More from Bryan Murphy

[klaiggeb]

Once again, I couldn't have said it better myself, and it sums up what Randy and I've been saying all along about GM's and other stats geeks

I don’t mean to sound alarmist here, but have you stopped to think about the human beings who occupy front offices these days? They’re not competitors, they’re risk managers. Front offices have more in common with an insurance company than a dugout. They’re not acting rationally in the context of the theater in which they’re acting.

The only people excited about this would be other sabermetric geeks who can't see past the numbers.

No experience, all theory and bottom line.

[rog]

I'm not sure who wrote the stuff in brown print, but one should stop and think about it.


"They're not competitors, they're risk managers." -- Are these two mutually exclusive? No, of course they're not. Are we now saying that teams like the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs aren't competitors? They're among the teams doing the best competiing.

What gets me is the mindlessness that goes into this type of thing. I don't know who wrote what Boly cited here, and perhaps it's someone I respect, but the comment itself is mindless. I have posted a list of teams who are said to be "all in" on analytics. The list encompassed the top teams in the game.

To me, the comment sounds like one that sprung out of frustration, not logic. They two simply aren't mutually exclusive, and in fact a positive correlation can be shown between the two.

We've talked about irresponsible writing, and I would say this is both irresponsible writing and irresponsible reading. Both the reader and the writer should think things through.

[rog]

Front offices have more in common with an insurance company than a dugout. They’re not acting rationally in the context of the theater in which they’re acting.


Rog -- Although I understand where it comes from and understand the hyperbole involved, I don't think the first sentence is true. Even the most analytically oriented teams have a ton of scouts around, and the front offices talk to the dugout personnel almost every day.

As for acting rationally in the context of the theater in which they're acting, their theater is to make the best personnel decisions they can make, and there is a correlation between the "all in" analytic front offices and both competitiveness and World Championships.

I believe I just realized the Giants' place in history. I hadn't thought of it, but the 2010 to 2014 Giants will likely go down in history for a long time -- if not forever -- as the last maor league team to have a significant run without using analytics to a significant degree.

You know, these may be the best three paragraphs I've ever written here. Certainly the third paragraph is something I've never seen before and hadn't thought of specifically until now. What I wrote was highly fact-based, and I even made my three statements with what was for me the briefest of brevities.





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5116/more-bryan-murphy?page=1#ixzz5gwPvvEWr

[klaiggeb]

I thought "risk managers" describes them perfectly.

You disagree.

Okay.

[rog]

I think you feel "risk manager" is a negative term for a general manager. It isn't. Risk management is an important aspect of each of our lives -- and each of our jobs.

We all got excited about the possibility of signing Bryce Harper, but did we truly complete our risk management assessment? I would still have loved to see the Giants sign him -- given the direness of their present position -- but the guy was loaded with risk. He heavily embodied the high risk/high reward principle, kind of like Heliot Ramos now does at a much lower level. Except that Bryce has more ELEMENTS of risk than Heliot does.

If we don't understand that risk management is an important part of a GM's job, we don't understand being a general manager.

[rog]

Do we think risk management should have been an important part of deciding whether to sign Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija or Mark Melancon? Of deciding whether to trade for Evan Longoria?

[rog]

Again, risk management isn't mutually exclusive with being a competitor. In fact, if a GM is truly interested in competing, risk management needs to be an important part of his decisions. Being a risk manager isn't a negative.