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Post by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2021 21:27:37 GMT -5
Which free agents do we like the looks of most?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 5, 2021 0:37:15 GMT -5
Krukow likes Chris Taylor because he's multiple position like Bryant but a better all around fielder. Also likely to command a lot less than Bryant and signing him would weaken the Dodgers. Mike also said he'd get over him being a Dodger in ten minutes. I would agree.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 5, 2021 8:48:52 GMT -5
Over two weeks back Chris Taylor was the guy I said I wanted to, too
I think as you pointed out,Reed he can do all of the things that Bryant did, Sans the power, and do it all better.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2021 9:36:07 GMT -5
Taylor's salary expectations likely increased in the postseason. He's a very versatile but streaky player. One thing that worries me a bit is that his expected batting average was only .234, and his expected SLG was only .414. Those were both well down from his expected .271 and .489 in 2020, although they were higher than his paltry .228 and .375 expectations in 2019. One other thing that is bothersome is that Chris struck out 167 times in 507 at bats last season. In 2018, he led the NL in K's with 178. That's an awful lot of strikeouts for a player with decent but not great power. He had only a .737 OPS against right-handers last season, although he's hit them OK over his career. On the plus side, he's very good base runner, and he does have that versatility. Don't imagine there are too many in better position than Mr. Zaidi to judge him. Of course, Zaidi hasn't played the game beyond high school, so he probably doesn't know what the heck he's doing.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 5, 2021 10:56:45 GMT -5
Where would Taylor start if we did get him? His positions are 2nd, 3rd and the outfield.
La Stella will be the starting second baseman with Estrada getting time there as well.
I imagine Longoria and Flores will split time at third. Vossler getting time there is also possible.
So that leaves the outfield for Taylor, where we already have Yaz, Duggar, Slater, Ruf and hopefully Ramos.
If in fact we do get Taylor, the players affected the most would be Estrada, Vossler and Ramos. Three players that I want to see more of next season, not less.
I believe we could spend the money more wisely.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 5, 2021 12:31:41 GMT -5
Where would Taylor start if we did get him? His positions are 2nd, 3rd and the outfield. La Stella will be the starting second baseman with Estrada getting time there as well. I imagine Longoria and Flores will split time at third. Vossler getting time there is also possible. So that leaves the outfield for Taylor, where we already have Yaz, Duggar, Slater, Ruf and hopefully Ramos. If in fact we do get Taylor, the players affected the most would be Estrada, Vossler and Ramos. Three players that I want to see more of next season, not less. I believe we could spend the money more wisely. If we get to finally see Ramos, I'm good with not going wild on free agents. The thing is that 107 wins set a pretty high bar and I wonder if they feel any pressure to maintain that. I'm thinking 90 wins might be tough if San Diego rebounds. As such, I think they might splurge and with positions we need being thin, maybe not wisely. Most of the familiar names are old and the younger ones not very good.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2021 13:22:28 GMT -5
I don't know when a decision will be made on whether to implement a universal DH, but that would open up another starting lineup position.
The Giants have said they'll focus first on pitching, and that seems to clearly be their top need. Backup catcher might have just become a bigger issue. I think they need a center fielder more than any other position.
I like Steven Duggar's defense, and by being selectively more aggressive last season, he improved his power in particular. But he has yet to show he can hit left-handers, he still strikes out too much, and some of his improved hitting last season stemmed from good luck, much as he enjoyed in his rookie season before falling back significantly the next two seasons.
Dubon can play center field too, but his bat still needs improvement. Heliot might be able to play center at least part of the time until Luis Matos makes the majors. I believe Luis has a good shot at being a good enough center fielder, but he's only 19 and still a long way from the majors. There is concern about Heliot's speed in center, and while he played center when I saw him play in person, I thought he was a little late in his set up, although hopefully he has since improved in that area.
Slater's not bad, but he appears to be little more than the weak side of a platoon.
