the Dodgers, the signing is "okay" because no QO attached. A signing can be bad if it prevents a team from signing other players. In this case, the price is the Giants #2 draft choice in 2022 and international bonus money. The bonus money probably is the more valuable. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 21, 2021 16:53:52 GMT -5
You're almost always on top of it, Reeder. I forgot about the QO. It does make a difference. Even for the Dodgers, since while signing Chris doesn't cost them compensation, it might cause them to lose compensation. That makes me question their signing a little more.
I can understand the signing from their point of view. Nice versatility, and Taylor is probably an important part of their clubhouse. From the Giants' point of view, I would say the compensation makes an appropriate offer untenable.
Thanks for completing the context.
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Post by reedonly on Jan 6, 2022 9:23:10 GMT -5
For 2021, the Dodgers are hit with a $32.65 million luxury tax bill and the first draft choice gets pushed back to the 40th choice overall. The loss of compensation from supplemental draft pick was not a small thing. They may not be able to keep Jansen after that because the luxury tax escalates for repeat offenders but we will not know what it is until the new CBA goes into effect. The closer candidate might be Trienen or Kahnle and they might be forced to keep Bauer on the payroll.
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Post by reedonly on Jan 6, 2022 16:52:23 GMT -5
It is certainly too early to predict anything about next season, but with Bob Melvin now calling the shots in SD, I think that changes the NL west dynamic considerably.
I said many times last year that there was likely...likely... zero chemistry down there, and though I didn't post it, I questioned the leadership too.
But Melvin, IMHO, is a game changer; in this case an NL WEST changer.
All of the talent down there can now blossom... which is really bad news for us.
Talent for talent, we simply cannot compete, which is one of the many reasons I think Farhan has chosen a bad strategy for NOT signing a really, really good starter.
Like I said, it's early, but I don't like what I'm seeing.
1-Taylor is off the table
2-All of the best starters are off the table.
3-I'm not all that crazy about bringing back Bryant IF that's the plan.
4-No Posey and the calm, leadership he brought to the game each day
All of that money to spend... and we spent basically none of it.
So much for all the predictions we heard the last 2 years about THIS current off season.
Scherzer made some comments about the way he was used in the Atlanta series. He said he was trying to be used in the way he was used in the Washington World Series but they were trying to lessen the workload on Buehler and Urias. As I mentioned before, Urias and Buehler were treated very cautiously the past few years and they are definitely not horse type pitchers. Turns out Scherzer felt that he would have blown out his arm and jeopardized his career if he pitched in game 6 of the NLCS. Scherzer's comments might be an indication of arm trouble and why the Giants did not go too aggressively after him. His comments also might mean Buehler and Urias might have been wearing down, also. Bauer might be back for the Dodgers. Signing free agent pitchers tends to not work out for the most part we might see a repeat of 2014 and 2015. The more we get away from 2014, I am appreciating Bumgarner's World Series more and more. Often imitated but not equalled. |
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