A dream come true

[klaiggeb]

The more I thought about it, the more I realized that all of these saber metrics that are being used in baseball today, are an accountant's dream.

I mean, consider; They don't ever have to 'watch' a game to 'know' the game.

After all, it's "all in the numbers," isn't it?

Sure it is!

How fast is Steven Duggar? Well heck! Just look it up!

What is Crawford's range at short stop? Well heck! Just look it up!

What is Pillar hitting against off speed stuff? Well heck! Just look it up!

You don't have to 'be' there understand the game, just look at the analytics!


What a great future is in store for young fans.

No money needs to be spent on tickets to the game.

Don't even need a television to watch the game!

They don't even have to learn the rules or the numbers of their favorite players.

Who cares?

It's all in the numbers.

Ain't this a great game, boys and girls?

[rog]

They are the dream of those who like as many facts as they can get their hands on.

But let's look at Steven Duggar to see where the ability of the facts to help ends. It is clear that Steven needs to reach a decision earlier in the count. The facts tell us that. What they don't tell us is how he needs to change his mechanics to do so.

So, realizing my limitations, I have placed the ball here in the hands of guys like Boly. It's your turn to shine guys.

[klaiggeb]

It is clear that Steven needs to reach a decision earlier in the count. The facts tell us that. What they don't tell us is how he needs to change his mechanics to do so.



No, I disagree, That's not necessarily what the facts tell us.

What he needs is more experience. right now virtually every pitcher he sees, he's seeing for the first time.

He had no patterns of how they worked him to go by, doesn't know what their stuff is like.

His mechanics at the plate aren't bad.

Not my preference, such as the back elbow up and what not, but as he gains that experience, he'll get better fast.

he's already darned good at NOT flying open on the front side vs LHP, and he'll continue to get better.

[klaiggeb]

But Roger, you completely missed the point of my post.

With all of these analytics, stats-geeks no longer need to watch the game to 'believe' they 'know' the game.

It'll just get worse from here.

They don't need to watch, they have numbers, and to them, that's all that's important.

So I totally expect declining numbers of Americans to play the game because they won't need to.

Instead, they'll go into a sport, such as Basketball, where "hot-dogging' is the name of the game.

[rog]

he's already darned good at NOT flying open on the front side vs LHP, and he'll continue to get better.


Rog -- Last season Steven hit an impressive .333 with an .846 OPS against southpaws. This season he's hitting just .205 with a .489 OPS.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5320/dream-come-true#ixzz5p9ePoJm2

[rog]

I think you are off base with your point, Boly. I have said for a decade or more here that scouting and analytics together are better than either one separately. That wasn't brilliance on my part; that is what major league baseball believed.

I pointed out that my limitation is that while I can identify what I believe Steven's problem is, I don't know how to teach him mechanically how to be more aggressive. That is where guys like you come in. And I'm looking forward to reading a strong approach from you.

This is a situation that is is ironic. Steven needs to get on base more often, which usually means taking a more patient approach. Think Brandon Belt. We get pretty frustrated with him when he takes a lot of called strike three's, but darned if he doesn't wind up making fewer outs than just about anyone on the team.

But in Steven's case, I believe he needs to find a way to be more aggressive. He needs to find a way to put more balls into play earlier in the count. Once he gets to two strikes, he's not even Mario Mendoza. Buster Posey can protect the plate with two strikes; Steven can't.

What I've done here, Boly, is point out my opinion that while Steven could certainly get better on balls hit over his head, it isn't on defense that he needs to get better to become an above-average player. He's already an above-average defender. But virtually any hitter who gets on base less than 30% of the time is hurting his team. That's why Adam Duvall has spent this season in the minors after hitting 84 homers in his 472 games after leaving the Giants, and being an above-average defensive left fielder to boot.

You're the guy who is best qualified to tell us how Steven can change at the plate so that he draws walks but doesn't get to two strikes so often. IMO that's what he needs to do to become an above-average player.

Steven is above average in the field. He's above average on the bases. It is at the plate where he is well below average. If you were his hitting coach, what would you be working with him on? Sounds like the first thing you would do is have him lower his back elbow.

Baseball believes that the combination of scouting and analytics are better than either separately. They believe that the combination of analytics and coaching are better than either separately. I've provided what appear to be clear analytics on Steven's hitting. And because I realize my limitations, I'm leaving the coaching up to the rest of the board.

I could study Steven's swing and see what I come up with. But some of you guys have a lot more experience in the box than I, so I'm recognizing my limitations and leaving that up to you guys.

What I'm saying, Boly, is that your disdain for analytics is wrong -- just as it would be wrong of me to believe I can correct Steven's mechanics anywhere nearly as well as you could. I've laid out a strong hypothesis for what the improvement at the plate by Steven would look like (more walks but ironically, fewer two-strike counts as well -- or a swing that can better fight off two-strike pitches), but I'm yielding to your greater expertise in how Steven can best get there.

