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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 8, 2021 23:52:22 GMT -5
Any particular reason, bogie?
Starling Marte has a pretty Dynamic player!
Unless he's got some kind of injury I don't know about, I'd give him a good long look
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 9, 2021 0:17:06 GMT -5
Any particular reason, bogie? Starling Marte has a pretty Dynamic player! Unless he's got some kind of injury I don't know about, I'd give him a good long look If you remember he's the guy I wanted the Giants to get at the trade deadline. I agree he's a dynamic player and I think centerfield is our weakest spot. But he's 33 now, in a few years he won't be dynamic anymore and he won't have the legs to cover ground in CF anymore. 2 years, yes. 4 years, no. Ramos will be here next season, Matos and Bishop probably the season after. At that point we'll have a pretty crowded outfield of young guys who I'm sure we'll rather have out there than an aging Marte.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 9, 2021 9:43:42 GMT -5
He's 33?!?!
Wow!
I thought he was like 28 29 years old!
That's 33 years old, I agree with you. No thanks for a four-year deal
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 9, 2021 10:16:31 GMT -5
Maybe you're thinking of Ketel Marte, the player for the Diamondbacks, he's younger. He's even more dynamic, I'd definitely lock him up for 4 years, but he's not a free agent. Maybe the Diamondbacks would like to talk trade?
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 9, 2021 10:27:27 GMT -5
Maybe you're thinking of Ketel Marte, the player for the Diamondbacks, he's younger. He's even more dynamic, I'd definitely lock him up for 4 years, but he's not a free agent. Maybe the Diamondbacks would like to talk trade? I obviously mis understood, boagie, Ketel is the guy about whom I thought you were speaking.
Sorry about that.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 12:41:20 GMT -5
Matt makes a good point about Starling Marte's age. Speed players tend to slow down, sometimes pretty quickly.
When Starling joined the A's at the deadline, he stole bases like a fiend. Obviously a good sign. But his thefts slowed down considerably is final 29 games of the season. After stealing 20 bases in his first 27 games with the A's, Marte was limited to just five in his final 29 contests. His average dropped off in the second half of September as well. Was he injured? Perhaps, although he did steal TWO bases in the A's third-to-final game.
Still, Rickey Henderson stole 66 bases at age 39, when he was older than Marte would be when a four-year contract ended. Marte's 47 steals last season tied his career high, and nearly doubled his 2019 total.
So let's look to see if Starling has slowed down much. His speed figures over the past five seasons indicate he hasn't slowed down much. He's fallen off only half a foot per second from 2017. His top average speed was 28.9 feet per second in 2017, and it was still 28.4 last season.
It's counterintuitive, but it's KETEL Marte's speed we should perhaps be more concerned about. Back in 2017, Ketel at 29.2 feet per second was slightly faster than Starling. But Ketel has fallen off each season since, and last season was at only 26.7 feet per second -- 1.7 feet per second slower than Starling. Since 2017, Ketel has slowed by 2.0 feet per second MORE than Starling.
Whereas Starling tied his career high in steals, Ketel stole only two bases all season. Back in 2017, Starling (4.12 seconds) and Ketel (4.13 seconds) were virtually identical sprinting to first base. Last season, Starling's 4.22 second was a full three-tenths of a second faster than Ketel's 4.52. We might remember too that Ketel is a switch hitter, so most of his sprints to first base come from the left side, whereas Starling bats solely right-handed.
These facts illustrate how we as fans dissect players with a dull knife, while executives like Mr. Zaidi are able to perform their analyses with scalpel-like precision.
I understand why you guys like Ketel. He's a good player too, and he's younger. But if you're looking at the speed to play center field and how it might decline, Starling has done a good job of maintaining his speed, whereas Ketel's speed has declined each season from 2017, and his total decline is concerning.
And if we want to see how it played out in the field, last season Starling was four outs above average defensively, whereas Ketel was four outs below average. I think it's fair to mention that Ketel suffered injuries last season, but his speed decline from 29.2 feet per second in 2017 to 28.7 in 2018 to 27.9 in 2019 to 27.7 in 2020 to 26.7 last season has been concerningly consistent.