The Giants are likely to fall back some at the positions, but they do possess a good amount of depth. Hard to believe they can be as magical as last season though.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 5, 2021 14:15:53 GMT -5
Where would Taylor start if we did get him? His positions are 2nd, 3rd and the outfield. La Stella will be the starting second baseman with Estrada getting time there as well. I imagine Longoria and Flores will split time at third. Vossler getting time there is also possible. So that leaves the outfield for Taylor, where we already have Yaz, Duggar, Slater, Ruf and hopefully Ramos. If in fact we do get Taylor, the players affected the most would be Estrada, Vossler and Ramos. Three players that I want to see more of next season, not less. I believe we could spend the money more wisely. If we get to finally see Ramos, I'm good with not going wild on free agents. The thing is that 107 wins set a pretty high bar and I wonder if they feel any pressure to maintain that. I'm thinking 90 wins might be tough if San Diego rebounds. As such, I think they might splurge and with positions we need being thin, maybe not wisely. Most of the familiar names are old and the younger ones not very good. Reed, I totally agree with you.
I DON'T want to go zippy-nuts for free agents, but I truly believe we need a player who has the flexibility to do what Bryant was "supposed" to have been able to do.
That's why I want Taylor, and then I believe we should go all in for Guasman, DesClafani and Wood.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 5, 2021 19:07:45 GMT -5
So where do we play Taylor, Boly?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 5, 2021 21:48:47 GMT -5
He would be the rover when they do all that double switching, sort of like the role he plays now and what Kiki and Muncy did.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 5, 2021 23:26:54 GMT -5
I think that the best way to answer your question is to ask a question; where do you play Kris Bryant if we resign him?
He is more versatile than Bryant because he plays much better defense.
Kris Bryant played Left Field, Center Field, right field, third base, first base.
Like Reed said, he would be a Rover playing on a daily basis where he would be needed.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 6, 2021 11:26:11 GMT -5
The question is whether the 107 wins were a fluke or results of FarhanZ’s system. 107 wins is historically high so we have to adjust your goals. It’ll probably take 100 wins to win the division, 90 for wild card. I would prefer to have a perennial team with a steady pipeline. I believe to achieve that it will need focus on pitching and occasional free agent but avoid top tier guys. That would mean Bryant is out. Doing it the Dodgers way is a money pit. They have hit luxury tax and if they sign QO players, the penalties are stiff in terms of draft picks and international signing bonus.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 6, 2021 13:14:44 GMT -5
The question is whether the 107 wins were a fluke or results of FarhanZ’s system. 107 wins is historically high so we have to adjust your goals. It’ll probably take 100 wins to win the division, 90 for wild card. I would prefer to have a perennial team with a steady pipeline. I believe to achieve that it will need focus on pitching and occasional free agent but avoid top tier guys. That would mean Bryant is out. Doing it the Dodgers way is a money pit. They haven’t hit luxury tax stage yet but it could be hefty . Reed, I totally agree! And I've posted that very thing many times.
We MUST improve our pitching and based upon the stuff out there in FA... Outside of Stroman, I start with our top 3 guys.
But Taylor is exactly the type of player we need.
I mean, what was the point of getting Bryant?
He came in without one set position to play and we moved him all over the place.
Having Taylor means we DON'T need to carry a back up SS or outfielder because he can play all of them.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 6, 2021 13:47:12 GMT -5
The point of getting Bryant was to put the Giants in the best possible position to win the World Series, beginning with making the playoffs, which at the trade deadline weren't guaranteed. Here's a question: If the Giants had won it all, would they have re-signed Bryant? Let's assume he had continued to play the rest of the postseason as he did in the first series.
Boly makes a good point that Taylor's versatility would be quite helpful, particularly his ability to play shortstop. He could give Crawford the occasional blow against southpaws, and the Giants would still be strong at the position if Brandon got hurt. That said, I think Chris is likely to fall of a little at the plate, and at just 31, one would think he'll command at least three years.
How much do we think it would take to re-sign Belt, Gausman, DeSclafani and Wood, and add Taylor? I'm thinking somewhere between $200K and $250K in total. Maybe even more. Then again, the Giants could spend that much on a single free agent if they chose to do so.
How much would we go for each one of the five players? If the Giants WERE to entertain Bryant, which they don't seem at all likely to do, how high would we go for him? How much would we pay for Stroman?
