Randy's Dream Coming True

[rog]

Although he's otherwise been highly patient with the Giants, Randy has made it clear that he wants -- no, expects; no, requires; no, demands -- that the Giants ravage the international market.  In SF Giants.com's article entitled "Giants renewing focus on international market" GM Farhan Zaidi is quoted as saying "It's got to be a huge part of what we do over the next few years."  Although it preceded Farhan's tenure, the Giants signed #2 Caribbean prospect, shortstop Marco Luciano.  Despite never having played in organized ball, Luciano has been rated as high as the Giants' #3 prospect, behind only Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos.

About the international market, Randy was heard to say "After their 2014 World Championship, the Giants had their chance to sign Pablo Sandoval for less than $100 million, and they blew it.  Does anyone truly believe it is coincidence that they haven't come close to a World Championship since?  Yeah, some people are getting excited by this guy Luciano, but how good can he be?  I've never heard of him."

Randy went on to add, "Sure, Zaidi talks about the international market, but talk is cheap.  I'll believe it when I see it.  Heck, I gave up on the Giants in 2014 with more than a quarter of the season left, and see, they've won only one World Championship since.  What have they shown me lately?  How have they done the past five years?"

"They'd be a lot better off if they just got rid of Belt and Panik.  Just eat the contracts and give the guys up.  Addition by subtraction.  Slater and Hansen would be far better.  The Giants might even be able to score 600 runs."

"As for Zaidi, the guy's an ex-Fodger, for crying out loud.  Duck him!"

[rog]

SF Giants.com goes on to add:


Zaidi revamped the Giants' scouting departments by bringing in Zack Minasian and Michael Holmes as the new directors of pro and amateur scouting, respectively, and he said he expects both to assist international scouting director Joe Salermo in evaluating prospects from abroad. J.P. Ricciardi and Craig Weissmann, both of whom have extensive scouting backgrounds, also joined the Giants' front office over the offseason.

"I always think it's the most mind-blowing task in baseball to go scout and evaluate 16-year-olds," Zaidi said. "I do think we're going to use technology more like a lot of organizations are in evaluating players down there. But having experienced sets of eyes is probably the single most important thing from an international scouting standpoint."

As MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez wrote last September, an increasing number of teams are outfitting their international scouting departments with tools like Trackman, which measures metrics such as velocity, spin rates and exit speeds, swing analysis devices and force plates, which track force production and weight distribution. Advanced camera or radar technology from companies like Edgertronic and Rapsodo -- which the Giants have been using this spring -- are also becoming more widespread among the international scouting community.

"I think gathering as many measurables as you can in such an uncertain evaluation environment is critical," Zaidi said. "We're definitely going to invest money in that and make sure that’s kind of part of our scouting protocols down there."

The hope is that by blending newer technologies and traditional scouting, the Giants will be able to unearth a steady stream of Reyes Morontas and Pablo Sandovals in the future. There's already reason for optimism. The Giants' $300,000 spending restriction on the international market ended last year, and they received high marks for their 2018 international class of amateurs, which was headlined by shortstop Marco Luciano and outfielders Jairo Pomares and Luis Matos.

"I've had a chance to see a lot of the kids from the last couple of classes in January at instructs, and I think they brought in some really good talent," Zaidi said. "On the international side in particular is probably where it's the closest balance of scouting and player development, because I think you’re getting players who are more tools than developed when they’re coming in at 16. So whether it's position players or pitchers, I think it's as much of the responsibility of the player development as it is for the scouting department to bring in the talent."

[sfgdood]

We need more than the flapping of gums...we heard the same things from Bobby Evans. I'll be convinced when we actually convince proven talent to come here.

[rog]

We need more than the flapping of gums...we heard the same things from Bobby Evans. I'll be convinced when we actually convince proven talent to come here.


Good point, but I don't believe we've heard: "I always think it's the most mind-blowing task in baseball to go scout and evaluate 16-year-olds. I do think we're going to use technology more like a lot of organizations are in evaluating players down there. But having experienced sets of eyes is probably the single most important thing from an international scouting standpoint."

