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Fear
Oct 12, 2021 22:42:47 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 12, 2021 22:42:47 GMT -5
I'm struggling with what I'm seeing tonight from giant pitchers. Fear.
You can see it in their body language, you can see how tight they are with each delivery, you can see it with how much they're missing the strike zone. They are afraid to throw strikes.
Of all of the things I expected in this series, fear was not one of them.
But that's what I see.
And I say that, because our Bullpen is a bullpen that throws strikes oh, and tonight they're all over the place.
Y'all May disagree, but that's what I see.
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Fear
Oct 12, 2021 22:53:20 GMT -5
Post by reedonly on Oct 12, 2021 22:53:20 GMT -5
You hit the nail on the head about the Dodgers and the fan base. A lot of what they are about is fear, intimidation, and entitlement. We saw that a lot when Dodgers faced Padres, Rockies, and Brewers last month and we see that with the Giants when they don’t do well. They are not going to go away and we should not go away either.
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Fear
Oct 13, 2021 9:44:56 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Oct 13, 2021 9:44:56 GMT -5
Fear is a killer in every aspect of life.
It immobilizes, paralyzes, disables and cripples, and it has no place in Major League baseball.
None.
If you get to that level, not only should you intellectually know better, but you've likely BEEN through play offs and other incredibly stressful situations on the field.
And that fear by our bullpen really concerns me.
In 2010, 2012 and 2014 we had far... far from the best team.
But that group, from Casilla to Lopez to Romo and Affeldt and beyond... none of them showed fear on the mound in high stress games.
This group does, and should we fail to advance past LA, THAT is what I will point to as one of the main reasons why.
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Fear
Nov 9, 2021 22:37:31 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 9, 2021 22:37:31 GMT -5
I have a question: Did you see fear in the Giants' bullpen in April and May when they struggled, and did that fear go away in June, July, August and September when they excelled?
I did like your comment that in the three seasons the Giants won the World Series, they had far from the best team. I think in 2012, the Giants were among the best teams. If Tim Lincecum hadn't stumbled that season, they might have BEEN the best.
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Fear
Nov 10, 2021 0:34:12 GMT -5
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reedonly likes this
Post by Islandboagie on Nov 10, 2021 0:34:12 GMT -5
I have a question: Did you see fear in the Giants' bullpen in April and May when they struggled, and did that fear go away in June, July, August and September when they excelled? I did like your comment that in the three seasons the Giants won the World Series, they had far from the best team. I think in 2012, the Giants were among the best teams. If Tim Lincecum hadn't stumbled that season, they might have BEEN the best. I know you discredit their Championships, but to say they were FAR from the best team is inaccurate. I always think the best team is the one that wins it all, but even the people who think the post-season is luck, or a crap shoot, must at least admit the teams that make it to the post-season are there for a reason. Major League Baseball has deemed those teams close enough in skill level to play for a chance to be declared the Champion. Getting through the season long grind and be successful, then winning in the post-season season speaks to the team's physical capacity, durability and ability to bounce back from injury. That is the goal afterall, to stay healthy and win. Maybe being the "best" is a relative term. Should we be so one dimensional in our thinking that what shows up in a stat book is the clear and definitive answer to who the best team is? Perhaps we should open our minds a little more and consider all the factors before making an uneducated statement.
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Fear
Nov 10, 2021 9:56:16 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 10, 2021 9:56:16 GMT -5
Well said , boagie!
This is one of those points about which you & I have been stressing for years
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Fear
Nov 10, 2021 10:25:25 GMT -5
Post by reedonly on Nov 10, 2021 10:25:25 GMT -5
I heard that Kapler said some of them were exhausted at the end. They went to some of those relievers a little too often and too many bullpen games. IL stints for Wood, Mcgee, and Watson didn't help. The Wood Covid fiasco was the worst because it was them most preventable. The Dodgers were also exhausted, and you get the sense now that the Giants wouldn't have gotten past Atlanta. Earlier in the season, many of us talked about how Kapler would go to certain relievers too much and our fears came true.