Are we worried about the wrong Marte? The facts indicate we may be. Putting this in perspective, if we would be willing to sign Ketel for four years, from a speed standpoint, at least, we should probably be willing to do the same with Starling. If the Giants are looking for center field defense, last season Starling was much faster than Ketel, and it resulted in eight more defensive outs. That's significant.
Now, if you want a reason to prefer Ketel, his expected weighted On Base Average last season based on how he hit the ball coupled with his strikeouts and walks was .368, 27 points higher than Starling. So one can make an argument for Ketel.
But if we're worried about Starling because he might slow down and not about Ketel's slowing down because Ketel is younger, we appear to be far off base. Mr. Zaidi and his staff know all these things (and more), whereas we as fans often think we know more than we truly do.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 9, 2021 13:48:51 GMT -5
Rickey was juicing, so the age thing doesn't really apply here, in my opinion.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 9, 2021 16:07:43 GMT -5
MLBTR came out with its Top 50 Free Agents today. Here are some notes: #2. Corey Seager 10/$305 -- All three writers feel the Dodgers will lose Seager to the Yankees. #3. Freddie Freeman 6/$180 -- I suspect Freddie will re-sign with the Braves. Two out of three of MLBTR's writers predicted as much. But since Freddie shows no signs of slowing down, I think 6/$180, as high as it is, is a very fair price for Freddie. #4. Kris Bryant 5/$160 -- Kris is younger and more versatile, but I don't think he's near the player Freddie is. I wouldn't re-sign Kris at this price, and it appears Mr. Zaidi is just as unlikely to do so. Two of the three writers think he'll sign with the Mariners. 5. Kevin Gausman 6/$138 -- This is longer than Mr. Zaidi would like to go, but that annual rate seems fair, and all three writers predict Kevin will indeed re-sign. 6. Marcus Semien 6/$138 -- One writer thinks the Dodgers will sign Semien, but I personally think Gausman is a better value at this price. 9. Max Scherzer 3/$120 -- All three writers think Max will re-sign with the Dodgers. 11. Marcus Stroman 5/$110 -- One writer thinks he'll sign with the Dodgers. I personally would much rather have Gausman at 6/$138. 13. Starling Marte 4/$80 -- One writer think he'll sign with the Giants, who definitely need a center fielder. Marte is intriguing, so I need to give this one a look. 16. Chris Taylor 4/$64 -- Not one of the writers thinks he will re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with the Giants. I think the price is too rich when coupled with QO compensation. 17. Raisel Iglesias 4/$56 -- One writer thinks the Dodgers will sign Iglesias, who was REALLY good last season. 19. Jon Gray 4/$56 -- One writer thinks he'll sign with the Giants. I need to research, but I'm a bit intrigued with his leaving Coors. No QO attached. 22. Anthony DeSclafani 3/$42 -- No one expects him with either the Giants or Dodgers. I think if the Giants had offered Anthony a QO, he would have taken it. Perhaps they didn't want to tie up that much money this early. 23. Justin Verlander 2/$40 -- Two out of three writers think he'll sign with the Giants. If the medical reports are good, Mr. Zaidi might indeed go two years. 25. Jorge Soler 3/$36 -- If the NL adopts the DH, I'd make way for Jorge. 26. Alex Wood 3/$30 -- None of the three writers expect the Giants to re-sign Alex, but I, er, would. 28. Kendall Graveman 3/$27 -- One writer expects him to sign with the Dodgers. Boly liked him for the Giants, but I wouldn't bite. 29. Kenley Jansen 2/$26 -- None expect the Dodgers to sign him, and I wouldn't want the Giants to do so. 32. Michael Conforto 1/$20 -- No one expects the Giants or Dodgers here, but at 1/$20 I need to do more research. 33. Clayton K. of the Dodgers 1/$20 -- No one expects either the Dodgers or Giants. That the Dodgers didn't offer him a QO doesn't sound good for the health of his arm. 34. Yusei Kikuchi 2/$20 -- No one expects the Giants or Dodgers, but he threw 95.2 mph, so I wonder if he could be a teaching candidate for the Giants. 36. Brandon Belt 1/$18.4 -- All three writers expect him to accept the QO from the Giants. 39. Alex Cobb 2/$16 -- No one expects him to sign with either the Giants or Dodgers, but I'm definitely intrigued. 41. Eddie Rosario 2/$15 -- If he could play first base or DH, I'm highly intrigued. 46. Corey Kluber 1/$12 -- One writer thinks he'll sign with the Giants, but I'm leery of whether it would be successful. 49. Jan Gomes 2/$10 -- If the Giants have any doubt about Joey Bart, I'd jump on Gomes, who is good on both sides of the ball. 50. Andrew Heaney 1/$6 -- Signed with Dodgers for 1/$8.5. Looks to me like another smart move by the Dodgers, and I wonder if they preempted the Giants. the Giants are probably not going to sign all the guys you mentioned. At most two pitchers and one position player and call it a winter
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 16:22:48 GMT -5
That's a good point, Matt, although Barry Bonds lost a lot of speed despite using. Still, your point is a good one.
