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Post by sharksrog on Nov 19, 2021 14:30:58 GMT -5
Extrapolating from an Around the Foghorn report, the Giants may have as much as $103 million to spend this offseason on 2022 salaries before they would hit the Competitive Balance Tax. That would seem to indicate the Giants are better positioned for free agency than any other team. Quite a change from the previous administration, where spending to keep up team chemistry almost always kept the Giants close to their spending limits.
Even less do I understand not making a Qualifying Offer to Anthony DeSclafani, but he is said to be seeking a long-term contract, and perhaps the Giants were doing him a favor in that regard by not requiring a compensation pick if he signed with another team.
I'm missing something here though. Baseball is a business. It doesn't seem that passing pu the opportunity to get a second-round compensation pick would make sense. Could it be that the Giants believed DeSclafani would accept the QO and that the $18.4 million would unduly limit their off-season flexibility? If so, the Giants must be shooting REALLY high this off-season.
Could it be that they don't think he would be worth the 1/$18.4 million? Anthony was valued at $24 million last season and at $20 million in his last previous full season of 2019. Perhaps there are health issues we don't know about. One would have thought that the Giants would have been interested in signing DeSclafani for at least two seasons and that proffering a QO would have cut Anthony's value to other teams and aided the Giants in that regard.
If Anthony had accepted the QO, would that have been a bad result? Hard to believe. If he had instead gone for a long-term contract, wouldn't the Giants have been better off with the option of either competing with the resultant lower offers from other teams or simply accepting the second-round compensation?
As I said, there's something I'm missing here. Anyone have any ideas what that is?
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 20, 2021 20:18:41 GMT -5
I question the move just as you do, Rog. I see offering him a QO as a win win situation, there must have been a reason why they didn't. The only thing I can think of is they already have a plan for their pitching rotation that didn't include Desclafani and perhaps they weren't sure he wouldn't accept it. If I recall it was a bit of a surprise that Gausman accepted his last offseason, so it wouldn't be shocking if Desclafani accepted his this time around.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 20, 2021 20:28:24 GMT -5
I think DeSclafani WOULD have accepted it. Then if he had another good season, he could have approached free agency next winter without compensation attached, as is the case with Gausman this winter. I think that is part of the reason Belt accepted his (plus I think he wanted to stay with the Giants and would be DELIGHTED if they extend him further at an acceptable figure).
I'm with you that Mr. Zaidi knows more about what he's doing than you and I combined, but I wish I could understand it. Maybe you're onto something. Maybe the Giants would be happy to have DeSclafani back, but they want to sign three pitchers, and he's #4. Perhaps they're hoping to sign the top three and that if they don't, they will still be able to sign DeSclafani. Let me give you a lot of credit on this one, Matt. Good going!
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Post by reedonly on Nov 22, 2021 11:41:46 GMT -5
They aren't saying it but they are probably unhappy with DeSclafani after his games with the Dodgers and I think he would not have accepted the QO anyway. The draft pick is probably not going to make a difference.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 15:56:47 GMT -5
Unless they were doing him a favor, if they didn't think he would accept the QO, I can't see any reason for not extending it. It's possible the draft pick wouldn't make a difference, but I can't think of any team that would turn down a free 2nd-round draft pick. Even if a team somehow didn't think the pick would make a difference, I'm almost certain that with the pick comes an increase in the money that is allowed to be spent on one's draft picks. I believe the Giants have drafted in the recent past some players they believed they could sign cheaply so that they could, for instance, draft Kyle Harrison in the third round in 2020 and pay him first round money.
The Giants made some similar moves this past years, and I still wonder if they drafted pitcher Will Bednar instead of more highly-touted shortstop Khalil Watson. I'm no scout, but when I saw Watson's swing, he really jumped out at me. Many thought he would be drafted in the top five. The Giants drafted Bednar and paid him $3,647,500, which enabled them to spend more on lower draft picks than had they drafted Watson, who as drafted two spots later by the Marlins, who paid him nearly a million more.
It's not too often that a player jumps out at me, but Watson did -- even before I knew how highly-touted he was. That said, in Mr. Zaidi I trust. But I'll be watching Watson with interest to see how he develops. And of course hoping that Bednar does indeed turn out to be even better than Watson.
