Pitching the Roster Case for the Giants Hurlers

[rog]

The Giants simply have too many good candidates for pitching roster spots.  Not exactly the worst problem in the world to have.

The starters have already been announced as Bumgarner, Holland, Samardzija, Rodriguez and Pomeranz.  It is expected that the Giants will take advantage of Andrew Suarez's remaining option to send him to Sacramento for more seasoning.

But the bullpen gets brutal.

I mentioned that Smith, Watson, Dyson, Moronta, Bergen, Gott and Vincent (the last three being new) have a combined ERA of 0.81 this spring.  Those guys pretty much have to make it, don't they?  That leaves Mark Melancon, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton for the one remaining spot.

Blach and Stratton have each pitched decently this spring, with respective ERA's of 3.55 and 4.60.  Melancon has been awful at 9.45.  Based on how they've pitched this spring, Blach seems to deserve the last spot, but he may have an option left, whereas I have read that Stratton is out of them.  With his tremendously high curve spin rate, Stratton also seems to have the greater potential.  It would seem that Stratton gets the nod if Blach has an option left.

But what about Melancon, one of the highest-paid relievers in the game?  (His contract was in fact very briefly the HIGHEST of any reliever in the game.)  His performance this spring implies that he may be either injured or done.  Hard to believe it's the latter, but who knows for sure?

Or maybe he's just in a slump.  I would try to find a medical reason to put him on the injured list (apparently it's no longer called the disabled list).  If there isn't one, I would find out if my coaches and scouts thought he had anything left.  I would hate to sacrifice Stratton, but I also wouldn't want to give up on Melancon unless I was pretty sure.

On the other hand, Farhan certainly understands the concept of sunk costs.  Unless they can trade him, the Giants are going to have to pay Mark something like $28 million whether they keep him or not.  He might have the guts to bite the bullett and say that Stratton is too valuable to risk losing, and simply cut Mark loose.

Realistically though, if Mark ISN'T done, the Giants could shed at least some of his salary and get at least something in return if Mark can bounce back some.  If I were Farhan, the guys I depend on would have to convince me that Mark were done in order for me not to try almost anything to keep him, hoping that his value rebounds.

Just how good is Stratton?  If the Giants designated him, would he get claimed?  If they lost him, how much would they be losing?  If it were my decision, it would rest a lot on what they guys I trusted told me.

As an aside, the three pitchers from whom the Giants demanded one of the three from the Brewers in a Bumgarner trade have each made the Brewers' rotation.  It's little wonder the Brewers didn't trade any of them for Madison.  Remember though that the Giants could possibly trade Madison, Samardzija, Holland, Pomeranz, Smith, Watson, Dyson and Vincent at the trade deadline.  Not all those guys would go, but it seems possible that as many as half of them might.

If the Giants aren't contending at the deadline (which remember, is now July 31st, not a double deadline including August 31st), we'll see more about the direction they are going to take going forward.  The guys I mentioned here are all close to 30 or over.  We might see how much the Giants want to get younger.

This winter they've gotten younger, but not vastly so.

[rog]

By the way, most of us weren't all that high on the Giants' bullpen going into Spring Training, were we? If we throw Blach into the mix with the seven previously mentioned relievers who posted the combined 0.81 ERA this spring, the group of eight posted an ERA that was still below 1.50. That's pretty incredible.

And don't forget that the new guys -- Bergen, Gott and Vincent -- combined for 0.66. That's what two earned run in 27.1 innings works out to.

It's just Spring Training, of course, but are we beginning to get an idea of how being diligent in adding depth to the 40-man roster can pay off?

[rog]

A guy who needs a lot of fixing but might in the long run have value is Rockies catcher Tom Murphy, whom Colorado just put on waivers. Murphy has put up a .930 OPS this spring, although he's struck out 9 times in 28 at bats. He's hit 3 homers in those 28 at bats. Murphy will turn 28 a week from Tuesday, and is out of options.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- And don't forget that the new guys -- Bergen, Gott and Vincent -- combined for 0.66. That's what two earned run in 27.1 innings works out to.

