Post by rog on Apr 24, 2019 16:05:20 GMT -5
He's given up his three homers in the past two games, but I think it would be fair of those who have continually criticized Jeff Samardzija for giving up so many home runs to point out that he has now yielded three while the other four Giants starters have given up 19 park exiters.
I have mentioned that I think Jeff's injury last season took away his chance to break out (and as Boagie pointed out, he was old to do so anyway), but it would seem he deserves some credit for containing the long balls, especially since the Giants as a team have yielded 27.
Speaking of Giants starters, there is a point I meant to make about Dereck Rodriguez a couple of weeks ago. Along with Boly, I predicted a significant decline in Rodriguez's performance this season. He simply doesn't strike out many batters, and his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA's pointed to a future decline. And indeed until his past couple of starts, he was headed in that direction.
Then I came across the one point of hope I mentioned over the winter I held out for Dereck: Statcast showed that based on how batters were hitting the ball against him, Dereck was getting about the results he should have. A couple of weeks ago I noticed that even though Dereck's ERA had gone up over a run and a half, Statcast still showed that batters weren't really hitting the ball that hard against him.
Last season Dereck's weighted On Base Average was .289, which clearly contributed to his excellent 2.81 ERA. Based on how batters hit the ball against him, the weighted OBA wasn't that much higher at .300. That was clearly better than the .320 Johnny Cueto was expected to give up and the .321 Madison Bumgarner should have expected. (For reference, wOBA is somewhat comparable to OBP in terms of success. .340 to .350 or higher is a good batting mark.
This season Dereck's wOBA is just .284, and his expected figure is .288. Bumgarner's actual wOBA is almost identical at .283, but Madison's expected wOBA is much higher at .317. Even though his results don't necessarily show it, once again Dereck may have outpitched Madison.
Is Dereck as good as his 2.81 ERA of last season? Probably not. But his 3.54 this season doesn't seem unrealistic. Yes, Dereck pitched over his head a bit last season, but likely not to nearly the extent that Boly and I feared.
With arms being subjected to as much stress as they are, pitchers are volatile creatures. And Dereck has barely improved his strikeouts from 6.8 per nine to 7.1. He's yielded 1.3 homers per nine innings after an excellent 0.7 last season. An increase there isn't unexpected, although Dereck's expected .370 SLG compared to his actual .394 this season indicates the homers could come back down a bit. Dereck's hard-hit rate is up only slightly from 39% to 41%, and his fly ball percentage is down from 38% to 35%.
In summary, while Dereck's Fielding Independent ERA's of 4.04 to 4.24 are slightly concerning (Last season's were 3.74 to 4.58), Statcast shows he's still containing opposing hitters reasonably well. I believe my concerns about Derek's demise were overblown. I may have been placing too much emphasis on Fielding Independent Pitching ERA's and not enough on the raw Statcast data.
Dereck has allowed more homers this season, but there are signs his home run rate could come back down. Meanwhile, he has cut his walk rate by an impressive walk plus per nine innings. Last year Dereck's strikeout percentage less his walk percentage was a below-average 11%. This season the difference is up to 15%, which is pretty much where the floor of a good difference begins.
A positive sign for Bumgarner is that his K% - BB% is up to 20% from last season's career low of just 12%. Jeff Samardzija's 14% difference is way, way up from his horrendous 2% of last season, but still well below the 20% career high he set in 2017. Derek Holland's difference jumped from his career low 5% in 2017 to 14% last season to 19% this year. Drew Pomeranz fell from 14% in his fine 2017 season to just 6% last year, but he's rebounded to 18% this season.
Using just K% - BB% as an indicator, the Giants' rotation looks much improved this season. That's just one indicator, and there are so many to look at. But the rotation looks at least as solid as its ERA's would indicate, and Rodriguez looks like he should avoid any serious sophomore slump. He's not a 2.81 ERA pitcher, but something like 3.81 or less looks reasonable. And that's pretty good.
I have mentioned that I think Jeff's injury last season took away his chance to break out (and as Boagie pointed out, he was old to do so anyway), but it would seem he deserves some credit for containing the long balls, especially since the Giants as a team have yielded 27.
Speaking of Giants starters, there is a point I meant to make about Dereck Rodriguez a couple of weeks ago. Along with Boly, I predicted a significant decline in Rodriguez's performance this season. He simply doesn't strike out many batters, and his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA's pointed to a future decline. And indeed until his past couple of starts, he was headed in that direction.
Then I came across the one point of hope I mentioned over the winter I held out for Dereck: Statcast showed that based on how batters were hitting the ball against him, Dereck was getting about the results he should have. A couple of weeks ago I noticed that even though Dereck's ERA had gone up over a run and a half, Statcast still showed that batters weren't really hitting the ball that hard against him.
Last season Dereck's weighted On Base Average was .289, which clearly contributed to his excellent 2.81 ERA. Based on how batters hit the ball against him, the weighted OBA wasn't that much higher at .300. That was clearly better than the .320 Johnny Cueto was expected to give up and the .321 Madison Bumgarner should have expected. (For reference, wOBA is somewhat comparable to OBP in terms of success. .340 to .350 or higher is a good batting mark.
This season Dereck's wOBA is just .284, and his expected figure is .288. Bumgarner's actual wOBA is almost identical at .283, but Madison's expected wOBA is much higher at .317. Even though his results don't necessarily show it, once again Dereck may have outpitched Madison.
Is Dereck as good as his 2.81 ERA of last season? Probably not. But his 3.54 this season doesn't seem unrealistic. Yes, Dereck pitched over his head a bit last season, but likely not to nearly the extent that Boly and I feared.
With arms being subjected to as much stress as they are, pitchers are volatile creatures. And Dereck has barely improved his strikeouts from 6.8 per nine to 7.1. He's yielded 1.3 homers per nine innings after an excellent 0.7 last season. An increase there isn't unexpected, although Dereck's expected .370 SLG compared to his actual .394 this season indicates the homers could come back down a bit. Dereck's hard-hit rate is up only slightly from 39% to 41%, and his fly ball percentage is down from 38% to 35%.
In summary, while Dereck's Fielding Independent ERA's of 4.04 to 4.24 are slightly concerning (Last season's were 3.74 to 4.58), Statcast shows he's still containing opposing hitters reasonably well. I believe my concerns about Derek's demise were overblown. I may have been placing too much emphasis on Fielding Independent Pitching ERA's and not enough on the raw Statcast data.
Dereck has allowed more homers this season, but there are signs his home run rate could come back down. Meanwhile, he has cut his walk rate by an impressive walk plus per nine innings. Last year Dereck's strikeout percentage less his walk percentage was a below-average 11%. This season the difference is up to 15%, which is pretty much where the floor of a good difference begins.
A positive sign for Bumgarner is that his K% - BB% is up to 20% from last season's career low of just 12%. Jeff Samardzija's 14% difference is way, way up from his horrendous 2% of last season, but still well below the 20% career high he set in 2017. Derek Holland's difference jumped from his career low 5% in 2017 to 14% last season to 19% this year. Drew Pomeranz fell from 14% in his fine 2017 season to just 6% last year, but he's rebounded to 18% this season.
Using just K% - BB% as an indicator, the Giants' rotation looks much improved this season. That's just one indicator, and there are so many to look at. But the rotation looks at least as solid as its ERA's would indicate, and Rodriguez looks like he should avoid any serious sophomore slump. He's not a 2.81 ERA pitcher, but something like 3.81 or less looks reasonable. And that's pretty good.