Lester Likes Madison, but not Sure about Logic

[rog]

Jon Lester is clearly against the use of the Opener and was glad to hear Madison Bumgarner make similar comments.  Jon, who I would say is more open to change than a lot of major leaguers, was good enough to use none other than Lebron as an example of why.  From Fan Graphs:



Count Jon Lester among those who eschew the idea of an opener. When I asked him if he could embrace working innings 3-9 instead of 1-7 — he’d be on the mound for the final out rather than having someone else finish the job — the veteran hurler reacted almost as though insulted. His response was prefaced by a dismissive snort.



“There’s a reason it says ‘starter’ before my name,” Lester said outside the Cubs spring training clubhouse. “Plain and simple. I’m a starter. I get paid to start. I get paid to throw innings. I loved what Bum said, even though he came back and said he was kidding around.”



Lester was, of course, referring to Madison Bumgarner having told reporters that he would be “walking right out of the ballpark” if the Giants dared to use an opener in one of his scheduled starts.



The 35-year-old southpaw concluded his straight-shooting stance with a basketball analogy.



“You’re not going to not start LeBron James because you want him at the end of the game,” said Lester. “You’re going to put him in to start the game, and you’re going to have him in at the end of the game. If we’re fortunate enough to go that long, great. If not, that’s why we pay our closers. I just… yeah.”


Here is the thing Lester ignored even though he knew it:  In basketball, a player can be taken out of the game, but is still allowed to return at the next stoppage of the clock.  Thus it is possible to use James as both a "starter" and a "closer," invalidating the comparison.  If the Lakers had a mutually exclusive choice between having him start the game or finish it, they would have him begin he game on the bench.

It seems highly unlikely that an Opener will ever be used for Lester, but he'd like to be able to both start and finish the game.  Trouble is, he's done so only once in his last 67 starts, averaging well under six innings per outing during that time.  At this stage of Jon's career, he might benefit from having an Opener likely pitch better over the first two innings than he would have, try to get all the way through the 3rd through 8th innings himself (He made it through six full innings in just over half his starts last season), then give way to the closer, who would likely pitch the 9th inning better than Jon himself.

It wouldn't be surprising to see an ERA decline of a run or more this season, but as of last season Lester was still a good pitcher.  He appears to have had a fair amount of luck in his 3.32 ERA, but he still posted it.  But as Fan Graphs says in evaluating him for fantasy owners in 2019, " Don’t be the owner holding him when the bottom falls completely out."

Jon Lester has been quite a signing for the Cubs thus far.  But it appears he's fast approaching the portion of his contract where they will wish they had another pitcher.  The good news for them is that they're on the hook for only $47.5 million over the next two seasons.  They do have a $10 million buyout for 2021 -- or they could pay him $25 million to pitch the season.

I'm predicting a buyout.

Here's a fun thing to think about:  The Cubs owe Lester a minimum of $57.5 million.  The Giants owe Evan Longoria a minimum of a net $62 million.  Lester would make the minimum over two seasons, while Longoria would make the minimum over twice that period.  Which player will be worth the most to his team?

I'll put my money on Evan.  He's been worth a dozen wins over the past four seasons, while Jon has been worth only 4 wins the past two.  As much as I would like to see the Giants get rid of Evan, I think the remainder of Lester's contract may be worse than the net remainder (The Rays are paying $11 million) of the balance of Evan's pact.

Based solely on last season's results, we wouldn't think so, but if anyone wants to place a gentlemen's bet on Jon, I'll take Evan for openers.

[rog]

There was another comment in Fan Graphs' review of Lester that pointed out why it may be tough for the Giants to get as much for Madison Bumgarner as they'd like. The comment? "Why gamble on downtrending pitchers?" (Fan Graphs then gave Jeff Zimmermann as an example.)

About Madison they said: "Bumgarner has been showing some signs of decline and he needs to halt this trend."

Going back to Lester, in an article at the end of last season titled "What Jon Lester has left," Fan Graphs wrote that in the final month of last season Lester slowed his pitching pace and began pitching inside more to right-handed hitters. He posted a 1.52 ERA in September. He posted a 1.50 ERA in his only postseason outing. Temporarily, at least, he figured something out.

So I'm going to reverse myself on Jon and Evan. I'll give Jon an even chance of providing more in the next two seasons than Evan does over the next four. One thing about him, he's a smart pitcher who has bounced back strongly before.

Returning again to Bumgarner, the last time an article was written about Madison in Fan Graphs, it was written by the guy who just left to join the Rays. That article was entitled "Madison Bumgarner Won't Fetch the Giant that Much." Jeff Zimmerman wrote " Perhaps he’ll be able to recover some of his losses (of stuff), but trade partners wouldn’t agree to a trade on the basis of hopeful speculation. Assuming a trade decision is eventually made, though, it’s not going to fully re-stock the Giants’ system. Not unless the Giants wait, and Bumgarner rebounds. For the moment, he just isn’t that pitcher (who can still bring the type of return to stock the Giants' system)."

If Zimmerman has much impact in Tampa Bay (and as the new guy, he likely won't for a while), we can guess that the Rays won't be the team to acquire Madison. Zimmerman showed graphically how Madison's swinging strike rate has fallen by over a third the past three seasons, even as the major league swinging strike rate overall rose by over 10%.

I see one hope for Madison. He's already cut back on his fastball usage in order to diversify his offerings, but despite his height, he has a relatively low release point. He may be able to tailor his fastball by throwing it higher in the zone so that it defeats the higher-angle swings of today. That's a weapon he could use, and I'll bet it's been mentioned to him. I can't recall if he used that tactic in his last outing, but I believe he did strike out five batters in just three innings. Unless I'm mixing him up with someone else.

That's one hope for the Giants in 2019. Teams are working with the own players, trying to improve them, as opposed to simply adding new assets. Adding assets is great, but so is improving the ones you already have. Perhaps Madison is getting information that will help him make the transition he clearly needs to make if he is to continue his career as a strong #1 starter.

Perhaps Lester made adjustments in September that will stick and allow him to pitch a good 2019. And perhaps Madison is now making the adjustments that will help him turn it around in 2019.

Let's watch Madison closely the next time he pitches on TV and see if he's taking advantage of his fastball up in the zone. I wish I still had his last start recorded. Anyone remember seeing him take advantage of his fastball up in the zone?

[rog]

After Jesse Winker's lead-off home run, didn't Nick Senzel strike out on a high fastball? Or was it a breaking ball?

I hope we can remember more about Madison's outing with respect to his usage of high fastballs. I think it was a fastball that Winker hit out to left center, but IIRC Madison didn't get it up enough, and I don't think it would have gone out at Oracle anyway.

Look out for Winker. He was really coming on strongly at the plate last season when he suffered a season-ending injury. Meanwhile, Senzel is a shortstop/third baseman who was perhaps going to be given a look at second base. But now they're hoping he can take over in center for Billy Hamilton. He didn't look too good when Buster Posey's bloop single fell in front of him and to his left, but he's a very good athlete, so he may be able to make the adjustment. Remember back in his rookie season when shortstop Trea Turner of the Nationals moved to center to find playing time, and did a pretty decent job? Senzel doesn't have Turner's speed though.

Aside from the Phillies, the Reds might be the most improved team around -- with a lot of it coming from the players the Dodgers gave them, as Gary mentioned. Look for former Giant Casilla to have a fine season for them on the mound. Much was expected from him last season, but he got off to a horrible start -- then was very, very good the second half.