It's just Spring Training, of course, but are we beginning to get an idea of how being diligent in adding depth to the 40-man roster can pay off?

Boagie- I already had an idea, because we've seen similar moves (often more impactful) from Sabean. Why do you act as if he's doing something we've never seen before?

[klaiggeb]

Roger, this sounds like a number of posts trying to convince us that we are wrong about Zaidi...yes?

[rog]

Boagie- I already had an idea, because we've seen similar moves (often more impactful) from Sabean. Why do you act as if he's doing something we've never seen before?

Rog -- Brian too was quite good at adding to the roster with minor moves, although the Giants seemed to lose that ability somewhat toward the end of his reign, or perhaps more when Bobby Evans became more actively involved. The 2010 Giants in particular had a LOT to do with lesser moves such as Torres, Uribe, Burrell, Lopez and Ramirez. Even Pat Burrell cost only $3 million.

I didn't mean to act as if this has never happened before. The one thing that I haven't seen before is three new pitchers picked up for virtually nothing who have fared as well as Gott, Bergen and Vincent. I myself was taken completely aback by how well Gott has pitched. But at least now when the umpire approaches Bruce at the mound and asks, "Got your reliever?" Bruce can literally reply "Yes."

The trade for Lopez and Ramirez at the deadline in 2010 would be the closest parallel to these three guys. Randy called the pair "ham and eggers," disparaging the trade (as usual), only to find that Ramirez posted a 0.62 ERA and Lopez went 1.42 the rest of the way.

Few remember him or his impact on the highly important September/October stretch drive, but the Giants acquired the unheralded Chris Ray when they traded Yadier Molina to clear the way for Buster Posey to start. Ray injured his arm and missed the second half of August, but he returned in September to pitch scorelessly in seven of his eight relief appearances, fashioning a 2.00 ERA in his final nine innings.

Put Ray on top of Ramirez and Lopez (although Chris didn't have as much overall success), and you've got something remindful of what the new trio of relievers has done. WITHOUT Mark Melancon, the Giants have had the majors' top bullpen this spring.




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[rog]

Roger, this sounds like a number of posts trying to convince us that we are wrong about Zaidi...yes?


Rog -- Here is the thing with Farhan: If he had been able to sign Bryce Harper, he would have made a name for himself. Instead, he's had to settle for a series of many small moves designed to improve the depth of the 40-man roster. I would say he's been reasonably (not vastly) successful overall, doing what has thus far been a fabulous result with the bullpen and a good one with the rotation, but not much of any success where it was most needed -- the outfield. Parra is a successful major league outfielder, but that's been about it. Maybe was a big disappointment, and Joyce lasted all of three days!

The good thing about Farhan though is that he's already made his name as a guy who can evaluate talent. The Dodgers remained quite successful even as he cut by far the highest payroll in baseball below the salary cap. He was able to pull a few seeming rabbits out of hats, providing versatility and depth at very little cost.

Regardless of who the GM is, I have been quite impressed by how well the bullpen has pitched this spring -- and how well the little-known Gott, Bergen and Vincent have performed. I don't see Farhan's contributions this winter to be all that big, but he has excelled with the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen.

The Giants have added catcher Erik Kratz this morning, getting him in exchange for infield C.J. Hinosa, a minor prospect. I barely knew Kratz before the deal, and he'll soon turn 39, but he's known for his fine catching abilities (particularly pitch framing) and for some key hits last postseason. This makes it look as if Kratz will be the backup catcher, and perhaps it's in part because of his ability to work with pitchers. If a catcher can help make his pitching staff better, it makes up for a lot of hitting, and Kratz hasn't been a very good hitter.

If the Giants want to build up their young catching, former Giant Andrew Susac has been informed he won't make his team's roster. As we recall, Andrew was once a fine prospect, but he got injured and has never been the same.