That said, many fast players have shown significant signs of slowing down by 33. Heck, Ketel Marte has shown significant signs by age 29. But Starling hasn't shown heavy signs yet. His 47 steals led the majors, and that total was nearly 50% higher than Trea Turner's 32. Turner finished in 3rd place in steals, immediately behind Whit Merrifield's 40.
Don't you agree the Marte to worry about is Ketel, who since 2017 has lost four-tenths of a second to first base, whereas Starling has lost only a tenth? I'm not saying so much that there isn't anything to worry about with Starling -- remember, I questioned why he stole only 5 bases in his final 29 games after stealing 20 in his first 27 -- but that we might want to look more closely at Ketel's speed decline. I think some here assumed that because Ketel is four years younger, he wasn't as much of a speed risk as Starling, but if we look at the facts, we see that despite being younger, Ketel's speed has declined perhaps four times as much the past four years as Starling's has. I guess one could argue that Ketel has already lost his blazing speed, so what's to worry about, but the worry seems to show up when we see that Starling was worth eight more outs defensively than Ketel last season. So even if Ketel DOESN'T lose any more speed -- and there is no reason to believe he won't -- Starling could lose a fair amount himself and perhaps still be a better center fielder than Ketel.
So I like our comment that Rickey may not be a fair comparison for Starling. But aren't you overlooking the larger issue with Ketel? My personal feeling is that one CAN make an argument for Ketel offensively, particularly since he's a switch hitter. That said, despite batting solely right-handed, Starling easily outhit Ketel against right-handers last season. Ketel simply CRUSHED southpaws.
Starling has had a long and successful career, one which has been better in its second half than in its first half. Ketel was very good in 2018 and excellent in 2019, but since 2019, his career has been declining along with his speed, which started to decline in 2018.
I haven't done a detailed comparison of the two players, but my initial look makes Starling appear to be the stronger bet. And much of the difference is because Ketel's speed has declined so much, allowing Starling to be the better center fielder. And isn't that what the Giants are looking for -- better defense in center field? A platoon of Yastrzemski and Slater or Ramos could probably hit well enough for a center fielder. But that pair likely wouldn't defend nearly as well as Starling alone. Duggar and Slater wouldn't be too bad defensively, but Steve especially would likely struggle at the plate.
That said, by being selectively aggressive, Duggar did improve at the plate in 2021. But his expected stats tell us his true level of improvement may have been overstated. Still, Steve appears to have done what I suggested (and which Boly said wouldn't work), and it seems to have paid off, particularly with more power -- and counter-intuitively, more walks.
Boly has played the game above the high school level. In the military and I believe in college. But that doesn't seem to have had nearly the importance he give it. I agree with him that there are things he can understand that someone else can't. I simply don't think those things are all that important, and if we use Boly's logic, we can see how it could actually work against him.
Here is how. Boly says that having played beyond high school, there are things he can understand that those who haven't played beyond high school can't. If we extend that logic, someone who has played in the minor leagues can understand things that Boly can't. And someone who has played in the majors can understand even more things. Someone like me, who hasn't played beyond high school, understands what he doesn't know. Boly can find himself falling prey to thinking he knows more than he truly does, and because we're talking here about major league baseball, using his own logic, there are things he doesn't understand about MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL that may limit him, particularly if he doesn't understand that he doesn't know them.
