Post by rog on Jun 18, 2019 11:04:02 GMT -5
The MLB NEtwork mentioned that it is possible -- although still unlikely -- that the Nationals would trade Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. Looking at Scherzer's value should help us get an idea of Madison's trade value.
If a team trades for Scherzer, they would be getting the game's top pitcher over the past few seasons, and they would be getting him for two and a half seasons. That's five times as long as it would control Bumgarner. One can imagine it would take a huge amount to trade or Scherzer, but to get a rough idea of what it should take to get Madison, divide what you would give up for Scherzer by five (my calculation, not MLB Network's). I think if we view the situation this way, it can help us avoid getting our expectations too high or Madison's trade.
To see what a team might give up or Scherzer, let's look at what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale three winters ago. Sale had three years left on his contrac, or half a season more than Scherzer has now. But since Scherzer has actually been even better than Sale, and it's the trade deadline, let's call it even. Sale commanded two top prospects (and they were indeed top 10 prospects) and two lesser ones. Let's call that the equivalent of 2 1/2 top prospects.
If he is traded, Scherzer would be controlled by his new team for five times as long as Madison. That could mean that Madison would be worth half a top prospect. It's been a long time since Madison has been as good as Max though -- if he ever was. Maybe now we're at third of a top prospect. That might mean that the Giants could expect a top 50 to top 100 prospect at best. Or perhaps two prospects is the top 150 range. Iff the Giants do better than that, I think they will have fared exceptionally well.
Remember, two years of James Paxton commanded one top 50 prospect and two lower ones. And at this stage off their careers, Paxton is likely a closer comp for Bumgarner than Scherzer is.
If a team trades for Scherzer, they would be getting the game's top pitcher over the past few seasons, and they would be getting him for two and a half seasons. That's five times as long as it would control Bumgarner. One can imagine it would take a huge amount to trade or Scherzer, but to get a rough idea of what it should take to get Madison, divide what you would give up for Scherzer by five (my calculation, not MLB Network's). I think if we view the situation this way, it can help us avoid getting our expectations too high or Madison's trade.
To see what a team might give up or Scherzer, let's look at what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale three winters ago. Sale had three years left on his contrac, or half a season more than Scherzer has now. But since Scherzer has actually been even better than Sale, and it's the trade deadline, let's call it even. Sale commanded two top prospects (and they were indeed top 10 prospects) and two lesser ones. Let's call that the equivalent of 2 1/2 top prospects.
If he is traded, Scherzer would be controlled by his new team for five times as long as Madison. That could mean that Madison would be worth half a top prospect. It's been a long time since Madison has been as good as Max though -- if he ever was. Maybe now we're at third of a top prospect. That might mean that the Giants could expect a top 50 to top 100 prospect at best. Or perhaps two prospects is the top 150 range. Iff the Giants do better than that, I think they will have fared exceptionally well.
Remember, two years of James Paxton commanded one top 50 prospect and two lower ones. And at this stage off their careers, Paxton is likely a closer comp for Bumgarner than Scherzer is.