Another toughie for Tyler, but Travis terrific again

[rog]

Tyler Beede started against the White Sox today and gave up a 2-run homer to Alfonso.  The two runs in two innings marked his second straight bad outing after he was arguably the Giants' best pitcher in his first three starts.

Southpaw reliever Travis Bergen replace him and once again was terrific, striking out the side around a walk in his first inning.  I don't know if he's going further in the game.  Bergen has now allowed just two hits and four walks in eight shutout innings this spring, striking  out nine.

What was it again that you said about him, Randy?  Something to the effect that the Blue Jays should have known him best, and yet they allowed him to be drafted?  God gave you a brain as well as a mouth.  Why not use the former and reign back on the latter?

The Giants are once again scoreless thus far.   They don't look like a team that is going go score a lot of runs.

By the way, Bergen did come out for a second inning, allowing a hit while striking out one in getting the first two outs.  So he's now up to 8.2 scoreless innings this spring.

Randy, do you think you were right not to get excited about a reliever who threw only in the low 90's, or do you think the point about his having movement on both his fine breaking ball and his fastball was a good one?  What do you think of the point that Bergen's lack of development due to injury and his lack of that blazing fastball made him a good candidate to try to sneak through the Rule 5 Draft, as opposed to his lack of speed being a reason not to draft him?

With all your "inside" baseball knowledge -- and as a former pitcher yourself -- why don't you understand pitchers like Bergen?  We don't know how it will hold up during the regular season, but I don't believe there is another Rule 5 draftee who is outperforming Travis.

Just what was it that you didn't understand?  It was all layed out for you.

[rog]

Ty Blach came in to get the final out for Bergen that inning.

Ty has pitched pretty well this spring (3.38 ERA), but because he still has an option, he'll likely begin the season in Sacramento. Bergen must be kept up or offered back, and Chris Stratton, Trevor Gott and Steven Okert are out of options. Stratton has pitched well enough, and Gott has been the Giants' best right-handed reliever, so they should stick. Okert has yielded 11 hits and 10 runs (5 earned) in 7 innings, so he'll likely be designated for assignment. I'm sure the Giants would like to send him to Sacramento, but I'm not sure he'll make it by the Orioles.

Among the position players, Alen Hanson is out of options. I thought since he can play both the infield and outfield, the extra roster spot might save him, but that doesn't go into effect until 2020. If the Giants keep 13 pitchers, I can't see Alen beating out Cameron Maybin (or another outfielder the Giants might add), Pablo Sandoval or especially Yangervis Solarte, who looks to be the Giants' top reserve.

[rog]

And Trevor Gott the save with two scoreless innings.

No major moves this off-season, but ideally the little moves will add up. Bergen and Gott have now throw 8.2 scoreless innings each this spring, combining to allow 17 base runners while striking out 21. When pitchers accrue more strikeouts than base runners, they're pitching pretty well.

This is especially important given that two of the Giants' three most tradeable players are relievers. The success of Bergen and Gott could allow one or both to be moved -- a step in the direction of building.

It's only Spring Training, but that's about all we have to go on thus far. We could simply say that we've seen no big moves, so let's simply stay negative. Or we could look at the little moves that appear to be adding up and recognize that the fine reputation Farhan has developed in the industry likely has merit.

Oh, Randy, the guys you wanted traded immediately have been the Giants' top hitters this spring. And of course the top two relievers have been the Rule 5 draftee you put down and the right-handed reliever the Giants Gott whom you simply ignored.

The guy you were high on, Alen Hanson, is showing his true stripes. You keep putting down analytics, but ignoring them leaves you with very little information to base your judgments on, meaning you are usually wrong.

Hey, I know what it's like to make judgments based on feel and what we "see." It's not very comfortable, but at one time it was all I had. Unfortunately our feelings are too often wrong, and what we believe we "see" sometimes is more mirage than reality.

[rog]

Right-hander Nick Vincent was another very nice bullpen pickup. Vincent has hurled seven seasons of 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP relief. This spring he's at 3.60, 1.00. Gott and Vincent are making it far less worrisome that Mark Melancon's arm still doesn't appear to have bounced back from injury.

Let's put this in perspective: If the Giants had spent big money on Gott and Vincent and the duo were pitching this well, we would be taking notice and admitting Farhan might have known what he was doing. But because he got them on the cheap (in great part, certainly, because their reputations were nowhere close to Melancon's when the Giants signed Mark), we're focusing on his not having made big-time moves.

And if he'd signed Bryce Harper, at almost any cost, we would be giving him at least a few props, despite the risk such a signing clearly carried.

In other words, we don't know enough to make an informed judgment, and because of our ignorance and because while Farhan has clearly showed he is both analytics and scouting oriented (including a revamped scouting system), we've focused on his knowledge of analytics -- which we don't trust, primarily because we don't understand them well enough -- we remain skeptical of his abilities. When a far more rational approach is to retain a healthy skepticism, but recognize that a guy the industry (who presumably know more about it than we do) values highly has taken over for the Giants, and while his moves have been mostly under the radar, he's made a lot of moves that likely will have significant impact on the Giants' future.

We might also recognize what he HASN'T done -- add older players to long-term contracts that only mess up the future.

We don't yet properly recognize it, but the Giants have gotten younger, faster, better on defense, and more versatile. All without spending much or tying up big future money. They've revamped their scouting and finally made international signings a high priority. Maybe one of the biggest things they've done is get the players to buy into analytics, giving them an added direction to improvement beyond the mechanical improvements they were already focusing on.

Farhan has brought the Giants into the 21st century. They have gotten by pretty well this century without having done so, but it's clear that their staid approach was catching up with them.

The Giants probably aren't going to be very good this season. But suddenly there seems to be a bit of hope for their future, something they've ignored far too long.