Swinging Could Be the New Hit

[rog]

What is the one thing a batter most has to do to get hits?  The easy answer would seem to be, swing the bat.  Is that what batters should be doing more of?  I read last September that Christian Yelich's sensational second half was spurred by his swinging the bat more, so let's check it out:

In 2018, when Yelich hit the first pitch, he slugged 1.178.  This year he's slugging 1.200.  So far, so good.

Last year on the second pitch, Yelich slugged .727.  This year he's at 3.000!  Even better.

On the third pitch, he slugged .511, and this year's he has slugged 1.333.  Still good, even with those 0-2 counts worked in.

On the fourth pitch, he slugged .397, and this year he's at .800.

On the fifth pitch and later, he slugged .370.  This year he's at .250.  Clearly he falls off as the count goes deeper.


I've recommended a more aggressive approach for Steven Duggar as well.  Let's check Steven out:

On the first pitch last season he slugged .692.  This year he's 0 for 2.

Last year on the second pitch he slugged .500.  This year it's .667.

On the third pitch he slugged .300.  This year he's at .750.

On the fourth pitch he slugged .345.  This year it's 2.000 in 2 at bats!

On the fifth pitch and later, he slugged .370.  This year he's at .250.

So, has Steven become more aggressive?

Last season his plate appearance ended on the following pitch this percent of the time:

First pitch    --   8%

2nd pitch    --  10%

3rd pitch     --  10%

4th pitch     --  20%

Pitch 5+      --  42%


This season:

First pitch   --    7%

2nd pitch    --   10%

3rd pitch     --   13%

4th pitch     --   27%

Pitch 5+      --   43%


I was hoping that Steve was deciding the plate appearance earlier in the count this season, but that doesn't seem to be the case.  He's hitting even better early in the count this season, but he isn't really deciding the at bat earlier.

I think his hitting could improve if he decided the plate appearance earlier in the count.  What do you guys think?

I can tell you for sure that it is working spectacularly well for Christian Yelich.  I've recommended it for both Duggar and for Austin Slater.  With the advantage pitchers enjoy with two strikes becoming bigger and bigger year by year as strikeouts increase, I think many if not most hitters would benefit from almost looking at two strikes as being a strike out.  Very few hitters can hit much once they get to two strikes.  Not even most contact hitters.

I know Jose Altuve has been an exception, but there just aren't many.

What do you guys think?

[sfgdood]

And you wonder why stats geeks are not well received here

[Islandboagie]

If any of our guys could hit like Christian Yelich maybe then I would be more inclined to agree. Otherwise, our guys swinging early and often would only compound the problem and allow the opposing pitcher to have a favorable pitch count.

(Insert Randy's tagline)

[klaiggeb]

I'm with Randy and boagie here, roger.

Our guys have enough trouble hitting the pitch right down the heart of the plate, much less swinging early and often.

[klaiggeb]

Roger, as an ex player, and I'm sure Randy will agree with me, those numbers are the kind of things that gets fans and saber metric people excited, but when it comes to actually playing the game on the field, they are essentially moot and useless.

And I mean sincerely useless.

On paper they look great.

But when the hitter puts his feet in the batter's box, it's a whole different story.

Which is why Randy and I continue to beat the same drum; If you ain't played the game, you don't know.

And this is but one more of many examples we've given in the past.

[rog]

I thought about this when I got up this morning, and I realize it's not quite as easy as I have made it appear. I have pointed out in the past that Christian Arroyo actually tried to take the opposite tack. He was able to make contact so easily -- although not always productive contract -- that he tried to be willing to take strikes in order to get a pitch he can drive.

I watched Steven yesterday, and although he took some strikes that possibly he shouldn't have, he was reasonably aggressive -- and all it got him was a one for five. Swinging at pitches and being able to productively put them in play are two related but different things. But that, of course, was just one game.

I have also heard hitters say that especially against a really tough reliever, they simply take a particular pitch in a particular place, since they can't hit it anyway. If they get called out on strikes, they figure they haven't lost that good a chance to get a hit against that particular pitch and just have to tip their cap to the pitcher.

F.P. Santangelo was very selective with no strikes, a little less so with one strike, and simply tried to protect with two strikes. If hitting were simple, everyone would hit .300.

But the pitchers are so good now that once they get a batter to two strikes, they strike them out half the time. If the pitcher strikes you out half the time, you've got to hit .600 on the balls you do hit in order to bat .300 overall. That's why almost no one hits .300 with two strikes. Buster Posey is considered a good two-strike hitter, and he hits just .237 and slugs just .333 with two strikes. His batting average with fewer than two strikes is higher than his slugging percentage once he gets to two strikes. Clearly even in Buster's case, it's highly advantageous for him not to get to two strikes.

When I was thinking this morning, Boly, I thought of how you dislike it when the Giants' hitters don't have a plan. Sometimes I wonder if it's that they don't have a plan, or simply that pitchers are so good that they sometimes get fooled and look like they don't have a clue.

