Whom can the Giants move?

[rog]

Here is today's Giants Q & A from today's MLB Trade Rumors chat:


Q:  Rough game for the g-men last night. Will they be able to unload any of the bad contracts?


A:  Tough to see a suitor for Samardzija, who is 34 and will still be owed $24 mil through 2020 at the deadline. I think you're stuck with guys like Longoria and Melancon as well. Brandons Crawford and Belt are decent-sized contracts that I think could be moveable with solid halves.


Rog -- Samardzija hasn't pitched nearly as well as his ERA indicates.  As you know, I thought a year ago he might be making a positive adjustment, but his injury and age seem to be precluding that.

Longoria and Melancon are tough to move, but they could be gone if the Giants eat enough contract.  After a Spring Training that was so bad I feared he was injured, Melancon has been good once the season started.  He could be making it possible to trade him if the Giants eat enough contract.

I think Belt will be traded at the deadline or over the winter, but the Giants and their fans still seem to hold Crawford in high regard, and he does have a full no-trade contract.  I believe the Giants' best hope of trading Belt is if a contender's first baseman suffers a long-term injury.

[sfgdood]

We've got to stop this ridiculous narrative of "who can we move, and who can't we?" We can't afford to wait until somebody improves his marketability when right now the values just keep going farther south. We need to pull the trigger, get rid of all the dead weight. We already are losing fans so give them something to get excited about. Make some big moves.

[rog]

Randy, Randy, Randy.

I like your passion for blowing things up, but there are things to consider, even if the Giants don't worry about putting butts in the seats and simply try to trade for younger players. Let's look at the players one by one:

. Bumgarner -- Madison's situation is complicated by Dallas Keuchel's still being available. Keuchel may or may not be as good now as Bumgarner, but he's in a similar class. And Dallas is expected to sign for one or two years for about $18 million per year. Madison is making $12 million in this the last season before he can become eligible for free agency. A team isn't likely to give up much for Madison when they can acquire Keuchel without giving up anything. Meanwhile, the Giants have to hope that Madison pitches well enough to build back his value. Teams realize he's a risk, and they know they are buying him for only part of one season.

. Longoria -- Teams could have signed Mike Moustakas over the winter for $10 million for one year without having to give up anything. One could argue that the more powerful Moustakas is a better player than Evan at this stage of their respective careers. That makes Evan's 4/$63 net contract tough to move unless he bounces back to make teams believe they're getting something of value.

. Samardzija -- Whether analytically or with the eye test, Jeff looks like he's still struggling since his serious injury of 2018. At 2/$36, he's close to untradeable unless he builds back his value.

. Cueto -- Johnny might be able to pitch well again when he returns late this season or early next, although post-TJ surgery pitchers are virtually always a risk. He's owed something like 3/$66. Because of the injury, he's virtually untradeable right now, and will likely have to pitch well for at least a little while after he returns if he is to rebuild any value.

. Melancon -- Mark has pitched well so far after a disasterous spring. At 2/$28, he needs to be good for a while in order to build much interest even with the Giants absorbing salary.

. Crawford -- Brandon has a no-trade contract, and making 3/$45 as an aging, sadly not middle-of-the-pack shortstop, he would be less than easy to trade even without the no-trade unless he bounces back with a good half season or so.

. Belt -- Brandon looks healthy, so he's more tradeable than he was during the winter. But he's making 3/$48, and his trade situation is complicated by his being able to veto trades to 10 teams of his choosing. If he figures teams that are rebuilding don't need him and that contending teams with good first baseman also aren't likely to want him, he can darn near put in a total block with his 10 team choice, which he made last November.


You wanted to trade Joe Panik right away, but that is foolhardy, since he's coming off injury and has little trade value. He's very likely to bounce back this season. (Remember, he's lost 10 pounds and has already made fielding and base running plays this season that he couldn't make last year.) That would give him trade value, although at 28, he's also young enough the Giants might want to consider him part of their future and try to re-sign him before he can become eligible for free agency in November, 2020.