And I don't think we've heard: "I think gathering as many measurables as you can in such an uncertain evaluation environment is critical. We're definitely going to invest money in that and make sure that’s kind of part of our scouting protocols down there."

And I don't recall hearing: "I've had a chance to see a lot of the kids from the last couple of classes in January at instructs, and I think they brought in some really good talent. On the international side in particular is probably where it's the closest balance of scouting and player development, because I think you’re getting players who are more tools than developed when they’re coming in at 16. So whether it's position players or pitchers, I think it's as much of the responsibility of the player development as it is for the scouting department to bring in the talent."

[sfgdood]

I don't want 16 year olds that might or might not turn out to be something. I want 20-something veterans that are dominant and will be can't miss stars in MLB.

[rog]

I don't want 16 year olds that might or might not turn out to be something. I want 20-something veterans that are dominant and will be can't miss stars in MLB.

Rog -- I understand what you're saying, Randy, but once again I don't think you fathom when and how things change.

When the door to Cuba opened up, a lot of young but somewhat proven players became available. As a group, they were nice players to acquire, since they were more predictable. Not that they were entirely so -- a guy like Yasmany Tomas that many here wanted haven't been able to make the transition -- but they were much more predictable than 16-year-olds, as you mention. That's also why so many more players are being drafted out of college -- older, more experienced, more proven, more predictable.

But a lot of the very best players are so good that they don't last until college, which is more for the mid-range talents and late bloomers. While no one wants to turn away 20-year-olds with their much lower risk, a lot of the superstars of the future will come from the 16-year-old international players and from high school seniors.

EVERYONE wants 20-something veterans who are dominant and will be can't miss stars. But just for fun, tell me which players coming out of college this year make up that group? Since they draft 10th, the Giants hope there are at least 10 of them. But in reality, they aren't.

Let's be honest, Randy, you don't have a clue about most players in their early 20's just coming out of college or even who have played for a year or two in the minors. I think we can put a reasonably high floor on Joey Bart now (It was thought coming out of college that his defense and pitch calling were good enough that he would be an acceptable catcher even if he didn't meet his hitting expectations.), but what about 20-year-old Heliot Ramos? You should be seeing Heliot in about three weeks (I'm planning to go to Stockton to watch him myself.), so perhaps you can give us some ideas. But the reality is that Heliot's ceiling is about as high as Joey's, but his floor is much, much lower.

Now Heliot was drafted out of high school two years ago, and while I have a lot of respect for Don's judgment, he was critical of the pick because Ramos was an athlete more than a ballplayer. So far he's done a decent job of changing that image, and in fact, he's filling out, leading many to believe he won't be as fast a major leaguer as they once thought. But while he's still extremely rough as a hitter, he making progress in that regard, harnessing his power a bit and even being able to go the other way on occasion.

Anyway, the "ready made" international players who are in their early 20's just aren't available very often now. Scouting is a new ballgame, so to speak. Those available 20-somethings are now 16, 17, or if they're really late bloomers, 18.

As for how "easy" it is to find superstars, let's take a look at the 2006, 2007 and 2008 drafts -- the three drafts that formed the foundation of three World Championships in five seasons.

2006 was when it began with Tim Lincecum, whom the Giants drafted 10th. Of the top 10 players in that draft, only Clayton Kershaw (#7 overall) became an enduring superstar. Evan Longoria (#3) and Tim Lincecum started in that direction, but Tim faded after 2011, and Evan unfortunately faded after 2013. No other top 10 picks that season have provided as many as a dozen WAR, and the player picked immediately ahead of Tim never made it past AA.

2007 was the year the Giants should have really made hay. They had five of the first 51 picks. Madison Bumgarner became a star (or a superstar if we count the postseason heavily), but none of the other four amounted to much. Madison was picked #10 overall, but only David Price among the other top 10 players became a true star (and not quite a superstar). Matt Wieters and Mike Moustakas went on to good major league careers.