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Fear
Nov 10, 2021 14:43:56 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 10, 2021 14:43:56 GMT -5
I heard that Kapler said some of them were exhausted at the end. They went to some of those relievers a little too often and too many bullpen games. IL stints for Wood, Mcgee, and Watson didn't help. The Wood Covid fiasco was the worst because it was them most preventable. The Dodgers were also exhausted, and you get the sense now that the Giants wouldn't have gotten past Atlanta. Earlier in the season, many of us talked about how Kapler would go to certain relievers too much and our fears came true. When Atlanta acquired Joc, Duval and Soler at the deadline... and then watching how they played against us, I saw then just how formidable they were going to be.
I figured they'd beat anyone who played them in the playoffs or the WS.
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Fear
Nov 10, 2021 21:45:44 GMT -5
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Post by reedonly on Nov 10, 2021 21:45:44 GMT -5
Before the playoffs, Braves players were asked which of the two teams (Giants or Dodgers) that they would rather face and they said Dodgers. They felt their hitters matched up better against Dodger pitching. I’d say a seven game tossup but if Giants played Atlanta, they probably would have used Cueto and hopefully Estrada over Dickerson. I think we would have lost with the gassed bullpen.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 10:09:05 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 11, 2021 10:09:05 GMT -5
Not a bad argument, Reed.
Please remember that going through the final month, I was saying that the bullpen was being overused, and eventually will be our undoing. Which it was it seems.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 10:29:01 GMT -5
Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 10:29:01 GMT -5
Also, before August, the Braves did not use defensive shifts much. August and September, they used it a lot and got hot.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 11, 2021 11:04:43 GMT -5
I was one of those who most vehemently opposed Kapler's hiring to replace Bochy.
I also admitted I was wrong.
During the season I learned to really love the way he handled the club, especially with his lineups and use of pinch hitters.
He was vastly improved in his handling of the pitching staff from his Philley days.
But beginning in August I began to point out how he was over using/abusing the use of the bullpen.
and as Reed pointed out, Kapler admitted they were gassed.
In terms of the handling of pitching, the two worst Giant managers I've EVER seen, were Frank Robinson and Felipe Alou.
They just didn't get how 'arms' worked.
At times they reminded me of a guy playing a video game where arms NEVER get tired, the way they got them up and down and up and down and maybe bringing them in.
Bochy understood arms and so did Roger Craig.
I thought Kapler did until we got to August.
Now maybe circumstances were the reason, I don't know, but I feel strongly that the use of "openers" contributes to tired arms in the bullpen.
And it is also my opinion...MY OPINION, that the vast majority (NOT all, but the vast majority), of those fans promoting "openers" have never pitched beyond Little League and certainly do NOT understand arms, how they get tired and what causes them to tire early.
Whatever the case baseball NEEDS starters to go more than 5 innings on a regular basis I don't care WHAT the metrics say.
Either that or expand rosters by 2 more players so it won't make a difference.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 11:26:44 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 11, 2021 11:26:44 GMT -5
I think everyone was aware the bullpen was overused, Boly. But was that really our undoing? I'm sure it factored in, but the 5th game ended 2-1. Our hitters also share some of the blame. As does Kapler for not having our pitching staff prepared for a 5 game series. I also remember when Kapler used Doval in the first game and I commented on the fact that Doval was the only pitcher the Dodgers hadn't seen, Kapler tipped his hand in a non-save situation. Kapler also had the opportunity to use McGee in the last game of the season to get him some work before the post-season and he opted not to. I believe Kapler was too focused on winning the division over his old team, and then pulling all the stops in every game of the NLDS to beat his old team. He was too focused on the Dodgers and not focused enough on the Giants.
Don't get me wrong, I thought Kapler did a nice job this season, but for those who criticize Bochy, I can assure you Bochy would not have tipped his hand so early with Doval, and he would have used McGee in the final few games of the season to get him ready for the post-season. Bochy was a big picture guy, he's always thinking 5 steps ahead. Bochy is playing chess while Kapler is playing checkers. Kapler is good at checkers though.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 12:03:52 GMT -5
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Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 12:03:52 GMT -5
Roberts was also playing checkers with someone whispering the moves into his ear
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 14:16:27 GMT -5
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Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 14:16:27 GMT -5
Actually, bullpen overuse factored into game 4 more. I heard on ESPN that the Giants felt that they were a bit too satisfied to come to LA and get a split and then count on Logan Webb for an automatic win. Everyone let that one get out of hand.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 14:48:11 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 11, 2021 14:48:11 GMT -5
Given that Gabe Kapler has done an even better job IMO at putting players in positions to succeed than than Bruce Bochy did, I think it's absurd to say that Bruce was playing chess while Gabe was playing checkers. When it comes specifically to the bullpen, let me give you three counters to your argument, Matt.