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 6, 2021 15:46:14 GMT -5
Boly- I think that the best way to answer your question is to ask a question; where do you play Kris Bryant if we resign him?
Boagie- That is a great question. I suppose we'd play him much like we did during this last season when he came here. But because we did that Estrada was left off the roster, which could result in Estrada or Vossler being left off the roster if we decide to get Taylor this time around. I don't think that's making us better, that's spending money where we don't need it.
Next season our projected infielders would be:
Belt (assuming he's resigned) La Stella Crawford Longoria Flores (I believe he has a team option) Estrada Vossler
The outfield:
Yazstremski Duggar Slater Ruf Ramos
Ramos, Estrada, and Vossler deserve their chance in my opinion..so who do you replace with Taylor? I don't think you're getting much of an upgrade anywhere with Taylor, if at all. I would be up for upgrading in centerfield, but I don't think Taylor is that. I'd prefer Marte on a one or two year deal, or as I said before I really like Bryan Reynolds whom is said to be on the trading block.
Or would it be best to just focus on pitching? Kendall Graveman is a free agent. I like the idea of bolstering our bullpen as that has become a bigger part of the game.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 6, 2021 18:09:20 GMT -5
The Giants also have Donovan Solano with arbitration rights. They may well decide he's going to be too expensive and either work out a less expensive deal or trade his rights. But they do control him if they want him.
Taylor may be better than all the listed players (plus Solano) except for Belt, Crawford and maybe Ruf. (Yaz's name is a tough one to spell, but I say to myself Yas-truh-zehm-skee, which quickly translates to Yastrzemski.) Of course, he's also going to be more expensive than the others.
The most comparable player to Taylor would likely be Estrada, who can play both keystone positions. The next closest might be Solano. Flores does have a team option, which will almost surely be exercised. since it's only $3.25 million higher than his buyout. I suspect the Giants will at least check Taylor out. Position-wise, he seems like a nice fit. My concern is that his best hitting might be behind him.
Slater and Ramos are similar in that they both hit lefties better. They're probably fairy close in center field, although I think Slater might enjoy a slight edge there. Ramos is more versatile in that he hits right-handers better than Slater seems to. In other words, Slater is a platoon player, whereas Ramos may have the ability to play every day. The Giants will be quite disappointed if he isn't eventually an everyday outfielder, and hopefully he can play any of the three spots there.
I suspect that once they fill their rotation, the Giants' top priority might indeed be the bullpen. But I would be surprised if they spend a lot of money there.
I like the idea of Graveman, but his expected ERA of 3.65 was more than double his 1.77 actual ERA. I wouldn't pay him in accordance with is actual ERA, but I'm interested if the price is right. I must apologize for not having them at my fingertips, but there are quite a few other relievers who might be of interest. One thing that is concerning about the Giants' relievers is that almost to a man, their ERA's were anywhere from a little lower than a lot lower than their expected ERA's this past season. Regression seems likely.
I would target guys whose actual ERA's were clearly higher than their expected ERA's or who are coming off an injury and might therefore be cheaper than otherwise. I suspect the Giants will target guys who have fallen on hard times but whom they think they can help improve.
If the Giants feel Taylor will continue to hit and they can get him for a good price, his versatility truly fits, as Boly said.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 6, 2021 19:04:56 GMT -5
Rog- I like the idea of Graveman, but his expected ERA of 3.65 was more than double his 1.77 actual ERA. I wouldn't pay him in accordance with is actual ERA, but I'm interested if the price is right.
Boagie- Graveman changed his pitch repertoire and switched his role from a starter to a reliever in 2020 I believe, so the expected ERA before last season was really just a blind guess. He has one of the best sinkers and sliders in baseball and a plus fastball. He can be a bargain because he has closer stuff but doesn't have the reputation as one yet, so likely he can be lured in with less than what closers are making.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 6, 2021 19:39:00 GMT -5
I haven't done a good enough job of explaining expected ERA, Matt. Expected ERA is the ERA predicted by how the ball is hit against a pitcher based on exit velocity and launch angle. A pitcher has little control over whether a batter catches a ball once it's hit, but he has some control over how hard and at what angle the batter hits it. Analytically, one looks for pitchers who more or less pitched in bad luck and didn't get as good results as they should have. Mechanically and pitch selection-wise, one looks for pitchers who can improve from improved mechanics or improved pitch selection.