I was thinking of Andrew just yesterday when thinking of what a good center fielder Aaron Hicks has become. A few winters back I espoused trading for Hicks, and and I believe Susac would have done the trick. The Yankees were able to pick up the now 29-year-old center fielder for just John Ryan Murphy, batting just .190 for the Diamondbacks and embattled in a three-way contest to make the Diamondbacks' catching staff. If the Giants had traded for Hicks, their outfield would look a lot better right now, and we might have been spared the embarassment of Denard Span and Austin Jackson.

The bottom line is that just as I had never been as involved with a Giants draft choice as I became when they signed Tim Lincecum, I've never been as intrigued by small roster moves as this winter, although I will admit to lobbying for Uribe before the Giants signed him. And I've never seen three such unheralded relievers have such a fine spring as Bergen, Vincent and Gott. Gottcha on that one, huh?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- I didn't mean to act as if this has never happened before. The one thing that I haven't seen before is three new pitchers picked up for virtually nothing who have fared as well as Gott, Bergen and Vincent.

Boagie- Vogey, Petit and Kontos were all acquired before spring of 2012 for virtually nothing. Just a hunch, but I doubt Gott, Bergen and Vincent will fare as well.

Not only did Sabean acquire those 3, he also traded to get Melky and Pagan. We added Blanco and Arias for virtually nothing, as well as Justin Christian whom as I recall had a nice spring. Clay Hensley and Shane Loux were added for more bullpen depth, Brad Penny and Eric Hacker for rotation depth (which we didn't need that season.)

Once the season started we added Scutaro, Jean Machi, Jose Mijares and Xavier Nady.

I have no problem with a lot of these low impact moves Zaidi has made...but very few have been impactful. Now, if you could take the moves that were made in 2010 or 2012 (when Sabean felt moves had to be made) I would be much more optimistic about this season. I'm not ripping on Zaidi, but I will disagree if you continue to paint him as this savior that has revolutionized the art of filling a roster when Sabean made a career in S.F. of doing the same thing, only better.

[klaiggeb]

but I will disagree if you continue to paint him as this savior that has revolutionized the art of filling a roster when Sabean made a career in S.F. of doing the same thing, only better.




boly says---You summed it up quite nicely for me, too, boagie.

I don't see him as a savior.

I don't see him as a great evaluator of talent, either.

I don't see him doing anything differently than any thousand other GM's have done.

What he did for LA was get freaking lucky.

That's the long and short of it.


Was Sabean a great evaluator when he picked up Vogey, whom no one else wanted?

Or Blanco or Torres?

Sure, you could make a case that "he saw it coming," but I would argue the opposite point of views.

Those guys had NO CAREERS prior to coming to the Giants.

None.


So painting Zaidi as smarter than Sabean is not just wrong, it's also unjustified, for all of the reasons you pointed out, boagie, and more.

[rog]

Boagie- Vogey, Petit and Kontos were all acquired before spring of 2012 for virtually nothing. Just a hunch, but I doubt Gott, Bergen and Vincent will fare as well.


Rog -- I think you're right. That was quite a haul for one off-season. Although upon further review, Ryan came before the 2011 season, so the trio in 2012 was actually Petit, Kontos and Guillermo Mota. That's still a pretty good trio though. While I'm hoping that Gott, Bergen and Vincent will be better, if they're merely equal to the other trio, that would be pretty good.

I remember well when the Giants traded Chris Stewart to the Yankees for Kontos just prior to the season. No one here seemed impressed at the time, although it appears that George showed some potential.

I could never figure out why Boly didn't take to George at all. Not that Kontos was the world's best pitcher, but with the Giants he put up a 3.05 career ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. His role was much lesser than Madison Bumgarner, of course, but his ERA and WHIP were rather similar to Madison's 3.03/1.11. My sense is that by the time Madison's Giants career is over, his Giants ERA will be higher than George's, although I think he will still retain the lower WHIP.