I'd really like to learn a lot from this exercise.

[sfgdood]

When you get your baseball "knowledge" from a former security guard named Bill James...well you get the rest

[rog]

Randy, Bill James knows so much more about baseball than you do that he's employed by the Boston Red Sox. Get a life, dude.

[klaiggeb]

Roger, why are you belaboring your point about Duggar?

This thread is about analytics, and is not very subtle in pointing out that in the very near future, kids won't need to go to games to believe they understand baseball.

They need, in their warped minds, only to know the numbers, and thus, they believe they know the game.

I do not wish to get into a discussion about Duggar at the plate and in the field.

You have your opinion, based solely upon numbers, and I have mine, based upon observation, history in the game, and numbers.

To hold this discussion we'd have to do it in person, and honestly, I have no desire to do that.

It's not fun for me.

It's like the kids of the 50's arguing on a street corner who's better; Duke, Willie, or Mickey.

What a waste of time.

[sfgdood]

He knows about numbers,..not baseball

[rog]

What I'm asking you has nothing to do with numbers, Boly.

First, if we assume I have a point about Steven's somehow learning to walk more while being more aggressive and avoiding two strikes, how would you work on his mechanics?

Second, if we assume I'm wrong with my point, how would you work on Steven's mechanics?

Sure, I'd be interested in your opinion as to whether Steven is best served by being more aggressive so he can avoid the two-strike count, but what I'm asking is how you would approach his mechanics.

You said the kids think they know the game because they understand the numbers. As you know, I'm no kid, and what I did was express my opinion based on analytics of how Steven needed to improve. I chose him because in another thread you said that he needed to get better on the ball hit over his head in order to become an above-average player, and I pointed out that IMO he is already above-average defensively and on the bases but needs to greatly improve at the plate -- primarily by getting on base far more often than his career .295 OBP -- to become an above-average player.

Combining the two thoughts, I asked you how you would approach his mechanics in order for him to improve his hitting to the point where he could become an above-average player, which is what the Giants need from him. They don't need him to become a superstar, but it would greatly aid their development if he could complement his above-average defense and base running with above-average hitting, which he's not yet close to. (Steven's career OPS+ is 19% below league average, or about the level of Jose Pagan.)

[klaiggeb]

But why are we discussing Duggar?

This thread is about the "future" and I use that word loosely, of the game soon no longer drawing players to the game because they'll be no reason to even watch!


The post is about no one feeling the need to learn the game's ins and outs because it's all becoming analytics.


If you want to discuss Duggar, please do it in another thread.

Just be aware that it's not a discussion of which I intend to be a part.

Too complicated to do on a board.

[rog]

You said that this thread is about no one's feeling the need to learn the game's in's and out's because it's all becoming analytics. Yet when I admit that I don't know the in's and out's of hitting mechanics and combine this thread with another recent one and ask what you would do with Steven's mechanics (so that I can learn more about one of the in's and out's I don't have expertise in), you don't want to discuss it?

I'm confused.

I can talk strategy with you; I can evaluate players with you; I can even have a limited discussion to say that the new Launch Angle approach involves holding the hands lower and having the bat further back (which would lower Steven's elbow); but I don't have the detailed mechanics knowledge you have. When a batter is slumping, I want to know what he's doing differently and what you would do about it.

[klaiggeb]

Post Options
Post by rog on 4 hours ago
You said that this thread is about no one's feeling the need to learn the game's in's and out's because it's all becoming analytics


I was specifically talking about the future, Rog, not the present.

For instance; in the next 10 to 15 years, why should kids even want to play the game?

Why should they bother to even learn the rules or the mechanics of the game?

No need. They just look up the numbers and they can think they know all there is to know.

[rog]

Boly, it's possible they might want to play because they enjoy the game. My boss has a four-year-old granddaughter who just completed her first year of baseball -- and LOVED it. So did her grandpa, who will likely get roped back into coaching again.

As for your original points, yes, accountants would be interested in the numbers -- if they're interested in baseball. But more than anyone else, it should be the scouts.

What are the two tools the scout takes with him when he scouts a game? A stop watch, so he can time the batter to first base. And a speed gun, so he can see how fast the pitcher is throwing. Before anyone else needed numbers, the scouts did.