The Giants picked 5th in 2008, and they got the best of the bunch. Along with Kershaw, Buster is the only one of the 30 players drafted in the top 30 players in those three years likely to make the Hall of Fame. Eric Hosmer and Yonder Alonso turned out to be pretty good players, and Jason Castro was a solid big league catcher.

But the point is that of those 30 players, only two turned out to be clear superstars. Four more turned out to be clear stars. About half of the 30 players turned out to be decent major leaguers.

Two of the 30 players became superstars. The Giants got one of the two. Four other players became stars. The Giants got two of those. In terms of getting top players in the top 10, the Giants fared as well with their three picks as the other teams fared with their 27 picks combined.

A dozen years later, the Giants have top 10 picks two years in a row, and given that they're not particularly good, they might add another year or two to the string. That offers us hope, especially since Heliot Ramos has potential from the previous season, and Joey Bart appears to have been a very strong pick in 2018. But we should remember from 2006, 2007 and 2008 that while the Giants made it look relatively easy, it isn't.



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[sfgdood]

Ummm, ok...but what has all that crap have to do with what I'm saying? Does going after 16 year olds preclude us from going all in on International stars and college players in the draft? We need an "all of the above" approach. And we need a GM and scouting department to be on board with this as if their jobs depended on it, which it SHOULD.

[rog]

And we need a GM and scouting department to be on board with this as if their jobs depended on it, which it SHOULD.


Rog -- Are you paying the slightest bit of attention, Randy? Perhaps it would be worth re-reading all the things I posted that we hadn't seen before.

What I was trying to enlighten you on is that there aren't nearly as many international players in their 20's who are available anymore. The opening of the Cuban curtain may have given us a false sense in that regard. The only player I can think of this past winter was Yusei Kikuchi, whom the Giants pursued hard (He was on my list, even though many here hadn't seen to have heard of him.) but lost when he went to the favorite for Japanese players, the Mariners, and for a lot more money than he was expected to sign for.

I was also trying to show you that your idea that a top 10 draftee should automatically become a star was far from the case. We set ourselves up for frustration when we think things are far easier than they are. Most people who know about the international market are impressed that the Giants got the #2 prospect last summer. Here is what SFGiants.com wrote about shortstop Marco Luciano:

Scouts considered Luciano the best all-around hitter in the 2018 international crop. A Dominican, he has lightning bat speed and surprising strength in a wiry frame that has room to add more muscle. Luciano does a nice job of letting his power come naturally, employing a compact right-handed stroke and using the entire field rather than swinging for the fences.

Luciano offers more than just a bat. He's a quick-twitch athlete with plus arm strength, giving him a chance to remain at shortstop. If Luciano outgrows the position and loses a half-step as he fills out, he still would profile well at third base or in right field.


The best hitter on the international market, and you're still complaining? That's why I'm trying to enlighten you, so you'll hae more knowledge and more realistic expectations. You lack of changing with the game is setting you up for big-time frustration.

And the Giants are in plenty deep even when one understands what is truly going on.




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[sfgdood]

so the best international hitter is languishing in the minors? Somehow that seems doubtful

[rog]

so the best international hitter is languishing in the minors? Somehow that seems doubtful


Rog -- My guess is that the best international hitter is playing in Japan -- but isn't eligible to be signed by a US team. Of the best international hitters who were available last summer, the Giants may have the #1 -- although most felt that Victor Victor Mesa was the #1 prospect, perhaps based on other factors besides hitting.

You're arguing something here that you really don't understand, Randy.

Or perhaps you can name those other international hitters who are considered to be better hitters than Marco Luciano.

We are experiencing a reality problem here. This is one example. That with the impact of steroids on the game having lessened, players are getting "old" sooner is another. The impact of analytics on the game, yet another. The usage of pitchers.

In some ways we're caught back in the 20th century, which doesn't make us much of a wise old fox.





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