But I can't figure out why Boly thinks that Madison's signs of decline are moot, while never giving George anything approaching what I (and most of the baseball world) felt was George's due. George was just a middle reliever, but he was actually a very good one. There simply aren't a lot of middle or long relievers who put up 3.05 ERA's. I thought Petit was a pretty good Giant, but his Giants ERA of 3.81 was three-quarters of a run higher than George's.

Anyway, I think your point about Petit, Kontos and Mota is a good one.




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[rog]

I don't see him as a savior.

I don't see him as a great evaluator of talent, either.

I don't see him doing anything differently than any thousand other GM's have done.


Rog -- I agree with you that Farhan isn't a savior (at least not yet, although I'm hopeful for the future that he will be quite successful). But he is respected in the industry as a fine evaluator of talent, and the reason you don't see him doing anything differently than thousands of other GM's have done is that you don't know what it is that he's actually done. You don't know what steps he goes through to decide which players to acquire. I'm virtually positive his methodology is different than Brian's.

I think the chances that the board will appreciate Farhan eventually are quite good. I also think that the majority of the board doesn't understand Farhan's approach. But hopefully that will change as Farhan has more success.


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[rog]

Was Sabean a great evaluator when he picked up Vogey, whom no one else wanted?

Or Blanco or Torres?


Rog -- I would say that in those cases, he was.





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[klaiggeb]

I don't agree with you, Rog.

With Blanco and Torres and Vogey he simply got lucky.

And remember, I'm a huge Sabean fan.

[Islandboagie]

Boagie- Vogey, Petit and Kontos were all acquired before spring of 2012 for virtually nothing. Just a hunch, but I doubt Gott, Bergen and Vincent will fare as well. 


Rog -- I think you're right. That was quite a haul for one off-season. Although upon further review, Ryan came before the 2011 season, so the trio in 2012 was actually Petit, Kontos and Guillermo Mota.

Boagie- You're right about Vogey, he came in 2011. However, you're wrong about Mota, he came to the Giants in 2010. But the overall point is Sabean has been finding treasures amongst the scrap heap for years, it's not some revolutionary idea brought here by Zaidi, and Sabean was better at it than Zaidi has shown thus far.

[rog]

What he did for LA was get freaking lucky.


Rog -- He may have. It never hurts. I've long felt that Brian might have gotten a bit lucky with Jeff Kent, but the point is that he did his scouting homework, got several good players, and Kent just happened to be the one who paid off by far the most. Farhan may have gotten lucky too. But he too did his homework, and he is judged to be one of the most knowledgeable when it comes to the combination of scouting and analytics.

Farhan's reputation was excellent with the Dodgers, and it was also excellent with the A's. He's highly respected by hyis peers. They say the harder you work, the luckier you get. And Farhan's reputation is that he works very hard and very smart.

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[rog]

I don't agree with you, Rog.

With Blanco and Torres and Vogey he simply got lucky.

And remember, I'm a huge Sabean fan.



Rog -- Again, we're both saying sort of the same thing. I think Brian did a good job scouting those players, but when you get a player on the cheap, if they were obviously that good, someone would likely pay them enough that you wouldn't be able to get them on the cheap.

I do recall that the Giants were quite excited when they found Blanco. I don't remember as much fanfare when they signed Ryan or Andres.

When scouting the margins, the smarter you are, the luckier you're likely to get. In the cases we're discussing, I think both Brian and Farhan did good jobs.

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[rog]

So painting Zaidi as smarter than Sabean is not just wrong, it's also unjustified,

Rog -- There is no doubt in my mind that Farhan is smarter than Brian. That's not a guarantee he'll be a better GM than Brian was, but you're just not going to come across anyone who knows what they're talking about who will say that Brian is as smart as Farhan.




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[klaiggeb]

Again, Roger, we disagree.

Like Randy says, you're infatuated with Zaidi because he's a numbers guy.


