Winter Meetings Preview

[rxmeister]

theathletic.com/1441875/2019/12/08/winter-meetings-preview-the-giants-are-truly-free-to-remake-themselves-this-offseason/

[klaiggeb]

Mark: Can you do a cut and paste and post the entire article?

That would help because all that it will let me read, without subscribing to the Athletic, is the first few lines.

Thanks!

[rxmeister]

The baseball offseason boils down to an exercise in talent acquisition. Giants president Farhan Zaidi began flexing those muscles the moment the final glasses clinked at Bruce Bochy’s farewell party in late September.

Two months later, one sizable storehouse of talent is all assembled now. Zaidi poached general manager Scott Harris from the Cubs. He hired his first choice to succeed Bochy as manager, fully aware that Gabe Kapler would be a hard sell both inside and outside the organization. He hired away pitching director Brian Bannister from the Red Sox and hitting coach Donnie Ecker from the Reds. Kai Correa, the Indians’ well-regarded defensive coordinator, is expected to become Kapler’s first base coach. The rest of the big league coaching staff, including the all-important bench coach, should be announced before the end of the week. Expect more youth, energy and upside.

The two-month hiring process involved rounds of interviews with dozens of candidates, countless dinners and a stress-inducing, although necessary, amount of public relations. But it’s all done now. Zaidi has assembled the driven and talented staff that will direct, enhance and execute his design for bringing the Giants back into prominence in the NL West.

If they succeed, it will reflect on him. If they fail, it also will reflect on him.

It’s always dangerous when a tech startup burns through its capital a little too quickly, and for a large faction of the Giants fan base, with the Kapler hire especially, Zaidi already has eaten up a fair share of the runway when it comes to trust and goodwill.

This front office really should have two more consequence-free seasons before its rebuilding effort can be fairly judged on its merits. But there’s no guarantee the paying customers will grant it.

Especially when the Giants haven’t begun to acquire talent in the form of, you know, the guys who swing the bat and toe the rubber.

For all the talent acquisition in the front office and coaching ranks, when it comes to the major-league roster, the Giants haven’t made offseason transactions as much as subtractions: All-Star closer Will Smith signed with the Braves, inspirational backup catcher Stephen Vogt signed with the Diamondbacks and Willie Mac Award winner Kevin Pillar was non-tendered.

And now that the prevailing winds on the starting pitcher market are carrying Madison Bumgarner into $100 million territory, it might not be long before the franchise’s most accomplished postseason pitcher in history is sighting new shores as well.

If you thought the voices of dissent over Pillar were loud …

The good news about the Pillar angst is that he endeared himself to Giants fans and teammates in just one season. This is a fan base that falls in love quickly with players.

There’s a good chance they will fall in love with someone else next season. Someone new. Preferably someone who won’t be another short-term renter.

The entire thrust of Zaidi’s operation thus far has been about making minimal commitments to free agents and creating financial flexibility, which is understandable given the contracts he inherited. But at what point can fans expect the Giants to turn a corner?

When will they begin adding to the roster in a significant way? Or is it possible the next move will be another subtraction?

Full disclosure: I really have no idea. My bosses were kind enough to let me take advantage of a wonderful opportunity to spend October and November in Japan, where between trips to Zen gardens and breathtaking bowls of ramen, I continued to report offseason developments, hopped on conference calls and texted with sources. But eight weeks with your days and nights flipped from California time make it pretty much impossible to keep your finger on the pulse. Texts will never replace the valuable background you get from informal, off-the-record conversations with sources. (But I did see a Yomiuri-Hanshin Climax Series game and covered Mexico’s historic triumph over Team USA in the Premier 12 tournament at Tokyo Dome, so there’s that.)

So your jet-lagged correspondent couldn’t tell you if every statement Zaidi has made about wanting to re-sign Bumgarner amounts to anything more than lip service.

Couldn’t tell you whether the Giants, given the price of starting pitching, will listen on offers for Jeff Samardzija and/or Johnny Cueto or sense an opportunity to actively push trading one or both of them.

