Excellent move by Rays

[sharksrog]

I know there are some questions here about signing players to long-term contracts before they're proven, but I love the 11/$182 contract the Rays just signed Wander Franco to. Yes, $182 million is a lot to risk, and the Rays wouldn't have had to worry about free agency with Franco until after the 2027 season, but for their $182 million, they might well have received $300-$400 million of value over the next 11 seasons, and they have a $25 million option for another season.

Even if Rays keep Franco for the extra year, he'll be only 32. This way though, they're guaranteed most of the prime of perhaps the best player in baseball with less than one year in the majors. Franco guarantees himself a literal fortune, and in a best-case scenario, the Rays get themselves half a billion of value.

By comparison, the Padres didn't give Fernando Tatis, Jr. an extension until he had two full seasons of major league service, and then it cost them $340 million to sign him for 14 more years.

I don't know if there is a no-trade aspect to Franco's pact, but unless he falls on his face -- which seems highly unlikely for such a highly-rated prospect -- the Rays shouldn't have any problem trading him over the course of his contract. Which can help a franchise continue its legacy over a long period of time.

Franco's pact could set a model for a long-term contract for Marco Luciano in two or three years. I would say though that while some thought Marco would replace Franco as baseball's top prospect, he's fallen a little behind. Still, Marco did improve in the Arizona Fall League after a slow start. Hunter Bishop also came on on a delayed basis.

From what I read, the Giants were pleased with "enema" Gregory Santos' performance in the AFL. Gregory served a half-season substance suspension last season, but he also became the Giants' youngest pitcher since Madison Bumgarner. Gregory could stiffen the Giants' bullpen as early as this season.

[reedonly]

Farhan may not be willing to give a player that many years but he did go in for generational talent such as Bryce Harper or Gerrit Cole. Aside from Tatis, Soto, or Vlad, I'm not sure if anyone is worth the risk for that many years.

Even Trout's contract is bad in the sense that he is injured so often. The Dodgers may regret giving Mookie Betts that contract. I was surprised to find out that he is only 29 years old but is already getting pretty banged up and is due to get $30 million per year 2024-2032. That's an awful lot when your closest comparison is Andrew McCutheon and we all know how Andrew is doing these days.

[sharksrog]

If one looks at Mookie's career, he's done better in the even years than the odd ones. That was the way it was with Aubrey Huff and with Reggie Sanders, among former Giants. Aubrey was better in even years like Mookie, and Reggie was better in odd years. Unfortunately his one season with the Giants was 2002, which was an even (down) year.

When the Giants signed Reggie one Saturday I remember telling my nephew that I thought that would allow the Giants to win the World Series. Indeed they came close, but I had completely overlooked Reggie's every-other-year pattern, and 2002 wasn't one of his better seasons.

The beauty of Franco's contract is that its average annual value is so low. If I gave you an over/under of $300 million in value over his contract (which could be either 11 or 12 seasons), would you take the over or the under? Clearly the Rays are saying they're pretty confident of the over, and Franco is such an extraordinary prospect that I myself agree with them.

The Braves signed an 8/$100 contract with Acuna that was extremely favorable to them. Already Ronald's four year career has been valued at $126 million. And the Braves have him wrapped up for another seven seasons. Both Acuna and Trout have had injury issues, but Mike has already made the Hall of Fame based on a career valued at $598 million thus far.

When one gets a chance to wrap up a superstar early in his career at a reasonable price, it usually becomes a risk well worth taking. I loved Fan Graphs' headline that finally, Wanderlust involves staying put.

[sharksrog]

NBC Sports Bay Area just published an article discussing the nine best contracts in sports. Three of them were MLB contracts, two of which had been discussed here:

. Ronald Acuna 8/$100 million with two option years

. Wander Franco 12/$207 million with one option year

. Ozzie Albies 5/$35 million with two option years


Probably not surprising that those contracts belong to the Rays, who sort of pioneered the concept of wrapping stars up early, and the Braves, who are the current World Champions.

[reedonly]

Supposedly, Wander Franco is being investigated for social media posts involving a 14 year old. This illustrates the risk of giving a big long term contract to a guy who was then 20 years old.  Rog thought it was an underpay at the time he made those posts and was praising the Rays for their foresight.  I feel the Rays might have acted a little prematurely.  In baseball, ten years is a long time and I'm not sure you can say he would remain injury free or have a slump or get into trouble during that time.   I think the Rays should have at least waited a couple of years.  Since the signing, I believe Franco had $600K in jewelry stolen from his car.  It might be that the 14 year old is trying to extort money from him but giving a young guy like Franco that much money is trouble.  Rog brings up Tatis Jr in his posts and Padres probably have a lot of buyer's remorse at this point.  Its like giving a 16 year old a Ferrari.  What could possibly go wrong?

[reedonly]

The Wander Franco situation is now considered to be career threatening.