The Giants do have tradeable players in relievers Smith and Watson, who together sound like a gun. Maybe they can get the Warriors to trade the retired rights to Chris Gatling as part of the deal. Sam Dyson is also tradeable. The biggest problem is getting the type of big outfield return for relievers who have one or two years of team control left. But one or more of these relievers will almost certianly by gone by the trade deadline.

The bottom line though is that if the Giants don't work carefully to maximize their return for their players, most of whom have little value and/or are difficult to trade, they're cutting off their nose to spite their face, since they don't simply need to get rid of their older players; they need to get a big haul of young guys in return.

Patience, evaluation and timing will be key. You seem to be glossing over an important and quite difficult task. If the Giants are to build a future as you desire, they need to get good value in return for flawed and difficult players.

[sfgdood]

Belt, Panik and Longoria are all below 240 in BA...both Panik and Longoria are below the Mendoza line Belt does have a respectable OPS of 810, but his annual injury will take care of that. Point is, waiting for these guys to suddenly become "tradeable" is a pipe dream. All we will wind up doing is being more and more frustrated.

[rog]

Belt, Panik and Longoria are all below 240 in BA...both Panik and Longoria are below the Mendoza line Belt does have a respectable OPS of 810, but his annual injury will take care of that. Point is, waiting for these guys to suddenly become "tradeable" is a pipe dream. All we will wind up doing is being more and more frustrated.


Rog -- First of all, Randy, one needs to be willing to risk frustration if it means doing the right thing. And unless there is an overriding reason, giving players a shot at bouncing back from a down season (especially if it involves injury) is the right thing to do.

In terms of the future, I can't think of any player I'd rather trade than Evan Longoria. He's owed a net $63 million, and he's already 33 years old. If we'd like the Giants to be competitive in five seasons, how much is he going to be able to contribute to that? In five seasons he likely won't be playing major league baseball anymore.

Here are the reasons I can think of for trading Evan:

. First and foremost, of course, is to get good, young player(s) in return. Hopefully those players CAN help build the future.

. Second is to free up salary money to obtain talent via free agency. That talent can fill holes, add icing to the cake, and perhaps most important to the Giants' future, provide more talent to be flipped for added young talent.

. Third is to unblock prospects so that they can develop into the players of the future.


Let's work backwards:

. Evan Longoria isn't blocking anyone. If he were gone, third base would fall to a combination of Yangervis Solarte and Pablo Sandoval, neither of whom is going to be a significant part of the future. The player who is closest to being a major league third baseman is Ryder Jones, who simply isn't ready (and may never be). Jones has a .184 career major league average. He may himself be injured right now. He has batted only once for Sacramento. Jacob Gonzalez is repeating the Low A Sally League and batting just .167 so far.

. Freeing up $63 million would indeed make a difference, but unless Longoria bounces back from what have been four disappointing season in his past five, the Giants would have to eat most of that in order to get rid of Evan. Rebuilding teams obviously don't need Longoria, and most contending teams already have a third baseman at least as good as Evan was last season.

. If they are to get even one good player in return for Evan, the Giants need him to bounce back a bit and for a contending team to suffer an injury where they really need a potential stabilizing factor such as Longoria. Evan no longer seems capable of carrying a team as he did in his first six or seven seasons, but he hit 36 homers three seasons back, and he won a Gold Glove two seasons ago, so he can be a stabilizing player.


I would trade Evan as soon as I got the chance to get much of anything in return. But if we were another team, how much would we be willing to give up for Evan? How much salary would we expect the Giants to eat? Evan can still play the game a little, but in terms of salary, he is perhaps the Giants' #1 albatross.

What deal can we imagine for Longoria right now that would provide a significant benefit for the long term? And Longoria has at least shown himself to be healthy and doesn't have a no-trade contract, two difficulties which beset many of the other players the Giants would trade.

Most of the players the Giants would like to trade have no-trade clauses, aren't healthy, are coming off down seasons, and done have players in the organization to replace them. Perhaps someone can point out the exceptions and tell us what the Giants could reasonably expect in return this week.