As we've discussed, draft choices are key to developing a strong team and elongating its success. The #1 factor in the Giants' success in the early 10's was their drafting of Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey. All but Matt were top 10 picks, and Tim, Madison and Buster were drafted in consecutive years (2006, 2007 and 2008). Because Buster was a college player, all four were strong factors in their 2010 World Championship.
As you mentioned, DeSclafani's troubles with the Dodgers may be why he appears to be lower on the Giants' wish list than some others.
I criticized the A's for not offering a QO to closer Liam Hendriks a year ago. I doubt he would have accepted it, and when he wound up signing a four-year pact with the Blue Jays, the A's received no compensation. I surmised that the A's didn't proffer the QO because they were short on cash.
The Giants are NOT short on cash, at least as far as I know. I am surprised they didn't make the QO, but they must have other pitchers ranked ahead of Anthony and want to keep their options open. If Anthony didn't accept the QO, the Giants would have gotten a draft pick. If he did accept, they seemingly could have traded him if they were able to sign the pitchers they had rated above him.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 22, 2021 16:44:54 GMT -5
Unless they were doing him a favor, if they didn't think he would accept the QO, I can't see any reason for not extending it. It's possible the draft pick wouldn't make a difference, but I can't think of any team that would turn down a free 2nd-round draft pick. Even if a team somehow didn't think the pick would make a difference, I'm almost certain that with the pick comes an increase in the money that is allowed to be spent on one's draft picks. I believe the Giants have drafted in the recent past some players they believed they could sign cheaply so that they could, for instance, draft Kyle Harrison in the third round in 2020 and pay him first round money. The Giants made some similar moves this past years, and I still wonder if they drafted pitcher Will Bednar instead of more highly-touted shortstop Khalil Watson. I'm no scout, but when I saw Watson's swing, he really jumped out at me. Many thought he would be drafted in the top five. The Giants drafted Bednar and paid him $3,647,500, which enabled them to spend more on lower draft picks than had they drafted Watson, who as drafted two spots later by the Marlins, who paid him nearly a million more. It's not too often that a player jumps out at me, but Watson did -- even before I knew how highly-touted he was. That said, in Mr. Zaidi I trust. But I'll be watching Watson with interest to see how he develops. And of course hoping that Bednar does indeed turn out to be even better than Watson. As we've discussed, draft choices are key to developing a strong team and elongating its success. The #1 factor in the Giants' success in the early 10's was their drafting of Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey. All but Matt were top 10 picks, and Tim, Madison and Buster were drafted in consecutive years (2006, 2007 and 2008). Because Buster was a college player, all four were strong factors in their 2010 World Championship. As you mentioned, DeSclafani's troubles with the Dodgers may be why he appears to be lower on the Giants' wish list than some others. I criticized the A's for not offering a QO to closer Liam Hendriks a year ago. I doubt he would have accepted it, and when he wound up signing a four-year pact with the Blue Jays, the A's received no compensation. I surmised that the A's didn't proffer the QO because they were short on cash. The Giants are NOT short on cash, at least as far as I know. I am surprised they didn't make the QO, but they must have other pitchers ranked ahead of Anthony and want to keep their options open. If Anthony didn't accept the QO, the Giants would have gotten a draft pick. If he did accept, they seemingly could have traded him if they were able to sign the pitchers they had rated above him. Maybe in this case they were drafting for need instead of "best player available". If Desclafani rejected the qualifying offer and someone else signs him, compensation would have been a pick after Competitive Balance Round B which would have been between the second and third rounds and as far as I can tell, they don't get international slot money. From mlb.com: • If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.
The 15 teams in this category: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees.
This is the penalty the Giants face if they sign a player who rejected the QO (also from mlb.com): • All other teams will lose their second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.
Teams in this group: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees.I'm guessing that the compensatory pick would have been at the end of round 2.5 Right now, the news is that they're pursuing Cobb with no QO attached. The thing they really want to hold onto is the slot money. |
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 18:50:54 GMT -5
I like Cobb.
Now that the Giants have re-signed Alex, I'm more confused than ever. In theory, at least, the Giants could have re-signed DeSclafani at a lower price if competing teams had to pony up compensation pick for signing Anthony. But perhaps the Giants had had enough conversation with Anthony that they felt they could re-sign him reasonably no matter what. MLBTR had his signing pegged at 3/$42 million, and the Giants signed him for $7 million less. I like the signing.