I loved Sabean because he was a 'results' guy.

[rog]

Like Randy says, you're infatuated with Zaidi because he's a numbers guy.


Rog -- It didn't matter whether it was Farhan or someone else; the Giants were going to try to catch up with the rest of the baseball world and get a GM with a balance of scouting and analytics. I like Farhan because he's extremely intelligent, appears to be a hard worker, has been in successful situations, seems to command the respect of his fellow employees, and has an excellent reputation among his peers.




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[rog]

By the way, one doesn't have to be very smart himself to see that Farhan is smarter than Brian, who himself is no dummie.

[klaiggeb]

By the way, one doesn't have to be very smart himself to see that Farhan is smarter than Brian, who himself is no dummie.




Are you serious?

Please, Roger, explain 1-How you came to this conclusion and 2-why doesn't one have to be very smart?


And I hate to point this out, but Zaidi has... how many world championships?

Ummmm. None.

Brian has...3.

Want to re think that statement?

[sfgdood]

he doesnt have to Boly because the championships were all due to luck remember?

[rog]

By the way, one doesn't have to be very smart himself to see that Farhan is smarter than Brian, who himself is no dummie.




Are you serious?

Please, Roger, explain 1-How you came to this conclusion and 2-why doesn't one have to be very smart?


Rog -- It's a no-brainer, Boly. When a world-class economist talks of one's brilliance, he's probably reasonably smart.





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[rog]

And I hate to point this out, but Zaidi has... how many world championships?

Ummmm. None.

Brian has...3.

Want to re think that statement?


Rog -- Of course not. Your point is a good one, but it has little to do with whether Farhan or Brian is smarter. If you asked Brian, I'm pretty confident he would tell you that Farhan is smarter.




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[rog]

he doesnt have to Boly because the championships were all due to luck remember?


Rog -- I doubt Boly remembers that, since it isn't what I said. Just stick to the truth, Randy.




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[sfgdood]

Id rather have a dummy that wins than a phd that doesnt

[rog]

Id rather have a dummy that wins than a phd that doesnt


Rog -- Well, duh! And, again, that has nothing to do with whether Farhan or Brian is the smarter.




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[klaiggeb]

Rog -- It's a no-brainer, Boly. When a world-class economist talks of one's brilliance, he's probably reasonably smart.



boly says*** First of all, Rog, what does 'economics' smarts have to do with baseball smarts?

Nothing.

Besides, No one ever said he wasn't smart, rog, but you said he was smarter 'n Sabean.

That's where I take issue with your statement.

Now we're talking 'baseball' smarts.


I have yet to see anything that proves Zaidi is smarter 'n Brian.

As I said, 3 World Championships to none.

And I'd also like to point out that Sabean did it with considerably LESS talent than Zaidi had in LA

[Islandboagie]

Not sure about LESS talent. Despite the labels given to the Giants like "Misfits" and "cockroaches" they had plenty of talent. The difference is the Giants went all the way, the Dodgers fell short.

[rog]

boly says*** First of all, Rog, what does 'economics' smarts have to do with baseball smarts?

Nothing.

Besides, No one ever said he wasn't smart, rog, but you said he was smarter 'n Sabean.

That's where I take issue with your statement.

Now we're talking 'baseball' smarts.


Rog -- Baseball smarts and economic smarts certainly aren't the same, although they're not mutually exclusive either.

But we're talking different things here. Baseball "smarts" is really baseball "knowledge" or "wisdom." Intelligence has something to do with knowledge and wisdom, but one being intelligent, having knowledge and having wisdom are three different things.

When I say that Farhan is smarter than Brian, I'm saying that he's more intelligent. And I believe Brian is plenty smart enough himself to tell us the same thing.




















I said that Farhan is smarter than Brian, and Brian himself would likely tell you the same thing. You're talking baseball "smarts" ("wisdom"), and that's a different thing. If one defines
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