Based on expected ERA, Graveman pitched well, but not quite like a closer. I think you're on the right track. The Giants are highly unlikely to play what a proven closer would command. I'd have to look for them, but there are other pitchers who pitched more like closers than Graveman did.
Here's a thought. I believe someone already mentioned him, but the Giants' first round draft pick has a brother named David Bednar who closed for the Pirates for a while before he got injured. If Bednar were available, I would have an interest. Bednar was replaced by former Giants Chris Stratton when Bednar was injured, and Stratton pitched about as well as Graveman did.
There are other guys who might make good candidates too, but I would need to look them up. I had a better handle on it a month ago. If you want to try to dig up some candidates yourself, go to BaseballSavant.com, then to Leaderboards, then Pitching Expected Statistics. It's kind of fun to try to get a little ahead of things. Of course, we're only trying to see who might be intriguing based on some analytics. If we want to expand on that, Fan Graphs is another good source.
Maybe Boly can give us some ideas whom the Giants might pick up based on possible improvement he sees from mechanical improvements or improvements in pitch selection. Fan Graphs has some info that might be helpful in the latter, and I believe so does Baseball Savant. We might as well try to look at things like the Giants are likely to.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 6, 2021 20:20:15 GMT -5
By the way, Matt, you had a good idea sort of in reverse. If we look at players whose projections -- which I believe are still available on Fan Graphs -- were much better than their actual performance, we might be able to couple that with injury information or other factors to find pitchers who are actually pretty good but just had a down season. Sometimes injuries or other factors can show us that the decline might be only temporary.
I believe it was you who mentioned Marcus Stroman. I was interested in him last spring because he added a new pitch (and pitched quite well in spring training IIRC), but while his ERA fell to an impressive 3.02, his expected ERA was much higher at 4.33. His Fielding Independent Pitching, his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching and his SIERRA were somewhat more supportive at 3.49, 3.57 and 3.86. Baseball-Reference is projecting him for a 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2022, and I would take those.
The xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERRA and 2022 projection for the three Giants pitchers are:
Gausman -- 3.49, 3.00, 3.28, 3.42, 3.54
DeSclafani -- 3.92, 3.62, 3.95, 4.11, 3.85
Wood -- 3.87, 3.48, 3.44, 3.60, 4.15
Stroman looks pretty close to DeSclafani and Wood with those numbers, although not surprisingly he's behind Gausman. I think Wood could be the sleeper if he can stay healthy. Notice too that the three other guys aren't too far off Gausman, except that his numbers are very consistent across the board, whereas the other three each have one component that rises above 4.00.
I'm pretty sure Gausman is the Giants' top target, but the competition will almost certainly be tough. How high would we go? Kevin will turn 31 on January (oops) 6th, six days before Wood. DeSclafani will turn 32 on April 18th. Stroman is the youngest. He'll turn 31 on May Day.
Would we give DeSclafani a Qualifying Offer? I believe I would. Wood should be available for the lowest price of the quartet, while Gausman will almost certainly be the most expensive. Still no Top 50 Free Agents from MLB Trade Rumors. I read that they said the article would be out early in the week, and I thought they meant this week, but apparently it was later than I thought, and they meant next week. I would think all four pitchers will make the top 50, with the order being Gausman, Stroman, DeSclafani and Wood. Gausman should be top 10; Stroman, top 25, DeSclafani, top 35; and Wood top 50 (or honorable mention).
Stroman isn't eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer, which makes him more attractive. Steven Matz isn't receiving a QO either. If the Giants can improve his curve ball or slider, he could be of interest. His sinking fastball was OK last season, and his and change up was quite good. But both his breaking balls failed him, limiting him to a 3.82 ERA. Especially if they don't re-sign Wood, the Giants could use a lefty starter, so if they see him as an improvement possibility, he might have a chance. Until last season he pitched for the Mets, so Mark and Mordy likely know a little about him.
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