Chapman and Smith

[klaiggeb]

Read an article on the Giant website today that addressed how Chapman's resigning with the Yankees would effect Smith.

A comment by Jeff Pass implied... no, downright said, that Smith was now the top relief arm available, which, after seeing the names on the list, makes sense.

But the main article, written by Marcus White, also implied that Smith was just a tick below Chapman as a closer, and I take great exception to that.

www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/what-aroldis-chapman-contract-extension-means-giants-will-smith

From where I sit, that is just one more in a long list of moronic writers looking no further than last year's numbers; a Sabermetric writer, if you will.

I can't believe anyone in their right mind would put Will Smith in the same class, or even a class one tick lower, with Aroldis Chapman.

Sorry, but as the old saying from the south goes, "that dog just won't hunt."

[Islandboagie]

I dont think he implied Smith was the same or a tick below Chapman, that wasn't even discussed or hinted at. He just said Chapman resigning leaves Smith as the top reliever on the market, and that's probably true.

Despite Smith's July, he was still very good last season, because he was excellent the rest of the time. I'm not sure he has the mindset to be a closer for a competitive team in the long run, but his numbers last season were at elite levels and very comparable to Chapman.

Where Smith is a disappointment for me is his struggles when we were competitive. Chapman showed the same weakness when he allowed the walk off to the Astros and his reaction was to smile as he let his team down. At least Smith doesn't smile when he blows the game.

[rxmeister]

I wouldn’t read too much into Chapman’s smile, people smile sometimes when they’re not happy. I think it was more shock than anything else. Giants extended the QO to Smith and I would think that making close to 18 million would be very appealing to him. Considering what Kimbrel did on the open market last year I’d be surprised if Will doesn’t accept it. Doesn’t matter if he’s the best reliever on the market right now, the big money just isn’t out there anymore for non elite players.

[Islandboagie]

He shouldn't be shocked that a homerun was hit on a weak slider left up in the zone. It wasn't dumb luck that Altuve sent his slider over the wall, Chapman got taken deep because he wasn't careful enough to a good hitter. Chapman blew it, and the smile just indicates that Chapman felt he was untouchable and could get anything past anyone. Chapman was pitching with his ego, not his head. Just my opinion.

Anyways, me bringing it up wasn't meant for me to rip on Chapman, it was to show Boly that even Chapman has flaws.

[klaiggeb]

Nov 5, 2019 1:54:26 GMT -5 Islandboagie said:

I dont think he implied Smith was the same or a tick below Chapman, that wasn't even discussed or hinted at. He just said Chapman resigning leaves Smith as the top reliever on the market, and that's probably true.

Despite Smith's July, he was still very good last season, because he was excellent the rest of the time. I'm not sure he has the mindset to be a closer for a competitive team in the long run, but his numbers last season were at elite levels and very comparable to Chapman.

Where Smith is a disappointment for me is his struggles when we were competitive. Chapman showed the same weakness when he allowed the walk off to the Astros and his reaction was to smile as he let his team down. At least Smith doesn't smile when he blows the game.

With all due respect, I disagree with you, boagie. Here's what was written:

NBC Sports Bay Area's Alex Pavlovic wrote last week that the Giants are considering issuing Smith a $17.8 million qualifying offer. That would take Smith just under Chapman's reported 2022 salary

If he'w going to be offered/making "just under" what Chapman's going to make, to me, that implies he's just a tick under Chapman in closer value.

I don't see any other way to read that.,

[Islandboagie]

How much someone makes is one thing, judging how good they are is different. For someone to say Smith's qualifying offer would put him a tick under Chapman's pay is a fact, but in no way states that Smith is a tick below Chapman talent wise. Sorry, Boly, that's just how I see that statement. I think you might be reading too much into that.

[rxmeister]

But the Smith QO is a one year offer. Chapman has a multi year deal and the Yankees even added an extra year to that after the season. That’s the difference between elite and non elite, that a team is willing to guarantee you that kind of money over several years instead of just one.

[klaiggeb]

Okay. I'll acquiesce to both of you, Mark and boagie. You make good points.

It appears I read far too much into the statement.

I'll also admit that I'm likely prejudiced against Smith because of his implosion in the second half.

Not everyone will agree that it was an implosion, but the numbers between the 2 halves are, to me, so radically different that they bear noting.

I mean, 1.98, which, I believe was way over his head, and 3.72, which was way beyond were he could reasonably be expected to be.

I was disappointed that the bottom fell out so drastically.

Then again, I never, EVER thought he was as good as those 1st half numbers were.

[Islandboagie]

He probably isn't as good as his first half numbers, and not just his sabermetric numbers, he didn't blow a save during the whole first half, which is remarkable for even the most elite closers.

