Adam Rank

[sfgdood]

Adam Rank is a football analyst on NFL Network. He was on KNBR yesterday and as a So Cal resident he had some interesting observations:

1. "I live in Southern California which means I don't get to see any Dodgers games on TV (Boly can back this up I think). I watch more Giants games than Dodgers games."

2. "The only time I get to see Kershaw is in the playoffs and I'm all like 'what's the big deal?' I mean every time I see him he's getting lit up."

He was there to discuss the 49ers offseason moves but before the segment the host mentioned the MLB Network top 100 so he was in bewilderment as to why Bumgarner was lower on the list. Naturally he's not a baseball guy but I think maybe lots of sports fans who arent big baseball fans but who watch the playoffs think the same way.

[rog]

Madison is ranked as low as he is because he's really fallen off the past three seasons in a lot of area, particularly in the last two. He's ranked as high as he is because there's some possibility his decline has been injury related and could reverse, and because he has been an excellent pitcher in the past.

[klaiggeb]

And Posey hasn't, Rog?

Posey was ranked at 92, and his past 2 seasons have been not very good, and then, poor.

How did he qualify as a top 100 player?

Reputation, I'm sure, but he's liked.

Bum?

I think that outside of the Giant's family, he's not a popular guy with the media.

[rog]

Buster has most certainly declined, but there are two reasons he's ranked higher than Madison:

First, his decline last season appears more closely related to injury.

Second, he plays a much tougher position and is still ranked in the top two or three catchers. His career hitting has been elite for a catcher, and even last season it was above average.

As for Madison, when one looks beyond his ERA, one sees clear signs of erosion, with cracks beginning even in 2016 -- before his two injuries. When we saw that Madison had injured his pitching shoulder in 2017, weren't we worried if he would ever truly be the same pitcher again? Thus far he hasn't been.

As for Madison's place with the media, they seem to consider him one of the best postseason pitchers in history, so whether he's popular or not, I think he's pretty fairly evaluated.

In 26 days it will have been a decade since I saw Madison and Buster hook up for their first regular season game in organized ball. Back then Madison was an even higher prospect. His career has been outstanding -- but not as great as Buster's.

[klaiggeb]

You keep beating that same drum, Roger, and I still say, let's wait and see how he does now that he's more than 1 1/2 years away from his bike incident and last year's pinky plunk.

If by mid season he hasn't rebounded, then I'll agree.

Until then, all the information you're feeding us is moot.

Sorry

[rog]

You keep beating that same drum, Roger, and I still say, let's wait and see how he does now that he's more than 1 1/2 years away from his bike incident and last year's pinky plunk.

If by mid season he hasn't rebounded, then I'll agree.

Until then, all the information you're feeding us is moot.

Sorry


Rog -- It isn't moot. I'm not saying Madison can't bounce back. The signs aren't good, and as I have pointed out, the signs of decline actually began in 2016, before either injury.

But you appear to be going on in ignorant bliss, which thank goodness Farhan no doubt isn't. We all hope that Madision will bounce back, but let's take a look at swinging strike percentage for example. Madison peaked at 12.5% in 2015. It dropped to 11.5% in 2015, then to 10.2% in 2017 and 9.2% in 2018. Madison is unable to get guys to swing and miss nearly as often as he did in 2015 -- and the decline began the year BEFORE his foolish injury.

Back in 2015 batters swung at 36.5% of his pitchines outside the zone. Last season it fell to 30.8%. He's simply not fooling batters as much. He's easier to pick up. Back in 2015 batters swung and missed on one out of every four swings. Last season that fell to just one out of five. In 2015 they swung and missed on four out of nine swings outside the zone. Last season that fell to just over one out of every three.

In 2015 Madison ranked #13 out of all pitchers who faced 500 or more batters with a heady .271 expected On Base Average. In 2016 that increased to .280, but he still finished #10. By last season he had risen to .320, just 78th. By comparison, Derek Holland was #64 at .313, and Andrew Suarez was #97 at .330.