As they say, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. I myself was disappointed when Brandon Crawford changed his swing several seasons ago to help him generate more power, and I asked Boly what changes he had noticed. He didn't have an answer -- or least not what was easy to see on video. I'm not in the least saying that I noticed it. But once I read about it, it was easy to see. I expected a guy like Boly, if he truly had a big advantage by having played beyond high school, to have noticed that. I would have thought that he would point it out to me, rather than the other way around.
With Duggar, what I suggested was counter-intuitive. Boly was absolutely correct that Steven needed to reach base more often. But I think that my logic from viewing how much better Steven hit on the first three pitches than on pitches thereafter and believing that if Steven could hit better, pitchers would pitch him slightly more carefully, and he would walk more often, was sound.
By hitting the first three pitches nearly 40% of the time after having hit them only about 30% of the time earlier in his career, Steven improve his average in 2021 from .234 in 2019 and .176 in 2020 to a more reasonable .257 in 2021. At least as importantly, he improved his isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) from .107 in 2019 and .059 in 2020 to a healthy .179 in 2021, and he improved his walk rate from 5.7% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020 to a nearly satisfactory 9.1% in 2021.
If all those gains were real, I could see Steven in the strong side of a center field platoon. But Statcast indicates some of the improvements were illusory.
And thus the Giants could use a center fielder. I'm not sure whether Starling Marte is that guy or not, but I don't believe Ketel is. Ketel no longer seems to be fast enough to play a good center field.
The speed concern about Marte was a good one -- but it may have been with the wrong Marte.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 16:53:29 GMT -5
I don't think we know enough about Verlander's health to know whether he might be worth 2/$40 million.
Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.
As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).
Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”
By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”
It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.
The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.
Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.
Certainly Verlander is a risk. He's about to turn 39. But at ages 36 and 37, he finished 1st and 2nd in the Cy Young voting. I'm skeptical along with you, Matt, but it would be a lot better to make a mistake with Verlander at around 2/$40 than with say Carlos Correa at around 10/$320. I think it is more likely that the Giants would take a chance on Verlander at 2/$40 than on Max Scherzer at 3/$120.
But it likely all comes down to what their scouts saw in Verlander's showcase and in what the medical reports show. Verlander's signing would be the highest-profile move Mr. Zaidi has made, and on a short-term contract and at "only" around $20 million per season, he might be willing to make it.
If Verlander's arm is sound, one encouraging factor is that Justin's slider was nearly as effective in 2019 (his last full season) as it had been in his previous career combined. In 2019, Verlander's fastball still averaged 94.6 mph (faster than in 2013 through 2016), but it was no longer his best pitch as had been case over most of his career.
One thing I can say is that there have been only 28 seasons by pitchers 39 or older this millenium that were worth 3 WAR or more. And I don't think any of them were coming back from an injury as serious as Verlander suffered. So the odds appear to be against Justin.
I am confident that Mr. Zaidi will make a good decision here. I simply don't think we have the knowledge to know one way or the other. I'm leaning in Matt's direction here, but how the heck would I know? I simply don't have enough information to make an informed decision.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 9, 2021 18:56:08 GMT -5
Starling Marte’s closest comps now are Al Martin, Roberto Kelly, and old Jacoby Ellsbury. Two years max and no more.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 9, 2021 19:11:47 GMT -5
Ketel Marte’s comp is Scooter Gennett when he was good and then got bad
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Post by reedonly on Nov 9, 2021 19:16:02 GMT -5
Looking at closest comp is useful because you get an idea of future career path. You know how Al Martin and Jacoby Ellsbury went.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 19:20:37 GMT -5
I agree with you on the use of comps, Reed, although I wonder if that is as useful when speed enters the picture as well as hitting and presumably fielding. I'm just not sure. But you are right about using the methodology overall, at least to the best of my knowledge. I myself have used comps more to see which players have had similar success overall, but until I can demonstrate otherwise, I'll go along with you here.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 19:35:09 GMT -5
As for your comment that you would go two years tops, I think that depends in part on how much the overall cost is. Comps could illustrate the chance of injury, which in the case of Ellsbury, could be fatal. Ellsbury never played beyond his age 33 season.
On the other hand, Jacoby led the league in steals with 52 in his age 29 season. He was still strong in that department at age 30 with 39 thefts. But he fell off to 21, 20 and 22 in his final three seasons. Marte has been far steadier, equaling at age 32 (last season) his career high of 47 steals. I don't have access to Ellsbury's speed decline or lack thereof, but as we saw, Starling Marte has been far steadier in that regard than the much younger Ketel.
