Thoughts and 3 Assumptions

[klaiggeb]

As an ex coach, I'm already looking ahead even though there are still so many unknowns.

So, based upon 2 assumptions, and yeah, I know, it makes an 'ass' out of you and "umption," as Samuel Jackson said in that movie with Gina Davis, here's what I see for the upcoming lineups.

Assumption 1-There is a DH next yer
Assumption 2-Ramos makes the squad
Assumption 3-Slater is moved, and Bryant, or someone like him, is retained, such as Chris Taylor.

Again, I reiterate, SO MANY UNKNOWNS, for the moment, this is what I see Kapler doing, not predicting.


VS RHP

La Stella
Belt
Wade
Crawford
Posey
Ruf-DH
Yaz
3B
Duggar

I don't care how well Posey did this year, I do NOT want him hitting 3, or 4. If I had my way, he'd hit behind Ruf.

VS

LHP

Right now, we DON'T have anyone who can lead off vs LHP, especially if Slater is moved.

But that said...

Ruf-DH
Estrada
Flores-1B
Posey
Crawford
Bryant(or his replacement)-LF
3B
Yaz
Duggar

I hate that lineup vs LHP. Hate it! Just don't see many options.

What we NEED is a right handed bat to play lf, or keep Bryant.

For that reason alone I'd like to retain Slater.

If we kept Slater...

Slater-RF
Estrada
Ruf-DH
Posey
Crawford
Bryant(or his replacement)
Ramos
3B
Duggar

[sharksrog]

I think you lead us to a great point here, Boly. The Giants need a center fielder. Possibly in the short run that could be Ramos, although I see Heliot more as a right fielder. If they keep Slater, I think Austin might be OK there against southpaws. A platoon of Slater and Duggar probably wouldn't be a disaster, but Slater isn't ideal in center field, and Duggar's expected batting average in 2021 was only .229. Chris Taylor isn't an idea center fielder, but his ability to outplay Kris Bryant there gives him an advantage between which of the two to sign/re-sign.

If the Giants re-sign Bryant, he will play against right-handers as well as southpaws. Belt would likely play first base against a lot of southpaws, and Flores would almost certainly be in the lineup somewhere against lefties.

Longoria is under contract and will very likely be at third most of the time -- barring a trade or injury. He will almost certainly be the 3B you mention.

I like the saying "to assume can make an ass out of u and me." I don't know about you, Boly, but it doesn't take much to make one out of me! I'm just here to entertain Barbara, and and as she will tell you, I'm really funny except when I try to be.

[sharksrog]

I have mentioned that I see Luis Matos as the center fielder of the future. He needs to walk more (only 45 walks vs. 702 at bats), but he has a career .332 average, and he's reached base 25 more times via error. The last will decrease of course when he reaches the better fielding in the majors, but his speed should allow him to reach base on errors more often than most.

Luis hasn't played above Low A ball, so he's got a long way to go. But he's also only 19, so he's got time to do so. He hit .313/.853 in Low A ball this past season at the age of 19. Three years prior, Heliot Ramos hit .245/.709 in Low A ball despite being older by three months. That points to why I've had Matos rated above Ramos for a year, and he's now rated above Heliot by most. I've seen each of them play only one game, although I've seen Ramos play a few times on TV.

For our fans in the Bay Area, I suspect the San Jose Giants are still on TV there on occasion. I know they were when I still lived there. Guys like Randy should be able to watch them on TV, and of course watching A ball live is also a lot of fun. The Giants have finally got a lot of good players in the minors, and most of them are still in the low minors. I would be delighted if Matos makes the Giants by 2023 and happy if he makes it in 2024, when he would still be only 22. I'll be disappointed if Marco Luciano's not up by sometime in 2023.

Marco and Matos aren't quite as formidable as Mays and McCovey, but they could become the Giants' new M&M boys. I think Matos with his combination of pure hitting, speed and a touch of power would be plain, while Marco's plate control and power should make him peanuts. Marco is the Giants' best position prospect since at least Buster, and he might even be the best since one of the Willies. He likely has more power potential than any Giants prospect since Dave Kingman.

[klaiggeb]

According to Farhan's recent conversations, he wants to see more at bats for both Duggar and Estrada...a point I highly favor.

I wouldn't mind a platoon of Slater and Duggar, though from what I've seen of Duggar, he can handle a lot of LH pitching.

