Only Buster and Madison among ESPN's Top 100

[rog]

Not surprisingly, only Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were named to ESPN's top 100 MLB players.  Buster ranked #62, and Madison was #71.

ESPN's comment on Buster was:   "If Posey makes a full recovery from the hip surgery that cut short his disappointing 2018 season, we might see a return of power to his bat and a rise back up the rankings.
"

And on Madison:  "One key 2019 projection: ZiPS, Steamer, Bill James and PECOTA all project a career-worst ERA from MadBum, with none better than 3.74."

Both players are coming off injury-riddled seasons.

Ranking in between the two Giants was Andrelton Simmons, whose fielding we've discussed here.  Of Simmons' glove work ESPN said:  "Because the glove has been baseball's best for years, it might be easy to forget he has now had back-to-back seasons with an OPS north of .750."

Earlier this winter we explained why the return the Mariners got for pitcher James Paxton limited any return the Giants could expect for Bumgarner.  Paxton was chosen #43 (28 spots ahead of Madison), even though in Yankee Stadium he'll be pitching in a notorious hitters' park.  "Paxton's swinging-strike rate has increased every year since 2015, up to 14.3 percent last season. If hitters can't catch up to his fastball, the change in stadium might not impact him as much as some fear.
"

Obviously the Giants can't expect to get anything close for the one remaining year of Madison's contract to what the Mariners got for two years of Paxton (three prospects including Justus Sheffield, the #31 overall prospect per mlb.com).

Bumgarner had his second good outing of the spring last night, as the Giants won 4-2.  It should be noted though that even in a good outing, Bumgarner gave up two runs on seven hits including a home run in five innings.  He's just not the old Bum.  I think it is possible he can regenerate some of his old ability if he can successfully navigate the top of the strike zone, but he's just not the same pitcher anymore.  Four strikeouts last night in the five innings.  He was impressive though in pitching out of a bases loaded, no out jam without yielding a run.

I'm curious as to what Boagie thinks of Jeff Samardzija's pitching so far this spring.  It's only spring training, but Jeff looks as if he might be headed toward something approaching the season his 2017 campaign hinted at when he was among the major league leader in several categories.

[Islandboagie]

I havent seen him pitch. Jeff isn't really affected much by the thin air in Arizona because his pitches don't have much movement either way. I imagine the minimal movement on any of his secondary pitches along with his batting practice fastball will again come back to hurt him once the season starts like it has basically his entire career.

[rog]

Jeff's batting practice fastball is at 94.3 mph as a four seamer, 94.3 as a sinker and 91.9 as a cutter. Batters particularly like to hit against it in batting practice because it so closely approximates the speed of some of the fastest starting pitchers in the game.

[rog]

Jeff's expected On Base Average in 2017 ranked #32 among starting pitchers at 3.04, just ahead of Madison Bumgarner's 3.07. That was well behind Bumgarner's .271 of 2015 and .280 of 2016, but easily ahead of Madison's .320 last season. In other words, when he's at his best (also .311 in 2016), Jeff just needs a little more luck.

Samardzija isn't a star, but he's a pretty good pitcher. It would be a bit of a surprise, but it's not at all impossible that Jeff could lead the Giants' starters in ERA this season. If he stays healthy, he'll likely be somewhere in the top three or four.

[Islandboagie]

Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance 

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2019, Jeff Samardzija threw 23,674 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2018, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2018, he relied primarily on his Sinker (93mph), also mixing in a Slider (87mph), Fourseam Fastball (93mph), Curve (78mph), Cutter (91mph) and Splitter (83mph). He also rarely threw a Change (83mph).

BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2018 pitches compared to other RHP:
His sinker generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' sinkers, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has little sinking action compared to a true sinker and has slightly above average velo. His slider has much less depth than expected, has primarily 12-6 movement, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sliders, is much harder than usual and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sliders. His fourseam fastballhas essentially average velo and has slight armside run. His curve has primarily 12-6 movement and generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' curves. His cutter explodes on the hitter, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' cutters, has surprisingly little cutting action and has well above average velo. His splitterresults in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' splitters, has movement that suggests a lot of backspin and has slight armside fade. His change (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 2 of them in 2018) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups and results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups.

[rog]

That's great stuff, Boagie. Where did you find it?

I would like to see Jeff use his curve a bit more, since it is the one pitch he has with a really large speed difference from the rest of his reportoire. The big thing with Jeff though would seem to be making his command more consistent.

Jeff has been more or less an average pitcher over is career, although he pitched quite well in 2014, and his 2017 season gave hope for more. What he hasn't been is the horrible pitcher you portray him to be.

With Tyler Beeded's poor outing last night, I think it's safe to say that while it may not mean anything, so far Jeff has been the pitching star of the Giants' camp -- along with perhaps Randy's favorite, Travis Bergen, and Trevor Gott.

I'm thinking a trade of a reliever for an outfielder is coming.

[Islandboagie]

How have I been inaccurate in the way I've portrayed Samardjiza? In two seasons he could have been considered one of the worst if not the worst starting pitcher in baseball. In the majority of his seasons hes been average, sometimes slightly above, often slightly below. In only one season was he really good, and even then that's suspect because he couldn't convert his starts to wins.

[klaiggeb]

You weren't inaccurate, boagie. Not at all.

He WAS the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

He earned that spot.

[rog]

You weren't inaccurate, boagie. Not at all.

He WAS the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

He earned that spot.


Rog -- I'm trying to maintain my respect for both of you, but you're making it hard.





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5149/buster-madison-espns-top-100#ixzz5iFrrw2Rh

[klaiggeb]

Roger, we disagree with you.

what has that got to do with whether or not you respect us?


And besides, if he was not THE worst, he was certainly in the bottom 10%, which to me, is the same thing.

[rog]

You're right, Boly. I do respect both you and Boagie. But I'm beginning to question your opinion on Jeff Samardzija heavily.

If you're talking about last season, I'm right there with you guys. Jeff was about as bad as there was. But it was also obvious that he was injured and shouldn't even have been pitching.

In 2016 there were 74 qualifiers. Jeff finished above average in almost every category.

In 2017 there were 58 qualifiers. Again Jeff finished above average in almost every category. Most impressively he led all major league pitchers in lowest walk rate allowed, and his K/BB ratio was 4th-best in the majors, behind only Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw.

In 2016 and 2017, Jeff was at WORST an average pitcher. He was clearly not in the worst 10%. That's why I'm so startled about your opinions.

[rog]

Despite a rough first inning, Jeff pitched decently today. Thus far his spring has still been successful.

I don't know how they're going to keep Trevor Gott off the roster.