First, it was much easier for Bruce to handle his bullpen, since he had a great one. Pretty tough to improve on the combination of Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez. Their Giants' ERA's were 3.21, 2.58. 2.42, 3.38 and 2.76. Each was with the Giants for at least seven seasons.
Second, remember how upset our board was when in 2012, Bruce went to closer by committee, although he ultimately settled on Sergio Romo?
Third, Kapler went with is hottest reliever, Doval, as his closer, whereas in 2016, Bruce failed to do the same with Will Smith, who IIRC didn't allow a single run after August 19th. I think the odds are quite strong that had Bruce brought Will in to open the ninth inning of game four, the Giants would have gone on to a game five with the Cubs that would have pitted Cueto against Lester in one of the best matchups of the entire season.
Does Kapler handle his relievers even better than Bruce did? That's one I don't think we can answer yet. Because of the time frames involved, I think Bruce wins that one by default. But I think saying that Bruce played chess with his relievers while Gabe plays checkers is absurd.
Plus, maybe one of them played bridge.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 15:28:43 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 11, 2021 15:28:43 GMT -5
Putting your young pitcher who had taken over the closer role in game 1 when the score is 4-0 is essentially playing checkers. After game 1 they had a book on him, during game 3 they started making solid contact against him, then in game 5 they scored on him. If you take that first appearance in game one away, the Dodgers don't see him until the 3rd game, which would probably allow him to pitch more effectively in game 5. That one move in game 1 would appear meaningless to the average fan, but to those playing chess it gives the opposing team a big advantage.
I believe Doval will be a good pitcher, he will probably have to learn another pitch and he will have to adjust once the NL adjusts to him, but he's not there yet.
What Kapler did was give the Dodgers a book on Doval early, and they adjusted. If you go back to posts leading into that series I said Doval was one of the keys, I believe I called him the secret weapon. He absolutely should have been used as the secret weapon, but Kapler wasn't thinking of the 5th game, he was thinking of making sure they won game 1.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 15:41:50 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 11, 2021 15:41:50 GMT -5
I don't know enough about Dave Roberts to know if he plays figurative checkers to chess by either Bruce Bochy or Gabe Kapler. To be honest, handling a pitching staff is likely more analogous to checkers than to chess.
Apparently the decision to use an opener in game 5 came down from above Dave, but that move was likely as strong as any either Bruce or Gabe made. I emailed Matt and told him that Gabe shouldn't overreact to the move, but IMO Gabe did just that. I think Gabe did a masterful job this season, but with regard to this one tactic, I think Gabe made a mistake.
That the game came down to an 0-for-17 Wilmer Flores against Max Scherzer when that matchup could have been avoided indicates that Gabe did indeed make a mistake. I would love to be able to sit down with Gabe and ask him about the situation. I would ask Gabe why he reacted the way he did. I suspect he would have some good reasons. But I have a feeling that looking back on how the game played out, he might agree with me.
Does anyone here NOT believe that if a manager can avoid having a game come down to the worst possible matchup for his team, he wouldn't take action to avoid it? There was no way, of course, for Gabe to know that the game would indeed come down to that matchup, but a good manager plays the odds. And I personally think that Gabe has turned out to be a very good manager.
Just think how well he might handle a bullpen that included Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez!
Flipping back to Bruce, I thought he was a good manager even before the Giants had success under him. Many here were initially critical of him -- and then of course jumped on the bandwagon once he began to have success. That said, although he was a good manager, he likely wasn't a great one. He didn't quite reach .500 over the course of his career, despite having some pretty good teams.
