My fear..

[klaiggeb]

This is excerpt from an article on the Giant website.

It is precisely what I fear most will happen:

...if all goes well in terms of health and performance — is a bunch of trades. Farhan Zaidi will flip a good number of these arms for prospects, names you’ve never even heard of and and players you won’t see in a Giants uniform — if you ever see them at all — for at least a couple of years. That’s the type of maneuvering the organization has shied away from this century, and for the most part, you’d have to say that it mostly worked out for them, but if they’re to engineer a quick turnaround, a fresh approach is required.

I couldn't have written it or said it better myself.

[rog]

I'm confused, Boly. So you DON'T want a rebuild? Am I misunderstanding you here?

[klaiggeb]

I do want to rebuild.

Remember, Randy and I wanted to blow it up and start over.

Look closely at what the article said:



Farhan Zaidi will flip a good number of these arms for prospects, names you’ve never even heard of and and players you won’t see in a Giants uniform — if you ever see them at all — for at least a couple of years.



How you confused what that says, with what I want is confusing to me.

How many times have you heard me complain that Zaidi is shopping at the Dollar Store?

A lot.

The players he's acquiring are mostly never was's and never will be's.

He claims he's going after depth.

Really?

Guys no one wants?

That's depth?

He got luck with Max Muncey.

Okay, that's one.

The guys HE'S picking up aren't power guys or power potential guys.

So what's his plan?

Flip a coin and hope to get lucky?

That's what it looks like to me, and I'm surprised you don't see that.


I simply cannot and will not believe that there are teams out there that wouldn't beg for a guy like Bum, and would give up good prospects to get him.

Now I don't want to trade Bum, I've said that, but he would get us a lot.

A lot more than you think.

Same with Crawford.

But I go back to what he said:

He doesn't want to rebuild.

He believes we can compete now.


You've picked your side, Roger, his.

I've picked mine.

Not on his.

[rog]

Farhan Zaidi will flip a good number of these arms for prospects, names you’ve never even heard of and and players you won’t see in a Giants uniform — if you ever see them at all — for at least a couple of years.


Rog -- I interpret the above as follows:

. The Giants are going to trade some of their present pitchers. That seems to provide perhaps the best combination of value and tradeability of the areas on the roster, so I'm for that. Aren't you?

. They'll be traded for prospects, which means that the Giants will get younger. I like that idea. Don't you?

. The prospects are guys the average fan hasn't heard of, and guys who may in fact not even make it and ever be known to the average fan. That says to me that they're likely to be on the young side for prospects and be guys with higher ceilings but also with higher risk. If the Giants are building for the future, I'm much rather have prospects with higher potential and as a risk manager (had to sneak that in!) would be willing to accept higher risk and a later arrival date. If you want to rebuild for the future, isn't that what you want to do?


Do you see now that what Murphy was saying? And doesn't that sound like what the Giants should do?




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[rog]

How many times have you heard me complain that Zaidi is shopping at the Dollar Store?

A lot.

The players he's acquiring are mostly never was's and never will be's.


Rog -- But that's not what Murphy said, although he did admit that some of the prospects would be far enough away and carry enough risk that the average fan would never know about them.

Remember when the Giants traded Eduardo Nunez for what IIRC you felt at the time was next to nothing? Turns out they got a low-ceiling/low risk pitcher in Shaun Anderson, who may be ready to join the Giants' rotation if needed this season. And they got the guy I liked -- a 17-year-old strikeout, ground ball pitcher in Gregory Santos. It's possible neither pitcher will help the Giants much. It's also possible that Anderson will productively fill a bottom-of-the-rotation spot and Santos will become at least a middle-of-the-rotation stalwart. It's likely that if healthy, both pitchers will at the very least make a bullpen contribution, which Anderson could likely do immediately if so tasked.

I think you prematurely judged the Nunez trade, and I believe you're judging the Murphy "trades" before they ever happen. I think you judged the Murphy "trades" without understanding what Murphy said would happen in them.

Am I off base here?





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[rog]

He claims he's going after depth.

Really?

Guys no one wants?

That's depth?



Rog -- Isn't the key to finding depth being able to find it on the cheap? From guys who are under-appreciated by their present employers? From guys you are better able to judge than others might be able to? From players who by way of speed and defense might be better able to fit your circumstance than the one in which they were previously?

No question Farhan could have improved the Giants' depth by signing the proven Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez can play just about everywhere. But I don't think you wanted the Giants to sign him -- particularly for a period of years.

We don't know enough yet to know how much Farhan has improved the Giants' depth. What we do know though is that he hasn't locked the Giants up long term in doing so.

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[rog]

He got luck with Max Muncey.


Rog -- Boly, you know I love you. But do you know how aggravating it is when you write that he got lucky with Max Muncy without truly knowing if he got lucky or not and while for the umpteenth time not even spelling the guy's name right?

I suspect Farhan DID get lucky to some degree with Muncy. But he did his homework and worked hard, and guys who do that are more likely to get lucky than you or I.