[rxmeister]

It’s an interesting dilemma for Will, who will never get a shot at 17.8 million again, but who also could take less for the security of a multi year deal. It all depends on his confidence. If he’s sure of himself he’ll take the QO, knowing that multi year deal will be out there again next year. However if he has a bad year he might find himself among a hundred different relievers looking for a 3-5 million per year contract. Perhaps the earlier TJ surgery might convince him to seek the multi year deal.

[Islandboagie]

17.8 mil is a lot for a reliever for one season. I think he'll take his chances on having a good season again and try to get a multiyear deal next season.

[klaiggeb]

Depends upon how he views the team, IMHO.

Personally, I think he'll try to move to a team that has a shot to win.

The Giants don't.

So, towards that end, since we're talking double figured millions, money won't be as large a factor as a chance to win will be.

At least that's the way I'd do it.

I mean, seriously; in what's left of his life, he'll never, ever be able to spend 17+ millions, not to mention the millions he's made to this point.

Winning should be his priority.

[Islandboagie]

I could spend $17 mil no problem.

But it's not just about how much money he can spend on new cars, boats or houses. I would imagine many players consider the lasting effect on his family. That money can help kids, grandkids and great grandkids go to good colleges and have financial stability. At least that's how financially responsible athletes would look at money.

[klaiggeb]

Then they are out of their freaking minds if that's how they look at it.

What has Smith made to this point in his career; 10 Million +

No one, and I mean no sane one could spend that much in his lifetime on stuff he needs or even wants.

Unless the idiot HAS to buy multiple million dollar homes and multiple million dollar cars.



By my rough estimate, with his next contract he will have cleared OVER 27 million dollars.

No one NEEDS that kind of money.

[Islandboagie]

As much as winning is important to ballplayers, providing for their family is usually number one. Yes nobody NEEDS that kind of money, but if they have the chance for more financial security for their family most likely they're going to take it. Smith might stay with the Giants, he might go to LA, or New York, or Boston...all of which are very expensive places to live and pay taxes. Not to mention, a percentage of that goes to their agent and they retire at an early age. All reasons why making as much money now is important and might figure in their decision.

[rxmeister]

I’m with Boagie on this. I think taking less money to play for a contender is fan thinking, not a player. In reality a player makes different decisions. Where does he want to live? Does he want to uproot his family? Why uproot your family where you can make more money staying right where you are? And the contender thing is really overrated in the grand scheme of things. Will knows the Giants will spend money. They’re not the Orioles. He might see a tough year or two but eventually they’ll contend again. He’s young enough to think he could be around for that. People knocked Corbin last year for turning down the Yankees and taking the highest offer with the Nationals. A 100 win team that was one starter away from a ring? To sign with a mediocre 82-80 team? What was he thinking? Look how that turned out!

[Islandboagie]

And look at Bryce Harper, he turned down more money with the Nats to sign with the Phillies because he felt the Phillies had a better chance of winning. I think when you're making THAT kind of money you can have the luxury of choosing whom you think will win. But he chose poorly.

[klaiggeb]

Then I guess I'm a totally different kind of guy.

To me, when you're talking double figure millions... the money becomes secondary. You already have more than you need and/or can spend.

I go where I can win.

[Islandboagie]

I would play for the Giants.

[rxmeister]

But Boly, my point was how do you know exactly where you’re going to win? A team that won 82 games in 2018 won the World Series in 2019. And if you’re looking for a multi year deal you can be talking about how good a team will be five years from now. If I’m a free agent looking at a multi year deal how good the team is at the present time is not a major factor. Besides, awful teams very rarely compete for major free agents. You think Anthony Rendon’s best offer will be from the Baltimore Orioles? It’s only going to be from contenders or teams that want to be contenders, so winning is not a factor. I agree that the point is slightly different with Will Smith, because the QO is for one year, and they probably won’t be contenders this year, but like we said, they’re a big market team who has spent money in the past and will again. If I’m Will Smith I take the QO and if winning and security are so important to him you have a full year to sign a multi year extension with them. Then again, he’s from Georgia and maybe the Braves are interested. He’s certainly better than Mark Melancon! Then again, paying Mark 16 million a season might preclude them from spending big money on a closer. Another brilliant move by Zaidi!

[klaiggeb]

I guess what I'm saying Mark is that I would sign with a team that look like they had a chance to win, and not a thing like the Giants who don't look like they will have a chance to win 4 years

[rxmeister]

I don’t think the Giants are years away. Two maybe. That’s when all the vets are gone and players like Bart and Ramos should be here. The Giants will have tons of money that offseason and I expect a Phillies type splurge, only with Zaidi in charge I expect far better results.

[Islandboagie]

I think winning could happen now if they revamp their starting staff (and resign Bumgarner) get a centerfielder and keep Dickerson off the DL.