Madison just isn't the pitcher he was -- and while it has escalated since his injuries, the decline began the year before.

Saying that information is moot is sticking one's head in the sand.

The difference between us here is that you're talking in the terms of 20 years ago, while I'm talking in today's terms.

I understand your point. You're saying there are enough extenuating factors that you aren't yet convinced. That's a questionable interpretation, and clearly one that would be in the minority in MLB. But it isn't absolute that Madison's decline isn't mostly because of injury.

It's just that saying the evidence -- part of the evidence that is preventing the Giants for getting what they want for Madison -- is moot is being ignorant of the situation.

Remember too that your point was that Madison might be like Warren Spahn or Robin Roberts, two pitchers who were able to learn ot pitch as they aged and made the Hall of Fame. And if Madison is Spahnie, I'll apologize for being wrong. But at this point he looks a lot more like Robin. Whereas Spahnie never really declined until he was 43, Robin declined at age 29 -- and it took him until age 35 to truly get it back.

The information isnn't moot, and while it would be fine if you examined it carefully and came to a different conclusion, but were able to point to specifics why you felt that Madison would be different than Robin, that would be fine. But to ignore the facts and call them moot is simply turning a blind eye to the facts.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5152/adam-rank#ixzz5iHXvykoT

[rog]

By the way, it's still Spring Training, so it certainly doesn't mean as much, but Madision hasn't given much indication this spring that he's bounced back. Again, the evidence isn't conclusive. But to simply ignore such a large body of evidence seems foolish.

Have you looked CLOSELY at Robin's record between age 29 and age 35? That's a long period of time.

[klaiggeb]

All I'm saying, Roger, is that he was/is coming off a relatively severe shoulder injury with that bike escapade.

He could have been hurting more than we realized.

Let's wait and see.


Wouldn't you be pushing for the same kind of patience with Buster Posey?

Let's throw out last year's terrible numbers

In the prior 4 his HRs continued to decline, one could argue drastically.

22
19
14
12.

That's not a decline, that's falling off the planet

Now that we throw in his deteriorating hip, and it explains a lot.

I am arguing that Bum could have been experiencing the same thing.

Not saying he is, but he could be.

Let's wait and see.

[rog]

Madison could have been experiencing the effects of injury, but there is no evidence that is the case. There is, on the other hand, evidence that he was declining as early as 2016, which was before the injuries. The decline has accelerated since the injury, so perhaps it's some of each.

So let's suppose it's the shoulder that is causing a fair amount of the problem. What is there to make us believe the shoulder will be coming back? If anything, the broken finger allowed the shoulder to get extra rest.

As we point out, we certainly don't know for sure. But there is circumstantial evidence that at least some of Madison's decline is either unrelated to his injuries or is related to a shoulder injury that he is unlikely to fully recover from.

As for Buster, I have little idea if how much of his power will return, but I expect him to get back into double digit homers at least.

In a way we're both looking at this similarly. Neither of us knows for sure the reason or reasons behind Madison's decline. But I don't think the evidenced is moot. I think what we do know should be considered, and modified by our pointing to what we don't know.

The facts that concern me are:

. Madison's decline began prior to his injuries.

. This is likely a spring where he's working hard to improve things, and so far this spring they've mostly gotten worse.

There is one positive: Madison's velocity increased late last season. One thing that was bothersome though is that his results didn't improve. And so far this spring has been pretty rough. I do like that he's walked only one batter in 12 innings, but his strikeout percentage compared to balls put in play has continued to drop, and giving up 21 hits in just a dozen innings is nearly unfathomable.

I agree that we should wait before making a final judgment. But I think we should also acknowledge that based on what we DO know, there is a significant possibility Madison's career has taken a turn for the worse, and the turn may be somewhat irreversible.

