So Here is How I See the Giants' Plan

[rog]

Now that the Giants' new regime has been in place for 4 1/2 months, here is how I see their plan:

.  Try to ride the Giants' pitching as far as it will carry the team in 2019, hoping for reasonably-expected bounce backs by Buster and the infield.

.  Be on the lookout 24/7 for even small chances to improve the 40 man and Sacramento rosters.

.  Take full advantage of picking #10 overall and as Boagie points out, in every round of the 2019 draft.

.  Be more active in the international marketplace.

.  Evaluate the team as the season goes along, hoping to be able to add to the roster to make the team even more competitive, but realizing that the season will likely cause the team to be sellers at the deadline.

.  Be willing to make move after move, hoping that a few will work out.

.  Be very value-oriented in player acquisition at all levels.

.  Combine the best of scouting and analytics.

.  Combine traditional player development methods with analytical methods to improve the roster and organization from within.

.  Recognize that the top of the free agent market is drying up but that there are big values to be had with middle class free agents.

.  Realize that while free agent spending is on the decline, it will likely increase again when a new Collective Bargaining Agreement goes into place in a few years.  Remain prudent in spending, but be willing to stretch out in the most advantageous situations realizing that while longer contracts haven't worked out well historically, and the cost per win isn't going up right now, that cost will very likely go up in the future, allowing a prudent bid to go a little higher.

.  Focus on acquiring hitters through the draft and trades, realizing it's a lot easier to get free agent pitchers to come to San Francisco than free agent power hitters.  Recognize that if non-powerful hitters reach the free agent market, Oracle Park is fine for base hits -- just not power, especially power from the left side. 

[klaiggeb]

all of your points are good ones, Roger, but you left out the one I consider equally, or perhaps even more important.

Stop trading for guys whose careers are on the decline, giving up young talent, proven or other wise.

Some recent examples would be:

Span
Longoria
McCutchen
Samaradizja
Moore
Casey what's-his name...


There are dozens more, but that's a start

[rog]

Stop trading for guys whose careers are on the decline, giving up young talent, proven or other wise.


Rog -- I thought that went without saying. Clearly Farhan has resisted such moves thus far.





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[klaiggeb]

He has.

Instead, he's been all over the map trying to get lucky, again.

What he's done so far is inspiring to no one on the club, nor the club's fans.

His moves look scattered, off the wall, and clueless.

Not the sign of a good leader, nor is it a sign of a guy with a plan.

[rxmeister]

Have to agree with Boly here, but in his defense, this is his first time running a franchise and it’s quite a learning experience. That being said he’s all over the place. Just look at backup catcher. Signs Cameron Rupp, who is a legit backup catcher with great power on a team that needs it badly. Then he trades him! Signs Rene Rivera, who is an excellent defensive catcher and handler of pitchers and then cuts him after he has a nice spring. Signs Steven Voigt, a signing I did like, but he’s coming off surgery and needs to spend some extra time rehabbing. Then he trades for 39 year old Erik Kratz! All the while Aramis Garcia is having an excellent spring training for nothing. Even if what Rog is saying about Garcia is accurate, why not keep him until Voigt is ready? Why not keep Rivera till Voigt is ready? Zaidi just looks weird and indecisive here. And that’s just backup catcher! Don’t get me started on the Conor Joe’s and the countless others he’s signed and released. Matt Joyce? Signs him and trades him the next day? WTF?

[sfgdood]

What I see of the plan is this...keep old guys on the roster who suck. Acquire more old guys that suck on the field but have the cool stats feature.

[rog]

His moves look scattered, off the wall, and clueless.

Not the sign of a good leader, nor is it a sign of a guy with a plan.


Rog -- I wrote out his plan as I see it, so clearly I believe he has one. I don't see his moves as clueless, but rather pushing a lot of envelopes, and opening them as they become available.

When we say a guy doesn't have a plan, we probably just don't understand it. You're right, Boly, when you say that just because a guy is smart in one area doesn't mean he's a smart GM, but Farhan is smarter than all of us here put together, and he has studied major league baseball pretty close to as much as we all here have -- put together.

Look at the position Mark is taking: Because Farhan has such a fine reputation, he's still with him long term. Because he isn't satisfied with the moves Farhan has made this off-season, he's given him an "F" so far. Not THAT'S rational, even if I don't agree with it fully. I would give Farhan higher than an "F" this off-season, but as I have continually pointed out, he hasn't made any moves that shriek out genius, either. Trevor Gott would probably come the closest. That one has caught me by surprise, although maybe that's simply because I hadn't and haven't researched the guy.