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[rog]

Looking at the Sacramento River Cats, the best hope seems to be on the mound.

Sean Anderson gave up just one run in five innings in his season's debut, striking out five and allowing just two hits and a walk. Tyler Beede pitched four shutout innings, striking out eight while allowing three hits and two walks. Ray Black has pitched four hitless shutout innings of relief, but has walked four while striking out only three. Andrew Suarez has horrible 10.29 ERA and 2.71 WHIP in his two starts.

Outfielder Mike Gerber is the team's leading hitter at .471, but Austin Slater has struck out seven times in 14 at bats. Mac Williamson and Aramis Garcia are hitting .250, and Chris Shaw hasn't played and must be injured. Steven Vogt is hitting only .188, but two of his three hits have been homers.

There's not a lot being blocked at Sacramento, although Anderson, Beede and Suarez are all potential young starters. Ty Blach as well is there for depth.

[rog]

.both Panik and Longoria are below the Mendoza line


Rog -- Anyone know what the irony of the Mendoza Line is?





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[rog]

.both Panik and Longoria are below the Mendoza line


Rog -- What do Panik's Statcast figures tell us about the likelihood of his breaking out?




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[Islandboagie]

Whether we can or if we want to move someone or not, we should enjoy what's happening now. They're playing like they want to win. As Giants fans we should appreciate it, regardless if we think they're taking the right path for the future or not.

[sfgdood]

I've never been a proponent of moral victories, Boagie. This is a results based business. I'd be happy to see management TRYING to build a championship roster...not putting out a losing team that gives great effort. To be clear...I love watching baseball even if my team is being run into the ground by our stats geek-led front office. But I can't support a GM who clearly has no clue what he's doing.

[rog]

I like your attitude here, Boagie! Win or lose, the Giants have played some exciting games.

Personally, I thought they were exciting even back in 1985 when they lost 100 games for the only time in franchise history.

And I'm looking forward to seeing the future first hand tonight in Stockton.

[rog]

But I can't support a GM who clearly has no clue what he's doing.


Rog -- If Farhan has no clue what he's doing, why is he so respected in the industry?

And once again, Randy, what would you have done that Farhan hasn't? And what moves has he made that have hurt the franchise? I'm talking specifics, not just the usual fluff.




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[sfgdood]

Watching CNN and MSNBC, reading the NY Times and the Washington Post before the 2016 Election, Hillary Clinton was pretty darn respected too. They all said she would win in a landslide.

She lost.

[sfgdood]

And once again, Randy, what would you have done that Farhan hasn't? And what moves has he made that have hurt the franchise? I'm talking specifics, not just the usual fluff.


Dood - Stupid question. I'm NOT in his shoes. I don't have the resources he has access to. What I do have is a love for this team which he seemingly doesn't. Fargeek's moves have us with twice as many losses as wins and no real hope of getting anywhere near the brass ring. What I can tell you is that my moves would specifically be designed to build a championship roster...not a perpetually mediocre one that is old and and decrepit and is satisfied with moral victory.

[Islandboagie]

I understand your frustration with the way the current organization looks, I feel the same. But the season has started, it's time to support our guys on the field regardless of the politics behind it.

I like what I'm seeing ON the field. I see a guy (Parra) who gets plunked in the face and is ready to take the field 24 hours later. Belt would have been out for 3 weeks.

I see a guy (Pillar) who leaves it all out on the field. I like the examples that are being set for others to follow. I want to see others taking the same approach that Pillar takes at the plate. He came advertised as not a very good hitter, I disagree. He takes aggressive cuts in hitters counts. If hes not good, he's a smart hitter. Why don't the rest of our guys do that? I hope he sparks something in the rest of these guys. So far it looks like it's catching on.

[sfgdood]

I support the guys on the field...just not the geek in the corner office

[rog]

I support the guys on the field...just not the geek in the corner office


Rog -- Makes sense to me. Support the players who are overpaid and poorly respected, but not the GM who is highly respected.




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