I liked when you said that the Giants haven't been lying down, but I also wondered if they hadn't been getting late hits, if you would have felt like they didn't have a plan or weren't focused.

I get surprised in fantasy ball how streaky even a "team" of really good, unrelated hitters can get. Thursday and yesterday my team of Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Eloy Jimenez, Whit Merrifield, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson, Jonathan Villar, Michael Conforto, Trey Mancini and Amed Rosario hit a 3 for 38 slump. Those guys are very good hitters, they faced many different pitchers, and they played for many teams. It would have been easy to say that the "team" had lost its focus. In reality, it simply experienced that huge variance that can occur in a small sample. I've had my teams hit over .500 one day, then hit .100 on another. One day my first 27 batters went hitless, the equivalent of a no-hitter by an aggregate of averagish pitchers against All-Star level hitters.

I was thinking that if hitters took the more aggressive approach I suggested, they wouldn't take that pitch right down the middle you hate so much and look as if they don't have a plan. Of course, if they swing at balls in the dirt, they wouldn't look like they had a great plan either.

So one the one hand I agree with you that my thinking was overly simplistic until I wrote it out and saw how I felt about it. On the other hand, Christian Yelich went from being a good hitter to just about as good a hitter as there is in the game when he switched to the aggressive approach I recommended for hitters like Steven Duggar and Austin Slater.

I'll have to try to find the article so I can post it here for others to read, but I can tell you that it showed how much more aggressive Christian was in the second half of last season. In the first half, he had been pretty much the Christian Yelich we had come to know and which you and I and others here wanted the Giants to try to get. He hit .292 with a .459 slugging. But after getting highly aggressie, he became Babe Ruth, batting .367 with a .770 SLG. So far this season he's hitting .379 with a .931 slugging percentage.

While not every hitter is Christian Yelich -- heck, even Christian Yelich wasn't CHRISTIAN YELICH until he became highly aggressive -- I'm convinced there's something to this. When Yelich became highly aggressive, he immediately became highly successful. Wildly successful.

I've got to find that article!

[rog]

Here is a link to the article I mentioned. The author went to work for a major league team a month or two ago -- the Reds IIRC.


blogs.fangraphs.com/what-christian-yelich-has-changed/

[rog]

So Yelich went from being particularly patient in April to particularly patient in August. In April, 78% of the players swung at more first pitches than he. By August, he had more than reversed that, and only 9% of hitters swung at more first pitches. On top of that, his average launch angle went from an average 1.7 degrees in 2015 to 11.2 degrees in 2018.

First he began swinging with a higher angle on first pitches. That change has been ongoing for quite a while. Then part way through last season, he began swinging far more often. What Yelich has basically done is let it fly. And his hitting has taken off with his new approach.

The point was made that Yelich is a very good hitter. Up until the middle of last season, he was indeed a good hitter. But on the fly he switched from being particularly patient to being particularly aggressive, and in the process went from being a good hitter to a great one.

As I mentioned in an earlier threat, Christian opened his stance (and hips) and began his set up earlier. He had already been increasing his launch angle early in the count. When he then went from being particularly patient to being particularly aggressive, his hitting took off.

At the very least, this concept is worthy of your thought. That added aggressiveness wasn't simply helpful for Yelich; it was HUGE. Over the course of half a season plus, at least, it has changed him from Babe Herman George Herman (Babe) Ruth.

[rog]

So, what can the other Christian -- the former Giant Arroyo -- learn from Christian Yelich. Ironically, Arroyo was trying to become more patient so that he could wait for pitches he could drive. Seemed to work pretty darn well for him at Sacramento in 2017, when he hit .396 with a .604 slugging percentage.

But when he got to the majors, he found pitches could suddenly strike him out, making it tougher to show the patience. Last season though he hit a respectable .264, as he hit the ball hard over half the time. His problem? More even than Yelich, he hit the ball on the ground. And like Austin Slater, it appears he hit the ball HARDEST when he hit it on the ground.

So perhaps Arroyo, as I believe is the case with Slater (who tried over the winter to do so) needs to increase his launch angle. Or maybe like Yelich, he can do so early in the count and then switch to a line drive/ground ball/protect swing as Yelich seems to do.

As for Duggar, he's swinging and missing even more this season, but he's hitting the ball harder when he hits it. He's hitting more line drives and ground balls. I truly do think Steven would benefit from being more aggressive, since that should help him avoid the two-strike counts more often.

Hitting the ball hard more often (40% vs. last year's 29%) is obviously a good thing for Steven. Striking out 37% of the time instead of 29% obviously is very bad. If Steven can swing at more strikes without going outside the strike zone too often (He's at a respectable 31% this year, up only slightly from last season's 29%), he should get in fewer two-strike counts and strike out less often.

As a lead off man, a question arises though as to whether he can simultaneously cut back on his strikeouts while getting his meager 3% walk rate this season back up to last year's modest enough 7% - and hopefully higher. Steven needs improvement, but to me he LOOKS better this season, an improvement Boly noticed as last season went on.