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[rxmeister]

And Travis Bergen was a nice Rule V pickup. Most rule V’s are returned to the team or you keep them on the 25 because it’s the only way you don’t have to give him back, but Travis Bergen has actually earned a spot in the bullpen with a great spring.

[rog]

I understand how it looks as if Farhan is simply flailing, but I see it a little differently. As Alex Pavlovic mentioned prior to last night's game, the Giants last season weren't only weak at the major league level; they were weak all the way down to Class A ball. Farhan is trying to more or less audition as many potential players as he can, hoping to build depth not only at the major league level, but perhaps by sneaking guys through waivers so they can be available at Sacramento.

Based on the spring, his hits so far appear to be the aforementioned Bergen (Randy's favorite), Trevor Gott, Nick Vincent, Yangervis Solarte and Erik Kratz. He's still got a lot of question marks on the roster, and he's had some misses. But notice that he's gotten something back for some of the misses, such as the aforementioned Rupp.

Today the Giants traded Chris Stratton for lefty reliever Williams Jerez. I don't know if Jerez has as much potential as Stratton or not, but he does have options, meaning the Giants can send Jerez down to Sacramento for added depth without risking losing him. Nothing brilliant, but a smart type of move.

Outfielder Socrates Brito was just waived by the Diamondbacks. He has only a .202 career average, but he put up a .923 OPS in AAA last season, so he might be another player the Giants look at, although they're running out of time.

It's been a frustrating off-season. Bryce Harper would have made it exciting, but it's quite possible that not signing such a risky player for so much money will turn out to be a good move, as disappointing as the result of their chase was.

I thought Mark made a good point about the Giants' not acquiring Domingo Santana, who was good enough in 2017 to be on my fantasy team for a while. It's possible that because of his stolen bases, Santana has more fantasy value than real value, but he's also a potential five-tool player. He strikes out a ton, but he's also got some things going for him, including some power (which of course would likely have been blunted somewhat at Oracle, although not as much as if he hit left-handed).

Boly had mentioned Avisail Garcia, and Mark brought Garcia back up again in a funny way. I went back and forth of Garcia, but when I found out he was a better fielder than i had thought, I was in on him. IIRC he went for only $3.5 million guaranteed with a chance to make as much as $6.0 mill via bonuses. I think that's a fair price, and he's on my list of guys the Giants missed.

One thing I believe we might not be giving the Giants enough credit for this off-season though is that they sort of let the off-season come to them, rather than chase after names and locking up more salary for the future. The Giants already have by far more money locked up in over-30 guys than any other team. They appear to have improved slightly in the off-season without long-term commitments and while I believe getting slightly younger.

The Giants are an odd team in that if eveyrone came through, they COULD still compete. Unlikely, but not impossible. But their combination of high salary commitments to older players coupled with a poor farm system, especially at the higher levels, leaves them mostly dangling. They're likely not good enough to compete, but too good to challenge for the #1 overall draft choice.

I liked that Mark was specific in his criticisms, mentioning primarily Santana and Garcia. Boly had mentioned Garcia. But for the most part, nobody has a lot of great ideas that the Giants should have cashed in on.

It's easy to point to Harper, but we don't even know how much money it would have taken to sign him. Personally I think Harper would have been foolish to sign with the Giants and wound up right where he should have -- in hitter-friendly Philly. At least the Dodgers didn't get him!

The Dodgers didn't get him because they were unwilling to commit beyond four years, although they were said to be willing to pay him what would have been by far the highest Average Annual Value at $180 million for his four pre-age-30 seasons. In a way, it's surprising Harper didn't take their offer. At age 30, he would have needed to get only a 9/$140 free agent contract to make more money than he's making with the Phils. And he would have immediately gone to one of the best teams in the majors, which the Phils themselves may be approaching.

But Dodger Stadium isn't a hitters' park, and he would have had to pay California taxes, not to mention fighting all that traffic. (How do you know if a driver in Southern California is an outsider? If he uses his turn signal.)

Action doesn't necessarily translate to results, but I've got to say we may never have been this much action in an off-season. Is it because Farhan doesn't really know what he is doing and is merely flailing if not failing? Maybe. But I like that he's been aggressive without taking big risks.

I think we STILL don't know what the roster will look like, even with the season just two days away. But I think it's already improved, and the Giants haven't hurt either their present or their future, even as they've added a few decent under-30 players (and one 38-year-old geezer).