I like too that at age 32 last season, Starling was within one point of his career high in average. He was also quite close to his career HIGH in OPS. I am slightly cautious though, since he batted 40 points above his expected BA. And, as I mentioned initially, he stole only five bases in his final 29 games with the A's after garnering 20 steals in his first 27 contests.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 19:43:09 GMT -5
Not sure where Scooter Gennett came from as a comp. Starling has had a long, successful career as a starting player, while except for an excellent 2018 season, Gennett had a shorter career as mostly a platoon player. Ironically, Baseball-reference.com, actually has KETEL as Scooter's closest comp, although I would think Ketel might be offended by that.
Baseball-reference.com uses comps for batters, so I wonder if they include the speed factor. They might. I just don't know.
One thing I notice is that Marte has never made more than $12.5 million per season. MLBTR is projecting $20 million per, which is pretty steep.
So I'm really up in the air here. One thing I'm confident of though is that some have placed too much confidence in Ketel, especially as a center fielder.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 19:49:03 GMT -5
Fan Graphs just came out with a highly detailed top 50 Free Agents list, a link to which I have copied below. Here is what they say about Starling: Like Semien, this makes Marte a bargain for teams that want to compete right this minute without locking up a position for a decade. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets could use that. The Astros could too, particularly if they don’t sign a big-ticket shortstop. Player Notes The 33-year-old Marte remains in top-of-the-scale physical condition and is coming off a career year, hitting .308/.381/.456 and generating a whopping 5.4 WAR while setting or tying personal bests for OBP (.381), walk rate (8%), and steals (47). It’s reasonable to expect him to continue to be an impact player for the next couple of years, and then merely a productive big leaguer for the life of his next contract considering that athletes like Marte, who is built as if the engineers at Ferrari designed a human person, tend to age well. Despite his age, Marte remains a plus runner (4.2 seconds home to first) and his feel and instincts on the bases are elite. He’s sixth in the majors in baserunning runs since he first debuted in 2012 blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 9, 2021 19:59:16 GMT -5
I'm not saying Starling Marte isn't a good ballplayer, he is. I'm just worried about locking up a player until they're 37. A lot of health issues can pop up when a player reaches his mid 30's, that's why so many players retire during those years.
I was actually a little shocked to see that prediction, I don't think Starling Marte will get that many years. He's a good player, but he lacks power, which seems to be a very important thing in today's game.
Ketel has more pop, switch hits, and plays 2nd, SS and CF. That makes him more valuable to the Giants especially.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 22:14:01 GMT -5
I see Ketel as a Chris Taylor type. I love his versatility, and I think he's a better hitter than Chris. But I don't think Ketel is a good enough defender to help the Giants as their regular center fielder. I could be wrong about that, but his steep decline in speed bothers me.
I would be very interested in acquiring Ketel, but I see him more as a second baseman, with an ability to fill in at shortstop or in center field.
You're right that Starling is an age risk. And you may well be right that he won't get four years. I doubt the Giants would give him more than three. I'm thinking that even 3/$60 would carry some risk, and that may not be enough to get him. But I do think he's a better center fielder than Ketel, and to be honest, I was shocked that Ketel had lost so much speed at such a young age. I would attribute it to injury, meaning a better chance of bouncing back, but the decline was steep even before 2021.
Apparently Starling is built for speed, so perhaps he'll outlast what we would normally expect from a player of this age. The thing with free agents is that if they didn't carry some risk, their teams wouldn't have let them become free agents in the first place.
One thing that could make Starling more attractive to the Giants is that I think if he could play center field for two years, Luis Matos might be ready, allowing Starling to move to left. Matos is the guy I see in center long-term. I think Ramos, perhaps like Ketel, will lose too much speed to last there for long. Hunter Bishop is another possibility, although Hunter has had a hard time hitting in the minors. Perhaps he'll be a late bloomer.