As for how much range Brandon Crawford has at shortstop, I suspect the big league teams have it, but I myself don't. I do know his average fastest speed, and since it's the slowest of all 40 big league shortstops, I think it's safe to say that whereas Brandon's range was once very good, it no longer is. Didn't I post that while the fastest shortstops can run about 12 feet in the time it takes Brandon to run 10? Now, positioning plays a big part (although that mostly comes from the coaches now), as does jump. But do you see why when Brandon made a nice sliding block of a ball in the hole the other day and turned it into a force out, I wondered if a rangier shortstop might actually have fielded the ball with enough body control to try for a double play? I've seen them turned on balls that were hit deeply enough in the hole one wouldn't have thought it possible to turn two.

Not only the scouts, coaches and managers but we fans should want to know how fast a player is. It helps us to evaluate him as a player.

And if you were a pitcher, wouldn't YOU want to know how Pillar was hitting against the change up? Wouldn't you want to know how he was hitting against change ups that were similar to yours?

Remember when Austin Slater came up and you were impressed with his hitting? Don't you think it would have useful to know that when he hit the ball the hardest, he hit it into the ground? Don't you think it would have been interesting to know he almost couldn't hit a fly ball to left field, that when he pulled the ball, it was almost always on the ground?

I'm not saying what you know from playing isn't important. What I'm saying is what MLB has realized for a decade or more now -- analytics complement scouting and coaching. Neither one is better alone then both are together.

You keep putting down analytics, but if you knew more about them, don't you think your already-strong baseball knowledge would grow?

[rog]

And, what's wrong about talking about the present, as bleak as it is for the Giants right now? In fact, my question had to do with Steven's future, not his present. I asked what you would have him do if you were working with him to make him a better hitter. I brought up the point that I think he needs to find a way to either avoid getting to two strikes or to greatly improve his ability to make solid contact with two strikes. When I looked, just over half the time Steven had gotten to two strikes this season, he had struck out. If a batter strikes out half the time, he has to bat .500 on the balls he puts into play just to bat .250. I believe Steven was hitting .158 with two strikes.

[donk33]

dk..this debate gets more boring every  day...the worst is to label a guy as a stats nerd who doesn't know the game...especially one who just came over from a team that has managed t win more flags than the Giants have towels in the club house. Who should they have hired, some guy with experience as a scout with a once proud organization and never played the game...put him in charge and give him decades to come up with a winner....and it took hiring back retired scouts to straighten out his drafting ...but it took drafting the wrong Bond and forcing to use his next draft choice to get the right one...not to worry, both failed to produce.It might amuse some to learn some the best guys and scouting and signing talent never played pro...number 1 was Ed Barrow of the Yanks who put together the 1930's Yanks. Their top farm team in Newark could give the NL west an kicking but for the fact most are dead...
Even Sabean won and without a Bond...

Baseball scouting and opposition in the old days were the tale of the data....the only difference was that the data in the old days were in the minds and memories of the players, coaches and scouts. The ones that didn't have the memory wrote things down...pitchers and catchers would write down what got hitters out or not. Fielders kept track where batters hit certain pitches, etc...now it all done for them with computers and goes into more detail...but I am not sure the players give a hoot...just like some in the old days....I would just once look into the dugout when the Giants are up to bat and see Posey talk to the pitcher and discuss how they are going to pitch to them...just once I would like to see this leader talk to any other player outside the meetings on the mound when trouble brews...the lowest I ever felt watching a Giants game was in the start of a critical game, the pitcher shook off Posey on the first pitch of the game.....


Just because a  guy played the game doesn't mean he knows more about the game than a super fan has learned over the years. They might remember what worked for them on the field, but that doesn't mean it would work for some one with different talents,,,,We talk about checking a guys mechanics and I think whose mechanics... Mel Ott with his high leg kick when hitting...or Stan Musial's bat wrapped around his neck so that he had to do a recoil to get the bat across the plate...or maybe Al Simmons who put his foot in the bucket (stepping) away from the plate which would get an average guy's courage questioned.....John McGraw was right, he refused to send Mel Ott to the minors for fear that someone would change his mechanics.....sure, if a kid is having a big problem playing the game, look him over and suggest improvement...Pence did a heck of a job analyzing his swing this winter and he is back swinging a hot bat...too bad the Giants didn't have a DH so they could have kept him around..

[rog]

Very nice comments, Don. I especially enjoyed your comment about writing things down. There were players like Pete Rose who had fabulous memories, but most did indeed need to write things down to remember them. One small problem that is rectified in today's game is that while it is possible to mis-remember something, the data recorded today is usually highly accurate. Plus, far more detail can be recorded.

Not only can a pitcher look up how he got the batter out, he can see just how he set him up, and what the velocity, spin, movement and precise location were. If I were teams, I would also record where the target was set, since pitchers don't always hit it.

Nice points about the odd stances of some of the great players, Don. And a nice comment on Hunter, who despite having only 130 at bats entering today's game, would have led the Giants in batting average, home runs, runs and RBI's. Led them pretty easily too.

But it's great for him that he's doing it in his hometown.