MLBTR pegged Cobb at 2/$16, and I like him at that figure.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 19:01:28 GMT -5
I don't know how the Giants are spreading out Anthony's contract, but if we assume $13 million would be attributable to this season, that might still leave $90 million to spend on 2022.
Cobb has had all kinds of health issues, but his ERA last season was 3.76, and it appears to have been real. His xERA was 3.76, his FIP was 2.92 (!), his xFIP was 3.38, and his SIERRA was 3.83. His called plus swinging strike percentage was a career high 30%. His K% was a career high 24.9%, and his K-BB% was a career-high 16.5%. His peripherals looked very good overall.
Where do the Giants sign?
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 19:04:13 GMT -5
I know that Boly thinks that fantasy baseball is ridiculous, but when one plays fantasy, he develops a much better knowledge of players. Boly also doesn't follow the Giants' minor leaguers, and fantasy tends to get one more interested in minor league players, which can lead to a particular like for following those of the team one roots for.
If not for fantasy, I likely would know little about Alex Cobb, but hopefully he will become the Giants' next great reclamation project.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 19:07:35 GMT -5
The Giants are now said to be close to signing Alex Wood for two years at $10 million per year plus. I like that a lot too. And they are said to be making a "big push" toward Cobb. Throw in Gausman or even Jon Gray, and I'm ready to get down to the fine tuning. And there should still be lots of money left over for contingencies.
I'm getting excited. In Mr. Zaidi I trust!
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 19:10:31 GMT -5
Maybe I don't have Brandon Belt's $18.4 million QO deducted from my numbers. But it still appears to me that the Giants have plenty of money left. Maybe even Freddie Freeman money!  |
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2021 19:14:22 GMT -5
One thing I like is that the Giants are establishing a pattern of signing players they think they can help improve, then signing those same players to longer-term contracts after the improvement. I think that bodes well for future signings as needed. The Giants could be becoming the place for players to come to rebuild their careers.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 22, 2021 19:57:48 GMT -5
Why would they get Freeman when they got Belt?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 22, 2021 21:27:32 GMT -5
Unless they were doing him a favor, if they didn't think he would accept the QO, I can't see any reason for not extending it. It's possible the draft pick wouldn't make a difference, but I can't think of any team that would turn down a free 2nd-round draft pick. Even if a team somehow didn't think the pick would make a difference, I'm almost certain that with the pick comes an increase in the money that is allowed to be spent on one's draft picks. I believe the Giants have drafted in the recent past some players they believed they could sign cheaply so that they could, for instance, draft Kyle Harrison in the third round in 2020 and pay him first round money. The Giants made some similar moves this past years, and I still wonder if they drafted pitcher Will Bednar instead of more highly-touted shortstop Khalil Watson. I'm no scout, but when I saw Watson's swing, he really jumped out at me. Many thought he would be drafted in the top five. The Giants drafted Bednar and paid him $3,647,500, which enabled them to spend more on lower draft picks than had they drafted Watson, who as drafted two spots later by the Marlins, who paid him nearly a million more. It's not too often that a player jumps out at me, but Watson did -- even before I knew how highly-touted he was. That said, in Mr. Zaidi I trust. But I'll be watching Watson with interest to see how he develops. And of course hoping that Bednar does indeed turn out to be even better than Watson. As we've discussed, draft choices are key to developing a strong team and elongating its success. The #1 factor in the Giants' success in the early 10's was their drafting of Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey. All but Matt were top 10 picks, and Tim, Madison and Buster were drafted in consecutive years (2006, 2007 and 2008). Because Buster was a college player, all four were strong factors in their 2010 World Championship. As you mentioned, DeSclafani's troubles with the Dodgers may be why he appears to be lower on the Giants' wish list than some others. I criticized the A's for not offering a QO to closer Liam Hendriks a year ago. I doubt he would have accepted it, and when he wound up signing a four-year pact with the Blue Jays, the A's received no compensation. I surmised that the A's didn't proffer the QO because they were short on cash. The Giants are NOT short on cash, at least as far as I know. I am surprised they didn't make the QO, but they must have other pitchers ranked ahead of Anthony and want to keep their options open. If Anthony didn't accept the QO, the Giants would have gotten a draft pick. If he did accept, they seemingly could have traded him if they were able to sign the pitchers they had rated above him. Disco =3 years $36 million. |
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 15:06:55 GMT -5
I think the world of Freddie Freeman, who might be one of the very few first basemen who is as good a fielder as Belt. I liked giving Belt the QO, and I would be fine with extending him an additional season. I would be most interested in Freddie if the DH becomes universal, which may be the case in the new Players Agreement. He's also played third base and could probably play second, but I don't know how good he would be defensively there.