I'm intrigued by Starling, who was thrown out only five times in 52 attempts last season, but like you, Matt and Boly, I'm concerned about the risk. Plus, the Giants' starting pitching is very unsettled at the moment. Unlike most years, I haven't really figured out how much money the Giants have to spend, although it's a much better situation than it's been in years. I did find several free agents who intrigued me, although some of them -- perhaps including Starling -- likely won't stand up to closer scrutiny.
As Matt said about Starling, he may command a lot of money for a guy who has modest power.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 22:17:44 GMT -5
A question for Matt: Would you sign Graveman for the expected 3/$27?
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Post by reedonly on Nov 10, 2021 13:08:57 GMT -5
Graveman might be useful as a swing man if they decide to do more opener games or bullpen games. Also, might suck up innings if they do not re sign Desclafani or Wood. Baseball reference comp would be Kamaniecki or Mark Gardner.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 11, 2021 14:28:27 GMT -5
3/$27 is too much IMO to spend on the role you describe, Reed. That's getting close to closer money. I think Graveman could close, but would he be a significant improvement over Doval and McGee or even Rogers? I think the Giants should look at lower-priced relievers with potential upside. Not that they couldn't use a closer, but the combination of the above trio isn't bad if they are supported by other relievers.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 17:15:43 GMT -5
In my opinion, they don’t need a closer so much as a Blake Treinen type of high leverage middle reliever.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 13:49:31 GMT -5
I agree, Reed. And while I like Graveman, I think it would be possible to get someone for less who can perform that job.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 13, 2021 16:10:36 GMT -5
Boly, it was definitely the 2016 team you said was the best in SF history, not the 2014 team. You were wrong about the 2016 team, of course, but they did get off to a spectacular start. They had the best record in baseball the first half of 2016. That they weren't nearly as good as you thought they were, however, was shown when they had the second-worst record in baseball that season's second half.
Why WOULD you have picked the 2014 Giants? That team won only 88 games in the regular season. It outscored its opponents by only 51 runs. (By comparison, this year's team won 107 games and outscored its opponents by 210 runs -- more than four times the differential. The 2014 Giants finished only 5th in runs scored, and their ERA was only 7th-best.
You talked up Michael Morse, and he was a good hitter that year, but not a spectacular one. He had a good-but-not-great .475 SLG and an even less stellar .811 OPS. He struck out 121 times in 438 at bats.
As a team, the Giants couldn't reach even a .700 OPS, although they came as close as possible at .699. The thing that made the 2014 Giants was that after posting a mediocre-at-best 4.72 ERA for the Red Sox prior to the trade deadline, Jake Peavy got swelteringly hot and posted a scorching 2.17 with the Giants. Among the six Giants starters, only Madison Bumgarner (18-10), Tim Lincecum (12-9 despite a 4.74 ERA, not strong enough for him to make the postseason roster until the World Series, where he pitched only once for 1.2 innings) and Peavy at 6-4 were over .500.
But it wasn't the 2014 team you thought was so good; it was the 2016 squad. What you missed in their hot start was how many key contributions they received from what were essentially Four A players, contributions that were highly unlikely to be repeated throughout the season. And in the second half, they weren't.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 13, 2021 16:27:57 GMT -5
I have a gut feeling that in 2024, Starling Marte will still be better than either Heliot Ramos or Hunter Bishop. I hope to be wrong, but Bishop has struggled thus far in his minor league career, and Ramos is coming off a mediocre 2021 season. Luis Matos I think may be better than Starling by then, although he'll be only 22 years old.
That said, Steamer is projecting Starling to have only a .776 OPS THIS season. Fan Graphs' median Crowdsourcing expectation is that Starling will receive 4/$72, which is more palatable than MLBTR's 4/$80, but still a little risky. I'm more than willing to trust whatever Mr. Zaidi decides. I might change my mind if I study Marte more, but as of this moment, I'm with Matt that four years at anything approaching $80 million is too much for Starling.
He would be exciting, but I'm not sure the production would be there.
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Post by reedonly on Nov 13, 2021 18:36:09 GMT -5
Might be better to just go with the kids in the outfield. They are going to have to bite the bullet sooner or later.
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Post by sharksrog on Nov 14, 2021 9:04:29 GMT -5
I think a lot will depend on how Mike Yastrzemski bounces back. He and possibly Darren Ruf could perhaps be everyday players in 2022. The rest are pretty much platoon players.
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