[sharksrog]

Perhaps you noticed that this season when Steven finished close to 40% of his at bats on the first three pitches, he hit much better -- particularly power-wise -- than he had earlier in his career when only about 30% of his at bats were completed on the first three pitches. You had indicated he shouldn't try to be more aggressive, since he needed to get on base more. You were right, of course, that Steven DID need to reach base more, but my belief was that if he became more selectively aggressive, he would become a more feared hitter, which would result in pitchers pitching him more carefully, which would result in more walks.

With his added aggressiveness this past season, Steve doubled his previous career high in homers, hit more triples than he had in his total previous career, and equaled his career walk total. In addition, despite a late slump, his average went up significantly.

It is likely that the Giants' coaching staff saw much the same thing I saw and helped Steven change his approach. Remember, according to Hunter Pence, they are very good at helping hitters develop a game plan.

That improvement noted, there are still three concerns I have with Steven:

. His expected batting average was 28 points lower than his actual .257. You may remember as a rookie that he hit .255 but with an expected average that was 49 points lower. As expected his average declined the next two seasons (to .234 and then .176). Unless he makes further improvements, he probably isn't quite as good a hitter as it appeared last season.

. After hitting .287 in the first half, Steven slumped all the way to .208 in the second. That is yet another concern, especially since he still strikes out too often.

. As for hitting lefty pitching, Steven's career OPS is 97 points lower against southpaws than right-handers, and last season the difference grew to 120 points. I see Steven as still being a concern against right-handed pithing, and against southpaws, those concerns are multiplied. Steven may be able to handle lefty pitching, but he has yet to demonstrate it.


Steve appears to be a better fielder than he has sometimes been given credit for here, and he's a fine base runner. The hitting improvements he made this past season give us hope, but the concerns certainly aren't fully abated.

[sharksrog]

Which rookies are you counting on next season, Boly? How about the following season? Those things factor in moves the Giants might make this winter. Are you expecting any positions to be filled by rookies or free agents? Do you see Ramos or Bart in the mix? They've been among the Giants' very top prospects since 2018.

You know now that Longoria is under contract for 2022, right? The Giants do have an option on him for 2023. How he performs this year will likely be the biggest factor in whether they exercise it. At this point I would bet no, but a year ago I would have bet against both Brandon's too, and now Crawford at a minimum is under contract for 2022 and 2023.

[sharksrog]

It isn't ideal, but if the Giants don't have Slater, they could still come up with a decent lineup against southpaws. You don't take Belt out of the lineup against southpaws (assuming the Giants re-sign him), and they've also got Solano for an extra right-handed batter.

Belt 1B -- Fine leadoff man against southpaws, whom he doesn't hit as well but put up a .373 OBP against last season. His base running is still close to average, so he won't clog the bases.

Longoria 3B -- With his .461 OBP against southpaws, he could lead off, but why not get his homer every 11 at bats behind Belt?

Ruf LF -- Arguably the Giants' best hitter against southpaws, so why not bat him third?

Posey C -- Buster completes a strong first four hitters against southpaws.

Flores DH -- A fifth strong hitter against southpaws.

Crawford SS -- Brandon can hit southpaws a little too.

Solano 2B -- A seventh molre-than-decent hitter against southpaws.

Ramos RF -- Heliot should be able to at least hit southpaws a little. .794 OPS against southpaws at Sacramento.

Duggar CF -- Not much of a hitter against southpaws, but he gives the Giants a strong defensive center fielder and can serve as kind of a second leadoff man ahead of Belt.


No question it would be nice to have Slater, who hits lefties well and plays a decent outfield. But even without him, that's a very nice first seven hitters. If Ramos is successful or Duggar can hit southpaws, the lineup could be even longer against lefties.

I was shocked to see that Estrada put up only a .682 OPS against southpaws. His .922 OPS against right-handers would seem to make the Giants' placing Dickerson instead of him on the playoff roster even more questionable.

[sharksrog]

Maybe put Yastrzemski in the lineup instead of Duggar or Ramos. But even without Slater, the Giants might have a better lineup against lefties than righties. If they were to re-sign Bryant, they probably would. Bryant's OPS against southpaws last season was .910. The biggest problem against southpaws might be getting a strong enough combination of a bat and a glove in center field.