How Valuable is Defense?

[rog]

We know that pitching, speed and defense play well in San Francisco.  So, just how valuable IS defense?

Let's take a look at three Giants players, probably their best.  Brandon Crawford has been an above-average hitter for his position, and both Brandon Belt and Buster Posey are above-average hitters period.  In addition, all three are considered near the top of their positions defensively.

So let's see how many Wins Above Replacement these three players have earned both offensively and defensively.

Let's start with Brandon Crawford.  While he's been a good hitter for shortstop, he's excelled much more with his glove than  his bat.  He plays a premium position where defense has usually been considered at least as important -- probably more in most cases -- than offense.  Well, Brandon's offensive WAR is 15 wins, and his defensive WAR is 14.  Extremely balanced.

We might expect the other two to have their offensive WAR exceed their defensive WAR.  Let's see how it works out.

Brandon Belt's offensive WAR is 17, and his defensive WAR is zero.  To be honest, I don't think Brandon is getting nearly enough credit for his defense here.  Brandon Crawford threw eight balls in the dirt out of his 19 highlight plays last season.  Crawford had the tougher play on most of them (although a few were also spectacular back-handed scoops on in-between hops), but if Belt doesn't come up with the throws, the plays don't make Crawford's highlight film.

Buster Posey has 36 offensive WAR and 10 on defense.  That sounds about right.  Buster has been a fine fielder, but when he makes the Hall of Fame -- which he likely will -- it will be primarily because of his catcher's bat, not his catcher's glove.

So how valuable do YOU think defense is?

[sfgdood]

or maybe people actually think covering first base is pretty important

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Brandon Belt's offensive WAR is 17, and his defensive WAR is zero.  To be honest, I don't think Brandon is getting nearly enough credit for his defense here. 

Boagie- Numbers are supposed to give facts, so people can take those facts and other factors and draw an opinion. WAR, defensive or offensive, isn't really factual data that we can draw an opinion from. It's already been hypothesized before we get the chance to add our own factors in. They missed something with Belt defensively, what they missed we have not a clue. They're already telling us Belt is an average fielder without any further information given. This is why WAR is flawed. I know Belt is better than average because I've watched him for the last 9 years.

[sfgdood]

I keep hearing how great a fielder Belt is but I'm not seeing it. After 9 years he still isn't able to judge well when to go after a ground ball far to his right and when not to. His ball scooping skills are just average and his mental focus is pretty krokus.

[rog]

I think Brandon's forte is digging balls out of the dirt, and it doesn't appear to me that dWAR is measuring that. I think it is measuring just ground balls, line drives and pop ups, which I think Brandon is good one but not spectacular.

I think Brandon is particularly good at digging balls out of the dirt, and his big frame allows him to stretch quite a distance up and sideways, so his effective target for throws is huge.

Even bad first basemen dig a lot of throws out of the dirt (let's not forget they're big leaguers), but Brandon appears to be one of the best.

As you know, my belief is that The Fielding Bible does the best of the awards at evaluating fielding. It has placed Brandon second each of the past three seasons, after he finished fourth in 2018. Given that the same first baseman didn't finish first ahead of him in each of those three seasons, one could argue that Brandon has been the best defensive first baseman in baseball the past few years. Matt Olson was the player who finished ahead of Brandon in 2018.

I think Joe Panik's defense has been overrated a bit, and neither he nor Evan Longoria are as good as they once were, but the Giants' infield defense is a strong point. Belt has kept up his performance the best as all have aged, no doubt in part because most of his plays don't involve much mobility.

Belt still seems to be at the top of his defensive game, Panik has lost 10 pounds and regained mobility, Evan Longoria finished last season strong defensively, and I would be surprised if Brandon Crawford doesn't bounce back from a little bit of a step back last season. The infield defense appears to be pretty good.

The outfield defense appears to be much stronger this season, and while Posey isn't what he once was, he's still good behind the plate -- and might be even better this season after his surgery.

The defense appears improved, as does the pitching. As for the hitting, well, it couldn't get much worse, so it should be improved as well, with several players being bounce back candidates, and Mac Williamson being at least a long shot candidate for a breakout season.

It is tough for the Giants to add power, but they're further emphasizing getting on base. Which means making fewer outs. Which could well lead to more run scoring.

The Giants' two biggest start this spring just might be Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Beede, who might have been the Giants' two most disappointing pitchers last spring. Jeff showed some strong signs in 2027 before essentially losing last season to injury, and Tyler has learned from the influx of data into the organization, so hopefully their gains are at least in part real, and not merely Spring Training imagination figments. Both pitchers throw HARD, so refinement on their parts could pay significant dividends.

Working out of the bullpen, Beede's OPS against is a miniscule .310, while lefty out of the pen Travis Bergen has limited hitters to just a .317 OPS himself. These are spectacular statistics thus far.

If healthy, Samardzija was of course a shoo-in starter. Beede has options and will likely go back to Sacramento, where the Giants will hope that he can be their 2019 counterpart to the Dodgers' Travis Buehler in 2018, a pitcher who can come up from the minors and dominate. Given Beede's up-and-down history, just being consistently effective would be plenty, but so far this spring he's been a revelation, as he took the new analytics he was exposed to to heart.

Bergen looks to be the likely third southpaw out of the bullpen, likely beating out Steven Okert for that role (although I'm not sure Okert has options). Bergen must be kept in the majors or offered back to the Blue Jays for just $50,000.

Assuming a healthy season from Mark Melancon, the bullpen looks promising. Thus far this spring though, Melancon has been awful. Which is too bad. If he could regain some of his pre-injury ability, he might be tradeable even at his high salary. (The Giants would likely have to eat some of it.)

Reyes Moronta has added a change up and is even being discussed as a closer. Along with Will Smith, he was REALLY good last season. REALLY good -- as in one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the entire big leagues. Reyes ranked #15 out of all major league pitchers in lowest expected On Base Average (a measure of overall hitting).

Tony Watson ranked 32nd in xOBA, with Sam Dyson #70 and Dereck Rodriguez #115.

That's based on at least 250 batters faced. Will Smith faced only 210 batters because he missed the early part of the 2018 season to injury -- and didn't have to face many hitters to get outs once he returned. If we lower the threshold to 200 batters faced, Will ranked #3 overall, behind only Jose Leclerc and Jose Diaz. Leclerc took over as the Rangers' closer late in the season, and Diaz led the majors with 57 saves.

[sfgdood]

I disagree that Belt digs balls all that great. The short hop digs are a lot easier and he does that well enough but on the long hops he is average at best.

[rog]

I disagree that Belt digs balls all that great. The short hop digs are a lot easier and he does that well enough but on the long hops he is average at best.


Rog -- I think Brandon has long been average or above on scoops, and the past few seasons he seems to have refined his craft further.




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[rog]

or maybe people actually think covering first base is pretty important

Rog -- My sense is that the most fundamental tenet of playing first base is to cover the base. On the other hand, a fundamental tenet of evaluation is to consider more than one event.

You seem sadly fixated on this play. You also badly underrate Brandon, at least compared to the consensus of the baseball world. Time to get a grip on reality and regain your objectivity.




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