Here is what Fan Graphs wrote: Just a few seasons ago, Bumgarner was one of the elite arms in the game but his skill set is slowly eroding. This worsening can be seen by a two-year decline in his K-BB% (22% to 18% to 12%) with both his strikeouts (10.0 K/9 to 8.6K/9) and walks (2.1 BB/9 to 3.0 BB/9) getting worse. The strikeout decline wasn’t from velocity loss but from his curveball losing some spin, dropping five fewer inches, and seeing it’s swinging strike rate drop from 22% to 12%.

Although Fan Graphs didn't mention it, Madison's biggest drop in fastball velocity came not after his injuries, but between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He threw basically as hard in 2017 and 2018 as he threw in 2016. The injuries didn't cause his velocity drop.

It's possible the finger injury in particular contributed to the loss of spin on his curve ball, but whatever the cause, losing five inches of average drop on a pitcher's curve ball is rather concerning.

As for Buster's power, I don't know how much of it will return after his surgery. I expect him to get back into double digit homers, but beyond that I'm merely guessing.

[klaiggeb]

I'm done with this discussion, Roger, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that you seem set in your opinion and nothing is going to move you off of it.

Which is fine.

I have things about which I feel strongly, too, so I'm going to leave it at that until mid season

Then I may revisit the subject.

[rog]

I will likely continue to keep my opinion that in projecting what may happen in the future we should carefully analyze the facts -- and also make allowances for the things we don't know. What we know here is that Madison has been declining since the 2015 season. What we don't know is how much his injuries has accelerated that decline or how well he'll be able to bounce back from those injuries. We don't know how well he'll be able to change from a relative "thrower" to a relative "pitcher," although we know that his decline has continued even as he threw fastballs on barely one out of three pitches last season.

I'd prefer not to have to bet my life on Madison's season, but if I did have to do so, and I was given 3.50 as the over/under for his ERA, I would have to take the over/under. If I were given 3.75 as the over/under, it would begin to become a tougher choice, but I would still have to go with the over. At 4.00 it becomes a REALLY tough choice for me, but at this very moment I would still have to take the over.

As you know, there can be a lot of luck that goes into an ERA. Did the scorer score it a hit or an error right before the two-out home run? Did the fielder just make or just miss the diving catch? Was the runner at first safe by an inch or out by an inch? Did the umpire miss that 3-2 pitch? Did the reliever who took over with two on and non outs keep both runners from scoring or let them both in?

That's why they have various defense-free ERA predictors. In 2015, Madison's ERA predictors were 2.87, 3.02 and 3.00. Last season they were 3.99, 4.32 and 4.42. It is likely that Madison's decline is more significant than his ERA alone has made it appear. It's possible the decline is better reflected by his 1.01 2015 WHIP rising to 1.24 last season. It's only Spring Training, but so far this spring Madison's ERA is 8.25, and his WHIP is 1.75.

Among the many things I don't know, the two things I'm convinced of here is that Madison has undergone a fairly significant decline the past three seasons, and that he hasn't yet stopped the decline.

Hey, let's hope he's sharp as a finely honed tack his next time out. It's possible. He's still Madison Bumgarner.

[rog]

Estebian Florial, the outfield prospect I was interested in the Giants' getting from the Yankees if they traded Madison, suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right wrist during yesterday's Yankees Spring Training game. The 21-year-old speedster hasn't played above Class A ball, and he hit only .178 in the Arizona Fall League, but his had hit .355 with a .945 OPS this spring prior to the injury.

Florial isn't a future superstar, but he's a potential five tool player whose speed and defense would fit the Giants nicely. Maybe he could be a piece of a deadline trade.

But Madison is going to need to pitch better than I'm expecting in order for the Giants to get a lot for him.

[rog]

Well, orange isn't much of an Irish color, but today's is Madison's day. And if you want a green Giants hat to wear, they have them.

[rog]

We're not the only fans who are higher on Madison than the experts. Fan Graphs has five professional projections for Madison's 2019 season and one by he fans. The professional projections ranged from a 3.74 ERA to 4.10. The fans are forecasting 3.17. The heart projects a very tidy ERA. The mind is less generous.