[rog]

I simply cannot and will not believe that there are teams out there that wouldn't beg for a guy like Bum, and would give up good prospects to get him.


Rog -- Then why haven't they done so?

Now, I'll admit that we don't know what the Giants have been offered for Bumgarner, but we do have a pretty good idea that the Brewers didn't offer any of the three young pitchers the Giants insisted be included in a deal for Madison. We do know that those who understand valuing players based on their cost and the length of their team control have stated the belief that the Giants just can't get that much for Madison now -- although adding that they might be able to at the deadline if Madison has a good start to the 2019 season. Apparently those guys are also risk managers, since they also explain the risk the Giants face that Madison could continue to slide, perhaps even more noticeably, and that his trade value could erode further as the injury excuse diminishes and the time of team control decreases.

Which players do you think the Giants could get for Madison? Would that be a good deal for the Giants? Would it also make sense for the trading team?




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[rog]

Same with Crawford.


Rog -- There are clear obstacles to trading Brandon:

. The biggest is that he's a lifelong Giants fan who likely highly values his full no-trade contract.

. He's considered to be an average or slightly above average shortstop in a field of shortstops who are generally younger than he and who are on the rise rather than the decline.

. He isn't underpaid, meaning a team acquiring him isn't getting a big salary bargain.

. A LOT of teams are rebuilding. They aren't likely to want an aging veteran such as Brandon.

. The contending teams for the most part have good shortstops already in place.

. Who would replace Brandon? It's not as if they have a topnotch prospect who is being held back by Brandon.


Which are the teams that you think would benefit from trading for Brandon? That would be the starting point for trying to find a deal.

[rog]

But I go back to what he said:

He doesn't want to rebuild.

He believes we can compete now.


Rog -- I suspect he had has doubts about 2019 all along. I also think he has a lot of confidence in his approach. As time went by, he seems to have realized more and more that without a kick start from someone like Bryce Harper the Giants were unlikely to compete. That is likely the reason he was the person who according to Larry Baer put on the biggest push for Bryce.

You seem to be forgetting that bright guys change their minds as facts change and/or as they learn more.


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[Islandboagie]

Rog- Now, I'll admit that we don't know what the Giants have been offered for Bumgarner, but we do have a pretty good idea that the Brewers didn't offer any of the three young pitchers the Giants insisted be included in a deal for Madison.

Boagie- The report I saw said that the Giants insisted any of those three pitchers be included in a package deal. That doesn't mean none of those pitchers names were offered. It means the package as a whole wasn't good enough for the Giants to trade Bumgarner.

[klaiggeb]

Rog, Muncey had a career that was going no where.

He'd had shots and wasn't successful.

Thus, he got lucky.

[rog]

I hoped you noticed I posted the following, Boly:

"I suspect Farhan DID get lucky to some degree with Muncy. But he did his homework and worked hard, and guys who do that are more likely to get luckier than you or I."

I also think Brian Sabean got a bit lucky with Jeff Kent, but he traded for solid prospects that he likely had scouted himself personally. He did the work, and he likely got a bit lucky.

Same with Farhan. Guys who put in the work generally get luckier more often than those who don't.

I'm not the one who gave Farhan his fine reputation within the industry, Boly. I merely note it, since it seems you either aren't aware of his reputation or aren't giving it enough credence.

In the long run it's his actions, not his reputation, that will determine how successful Farhan is. For now though without very specific and valid reasons it seems foolish to go against those in the industry who know more than we.

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[rog]

Rog- Now, I'll admit that we don't know what the Giants have been offered for Bumgarner, but we do have a pretty good idea that the Brewers didn't offer any of the three young pitchers the Giants insisted be included in a deal for Madison.

Boagie- The report I saw said that the Giants insisted any of those three pitchers be included in a package deal. That doesn't mean none of those pitchers names were offered. It means the package as a whole wasn't good enough for the Giants to trade Bumgarner.


Rog -- You are correct, Boagie. I suspect that if the Giants had been offered what you and Boly think Madison is worth, the deal would already be done, but I don't know that for a fact. It makes logical sense, but I can't know it for sure. I highly suspect though that if the Brewers and Giants had agreed on a center piece to come to the Giants, they could have gotten things worked out. One of the three pitchers the Giants demanded had a 5.15 ERA in AAA, although he did perform well in relief once in the majors.

Madison's value is limited by his one year of team control and the feeling in the industry that he is no longer the pitcher he once was. They say actions speak louder than words, and Madison himself indicated he was no longer the same pitcher, as barely one in three of his pitches last season was a fastball. Clearly Madison doubted that his fastball was good enough to throw more.

Madison's Fielding Independent ERA fell from 2.87 in 2015 to 3.95 in 2017 and 3.99 last year. His ERA likely will follow that trend, as is usually the case with pitchers.

Right now GM's have more reason to be confident in James Paxton than in Madison. In addition, Madison's comparative value is further reduced because he has only one remaining year of team control compared to Paxton's two. The Mariners got their #1, #11 and #16 prospects for Paxton. Clearly the Giants should expect far less for Madison.




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