But if the DH becomes universal, I'd love to have Freddie or Jorge Soler. Freddie wouldn't come cheaply, but I believe he likely will live up to his new contract. And I think he would fit the Giants' chemistry.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2021 15:09:07 GMT -5
I think the Giants got a nice deal in re-signing Anthony. Apparently they did too. =)
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 9:29:40 GMT -5
With Zaidi's comments the other day, it was clear to me why they did not offer Desclafani the QO. Talks had already taken place during the season and it was felt that the contract would end up to be around the 3y/$36m that he signed for. As such, there was no reason to extend the QO and it would have ended up hurting the Giants if he accepted it or hurting Descalfani if the QO attachment lowered his potential offers.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 24, 2021 11:14:23 GMT -5
Just to give you some perspective, DeSclafani's deal is the biggest in the Farhan era.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2021 12:27:51 GMT -5
Very good point, Reeder. Gausman's QO of $18.9 last season still has the highest annual average. But didn't DeSclafani kind of blow away La Stella's 3/$21 or something?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 6:20:16 GMT -5
Matt, you say you're surprised the Giants didn't make an $18.4 million Qualifying Offer to DeSclafani, that you think it would have been a win had he accepted it. Later you said or agreed that the Giants now have Logan Webb and three #4's, implying that Anthony is merely a #4.
If you say Anthony was worth $18.4 million for a one-year contract, doesn't that conflict with calling him a #4? I'll bet there aren't 40 pitchers making $18.4 million per season. Sounds more like a #2, doesn't it?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 9, 2021 6:21:26 GMT -5
Farhan makes his biggest deal, and it's to only a #4 starter? Did I misunderstand that you agreed with Boly that Anthony is only a #4 starter? Just another "guy?"
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 17:45:27 GMT -5
Do we know of any #4 starters we would be willing to offer 1/$18.4? Yet, Matt, you felt DeSclafani was worth that to the Giants.
I'm going off the top of my head without any study at all, but I'm thinking:
#1 -- $25-$50 million per season
#2 -- $15-$25 million per season
#3 -- $10-$15 million per season
#4 -- $6-$10 million per season
#5 -- $1-$5 million per season
I don't think those are TOO far off. How do they look to the rest of you? Remember, these are one-year contracts. The longer the contract, the higher the risk, so the lower the Average Annual Value.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 17:52:16 GMT -5
Perhaps a little lower on the floor of the #4 and the ceiling of the #5.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 18:00:33 GMT -5
Did you know that last season there were three qualifying pitchers (162 innings or more) with ERA's over five? 11 with ERA's over four? 20 with ERA's over 3.50. A pitcher doesn't necessarily have to be great (or even good or even average or even not so good) to get innings.
Did you know there were only 19 qualifying pitchers with an ERA below 3.50? That there were only nine pitchers with over 168 innings pitched and an ERA under 3.17?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 18:04:27 GMT -5
Would we rather have DeSclafani, Wood and Cobb -- or Scherzer? Or Ray? Or Gausman? Or Stroman? Or any other single pitcher on the free agent market?
How high would we be willing to go for Rodon or Kershaw?
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 18, 2021 18:11:34 GMT -5
Last season Patrick Corbin was paid $24.4 million to pitch 172 innings at a 5.82 ERA. We weren't happy with Johnny Cueto's 115 innings with a 4.08 ERA at $22 million.
One could point to Corbin's throwing 57 more innings than Cueto and say that Johnny was as bad a deal as Corbin. But in those 57 added innings, Corbin yielded 59 more earned runs -- an ERA of 9.19.
Think signing starting pitching is a gamble?
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