I suspect Bruce was better than he was initially given credit for here, but not quite as good as he is believed to be here now.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 17:10:42 GMT -5
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Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 17:10:42 GMT -5
Again, it didn’t come down to Flores. Crawford, Bryant, and Wade Jr hit ahead of him and did not really produce. You give the Dodgers too much credit here. And seeing how effective Scherzer was in NLCS, it didn’t really help. Remember, the goal for Dodgers is championship or bust so while they beat the Giants, they fell six wins short of their stated goal. They cannot even print up shirts saying “NL West champs” like they did the past few years.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 17:20:09 GMT -5
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Post by reedonly on Nov 11, 2021 17:20:09 GMT -5
Putting your young pitcher who had taken over the closer role in game 1 when the score is 4-0 is essentially playing checkers. After game 1 they had a book on him, during game 3 they started making solid contact against him, then in game 5 they scored on him. If you take that first appearance in game one away, the Dodgers don't see him until the 3rd game, which would probably allow him to pitch more effectively in game 5. That one move in game 1 would appear meaningless to the average fan, but to those playing chess it gives the opposing team a big advantage. I believe Doval will be a good pitcher, he will probably have to learn another pitch and he will have to adjust once the NL adjusts to him, but he's not there yet. What Kapler did was give the Dodgers a book on Doval early, and they adjusted. If you go back to posts leading into that series I said Doval was one of the keys, I believe I called him the secret weapon. He absolutely should have been used as the secret weapon, but Kapler wasn't thinking of the 5th game, he was thinking of making sure they won game 1. . Doval is working on another pitch.
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Fear
Nov 11, 2021 23:37:11 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 11, 2021 23:37:11 GMT -5
That's good to hear, Reed. Do you know what pitch he's working on adding?
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 10:06:17 GMT -5
Post by reedonly on Nov 12, 2021 10:06:17 GMT -5
Two seam fastball according to Krukow. They know Doval is work in progress and could be devastating with one or two more weapons.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 10:20:34 GMT -5
Post by reedonly on Nov 12, 2021 10:20:34 GMT -5
I think some are too quick to anoint the Dodgers brain trust as geniuses because the game ended with Scherzer vs Flores. To be honest, a lot of Dodger fans were very unhappy with Friedman and company because they failed expectations the next week.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 11:17:16 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 12, 2021 11:17:16 GMT -5
I was okay with Flores being up in that situation, he'd been pretty clutch all season, and 0-17..he was definitely due. It's funny to me how Rog claims that to be good strategy and planning after the ump clearly blew the call on the no swing, yet he thinks the Giants 3 Championships are dumb luck.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 14:27:38 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 14:27:38 GMT -5
You are absolutely right about Crawford, Bryant and Wade, Reed. But in the final analysis, when push came to shove, when one out would end the game, it was the 0-for-17 Flores against Scherzer. The game ended on a bad call, but even if he had one strike remaining as he should have, Flores was highly unlikely to keep the inning alive, let alone drive in the tying or tying and winning runs. As for Matt's comment that Flores was due, that's just stupid. Flores had also been "due" at least his previous dozen at bats against Scherzer, and had failed to get a single hit.
Wouldn't it have been nice to have Tommy La Stella available to pinch hit for Flores, as would have been the case had Kapler resisted the bait to start Tommy when the Dodgers went with the opener? The Dodgers could have countered with a lefty, but I think it's highly unlikely they would have replaced Scherzer. One thing I will say is that it's conceivable Gabe was assuming if it came down to that situation it would be Jansen in the game, not Scherzer, and then I think the Dodgers MIGHT have inserted a lefty. Maybe that's why Kapler didn't resist the urge to start La Stella. I'm sure he anticipated that Scherzer MIGHT be in the game, but I don't think he could have known for sure.
That said, it was game 5, and it was likely that if the game were close in the ninth inning, Scherzer would have been the guy, as turned out to be the case.
Although my initial email to Matt said that Kapler shouldn't start any lefty hitters except Crawford (whom I would have batted third to ensure he hit against the righty, in case the Dodgers used only one opener, not two), I can't make an argument against starting Yastrzemski. When I emailed Matt, I didn't realize how much Slater had struggled against righties. I might have batted Slater eighth, but I can't really make a strong argument against going with Mike. La Stella still would have been available to hit for Flores.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 15:12:00 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 15:12:00 GMT -5
First of all, Matt, I want to applaud you for noting that the Giants might have given up their "secret weapon" when they inserted Camilo Doval into game 1 with a four-run lead, even though it was the ninth inning. I'm going to make some counter arguments, but I applaud you for thinking of something that possibly could have been important.