Couldn’t tell you if they will seek a right-handed infielder who will spell Brandon Crawford or who will turn him into a bench player following back-to-back woeful offensive seasons.

Couldn’t tell you if they view Brandon Belt as a player whose talent is yet to be unlocked and will provide an excellent project for their new coaching minds, or if they’ll try to unload as much of his contract as possible and free up first base for someone with more power and less service time.

Couldn’t tell you if they view Brandon Belt as a player whose talent is yet to be unlocked and will provide an excellent project for their new coaching minds, or if they’ll try to unload as much of his contract as possible and free up first base for someone with more power and less service time.

Couldn’t tell you if the Giants will seek a bona fide replacement for Vogt, or if they believe Joey Bart’s arrival in the big leagues as a tandem to Buster Posey is so imminent that a backup catcher on a guaranteed contract isn’t warranted.

Couldn’t tell you if there’s a non-zero chance that all the unspent Bryce Harper money could be waved in the direction of Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole.

Couldn’t tell you whether to expect another relatively light offseason, leading to another open tryout in the spring and perhaps another Opening Day featuring starting players who weren’t in the organization a week earlier. Or whether this will be the winter when Zaidi moves past the waiver arbitrage and begins to fashion some truly dazzling, surprising and complicated trades.

For now, with the Winter Meetings set to begin Monday in San Diego (I welcome the relatively short flight, thanks), all I can tell you is that the Giants have more brainpower, more financial flexibility and fewer PR constraints — no longer forced to dress their roster for the contender’s masquerade ball as a nod to Bochy’s final season — than they did at this time a year ago.

And the combination of those three things leads me to believe the Giants could explore some remarkable and inspired transactions this winter as they seek to load up their organization with more young talent.
Yeah, it’s sort of unsavory that fans and media have become conditioned to cheer front offices when they make a cost-cutting move like non-tendering Pillar or when they trim future payroll obligations by getting the Braves to take Mark Melancon’s contract. Especially when the price of beer at the ballpark remains too damn high.

But when it comes to transactional hand-to-hand combat, it’s a lot easier for a clever fighter like Zaidi to operate when he sheds the heavy armor. The less money the Giants have on the books, the more open the front office can be to taking on another club’s toxic contract while attached to controllable young talent.

The Cubs have made it known they are open for business and could move players like Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant. Could the Harris connection yield instant benefits? Could there be a connection that works for the Cubs and Giants?

Could the Red Sox, who are known to be cutting payroll, find a match with Zaidi?

Don’t forget that Zaidi began his baseball career learning the art of the deal from Billy Beane, who often shocked the industry with a trade that appeared incongruent on the surface.

The example that sticks out to me is the November 2008 trade that sent Matt Holliday to the A’s from the Colorado Rockies. The A’s weren’t expected to contend — they won 75 games in 2009— and Holliday was entering his final year before free agency. The trade didn’t add up when it was announced. But Beane saw an opportunity when the Rockies and Cardinals couldn’t agree to a deal. He bought Holliday with the hunch he could get more for him at the trade deadline, and indeed, he eventually flipped the player to St. Louis in late July.

The gambit backfired. It became one of the least successful trades of Beane’s career. He gave up Carlos González and Huston Street and was left with three players — Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson and Brett Wallace — who combined for -0.2 WAR in their careers.

But to paraphrase Val Kilmer in “Real Genius,” this was a launch problem, not a design problem. If we have learned anything from watching Beane for a couple of decades in Oakland and Zaidi for a couple of seasons in Los Angeles and now San Francisco, it’s that they recognize opportunity where others do not. And they make designs around those visions.

I couldn’t tell you what, if anything, the Giants will do at the San Diego pseudo-event this week. But I have a hunch this is the winter when the Zaidi-led Giants are not going to stop at the obvious and incremental moves that will make the organization better bit by bit. This could be the offseason when they start to think and act in truly unconventional terms.

[klaiggeb]

thanks, Mark!