The best thing Steven has done as a major league hitter is hit southpaws, something he struggled with sometimes in the minor leagues. He's simply not going to continue hitting them as well though, given that his Batting Average on Balls In Play against southpaws is a staggering .500. That can't continue.

In order to become a good major league hitter, I believe Steven needs to be able to be more aggressive without going outside the strike zone too often. Easier said than done, I realize, but I believe it begins with a more aggressive plan at the plate.

Steven isn't hitting the fastball as well as last season, and he's still very vulnerable to change ups and split fingers, but he's still hitting the curve ball, and he is much improved on sliders and cutters. He just can't afford to get in those two-strike counts where pitchers can strike him out with their change ups and splitters.

[garyd4sf]

One thing o keep in mind...the Dodgers are deep count hitters. They look for particular areas to hit and swing at a launch angle that works for HRs. If they hit the first pitch all the time they wouldn't get that multi-run HR that often.

Stats be damned, they use common sense in this case.

[sfgdood]

yeah, it's that easy...you just set the automatic launch angle dial to where they want it and boom...right?

[Islandboagie]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with now playing in a homerun friendly park.

[rog]

One thing o keep in mind...the Dodgers are deep count hitters. They look for particular areas to hit and swing at a launch angle that works for HRs. If they hit the first pitch all the time they wouldn't get that multi-run HR that often.

Stats be damned, they use common sense in this case.


Rog -- You make what may be a strong point, Gary. Certainly hitters are letting it fly and not worrying about getting to two strikes. I think it does come down to a balance of having the patience to wait for your pitch (which I've long advocated) with having the aggressiveness to hit hittable pitches when they come, rather than fouling them back or, worse, taking them.

The Dodgers have indeed hit nearly a third (7 out of 22) of their home runs this season with two strikes, but while they're hitting for some power down two strikes, they're hitting only .200 in such counts. Their patience has been rewarded some with 24 walks in the 55 times the count has gone full. All in all, it has led to an impressive .699 OPS with two strikes, which is excellent for such counts. The Giants' overall OPS is just .601, which is horrendous.

The Dodgers are surviving with two strikes because of their power and their ability to draw walks. But what has made them so outstanding offensively this season is what they've done BEFORE two strikes. When they've resolved the at bat with fewer than two strikes, their OPS is an other-worldly 1.141.

In other words, with two strikes, the Dodgers are Chris Davis. Before two strikes they're Babe Ruth.

You have made a fine point here, Gary. Because they have hit for power and have guys who can take walks, they've been better hitters with two strikes than the Giants are overall. But if the Dodgers' Ruthian tendencies prior to two strikes that have made them an offensive juggernaut.

Feel free to add the common sense rebuttal. I have to say that I was quite surprised at how well the Dodgers have reached base and hit for power with two strikes. But what stunned me is that they have hit like Babe Ruth before getting to two strikes.

How do you guys see it?

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5219/swinging-new-hit#ixzz5kQHgfctv

[rog]

yeah, it's that easy...you just set the automatic launch angle dial to where they want it and boom...right?


Rog -- Randy, the way to learn is to read and absorb. If you had done so, you would realize that it took Christian Yelich three years to get to the high launch angle he used early in counts last season. Is my baseball understanding off here, or is that a little different from setting "the automatic launch angle dial?" You would also realize that Christian's huge change happened quickly when he went from being a very patient hitter early in the count to being one of the most aggressive.

I worry that I will learn much from you because you rarely bring up anything I don't already know,and I worry that you will rarely learn from me because you seem incapable of reading and absorbing, instead taking quick detours to try to run away from your seeming inability to grow.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5219/swinging-new-hit?page=1#ixzz5kQN0P3ZX

[rog]

The NL West is indeed becoming more homer-friendly, Boagie. Both Dodger Stadium and now-Oracle Park have become more hitter-friendly. Same with San Diego. The tough spot for hitters now may be Phoenix when the humidor is on.

[rog]

Still, easy parks or hard, what the Dodgers have done with two strikes is highly impressive, and what they've done before two strikes provides thoughts of the ghost of Babe Ruth.

[rog]

Here's some perspective from what Gary originally brought up:

. The Dodgers' OPS before two strikes is 442 points higher than their OPS with two strikes.

. That's nearly three-quarters of the Giants' team OPS -- just the difference between the Dodgers' OPS with two strikes and before two strikes. I haven't calculated it, but I'll be that difference is close to the Giants' team OPS once they get to two strikes. And the Dodgers' 1.141 OPS before two strikes is 90% higher than the Giants' .601 overall OPS.

. The Dodgers have done what must be approaching historic levels of hitting to start a season. And meanwhile the Giants can't hit to save their lives. Just the Dodgers' slugging percentage with no strikes or one is clearly higher than the Giants' on base percentage PLUS slugging percentage overall.

How did the Dodgers get to be such great hitters, while the Giants can't seem to hit at all?

As an aside, Michael Reed cleared waivers and was assigned to Sacramento. That should certainly solve the hitting problems!