That said, the Dodgers had seen Camilo before, on September 5th. Plus, it's not like Camilo is a one-pitch pitcher. He has a 99 mph fastball that he threw basically three out of four times and a highly effective slider that he threw four out of seven times. The slider is good enough that Buster called it something like five straight times, and the last one got hit. Buster is excellent at pitch calling, but it's possible in this case Doval would have benefited more if one or more of those five straight pitches had been a fastball. 99 mph is pretty hard to hit, especially when it's mixed up a bit.
The team that saw Doval the most during the season was the Padres, not exactly a weak-hitting team. Camilo faced them no fewer than 10 times, and the only time they scored against him was the first time they faced him. Camilo faced them no fewer than seven times the final month of the season, including three out of four days in early September, and then back-to-back days first on September 21 and 22 and then again on October 1 and 2. I applaud you for thinking of the "surprise" factor, but I think you may have overrated it given Camilo's history.
You were thinking creatively, and that's a good thing.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 16:12:36 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 16:12:36 GMT -5
I suspect there were two reasons Kapler used Doval in game 1 despite having a four-run lead:
First, teams are much more aggressive with their top relievers in the postseason, and let's not forget that back in game 4 in 2016, the Giants gave up four runs in the ninth inning and lost a game they seemingly had won.
Secondly, and likely even more importantly, Doval was well-rested, not having pitched for six days, and the Giants probably didn't want him to get rusty.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 16:21:08 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 16:21:08 GMT -5
Hard to say if the Giants' bullpen was overused the final two months or not. I tend to agree with you that they were, but their ERA's didn't show it. Their 2.46 and 2.42 ERA's were better than any month except June. They used the bullpen particularly heavily in the final month, but they also had more pitchers then.
And they did have four days off at the end of the season. Gabe kind of needed to go all out, since the Giants didn't clinch the division, a bye and home field advantage in the NLDS and NLCS until the season's final day.
I think one could argue this one either way. I'm mostly with you guys, but I don't think it was cut and dried.
Going back to my previous post, I think Gabe was likely looking for a good opportunity to use Doval given that his closer hadn't pitched in six days.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 16:32:32 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 16:32:32 GMT -5
It may be that the combination of working hard from September 10th through October 2nd coupled with not pitching from the 2nd through the 8th combined to diminish Doval. Although he wasn't bad, he wasn't the same pitcher he had been in the regular season. He struck out only about 40% as many batters in the postseason, and he yielded nearly twice as many fly balls. He seemed to be throwing plenty hard, which would seem to indicate he wasn't tired, but I suspect his ball wasn't moving as much (particularly downward), and his location wasn't as good.
If your pitches aren't moving downward as much (as would be indicated by his fly balls being doubled), and your location isn't as sharp, that might indicate that the six-day layoff hurt him more than anything. But I just have a hunch that it might have been the combination of working hard once September days hit double digits, then having so long off before the start of the playoffs. One additional indication was that Camilo's infield fly balls nearly tripled in the postseason. I don't think he pitches were dropping as much.
If Camilo HAD been getting tired as season's end, one would have expected him to give up runs, which he didn't, and to see his strikeouts fall. Instead, he struck out 10 batters in his final five innings, increasing his strikeout rate by nearly 50%. It was in the playoffs that he seemed to be off. The much lower strikeouts and much higher fly balls in the postseason would seem to indicate a loss of drop more than anything. Which would seemingly be caused more by being rusty and possibly too strong than being tired and too weak.
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Fear
Nov 12, 2021 16:37:48 GMT -5
Post by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2021 16:37:48 GMT -5
If Camilo adds another pitch, he could be on the verge of having a starter's arsenal. Kevin Gausman gets by with mostly two, and an added pitch would give Camilo three.
IMO the best pitch for him to add would be a change up or split, which should give him added downward movement and another off-speed pitch. But adding the two-seamer would also give him a pitch that moves down and in, whereas his present two pitches both move away.
If Camilo could add BOTH an effective two-seamer and a change up or split, he would almost certainly have the arsenal to start.
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